Economy

By Jamiu Abdulgafar Olamilekan

The Punch Newspaper editorial on May 5, 2026 (Page 18), titled “Women Need Better Access to Credit”, highlights one of Nigeria’s most persistent economic blind spots. Despite their immense contributions to business, agriculture, trade, and family welfare, women remain locked out of the financial support they need to grow and thrive.

Across Nigerian markets, women dominate petty trading and small-scale enterprises from fashion shops and food businesses to salons, online ventures, and farming. Yet, securing loans from banks is often impossible.

As the editorial points out, collateral requirements, guarantors, and complex documentation create barriers that many hardworking women in both rural and urban communities cannot overcome.

This exclusion is, to say the least, unjust. Women are among the most financially responsible members of society, stretching limited resources to support children, families, and entire communities. Still, government empowerment programmes frequently fail to reach them.

In some cases, corruption, favouritism, and poor implementation dilute their impact, while lack of financial education and weak communication leave rural women unaware of opportunities that could change their lives.

Going forward, banks and other financial institutions must design loan systems that are flexible and inclusive. Lower interest rates for female-owned small businesses, coupled with expanded financial literacy programmes, would ensure women not only access credit but also manage it effectively.

The government, on its part, must enforce transparency and accountability in policies aimed at empowering women.

Beyond economics, financial empowerment strengthens families and reduces poverty. A woman with a stable income is more likely to invest in education, healthcare, and better living conditions for her household. The ripple effect benefits society at large.

Nigeria cannot claim to pursue inclusive growth while millions of women remain financially excluded. Empowering women is not charity — it is a strategic investment in the nation’s future.

Jamiu Abdulgafar Olamilekan is a Strategic Communication student at Yakubu Gowon University, Abuja. He can be reached at jamiuabdulgafar510@gmail.com.

By Rahab Abashi

Debt has emerged as one of the most contentious topics in Nigeria today. Public opinion is often divided, as many view borrowing as an inherent evil, while others argue it is a necessary tool for development. 

In my view, borrowing is not inherently detrimental; rather, the crux lies in how these funds are utilised and whether they effectively stimulate national growth.

Many of the world’s most powerful economies operate on significant debt. Global leaders such as the United States, Japan, China, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, India, Italy, Canada, and Brazil all carry substantial national burdens. 

The United States owes over $34 trillion, Japan’s debt exceeds $9 trillion, and China’s stands at more than $14 trillion. Similarly, developed nations like the United Kingdom, France, and Italy owe trillions of dollars. 

Despite these figures, these nations maintain robust economies by channelling borrowed capital into high-impact sectors such as industry, technology, infrastructure, and commerce.

A defining characteristic of these successful nations is their diversified revenue streams. The United States generates wealth through technology, entertainment, finance, and manufacturing. China dominates in production and exports, while Germany is a global leader in engineering and automobiles. 

India, meanwhile, earns significantly from software services and its world-renowned film industry, Bollywood. While these countries borrow, they possess resilient systems that generate the income necessary to service and repay those loans without seriously impacting citizens.

Nigeria’s predicament is notably different due to an over-reliance on a single commodity. Crude oil remains the nation’s primary source of revenue and foreign exchange. 

Consequently, whenever global oil prices fluctuate, the Nigerian economy suffers a direct hit. This volatility highlights the inherent risk of a mono-product economy, particularly for a country with Nigeria’s massive population.

I believe that borrowing itself is not the primary issue. The real challenges are poor management and a lack of economic diversification. If Nigeria secures loans to revitalise electricity, transportation, agriculture, education, and healthcare, debt becomes a catalyst for development. 

However, when borrowed funds are mismanaged or fail to improve the standard of living, debt is understandably perceived as a burden.

Beyond oil, Nigeria possesses several sectors with immense revenue potential. Agriculture is paramount, given our fertile land and large workforce; the country could achieve significant gains from exports of rice, cocoa, cassava, and palm oil. 

Our entertainment industry is expanding rapidly, with Nigerian music, film, comedy, and fashion gaining global acclaim. Technology also offers a bright frontier, as Nigerian youth increasingly excel in digital skills, software development, and innovation.

