Economy

By Uzair Adam Imam

The Federal Government has said that the adverse effects of the war in Ukraine and the ongoing security challenge in Nigeria have contributed to the aggravation of the fragile economic situation in the country.

At the start of the war, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned that the world economy would pay a “hefty price” for the war in Ukraine, encompassing weaker growth, stronger inflation and potentially long-lasting damage to supply chains.

In Nigeria, inflation is already hitting living standards and reducing consumer spending as business owners become less optimistic about production.

The Minister of State, Budget and National Planning, Prince Clem Ikande Agba, disclosed this Tuesday at the 63rd National Conference of Nigerian Economic Society. 

The 3-day conference, which started Tuesday at the Maryam Abacha American University of Nigeria, Kano, was themed “Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Response for Economic Recovery in Nigeria”.

The Minister, represented by the Director Macro Economic, Mr Felix Okonkwo, said fiscal discipline is what Nigeria needs to build a stable and inclusive economy.

Agba stated that the Federal Government is focused on addressing the revenue issues, which it considers essential to the economic and financial health of the country.

He added that insufficient revenue was why Nigeria could not contain its fiscal deficit after the recession, meaning that the country’s capacity to continue to support and raise capital expenditure has not been improved.

He said, “The adverse effect of the War in Ukraine, insecurity, global food crisis, oil theft in the Niger Delta, rising energy prices, massive depreciation of the naira exchange rate, high fuel subsidy and increasing inflation as well as insufficient fiscal buffer aggravated the fragile economic situation in the country.”

The chairman of the occasion, Shamsuddeen Usman, said the conference aimed at providing possible ways to restore the country’s economic stability through enhancing fiscal policies.

The President of the Nigerian Economic Society, Prof. Umma Jalingo, who organized the event, said the association was founded three years before Nigeria’s independence and was aimed at enhancing the country’s economy.

By MA Iliasu

More than seventy years ago, the American or rather the undeniably global economist for all that he has influenced with his precise textbook, Paul A. Samuelson, wrote an article titled “Intellectuals”. He uncovered the fallacies of the established Intellectuals of the American society. To him, how they author books that only their friends and students can read, venture discourses only they can engage in, and prescribe policies that have zero respect for emotions, feelings, cultural intelligence and any mortal touch that may agree with common decency epitomises their names: “The Intellectuals”.

In Nigeria, we’re not short of them. Currently, we’re in an international political menace in which Russia put efforts to decimate Ukraine. The moral, ethical, physical, metaphysical, philosophical, epistemological, and even the economic motives and justifications flow freely on the internet. I will not tell you my own, but I’m relaxed knowing about others’. However, “The Intellectuals” are only interested in prescribing books and journal articles, publishing eccentric articles with dense grammar to vividly show they’re not for public consumption but only produced to satisfy the demand of their inner circle. Meanwhile, they bastardise, thus urging the public to take every piece of information on the conflict they may get from the BBC, VOA or CNN with a pinch of salt like the tyrannical antisocials they’re, despite not giving the public any alternative. That’s “an intellectual” for you.

To be precise, this is not a musing on Russia and Ukraine. It’s about the nerve-racking fuel scarcity that has bamboozled the Nigerian federation over the previous month and current. The one started with the speculation of the economically controversial subsidy removal that triggered the ever wicked economic class into succumbing to their Animal Spirit through hoarding. After all, which non-God-fearing mogul would allow the chance to double his revenue off the oppressed lower class without any effort? There’s none!

Discussions on the Nigerian political economy, especially outside university classrooms, are more dominated by the fake, impractical ideal of national consciousness and patriotism. And it takes place even though at no point does the term “Nigeria” ever mean the same to everybody; the poor wanderers, the profit makers, capitalist exploiters and the political hoodwinkers. And still, the Intellectuals want to build our economic skeleton upon that nonexistent psychological pillar. Is it possible?

Nigerians are the brilliant species who have gained relevance by declaring “Economics nothing short of common sense”. And that’s why they despise efficiency and efficacy despite their horrible love for eccentricity. But, if that’s not the case, how do you justify persuading people to buy what’s expensive when what’s cheap and of superior quality is available?

Through patriotism, they say. After all, people should use their hard-earned money to fund the ego of the anti-logic system of governance. For in the future, they say, there’ll be wonders. Meanwhile, the only wonders we’ll ever see is the one that reflects on the ironic, unethical, inefficient and anti-liberal, unreasonably orthodox, the often mix of the two, logic of the Nigerian Intellectuals that I’ll disclose below:

“Let’s stop importing fuel till we achieve self-sufficiency. That should be our way. A country with the mineral muscles of Nigeria should not be importing fuel. Let that be our moral standard. Let’s endure all the suffering for now. Let’s be patriotic. We’ll be alright shortly afterwards.” – isn’t this a lovely musing?

