Economy

By Mohammed Mohammed Haruna, PhD, mnipr

Every economy has its insiders and its outsiders. The distinction is not always determined by citizenship, geography or even willingness to work. Sometimes, it is drawn quietly by access: access to credit, identity, insurance, knowledge, technology and the institutional pathways through which human effort is converted into economic possibility. Millions may live within an economy, trade within it, labour for it and contribute daily to its survival, yet remain strangely absent from its most productive opportunities. They are present in the marketplace but invisible to formal credit, active in enterprise but largely unknown to the financial system, economically alive but institutionally unseen.

The question, therefore, is no longer merely how large an economy can become, but who gets to participate in its enlargement. Nigeria’s aspiration to build a trillion-dollar economy makes that question particularly urgent. A larger Gross Domestic Product may announce the expansion of national output, but it does not, by itself, tell us how widely economic agency has travelled. Growth can expand while exclusion survives. Wealth can accumulate while opportunity remains fenced. A country can become statistically richer without sufficiently enlarging the economic citizenship of its people.

There is, after all, a difference between economic enlargement and development. An economy may double in size while reproducing substantially the same geography of privilege and exclusion. Development begins when more citizens acquire the tools, knowledge, protection, institutional connections and opportunities through which their latent capacities can become productive economic agency. It is within this tension between economic ambition and economic participation that the public assignment of Dr. Nurudeen Abubakar Zauro, Technical Adviser to the President on Economic and Financial Inclusion in the Office of the Vice President and a leading figure in the Secretariat of the Presidential Committee on Economic and Financial Inclusion (PreCEFI), deserves serious examination.

The temptation in writing about a public officer is often to begin with the individual: his certificates, appointments, conferences, awards and proximity to power. But perhaps the more useful starting point in understanding Zauro is not the man but the idea. That idea is inclusion, and more particularly, the conviction that belonging to an economy should mean more than merely surviving within its territorial boundaries.

The woman selling produce in a rural market, the artisan working from an informal workshop, the smallholder farmer vulnerable to one failed season and the young graduate possessing a viable idea but no pathway to capital are not necessarily unproductive people. Frequently, they are disconnected people. Their exclusion is not always a deficit of effort. It can be a deficit of institutional connection.

The question that appears to have followed Zauro through his academic preparation, training in accounting and finance, years in central banking and digital financial inclusion, and now his assignment within the Presidency is therefore a fundamental development question: how does the formal economy make room for those whose energy sustains commerce but whose circumstances keep them at the margins of capital, technology, insurance and institutional opportunity?

There is a meaningful difference between discovering an idea after receiving an appointment and arriving at an appointment with a question that has already occupied one’s intellectual and professional imagination. In the first case, the office educates the officer. In the second, preparation and opportunity encounter each other. Zauro’s trajectory increasingly appears closer to the latter.

His Central Bank of Nigeria experience is particularly important in understanding this continuity. Central banking in a developing economy offers an unusual window into the contradictions of development. At one level is the economy of policy rates, payment systems, credit aggregates, financial institutions and regulatory architecture. At another is the lived economy of the roadside trader, the smallholder farmer, the young entrepreneur and the woman whose enterprise may be viable but whose economic existence remains inadequately captured by the structures through which formal capital is allocated.

The important policy question is how to connect these two economies, because that is the last-mile problem of development. A financial system can become increasingly sophisticated without becoming sufficiently inclusive. Digital platforms can multiply while digital illiteracy persists. Credit can expand while small enterprises without conventional collateral remain stranded. Citizens may own bank accounts yet remain without meaningful access to affordable credit, pensions, insurance, investment knowledge or protection against shocks capable of erasing years of household progress. To be banked, therefore, is not necessarily to be economically included, and even to be financially included is not automatically to be financially secure.

This distinction is central to any serious assessment of the policy architecture associated with Zauro’s present assignment. The Aso Accord on Economic and Financial Inclusion represents one expression of this wider thinking. Its significance lies in the attempt to broaden the vocabulary of inclusion beyond ownership of a bank account towards finance, digital infrastructure, financial literacy, underserved communities, women, young people, rural populations and small businesses.

The deeper philosophy is important. Financial inclusion, properly understood, is not merely the act of moving more citizens into banking halls or onto digital payment platforms. It is the dismantling of barriers between human capacity and productive opportunity. The female trader already understands inventory. The farmer understands production. The artisan possesses skill. The young graduate may possess an idea. What is often missing is the connective institutional tissue: identity, finance, information, professional networks, insurance, digital competence and the confidence to navigate increasingly complex formal systems.