With this potential left to stagnate, Nigeria must pivot toward developing a multi-sectoral economy. Economically successful nations are rarely dependent on a single source of income. 

Borrowing is a viable strategy provided the capital is invested wisely in productive sectors that drive growth and create jobs. 

If the giant of Africa prioritises investment in agriculture, entertainment, technology, manufacturing, and tourism, it can build a resilient economy and finally break its precarious dependence on oil.

Abashi Rahab is a student of Strategic Communication at Yakubu Gowon University, Abuja.  An intern with IMPR.  She can be reached at: abashirahab@gmail.com.

By Dahiru Kasimu Adamu

Rice farmers in Kebbi State are in a dilemma as quila birds, locally known as Buwa, continue to threaten food security by devouring their farm produce.

During a visit to rice clusters in the Argungu fadama land, including Dankwalli, Kuyar Masama, Janduma, Kwalaga, and others, farmers were seen shouting, wielding sticks, and using other materials to make loud noises to scare the birds away from their farms.

The farmers described the situation as disastrous. “Quila birds need only a short time to finish what farmers spend months cultivating. This forces us to move early to the farms and prevent the birds from ending our farming,” said Lauwali Usman, a farmer at the Dankwalli rice cluster.

Another farmer, Usman in Kuyar Masama,  explained how the quila bird “has caused some farmers to harvest their rice early because they can no longer keep moving to their farms every morning and evening to prevent the birds from eating their produce. They are afraid of losing what they spent months cultivating.”

Many farmers have stories to tell about the quila bird and how it threatens rice farming. What they share in common, however, is an appeal to authorities to assist them by spreading chemicals to eliminate the birds, arguing that traditional methods are too weak.

In a previous interview, Dr Aminu Aliyu, an agriculturalist who teaches at the Department of Agricultural Education, Adamu Augie College of Education, Argungu, said the best and most scientific method of addressing the quila bird problem is “locating their nesting environment and spreading chemicals. This can be achieved by collaborating with local farmers and extension agents, and is normally done by the state government or in conjunction with the federal government.”

Dr Aliyu described quila birds as “migratory birds that travel long distances and can cause havoc to any farm they stay on, even within a short period.”

Apart from rising input costs and the petrol price hike due to subsidy removal, the quila bird has been a major problem affecting rice farmers since the beginning of dry season farming, known locally as Katashi in Kebbi State.

By Salmanu Isah Darazo

The decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5 per cent reflects a carefully calibrated policy direction aimed at balancing inflation control, exchange rate stability and economic growth amid mounting global uncertainties.

At the end of its 305th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on May 19 and 20, 2026, the apex bank chose to maintain all key monetary parameters, signaling a continuation of its tight monetary policy stance despite moderating inflation indicators and improving macroeconomic fundamentals.

The decision comes at a time when Nigeria’s economy is navigating both domestic recovery and external shocks arising from geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Middle East crisis, which has triggered increases in global energy prices and logistics costs.

For policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria, the challenge is not merely reducing inflation, but ensuring that the gains achieved through recent economic reforms are not reversed by premature policy loosening.

Inflation Still the Primary Concern

Although headline inflation rose marginally from 15.38 per cent in March to 15.69 per cent in April 2026, the MPC viewed the increase as temporary and largely imported. Food inflation climbed to 16.06 per cent due to rising transportation and logistics costs, while core inflation moderated to 15.86 per cent.

More significantly, month-on-month inflation slowed sharply to 2.13 per cent from 4.18 per cent, while the 12-month average inflation rate declined for the sixth consecutive month.

These indicators suggest that the aggressive monetary tightening pursued by the Central Bank of Nigeria over the past two years is gradually yielding results.

However, the MPC’s decision to hold rates rather than begin easing indicates that the apex bank remains cautious about declaring victory over inflation too early. Monetary authorities appear concerned that loosening rates prematurely could reignite inflationary pressures, weaken investor confidence and place renewed strain on the foreign exchange market.

By retaining the benchmark rate, the Central Bank of Nigeria is attempting to anchor inflation expectations while preserving confidence in the broader macroeconomic framework.