Do you disagree? Yes, I know you do. You’re an economist! What I want to ask is, why do you agree with the same pattern of thinking and logic when it’s used on Rice? – One reason:

Fuel scarcity & inflation is pressing every aspect of my society, up to the bottom, thus the outrage. And mostly the rich, who have limousines and Corollas to drive home from work and to the wedding evenings at the city parks, to power gigantic generators for their freezers and air-conditioners, and to calm their nerves from the so-called working stress. Then the industrialists who power their workshops and trade zones. And the artisans who harness all the profits. And that’s why nobody wants to hear anything long English Language, solution or no!

But rice scarcity & inflation, that one only press the poor, the bottom tier. That’s why every time we speak, they quote the models of David Ricardo & Keynes. That’s the only time they remember Ricardo and his comparative advantage or Keynes and his misunderstood, poorly-implemented government intervention. That’s the only time they want to disagree with Audu Ogbeh. So maybe Economics is more than common sense, after all. Thus they even go deeper into the mathematical models of Euler and Nash.

Everybody is acknowledging the need for government to take off its hands from fuel because it’s unfriendly for the lords at the top and the intellectuals at the middle, which is a policy prescription that sanity has advocated forever. But nobody wants to acknowledge the need for government to take its hands off the food industry, perhaps because the top dogs eat what they want from wherever they want, while it’s the bottom tier servants of God that are dying of hunger and historical inflation.

But why the lack of consistency?

Confusion is the reason, which can also disclose the lack of coherence along with discussions of such relevance. In Nigeria today, you’ll see an acclaimed intellectual who’ll die for his liberal romanticism supporting the economics of border closure. It makes me curious how possible it’s for Friedrich Hayek and Paul Samuelson to eat at the same table without arguing? Well, I think that’s the probability of the logic being consistent & cogent. Likewise, the essential orthodox wondering around the idea of ‘unpolice-able’ modern technology despite every magnum opus of their scholarly background suggesting otherwise.

The problem of the American society we love to imitate when it suits us (to quote Chinua Achebe) is that they believe in economics too much. But, interestingly, in Nigeria, they don’t believe in economics at all. And that’s why both are paying the price of extremism while hiding behind Keynesianism. In their experience, greed has taken over everything. But in our own, the economy has become a prison. And the wardens holding the keys are the intellectuals who will rationalise anything.

MA Iliasu wrote from Kano via muhada102@gmail.com.

By Tijjani Ahmad

As a state that accommodates one out of every ten people living in the country, Kano has many competitive advantages over other states regarding development at the sub-national level. Looking at how economies worldwide are competing to finance development, mainly using domestic resources mobilisation, the easiest for the state is to leverage on its abundance of human resources.

As a governor of the state for the second time from 2011 to 2015, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso wanted to make Kano a knowledge-based economy by providing necessary education and skills, thereby making a large portion of the state’s economic growth and employment from knowledge-intensive activities. The governor understood how knowledge spurs more rapid growth than any other resources; therefore, he projected the potential of the state to use its population of teeming youth as a comparative advantage.

His revolution started with efforts to bridge the workforce gap in tertiary institutions by sponsoring more than 2,500 postgraduates and undergraduates to study abroad. In addition, he sponsored hundreds of undergraduates in private universities across the country. These beneficiaries were expected to come back and support the education sector of the state and beyond. 

These people were selected based on merit, and most of them occupied positions at various tertiary institutions in Kano state and Northern Nigeria in general. Recently, two of the beneficiaries were listed among the most cited scientists in the world.

The governor further created 47 technical colleges to revive technical and vocational education. These colleges were strategically located across 44 local governments to provide secondary school students in rural and urban areas with skills in various trades. 

Looking at how Kano businesspeople import textile and garments materials, the governor also established skills acquisition centres in more than 20 local governments in the state to serve as incubation centres for modern garment production. However, these centres were about to be launched when the present government truncated the effort. Only God knows the reason. 

I heard the governor on air saying that when these centres are launched, they would compete favourably and capture a significant share of the undergarments market in Nigeria and across the sub-region. This is because the centres have been equipped with the most modern techniques and technology in garment making industry.

Kwankwaso didn’t stop there. He introduced over 20 specialised training institutions to provide in-demand skills in agriculture, ICT, sports, tourism and hospitality, among others. One of them is the poultry training institute located at Tukui village of Makoda local government in the northern part of the state.