Financial inclusion, viewed this way, is not charity. It is productivity policy. Every viable enterprise permanently stranded outside formal finance represents potential output unrealised. Every productive woman unable to access appropriate financial services represents foregone economic agency. Every smallholder farmer left without suitable insurance remains one shock away from losing productive assets. Every digitally excluded citizen risks becoming progressively more peripheral to an economy increasingly organised around data, connectivity and electronic transactions.

This is also why PreCEFI should ultimately be judged not by the number of meetings it convenes but by whether it can help solve one of Nigeria’s most persistent governance problems: institutional fragmentation. Nigeria rarely suffers from an absolute absence of institutions. More often, it suffers from insufficient coordination among them. One institution holds identity data. Another regulates payments. Another supervises financial institutions. Different agencies administer social programmes. State governments possess distinct demographic and economic realities. Development partners operate interventions. Private firms possess technology. Professional bodies hold expertise. Yet the excluded citizen experiences the cumulative consequences when these systems fail to connect. The deficit can therefore be a coordination deficit.

PreCEFI’s potential importance lies in its attempt to create an architecture around this fragmentation. Its engagements with subnational governments, federal institutions, financial-sector actors, professional bodies, private organisations and development partners point towards what might be described as institutional orchestration. The effective public officer in a modern developmental state cannot always command results into existence. Important policy outcomes frequently sit across the statutory boundaries of several institutions. Progress therefore requires persuasion, coalition-building, shared ownership, interoperable systems and the patient translation of different institutional languages into common action. It is an administrative craft that often attracts little theatre but can produce consequential outcomes when sustained with discipline.

No serious account of Zauro’s emerging public-service footprint, however, should construct the mythology of the solitary technocrat. Capacity may reside in an individual, but public service remains an institutional enterprise. Ideas require room. Initiative requires confidence. Responsibility requires trust. Innovation within government frequently requires leaders sufficiently confident in their own authority to identify capable people, expose them to responsibility and allow their preparation to be tested against the difficult realities of governance.

It is here that the role of Zauro’s principals becomes indispensable to an honest understanding of his journey. His Excellency, Senator Kashim Shettima, GCON, Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, has provided strategic political leadership for the economic and financial inclusion agenda within the responsibilities entrusted to his Office. Alongside him, Senator Ibrahim Hassan Hadejia, Deputy Chief of Staff to the President in the Office of the Vice President, occupies an important position within the institutional machinery through which complex assignments are coordinated and sustained.

From the guidance, trust, mentorship, counsel and institutional support of these principals, Zauro has evidently benefited immensely. That fact diminishes neither his preparation nor his exertions. It properly contextualises them. One of the least discussed responsibilities of leadership is the identification and deployment of competence. Nations do not progress merely because talented people exist. Every country has intelligent citizens. Progress occurs when systems of leadership can recognise capacity, assign responsibility, provide guidance and create sufficient institutional space for competent people to contribute towards clearly defined public purposes.

Preparation without opportunity can remain dormant, while opportunity without trust can remain constrained. When preparation encounters the confidence of perceptive leadership, however, public service can become a platform for consequential action. The larger framework remains the mandate of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the administration’s aspiration for a stronger and much larger Nigerian economy. Yet the expansion of national output creates an unavoidable policy obligation: growth must find citizens, and the statistics must eventually acquire faces.

Reform cannot remain indefinitely at the level of macroeconomic abstraction. Its social and political legitimacy must ultimately be encountered in opportunity, enterprise, jobs, resilience and the expanded ability of citizens to participate productively in economic life. This is where the work of inclusion meets the broader presidential mandate. The President provides the national reform and development direction. The Vice President provides strategic leadership across responsibilities entrusted to his Office. The Deputy Chief of Staff supports the coordination required to move complex assignments through government. Technical officers such as Zauro are given specialised responsibilities through which aspects of the larger ambition may acquire operational form. The technical officer does not work outside the national blueprint. He works within it.

Several initiatives associated with the present inclusion agenda illuminate the thinking behind this work. The ambition to train millions of Nigerians in financial inclusion and literacy, including through collaboration with professional bodies, rests on an important development premise: capacity is infrastructure. Infrastructure, in the conventional imagination, is concrete, steel, electricity, rail and fibre. These are indispensable, but there is another infrastructure without which physical and technological investments may yield far less than their potential. That infrastructure is human competence.