Reform Gains Influencing Monetary Confidence

A key message from the MPC meeting is that Nigeria’s recent policy reforms are beginning to strengthen economic resilience.

The committee repeatedly referenced exchange rate stability, stronger external reserves, improved monetary policy transmission and fiscal consolidation as evidence that the economy is better positioned to withstand external shocks than in previous years.

Gross external reserves increased to $49.49 billion as of mid-May 2026, enough to cover more than nine months of imports. This represents a major buffer against exchange rate volatility and external market pressures.

The committee also highlighted the successful completion of the banking recapitalisation exercise, which produced 33 stronger and better-capitalised banks capable of supporting economic growth and financial stability.

Taken together, these developments appear to have reinforced the confidence of the Central Bank of Nigeria in maintaining a steady policy stance rather than resorting to emergency tightening measures.

Growth Versus Tight Monetary Policy

One of the recurring criticisms of high interest rates is their impact on private sector borrowing, investment and overall economic growth.

At 26.5 per cent, Nigeria’s benchmark interest rate remains one of the highest in Africa, raising concerns among manufacturers and businesses about the cost of credit.

Nevertheless, recent economic data suggest that growth has remained relatively resilient despite the tight monetary environment. Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.07 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by growth in agriculture, industry and services sectors.

The oil sector also recorded stronger performance due to improved refining activities.

For the MPC, these growth figures may have strengthened the argument that the economy can still withstand elevated interest rates while inflation is being brought under control.

This reflects the classic central banking dilemma: tightening monetary policy may slow borrowing and spending in the short term, but policymakers believe such measures are necessary to restore long-term macroeconomic stability.

Global Uncertainty Shaping Domestic Decisions

Another important factor behind the MPC’s cautious approach is the uncertain global economic outlook.

The committee warned that geopolitical tensions, energy market disruptions and tighter financial conditions could slow global growth and sustain inflationary pressures across many economies.

Around the world, major central banks are increasingly adopting a cautious and data-driven approach, slowing or pausing monetary easing despite signs of moderating inflation.

The Central Bank of Nigeria appears to be aligning with this global trend by prioritising stability over rapid policy adjustments.

This approach is particularly important for emerging economies like Nigeria, where investor sentiment, exchange rate movements and external financing conditions are highly sensitive to monetary policy signals.

Implications for Nigerians

For ordinary Nigerians, the decision means borrowing costs are likely to remain high in the near term. Commercial bank lending rates may continue to constrain access to affordable credit for businesses and households.

However, the MPC believes maintaining policy discipline is necessary to prevent a return to severe inflationary pressures that could further erode purchasing power and destabilise the economy.

If inflation continues to moderate and exchange rate stability persists over the coming months, the Central Bank of Nigeria may eventually consider gradual monetary easing.

For now, however, the central bank appears determined to consolidate recent macroeconomic gains before making any major policy shift.

The overall message from the MPC meeting is clear: stability remains the priority, and the Central Bank of Nigeria is unwilling to risk reversing the fragile progress achieved through recent reforms.

Salmanu Isah Darazo is a publisher and policy analyst. He can be reached via Salmanudrz@gmail.com

By Inusa Rabiu Isah

As tensions continue to rise around the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices are climbing again, shipping risks are increasing, and analysts are warning that any prolonged disruption in the Gulf region could trigger another major energy shock. For many Nigerians, the immediate reaction is predictable: “Nigeria will benefit because we are an oil-producing country.” Yet every major oil shock continues to expose the same uncomfortable reality: despite its enormous crude oil reserves, Nigeria remains dangerously vulnerable to global energy instability.

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most strategic energy transit routes. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the Strait in 2025, representing roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and nearly 25% of global seaborne oil trade. In addition, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that around 20% of global LNG trade moves through the same corridor.

This explains why instability around Hormuz immediately affects global energy markets. The concern extends beyond crude supply to tanker movements, shipping insurance, freight costs, refinery feedstock availability, refined product pricing, and market speculation.

Similarly, past disruptions such as the 1973 oil embargo, the Gulf Wars, and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict demonstrated how geopolitical instability can rapidly trigger inflation across import-dependent economies through higher fuel, transport, and food costs.

Nigeria is no exception.