The institute is designed to offer formal and informal training in poultry production and management. Immediately after its establishment in 2012, the institute trained 4,400 women in basic requirements for poultry production and management practice.

These centres were meant to bridge the skills gap, provide employment to our teeming youth and reduce insecurity and over-dependency on grants by improving internally generated revenue of the state. Had there been continuity in the models employed by the former governor, Kano would have been on its way to reclaiming the past glory it is known for in terms of knowledge and commerce.

The hope of everyone who wishes good for the state is to consolidate this model by whoever would emerge as the state’s number one citizen in 2023. But, of course, this can only be possible if his priority is development.

Tijjani Ahmad wrote from Kano via ahmatee123@gmail.com.

By Mohammed Baba Goro

By Hamid Al-Hassan Hamid

To be honest, the poor reviews against the eNaira app are all valid negative reviews. As usual, policymakers must have rushed software engineers into developing the app in haste, obviously with poor analyses, and the software engineers do not have the balls to stand their ground and point out facts.

For example, how do you create an app that requires email tied to BVN while email was not a required field in BVN registration? This means that those working on the app did not consult other sectors related to the app, and just imagined the app to work in a certain way, developed the app, and now people are complaining.

I was called in by the Federal Ministry of Health on Wednesday to develop a mobile app that would be used to facilitate disease monitoring and control. They wanted to deploy the app on Thursday. I developed the app with the minimum requirements given, but I strongly advised them against putting the app into production without at least testing for a week. Policymakers were not happy about my stance, but I held my ground, and they are complying unwillingly and willingly. They have seen the app, I spent the whole night hacking it out, created the mobile, server backend, and desktop monitoring, then warned them against deploying.

Not everything has to do with rushing to the market to score points and make names. You must be brutally honest with yourself. If you must deploy such an app that serves such serious responsibility as the national currency, you should at least start developing a year ago, AT LEAST!.

ALWAYS TEST, TEST AND TEST!!!!

WRITE AUTOMATED TESTS, THEN RUN MANUAL TESTS, OVER AND OVER AGAIN UNTIL YOU MEMORISE ALMOST ALL THE CODE!!

IT SHOULD NOT ALWAYS BE ABOUT HITTING THE MARKET. ALWAYS ASSIGN GREAT ENERGY TO ENSURE THAT YOUR PRODUCT IS ACTUALLY READY FOR THE MARKET!!!

Hamid Al-Hassan Hamid is a social analyst and expert in software development.

By Lawi Auwal Yusuf

Leaders are preoccupied with self-centred political hustles, party meetings, extravagant banquets and flying their private or chartered jets over the country attending various lavish occasions. On the contrary, Nigerians turned wistful and sad about the terrible fate of the country and the gloomy future. As they get more concerned, their hope becomes less.

The country is endowed with efficacious potentials for its development to become a global power. It has a strategic location, sizable landmass, enormous young population, highly educated elites and abundant natural resources. In addition, favourable climate, fertile farmlands, and the shores that give it access to the Atlantic Ocean in the South are all added advantages.

In the last sixty-one years, Nigeria has reaped hundreds of billions of petrodollars in total revenues as one of the major producers and exporters of oil to the global market. It is the 12^th largest producer of oil in the global ranking, 8^th largest exporter and the 10^th largest proven reserves. According to the Department of Petroleum Resources, it has about 159 oil fields and 1481 wells in production.

Apart from petroleum resources, Nigeria has multiple precious mineral resources in massive deposits. Moreover, cocoa is the largest foreign exchange earner to Nigeria besides oil and rubber, the second largest.

Similarly, as the most populous state in Africa and the 7^th in the world with over 211 million people, Nigeria is a vast market. Its mixed economy is the largest on the continent. It is the 27^th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP as of 2021 estimate. By GDP per capita, it is the 137^th in the global ranking and the 25^th largest by PPP.

However, these unique and extraordinary endowments are rare for a country to possess. These are the best opportunities and possibilities for its advancement. Unfortunately, poor leadership, endemic corruption and mismanagement have been the greatest obstacles in realising the potential. These precious endowments were not genuinely and diligently used. Hence, it has not made appreciable progress in those years. Had they been utilised at the best and maximum capacity, the sky would have been the limit.

More than 40% of Nigerians are living below the poverty benchmark in May 2020 estimates. They are destitute and cannot afford the three daily meals. Today, pervasive poverty depicts the lives of most Nigerians. The life expectancy is as low as 54.7 years on average. Infant mortality reached 74.2 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019, and maternal mortality was 814 per 100,000 live births in 2015.