A sophisticated financial system has limited developmental reach when millions lack the knowledge and confidence required to navigate it. A digital platform is only as inclusive as the ability of its intended users to understand and use it safely. Credit availability means little to a potential entrepreneur who cannot formalise, structure or communicate the economics of an enterprise. A road connects places, while knowledge connects people to possibilities. Both are infrastructures of development.

The same logic applies to women’s economic participation. Initiatives such as She’s Included should not be understood as exercises in benevolence. Women’s economic inclusion is economic arithmetic. A society cannot constrain the productive capacity of a substantial proportion of its population and still expect to optimise national output. The exclusion of women from finance, skills, networks and capital represents foregone enterprise, weakened household resilience and diminished national productivity.

Effective inclusion, however, also requires recognising that uniformity is not equity. A female micro-entrepreneur operating informally, carrying disproportionate care responsibilities and possessing little conventional collateral does not encounter the financial system from the same starting position as a salaried professional. Giving both the same product and declaring the system inclusive is to confuse sameness with fairness. The test of a gender-responsive inclusion agenda is therefore not how many women attend an event or open an account, but whether more women acquire durable economic agency.

That distinction brings us to the most important part of the discussion: the next frontier. The work associated with Zauro and PreCEFI may have established a compelling architecture of intention, but public policy eventually encounters its hardest question after the communiqués, accords, committees, partnerships and launches have been completed. The question is what actually changed.

For the present inclusion agenda to mature into a durable national institution, and for Zauro himself to become even more effective in the assignment entrusted to him, the next phase should move decisively from policy mobilisation towards an independently measurable architecture of outcomes.

The first requirement is a public inclusion scorecard. Nigeria should be able to see, at regular intervals and preferably at state and local levels, not merely how many citizens possess accounts but how many actively save, obtain responsible credit, hold insurance, use digital financial services safely, build viable enterprises and demonstrate improved financial resilience. What gets announced attracts attention, but what gets measured attracts accountability.

The second requirement is to move from counting beneficiaries to tracking developmental journeys. Training millions of people may be impressive as an output, but the more consequential questions arise afterwards. How many acquired demonstrable competence? How many formalised enterprises? How many accessed appropriate finance? How many increased revenue, created employment or improved household resilience? Public policy should not confuse reach with impact.

The third requirement is an independent evaluation mechanism. PreCEFI and its partners should periodically invite credible universities, research institutions and independent evaluators to assess major interventions against published baselines and targets. The purpose would not be to embarrass government but to protect policy from the dangers of self-congratulation. Serious institutions learn in public, and strong policy leadership should be confident enough to allow evidence to confirm success, identify weaknesses and guide correction.

The fourth requirement is a stronger subnational delivery architecture. Exclusion is experienced locally even when policy is designed nationally. The constraints confronting a woman entrepreneur in Lagos may differ substantially from those facing a farmer in Kebbi, a trader in Aba or a pastoral community in Adamawa. A national strategy therefore needs state-level delivery compacts, locally disaggregated data and measurable responsibilities for implementation partners. Abuja can coordinate inclusion, but it cannot manufacture every last mile.

The fifth requirement is deeper integration of Nigeria’s emerging digital public infrastructure. Identity, payments and appropriately governed data-sharing systems should increasingly work together so that citizens do not repeatedly prove their existence to disconnected institutions. Interoperability, however, must be accompanied by strong privacy, cybersecurity, consumer protection and accessible grievance-redress mechanisms. The excluded citizen should not be invited into the digital economy only to become the easiest victim within it.

The sixth requirement is the creation of a permanent citizen feedback architecture. The people for whom inclusion policies are designed should have structured mechanisms for reporting what works, what excludes them and where products or programmes fail. Policy elites often understand systems from the perspective of those who design them, while citizens experience them from the point at which they break down. That knowledge is itself valuable data and should be systematically incorporated into programme design and evaluation.

The seventh requirement is institutional permanence. The ultimate test of PreCEFI will be whether its work becomes embedded deeply enough in national and subnational systems to survive individual officeholders and political transitions. Personality may mobilise an agenda, but institutions must preserve it. The strongest legacy Zauro and his colleagues can build would therefore not merely be a collection of successful programmes, but an inclusion architecture capable of sustaining itself beyond the tenure of any particular administration or public officer.