Although Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers, the country still operates an economy heavily dependent on imported energy-linked systems. Millions of households and businesses rely on petrol and diesel generators due to an unstable electricity supply, while transport and logistics remain overwhelmingly road-dependent. Consequently, rising diesel and petrol prices quickly spread across the economy.

The first major mistake in many public discussions is the assumption that higher crude prices automatically benefit Nigeria. Oil revenue depends not only on price, but also on production volume.

According to Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) data released in April 2026, Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production rose to about 1.546 million barrels per day in March 2026. However, crude oil production excluding condensates stood around 1.382 million barrels per day, still below Nigeria’s OPEC quota of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day.

Therefore, higher crude prices alone cannot guarantee stronger economic benefits unless production remains stable, oil theft is reduced, and export infrastructure functions efficiently.

The second mistake is confusing crude oil price with petrol price. Nigerians do not buy crude oil at filling stations; they buy refined petroleum products. Petrol and diesel prices are influenced not only by crude benchmarks but also by refining margins, freight charges, foreign exchange rates, logistics, taxes, insurance, and marketer margins.

This is where Nigeria’s foreign exchange challenge becomes critical. A weaker naira significantly increases the cost of refined products and energy-related imports. Since the removal of fuel subsidies, domestic fuel prices now respond more directly to global market volatility. Consequently, international oil shocks now transmit faster into local petrol and diesel prices.

Although the Dangote Refinery represents a major improvement in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, local refining alone cannot completely shield the country from global oil-price volatility. Crude feedstock pricing remains internationally linked, and refined product prices still respond to international market conditions. Nonetheless, the refinery remains a critical step toward improving Nigeria’s long-term energy security and reducing import dependence.

Recent domestic fuel data already show how exposed Nigeria’s economy remains. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data indicated that the average retail petrol price rose to about ₦1,288.54 per litre in March 2026, while diesel prices recorded an estimated 16.05% month-on-month increase during the same period.

These are not just economic statistics. They affect transport fares, food prices, manufacturers, small businesses powering generators, and millions of Nigerians already struggling with inflation.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s deeper challenge remains structural energy vulnerability. Electricity supply is weak, gas infrastructure is underdeveloped, rail freight systems are limited, and strategic fuel reserves are inadequate. Under these conditions, every major disruption in global energy markets quickly evolves into domestic inflation and economic hardship.

The policy lesson is therefore clear: Nigeria must stop celebrating rising oil prices without asking whether the country is structurally prepared to benefit from them. Nigeria must raise and sustain crude oil production, strengthen domestic refining, expand gas infrastructure, develop strategic fuel reserves, and treat energy security as an economic-security issue rather than merely a petroleum-sector issue.

Conclusively, the Strait of Hormuz may be geographically distant from Nigeria, but its economic consequences can reach Nigerian households within days. That is the reality of today’s interconnected global oil market. Until Nigeria builds real energy resilience, global oil shocks will continue producing the same painful irony: a country rich in crude oil, yet perpetually vulnerable to energy insecurity and affordability.

Engr. Inusa Rabiu Isah, GMNSE, MIAENG, is a petroleum engineer and energy analyst with interests in petroleum economics, energy security, and sustainable industrial development. He writes from Abuja and can be reached via inusarabiuisah@gmail.com.

By Sabiu Abdullahi

Tony Attah, the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Renaissance Africa Energy Company, has said about 100,000 Nigerians die every year because they do not have access to cleaner energy sources.

Attah spoke on Thursday at the Africa CEO Forum held in Kigali, Rwanda. He said the situation extends across the continent, where more than 400,000 deaths are linked to poor access to cleaner energy.

He stressed the importance of natural gas to Africa’s electricity sector and described cleaner energy as critical to improving living conditions across the continent.

“When you look in Nigeria, 100,000 people die every year from lack of access to cleaner energy. Just look at that poor woman who is trying to put food on the table, and she has to cook through the smoke, using poor quality fuels, walking in and out of that every day,” he said.

“Think about it. One child on the left, one on her right, one on her back. They go in day in (and) day out. That is where your 100,000 people come from. The overall number for Africa is more than 400,000.”