Moreover, the stagnant economy, inflation and the perpetual falling value of the naira have aggravated the plight of the masses, making life worse, more challenging and more miserable for ordinary Nigerians. There has been a swift rise in the cost of living and a concurrent decline in the living standard. Therefore, poverty, inequality, mass idleness, underemployment and wretchedness are at the highest pinnacle. This made Nigeria always emerge winner of the global rankings of the poorest nations.

It is appalling that the masses are becoming poorer while the nobles are getting more affluent. There has been a persistent widening inequality between the rich and the poor. Transparency International ranked Nigeria 136^th out of 182 in the 2014 Corruption Perceptions Index. It was estimated that more than $400 billion were embezzled by corrupt leaders from independence to 1999. Nonetheless, President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 said that corrupt officials had squandered more than $150 billion in the last decade. As a result, the country is synonymous with corruption. And the most astonishing is that it is among the wealthiest countries and also the poorest simultaneously. This is because the state wealth is enjoyed only by the aristocrats while the commoners are destitute.

Rule by theft known as ‘kleptocracy’ has deteriorated into kleptomania. They are strongly obsessed with stealing to the level that they don’t even have a material need for it. It degenerated into highly competitive accumulation syndrome. The monies that are ideal for the development of Nigeria are stashed at its detriment in Western countries and therefore become beneficial to their contented economies.

On the other hand, in the early 1960s, Nigeria was self-sufficient in food. But after the Civil War in 1970, the government failed to reinvigorate agriculture, resulting in failure to meet the acute population growth. It had to depend primarily on importation to fill up the supply gap. Sadly, in the 21^st-century world, farmers are still tilling the ground with simple implements like hoes and cutlasses to feed a population of over 200 million. As of 2010, almost 30% of Nigerians are employed in agriculture and still have not met up the national demand.

The leaders had failed to provide the basic necessities of life to the citizens. As a result, after more than six decades of self-governance, there is no stable electricity supply, safe drinking water, standard healthcare, adequate and affordable food, qualitative education, social housing estates, infrastructures and social amenities. Nonetheless, the problems of the country in the1960s are yet to be resolved. Poverty, corruption, rule by theft, secessionism, tribal and religious antagonisms are lingering today. Regrettably, terrorism, kidnappings, cattle rustling, banditry and other current collective problems have deepened the crises.

Not being able to diversify the monocultural economy that largely depends on oil plays a significant role in the economy, accounting for 40% of GDP and 80% of the government earnings. Moreover, Nigeria does not adequately exploit the vast array of mineral resources in colossal deposits while the mining industry is still in its early stage of development. Moreover, other sectors of the economy that will help tremendously grow the economy and raise revenues are also underdeveloped. Contrarily, it has remained a perennial borrower of funds in the global capital market. Recently it emerged as the 5^th most debt-ridden country in the world. The World Bank in August 2021 said that it had accumulated $11.7 billion in debt.

There has been deficient human development, especially the youths folk. In 2019, it ranked 161^st in the world in the Human Development Index with a 0.539 score, which was very low. Millions of school-age children are out of school while some wander the streets freely with torn-out clothes and scavenging through rubbish looking for food. These miserable children are left on their own to live their entire unwholesome lives on the streets in search of a living. They have no qualifications or skills to make them employable in the labour market. Similarly, graduates searching for employment happened also to be idle many years after they had left school. Therefore, almost half of Nigerians are unemployed.

Furthermore, the emigration by professional Nigerian doctors to the diaspora known as the “brain drain” due to adverse working conditions in the country led to shortages of doctors in the healthcare system. It was estimated in 1995 that roughly 21,000 indigenous doctors were working in America alone, which was almost equal to those in the public health service then.

When you make a comparative analysis between Nigeria and its peers to assess its performance, you will realise that it had performed poorly. For example, look at the High Performing East Asian Economies (HPEAEs) that include Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan. They are the fastest-growing economies in the world after the first world countries. Some had launched rockets into space. They manufacture aircraft, ships, automobiles, computers and smartphones while Nigeria still imports razor blades, pencils, toothpicks, including its most abundant petroleum products. Singapore and Japan developed from the less developed countries and joined the first world nations.

Look at other countries like UAE, India, Brazil and South Africa that recently established a consociational democracy in 1994. Nigeria played a significant role in fighting the apartheid regime and helped in establishing the multiracial democracy in the country. South Africa is now regarded as a highly developed state and has become a better haven for Nigerian youths who emigrated there in search of greener pasture.

Finally, Nigeria still has the chance to do better and start developing once more to realise its long-lost potential.

Lawi Auwal Yusuf wrote from Kano. He can be reached via laymaikanawa@gmail.com.