These are not arguments against Zauro’s work. They are arguments for its maturation. Indeed, avoiding hagiography requires acknowledging that the significance of a public officer lies not in being beyond criticism but in being capable of converting scrutiny into better public outcomes. For Zauro, this may be the deeper meaning of the trust reposed in him by his principals. Trust in public service is not a decoration. It is a debt payable in results.

Gratitude to President Tinubu for the national mandate within which the assignment finds its purpose, to Vice President Shettima for the guidance, mentorship, confidence and strategic leadership that have given Zauro’s preparation room for expression, and to Senator Hadejia for the counsel, institutional support and coordination surrounding the assignment should not merely be matters of protocol. They are part of the moral story of opportunity.

The greatest tribute to confidence, however, is not repeated acknowledgement. It is the work that makes the trust count. It is ensuring that the privilege of serving close to the centre of power is converted into value for people who may never enter the gates of the Presidential Villa, never sit at a policy roundtable and never know the names of those designing the frameworks that shape their economic lives.

Those citizens include the woman seeking capital to enlarge h

By Ahmed Usman

In the years following independence, Northern Nigeria stood at the forefront of the country’s economic progress. The region’s agricultural output, symbolised by the famous groundnut pyramids of Kano and by thriving cotton production across the savannah belt, powered employment, export earnings, and real-sector development. For a time, Northern Nigeria was not only a major driver of Nigeria’s economy but also one of the most economically vibrant regions on the African continent. Today, however, the region finds itself at a critical crossroads.

Over the past two decades, Northern Nigeria has faced a combination of security, economic, and structural challenges that have slowed its development trajectory. The rise of insurgency in the North-East, banditry and cattle rustling in parts of the North-West, and persistent farmers–herders conflicts have disrupted livelihoods, weakened agricultural production, and discouraged investment. These crises have inflicted enormous human and economic costs not only on the region but also on the Nigerian economy as a whole.

Yet security challenges alone do not explain the region’s economic difficulties. The deeper problem lies in the failure to convert the region’s extraordinary demographic and natural advantages into sustained economic growth.

Northern Nigeria possesses some of the most significant development assets in the country. The region accounts for more than 60 per cent of Nigeria’s population and contains over 80 per cent of the country’s arable land. It also receives abundant sunlight, suitable for solar power generation, and hosts numerous dams capable of supporting large-scale irrigation and energy production.

Despite these advantages, the region continues to record some of Nigeria’s most troubling development indicators. Poverty levels remain among the highest in the country. Youth unemployment is widespread. The region also accounts for about 20 million out-of-school children, one of the highest figures worldwide. Internally generated revenue in many northern states remains low, limiting the fiscal capacity needed to finance development.

This paradox of abundant resources alongside persistent poverty highlights the urgency of a new development strategy to transform its demographic advantages into a true demographic dividend.

At the heart of the solution lies the revival of the real sector. For too long, Nigeria’s growth model has leaned heavily on the service sector and oil revenues, sectors that generate limited employment relative to the country’s rapidly expanding workforce. Each year, millions of young Nigerians enter the labour market, yet the economy struggles to create sufficient productive jobs. Sustainable and inclusive growth will require renewed investment in sectors capable of generating large-scale employment. Agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, and renewable energy stand out as areas where Northern Nigeria holds a natural comparative advantage.

Agriculture in particular offers a powerful pathway for economic transformation. With vast fertile land and favourable climatic conditions, the region has the potential to become Nigeria’s primary agricultural hub once again. Expanding irrigation farming, adopting modern agricultural technologies, improving access to inputs, and strengthening agricultural value chains could dramatically increase productivity while generating millions of rural jobs. But agriculture alone will not be enough. The next stage of development must focus on building strong agro-industrial linkages. Processing agricultural products locally rather than exporting raw commodities can significantly increase value addition, stimulate rural industries, and expand export opportunities.

Infrastructure will be critical to unlocking these opportunities. Reliable electricity, modern road networks, efficient storage systems, and improved logistics are essential for connecting farmers, manufacturers, and entrepreneurs to national and global markets. The region’s extensive dam infrastructure already provides enormous potential for irrigation agriculture and renewable energy if properly utilised.

Equally important is the need to invest in human capital. Northern Nigeria’s youthful population represents one of the region’s greatest assets, but only if young people are equipped with the education, skills, and opportunities needed to participate in a modern economy. Expanding access to quality education, strengthening vocational training, and promoting the development of technical skills must become central pillars of the region’s development strategy.