Attah said Africa should not accept such statistics despite its huge gas reserves.

“That’s not the narrative that you should feel proud of as an African, that’s not the narrative that you should feel proud of as somebody in the industry that says we have 620 tcf of gas that can provide life,” he said.

“Essentially, gas is life, and that’s how Africa has to see gas. And if we as producers see it that way, we now need to get that same logic to the minds of the leadership, because integration is what has to happen in Nigeria.”

The energy executive also urged African countries to invest in their own natural resources instead of relying heavily on foreign financiers.

According to him, Nigeria’s electricity supply remains inadequate for its population of more than 200 million people.

“If you look at Nigeria, we have over 200 million people. The total spinning reserves of electricity is under 20 gigawatt. And what is available for the population is about five. So 5,000 megawatt for 200 million people,” he said.

“Of course, there are millions of generators all over the place. But no economy can take off on the back of diesel generators. In the same vein, no economy should expect to take off on the balance sheet of others.”

Attah argued that Africa must reclaim financial resources tied up abroad if the continent hopes to fund its own development.

“So those $4-$5 trillion that Amaodu referenced, that is sitting elsewhere but belongs to Africa, has to come back, and that is how Africa will start to take centre stage in financing itself,” he said.

“You can’t keep expecting people to want to finance you and then you want to lead them or you want to stand up to them — you must be subservient if someone is financing you. As they say, who pays the piper dictates the tune.”

He further called for a shift from exporting raw gas to using the resource to create economic value within Africa.

Also speaking at the forum, Chairman of McKinsey Africa, Acha Leke, said Africa possesses about 10 per cent of the world’s proven gas reserves and could sustain production at current levels for another 70 years.

Despite this, he noted that only three per cent of gas produced on the continent is traded within Africa.

Leke said 34 per cent of African gas is exported outside the continent, while most of the gas consumed within Africa is concentrated in Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt and Libya.

According to him, the continent’s gas infrastructure was designed mainly for exports rather than for regional distribution and trade.

By Ahmed Usman

In the years following independence, Northern Nigeria stood at the forefront of the country’s economic progress. The region’s agricultural output, symbolised by the famous groundnut pyramids of Kano and by thriving cotton production across the savannah belt, powered employment, export earnings, and real-sector development. For a time, Northern Nigeria was not only a major driver of Nigeria’s economy but also one of the most economically vibrant regions on the African continent. Today, however, the region finds itself at a critical crossroads.

Over the past two decades, Northern Nigeria has faced a combination of security, economic, and structural challenges that have slowed its development trajectory. The rise of insurgency in the North-East, banditry and cattle rustling in parts of the North-West, and persistent farmers–herders conflicts have disrupted livelihoods, weakened agricultural production, and discouraged investment. These crises have inflicted enormous human and economic costs not only on the region but also on the Nigerian economy as a whole.

Yet security challenges alone do not explain the region’s economic difficulties. The deeper problem lies in the failure to convert the region’s extraordinary demographic and natural advantages into sustained economic growth.

Northern Nigeria possesses some of the most significant development assets in the country. The region accounts for more than 60 per cent of Nigeria’s population and contains over 80 per cent of the country’s arable land. It also receives abundant sunlight, suitable for solar power generation, and hosts numerous dams capable of supporting large-scale irrigation and energy production.

Despite these advantages, the region continues to record some of Nigeria’s most troubling development indicators. Poverty levels remain among the highest in the country. Youth unemployment is widespread. The region also accounts for about 20 million out-of-school children, one of the highest figures worldwide. Internally generated revenue in many northern states remains low, limiting the fiscal capacity needed to finance development.

This paradox of abundant resources alongside persistent poverty highlights the urgency of a new development strategy to transform its demographic advantages into a true demographic dividend.

At the heart of the solution lies the revival of the real sector. For too long, Nigeria’s growth model has leaned heavily on the service sector and oil revenues, sectors that generate limited employment relative to the country’s rapidly expanding workforce. Each year, millions of young Nigerians enter the labour market, yet the economy struggles to create sufficient productive jobs. Sustainable and inclusive growth will require renewed investment in sectors capable of generating large-scale employment. Agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, and renewable energy stand out as areas where Northern Nigeria holds a natural comparative advantage.

