By Iranloye Sofiu Taiye
The recent decision by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has triggered reactions of uncertainty across the geopolitical landscape of West Africa. This unprecedented move, announced in January 2024, marks a critical juncture for a bloc historically revered as a beacon of regional integration and collective security. The departure of these three Sahelian nations, all grappling with military rule, jihadist insurgencies, and socioeconomic fragility threatens to destabilize the delicate equilibrium of ECOWAS, undermining its credibility and operational efficacy.
ECOWAS was founded in 1975 via the Treaty of Lagos Nigeria, ECOWAS emerged as a post-colonial vision to foster economic integration, political solidarity, and collective self-reliance among West African states. Its architects envisioned a regional powerhouse capable of rivaling global economic blocs, anchored by principles of free movement, a common market, and monetary union. Over the decades, ECOWAS evolved beyond economics, establishing itself as a custodian of democratic norms through protocols such as the 2001 Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance, which condemned any form of unconstitutional government changes.
The bloc’s peacekeeping ventures, notably the ECOWAS Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) interventions in Liberia (1990), and Sierra Leone (1997) demonstrated its capacity to mediate conflict. However, ECOWAS has also faced perennial challenges including coups d’état, governance failures, and the paradox between its lofty ideals and the grim realities of poverty and instability. The recent wave of military takeovers in Mali (2020, 2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023), each met with ECOWAS sanctions and suspensions exposed cracks in the bloc’s authority, heralding the current crisis.
The withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger strikes at the heart of ECOWAS’s political legitimacy. These nations, representing 10% of the bloc’s population and vast territorial expanse, have denounced ECOWAS as a “tool of foreign powers” and accused it of imposing punitive measures that exacerbate their populations’ suffering. Their exit underscores a broader regional disillusionment with ECOWAS’s perceived alignment with Western interests, particularly France, amid rising anti-colonial sentiment.
For ECOWAS, the secession weakens its bargaining power on continental and global stages. The bloc’s ability to enforce democratic norms is now in jeopardy, emboldening other authoritarian regimes and eroding its moral authority. Moreover, the formation of the “Alliance of Sahel States” (AES) by the three nations — a mutual defense pact aligned with Russia — signals a shift toward alternative alliances, potentially fracturing West Africa into competing spheres of influence. This realignment risks destabilizing the region further, as rival powers like Russia, China, and Western nations vie for strategic footholds.
Economically, the departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger disrupts ECOWAS’s integration agenda. The bloc’s flagship projects — such as the ECOWAS Single Currency (Eco), slated for 2027—face existential threats. These nations collectively contribute critical mineral resources (gold, uranium) and agricultural output, and their absence could fragment supply chains, inflate intra-regional trade costs, and deter foreign investment.
The free movement protocol, a cornerstone of ECOWAS, may also unravel. Border closures and visa restrictions could follow, stifling cross-border commerce and cultural exchange. Nigeria, which accounts for over 60% of ECOWAS’s GDP, stands to lose significantly: its northern states rely on trade with Niger, while its industries depend on regional markets. The exodus may also derail infrastructure projects like the Kano – Maradi rail project hampering economic growth.
As ECOWAS’s traditional hegemon, Nigeria must spearhead the bloc’s response to this crisis. Historically, Nigeria has bankrolled ECOWAS initiatives and mediated conflicts, but its recent influence has waned amid domestic challenges—security crises, economic stagnation, and diplomatic inertia. To reclaim its leadership, Nigeria must adopt a multi-pronged strategy:
Diplomatic Re-engagement: Nigeria should initiate high-level dialogues with the AES states, addressing grievances while advocating a return to constitutional order. Leveraging its cultural and economic ties — particularly with Niger, with whom it shares a 1,600km border — Nigeria must balance firmness with empathy, avoiding the perception of bullying.
Institutional Reforms: ECOWAS requires structural revitalization. Nigeria should champion reforms to decentralize decision-making, reduce Francophone-Anglophone tensions, and prioritize grassroots economic integration. A revised governance framework, incorporating civil society and youth voices, could restore public trust.
Security Collaboration: The Sahel’s jihadist insurgencies, which have spilled into Nigeria’s northwest, demand a unified approach. Nigeria could propose a joint ECOWAS-AES security task force, blending counterterrorism efforts with development programs to undercut extremism.
Economic Incentives: To lure back the AES, Nigeria could advocate for sanctions relief tied to democratic transitions, coupled with debt forgiveness and infrastructure investments. A Marshall Plan-like initiative for the Sahel, funded by ECOWAS and international partners, might alleviate poverty fueling instability.
Conclusively, the exit of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS is not merely a regional setback but a clarion call for introspection. The bloc’s survival hinges on its ability to reconcile idealism with pragmatism, balancing democratic principles with the urgent needs of fractured states. Nigeria, as the region’s linchpin, must rise to the occasion, blending visionary leadership with humility. In an era of shifting global alliances and resurgent authoritarianism, the stakes could not be higher: without decisive action, the dream of West African unity may dissolve into a mosaic of discord, leaving millions vulnerable to the storms of history.
Iranloye Sofiu Taiye can be reached via:
iranloye100@gmail.com