Yet economic progress ultimately depends on the strength of institutions. Transparent governance, accountable public institutions, and a regulatory environment that encourages private investment are essential for sustainable development. Reducing bureaucratic barriers, strengthening property rights, and improving the ease of doing business will be critical for attracting both domestic and foreign investment.

History shows that development trajectories can change when policy direction aligns with economic potential. Northern Nigeria once played a central role in powering Nigeria’s economic progress. There is no reason it cannot do so again.

The challenges facing the region are significant, but they are not insurmountable. With strategic investments, stronger institutions, and a renewed focus on the real sector, Northern Nigeria can unlock the immense potential of its land, its resources, and most importantly, its people. The region’s future should not be determined by the weight of its challenges but by the boldness of its choices. If those choices are made wisely, Northern Nigeria could once again emerge as one of the most powerful engines of economic growth in the country and perhaps on the continent.

By Muhammad Umar Shehu

Nigeria’s economic crisis is often discussed in technical language. We talk about inflation rates, exchange rates, GDP growth, fiscal deficits, and monetary tightening. Experts debate policy direction, subsidy removal, and currency reforms. Yet beneath all these discussions lies a deeper truth that we are reluctant to confront: Nigeria’s economic crisis is, at its core, a moral crisis.

In Adam Smith and Islam, Waseem Naser reminds us that economics was never meant to be detached from ethics. Adam Smith, widely regarded as the father of modern economics, was first a moral philosopher. Before writing The Wealth of Nations, he wrote The Theory of Moral Sentiments, where he emphasised sympathy, justice, and moral restraint. Markets, in his view, could not function in isolation from moral responsibility.

Islamic economic thought shares this foundation. Trade is encouraged, wealth is permitted, and enterprise is respected. But all of these operate within firm moral boundaries. Justice is non-negotiable. Exploitation is forbidden. Wealth carries responsibility. Accountability is certain.

When we examine Nigeria’s current situation through this lens, the picture becomes clearer.

Inflation continues to erode the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. The naira struggles for stability. Youth unemployment remains alarmingly high. The cost of food and transportation has risen beyond the reach of many families. These are economic realities. But they are also symptoms of deeper institutional and moral weaknesses.

An economy cannot thrive where corruption undermines trust. Adam Smith insisted that justice is the main pillar that upholds society. Once justice collapses, society itself begins to crack. In Nigeria, public funds are routinely mismanaged, contracts are inflated, and accountability mechanisms are weak. This is not merely inefficiency. It is moral decay.

Islamic principles reinforce this argument. Leadership is considered a trust. Public office is an amanah, not a private investment opportunity. When leadership becomes a means of personal enrichment, the moral foundation of governance collapses. What follows is predictable: inequality widens, poverty deepens, and citizens lose faith in the system.

The recent economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, may have theoretical justification. Many economists argue they were long overdue. However, reform without structured social protection reflects a failure of moral sensitivity. When policies disproportionately burden the poor while elites remain insulated, justice is compromised.

Adam Smith did not promote greed. He believed self-interest operates within moral boundaries shaped by social conscience. Islam teaches a similar balance. Wealth creation is legitimate, but not at the expense of human dignity. In Nigeria, however, profit often overrides public welfare.

Consider the widening gap between political elites and ordinary citizens. Luxury convoys move through streets where citizens struggle to afford basic commodities. Public spending priorities often appear disconnected from public suffering. This visible inequality damages more than economic stability. It damages national unity.

Islamic economic thought provides mechanisms for social balance, such as zakat and structured redistribution. These are not acts of charity alone. They are instruments of justice. In Nigeria, social intervention programs frequently suffer from poor targeting, lack of transparency, and political manipulation. The result is minimal impact and widespread distrust.

Nigeria does not lack natural resources. It does not lack human capital. What it lacks is consistent ethical leadership and institutional discipline. An economy built on fragile moral foundations cannot stand firm.

The lesson from both Adam Smith’s moral philosophy and Islamic economic principles is straightforward. Markets require trust. Trust requires justice. Justice requires accountability. Without these elements, reforms remain cosmetic.

If Nigeria is to move forward, economic reconstruction must be accompanied by moral reconstruction. Transparency must replace opacity. Accountability must replace impunity. Public service must replace personal gain.