Agriculture in particular offers a powerful pathway for economic transformation. With vast fertile land and favourable climatic conditions, the region has the potential to become Nigeria’s primary agricultural hub once again. Expanding irrigation farming, adopting modern agricultural technologies, improving access to inputs, and strengthening agricultural value chains could dramatically increase productivity while generating millions of rural jobs. But agriculture alone will not be enough. The next stage of development must focus on building strong agro-industrial linkages. Processing agricultural products locally rather than exporting raw commodities can significantly increase value addition, stimulate rural industries, and expand export opportunities.

Infrastructure will be critical to unlocking these opportunities. Reliable electricity, modern road networks, efficient storage systems, and improved logistics are essential for connecting farmers, manufacturers, and entrepreneurs to national and global markets. The region’s extensive dam infrastructure already provides enormous potential for irrigation agriculture and renewable energy if properly utilised.

Equally important is the need to invest in human capital. Northern Nigeria’s youthful population represents one of the region’s greatest assets, but only if young people are equipped with the education, skills, and opportunities needed to participate in a modern economy. Expanding access to quality education, strengthening vocational training, and promoting the development of technical skills must become central pillars of the region’s development strategy.

Yet economic progress ultimately depends on the strength of institutions. Transparent governance, accountable public institutions, and a regulatory environment that encourages private investment are essential for sustainable development. Reducing bureaucratic barriers, strengthening property rights, and improving the ease of doing business will be critical for attracting both domestic and foreign investment.

History shows that development trajectories can change when policy direction aligns with economic potential. Northern Nigeria once played a central role in powering Nigeria’s economic progress. There is no reason it cannot do so again.

The challenges facing the region are significant, but they are not insurmountable. With strategic investments, stronger institutions, and a renewed focus on the real sector, Northern Nigeria can unlock the immense potential of its land, its resources, and most importantly, its people. The region’s future should not be determined by the weight of its challenges but by the boldness of its choices. If those choices are made wisely, Northern Nigeria could once again emerge as one of the most powerful engines of economic growth in the country and perhaps on the continent.

By Daniel Nduka Okonkwo

Nigeria’s debt clock has surged to ₦159.28 trillion, a figure that translates to roughly ₦724,000 per citizen when spread across a population of more than 220 million. This arithmetic alone underscores the scale of the nation’s obligations. While official voices emphasise that the debt-to-GDP ratio remains within accepted thresholds, the underlying reality is sobering: the country’s current account is being financed through persistent domestic borrowing and mounting external debt. Each statistic is a reminder that today’s fiscal gaps are tomorrow’s responsibilities, with the burden of development increasingly shifted onto generations yet unborn.

Is there a way out for Nigerians? The path forward demands more than borrowed billions. It requires a fundamental reassessment of how resources are managed, how revenue is diversified, and how structural weaknesses are addressed. While the figures may suggest sustainability on paper, the lived reality reflects rising costs, shrinking opportunities, and a future increasingly tied to creditor obligations. Breaking this cycle will require bold reforms, transparent governance, and a commitment to building an economy driven by productivity rather than dependence on borrowing.

When distributed across the population, the debt translates to roughly ₦700,000 to ₦725,000 per citizen. This figure is only a statistical illustration and not a legal obligation on individuals. Public debt remains a sovereign responsibility shared by the Federal Government, state governments, and the Federal Capital Territory, and it is serviced through public revenue rather than direct payments by citizens.

As of late 2025, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at approximately ₦159.28 trillion, equivalent to about $103 billion to $111 billion depending on the exchange rate applied. This represents an increase from about ₦144.7 trillion in 2024, reflecting continued reliance on borrowing to finance fiscal deficits.

Nigeria’s debt stock consists of both domestic and external borrowing. Domestic debt is estimated at ₦84-₦85 trillion, while external debt stands at ₦74 trillion. Persistent budget deficits have driven the growth in total debt, increased domestic borrowing through treasury bills and government bonds, and led to exchange rate depreciation, raising the value of the naira against external obligations. By mid-2025, total debt had reached about ₦152.39 trillion before rising further to ₦159.28 trillion by year-end.

Debt servicing remains a more pressing concern than the size of the debt itself. In 2025, debt servicing costs rose to approximately ₦15.8 trillion, up from about ₦12.8 trillion in 2024. Higher interest rates on domestic debt instruments largely drove this increase. Servicing costs for domestic debt rose sharply due to increased yields on treasury bills and Federal Government bonds. At certain points in 2025, the debt service-to-revenue ratio exceeded 80 per cent, meaning that a substantial portion of government revenue was used to service existing debt.

Looking ahead, Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal outlook reflects continued pressure on public finances. The proposed budget projects total expenditure of about ₦58.5 trillion against expected revenue of approximately ₦33.2 trillion, leaving a fiscal deficit of about ₦25 trillion. This gap is expected to be financed largely through additional borrowing, which could push total public debt beyond ₦160 trillion.

Planned borrowing includes external loans estimated at $6 billion, along with an additional $516 million under consideration. However, claims suggesting approvals equivalent to ₦68 trillion appear inconsistent and are likely the result of conversion or reporting errors rather than actual borrowing approvals.

The comparison between Nigeria’s per capita debt of roughly ₦724,000 and the national minimum wage of ₦70,000 is largely symbolic but highlights deeper economic realities. It reflects low-income levels, rising cost of living, and mounting pressure on public finances. It does not imply that citizens are personally responsible for repaying the debt.

Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio, estimated at 35 per cent to 37 per cent, remains below the commonly referenced 60 per cent threshold. However, experts consistently stress that revenue constraints, rather than debt size alone, represent the country’s most significant fiscal risk.

Key concerns include the high share of revenue devoted to debt servicing, limited fiscal space for critical sectors such as infrastructure, health, and education, and potential inflationary risks if deficit financing continues to expand. Exchange rate volatility also affects the dollar value of external debt, adding further complexity to fiscal management.

Nigeria’s public debt, now approaching ₦160 trillion, is not excessive relative to GDP. However, the cost of servicing that debt and the country’s limited revenue base present a growing fiscal challenge. The per capita framing helps illustrate the scale of the burden, but the central issue remains how effectively borrowed funds translate into economic growth and improved living conditions.

As borrowing continues, the sustainability of Nigeria’s fiscal path will depend less on the amount owed and more on how effectively the economy generates the revenue required to support those obligations.

Daniel Nduka Okonkwo is a Nigerian investigative journalist, publisher of Profiles International Human Rights Advocate with Daniels Entertainment, a policy analyst, and human rights activist. He writes from Nigeria and can be reached at dan.okonkwo.73@gmail.com.

By Ishaka Mohammed

A son-in-law of Aliko Dangote, Captain Jamil Abubakar, has raised multimillion naira to support entrepreneurs in northern Nigeria. Captain Jamil, a pilot, is the son of former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Dikko Abubakar.

On March 21, 2026, Captain Jamil tweeted his wish to attract investors to Arewa businesses, and by the end of the following day (March 22), he had already raised 100 million naira. He disclosed that he had asked other willing donors to wait until after the pilot phase of the initiative, the Arewa Business Support Fund. 

He revealed that beneficiaries would receive interest-free business loans, which, when repaid, would be used to support more businesses. Beneficiaries would also enjoy free mentorship and consultancy. 

Responding to concerns that fluency in English could be a barrier, the captain assured the public that local languages would feature prominently in the Fund’s activities, stressing that businesses domiciled in the North, regardless of ownership and owners’ language proficiency, would be considered. 

He mentioned names of other stakeholders, including the acting financial secretary of the Fund, Mohammed Jammal (aka White Nigerian), Khalil Nur Khalil (economic adviser to Katsina State Government), and Mohammed Bello El-Rufai (a member of the House of Representatives), among others.

During a discussion among the stakeholders on X, it was revealed that Saleem Abubakar Musa (simply called Saleem) had been like a personal assistant to Captain Jamil.

On March 27, Saleem (@AM_Saleeeem) tweeted the summary of the subsequent activities of the Fund as follows:

“Next Steps:

– The website will be launched to the public soon, featuring comprehensive details, business templates, and practical guides (how to, when to, and what to do).

– Formal registration of the Arewa Business Support Fund as a legal entity, including banking and all required documentation.

– Nomination of Board of Trustees.

– Rollout of the pilot phase.”

However, the Fund will consider only existing businesses in the pilot phase; business ideas alone would be rejected.

By Muhammad Umar Shehu

Nigeria’s economic crisis is often discussed in technical language. We talk about inflation rates, exchange rates, GDP growth, fiscal deficits, and monetary tightening. Experts debate policy direction, subsidy removal, and currency reforms. Yet beneath all these discussions lies a deeper truth that we are reluctant to confront: Nigeria’s economic crisis is, at its core, a moral crisis.

In Adam Smith and Islam, Waseem Naser reminds us that economics was never meant to be detached from ethics. Adam Smith, widely regarded as the father of modern economics, was first a moral philosopher. Before writing The Wealth of Nations, he wrote The Theory of Moral Sentiments, where he emphasised sympathy, justice, and moral restraint. Markets, in his view, could not function in isolation from moral responsibility.

Islamic economic thought shares this foundation. Trade is encouraged, wealth is permitted, and enterprise is respected. But all of these operate within firm moral boundaries. Justice is non-negotiable. Exploitation is forbidden. Wealth carries responsibility. Accountability is certain.

When we examine Nigeria’s current situation through this lens, the picture becomes clearer.

Inflation continues to erode the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. The naira struggles for stability. Youth unemployment remains alarmingly high. The cost of food and transportation has risen beyond the reach of many families. These are economic realities. But they are also symptoms of deeper institutional and moral weaknesses.

An economy cannot thrive where corruption undermines trust. Adam Smith insisted that justice is the main pillar that upholds society. Once justice collapses, society itself begins to crack. In Nigeria, public funds are routinely mismanaged, contracts are inflated, and accountability mechanisms are weak. This is not merely inefficiency. It is moral decay.

Islamic principles reinforce this argument. Leadership is considered a trust. Public office is an amanah, not a private investment opportunity. When leadership becomes a means of personal enrichment, the moral foundation of governance collapses. What follows is predictable: inequality widens, poverty deepens, and citizens lose faith in the system.

The recent economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, may have theoretical justification. Many economists argue they were long overdue. However, reform without structured social protection reflects a failure of moral sensitivity. When policies disproportionately burden the poor while elites remain insulated, justice is compromised.

Adam Smith did not promote greed. He believed self-interest operates within moral boundaries shaped by social conscience. Islam teaches a similar balance. Wealth creation is legitimate, but not at the expense of human dignity. In Nigeria, however, profit often overrides public welfare.

Consider the widening gap between political elites and ordinary citizens. Luxury convoys move through streets where citizens struggle to afford basic commodities. Public spending priorities often appear disconnected from public suffering. This visible inequality damages more than economic stability. It damages national unity.

Islamic economic thought provides mechanisms for social balance, such as zakat and structured redistribution. These are not acts of charity alone. They are instruments of justice. In Nigeria, social intervention programs frequently suffer from poor targeting, lack of transparency, and political manipulation. The result is minimal impact and widespread distrust.

Nigeria does not lack natural resources. It does not lack human capital. What it lacks is consistent ethical leadership and institutional discipline. An economy built on fragile moral foundations cannot stand firm.

The lesson from both Adam Smith’s moral philosophy and Islamic economic principles is straightforward. Markets require trust. Trust requires justice. Justice requires accountability. Without these elements, reforms remain cosmetic.

If Nigeria is to move forward, economic reconstruction must be accompanied by moral reconstruction. Transparency must replace opacity. Accountability must replace impunity. Public service must replace personal gain.

Economic indicators may improve temporarily, but without ethical grounding, instability will return. Sustainable growth demands more than sound monetary policy. It demands character in leadership and integrity in institutions.

Nigeria’s future will not be secured by technical adjustments alone. It will be secured when justice becomes the true foundation of governance.

Until then, our economic crisis will remain what it has always been: a reflection of a deeper moral failure.

Muhammad Umar Shehu wrote from Gombe. He can be reached via: umarmuhammadshehu2@gmail.com.