Economic indicators may improve temporarily, but without ethical grounding, instability will return. Sustainable growth demands more than sound monetary policy. It demands character in leadership and integrity in institutions.

Nigeria’s future will not be secured by technical adjustments alone. It will be secured when justice becomes the true foundation of governance.

Until then, our economic crisis will remain what it has always been: a reflection of a deeper moral failure.

Muhammad Umar Shehu wrote from Gombe. He can be reached via: umarmuhammadshehu2@gmail.com.

By Nasiru Ibrahim 

Limited information in the market leads to inefficiency and misallocation of resources. A low-quality product or service can command a higher price, while high-skilled labour may receive lower wages. A seller with a high-quality product or service may incur losses because buyers cannot easily verify quality and are unwilling to pay a premium, fearing they may be overpaying for a low-quality alternative.

For example, a faulty car may sell at a high price because buyers lack technical knowledge, rely on appearances, brand reputation, or sellers’ claims, and face high inspection costs. A firm that chooses to be honest may lose by earning a lower profit margin because dishonest competitors exaggerate quality, cut corners, or hide defects while charging similar prices.

A quack or less-skilled consultant with fewer credentials and a weak track record may secure contracts faster due to information gaps, strong social networks, aggressive self-marketing, and clients’ inability to assess true competence before hiring.

In many markets, buyers seek to identify quality products or services by looking for higher prices, good public relations, branding, and heavy advertising. Poor-quality products and inefficient firms can imitate these signals, so both high- and low-quality products are often sold at roughly the same price. Under rational expectations, sellers understand that buyers believe higher prices signal higher quality. Buyers, lacking better information, rely on price as a shortcut, and low-quality sellers exploit this belief, leading to market failure similar to Akerlof’s Market for Lemons.

Demand for Experts, Agents, and Intermediaries

Information asymmetry increases the demand for experts, agents, consultants, brokers, and intermediaries who can distinguish good quality from bad. These agents help consumers get better deals and higher-quality products or services.

While this creates jobs, it does not necessarily solve consumer exploitation. Agents may collude with sellers, prioritise commissions over client welfare, exploit client ignorance, or add extra layers of cost without improving quality.

For example, if tax policy were simple and clearly understood, few people would need tax consultants. Complex systems create jobs for consultants and financial literacy experts. While this raises incomes and GDP, it can also raise prices because the cost of intermediaries is embedded in goods and services, contributing to inflation.

Efficiency vs Employment Trade-Off

Reducing information asymmetry improves efficiency but can increase unemployment in the short run. Many jobs—brokers, consultants, agents, and middlemen—exist mainly because consumers lack information. When governments improve transparency through clear regulations, digital platforms, and public data, fewer intermediaries are needed. As a result, demand for these expert roles declines, leading to job losses.

This creates a policy trade-off: greater transparency improves efficiency but reduces employment in information-based intermediary jobs. To manage this, governments should invest in retraining and help displaced workers move into sectors where skills add real value rather than exploiting information gaps.

Moral Hazard—Buyers Can Also Cheat

Moral hazard occurs after a transaction, when one party changes behaviour because costs are partly borne by the other party. Buyers are not always passive; they may also cheat when incentives allow.

Examples include tenants damaging rented property because repair costs are borne by landlords, insured individuals exaggerating losses, clients hiding information or misusing professional advice, and borrowers diverting loans to unintended uses.

Buyer-side moral hazard worsens inefficiency. Sellers respond by raising prices, tightening contracts, reducing quality, or exiting the market. Honest buyers then face higher costs and fewer choices, while resources are allocated to monitoring and enforcement rather than to productive activity. Information asymmetry is therefore two-sided, and policies must address both adverse selection and moral hazard through better contracts, monitoring, and enforcement.

Guarantees, Warranties, and Mixed-Quality Equilibrium

Guarantees and warranties are often introduced to signal product quality. High-quality sellers are willing to offer guarantees because defects are less likely, which should push low-quality products out of the market.

However, guarantees also create buyer-side moral hazard. Buyers may reduce care, overuse, or deliberately damage products because repairs or replacements are covered. This increases warranty costs for all producers.

High-quality firms may respond by raising prices, limiting coverage, or reducing quality investment. Low-quality firms can mimic guarantees by pricing in expected abuse. As a result, good and bad products coexist in equilibrium, despite the presence of guarantees. Guarantees improve trust but do not fully resolve market failure. Moral hazard shifts costs rather than eliminating inefficiency.

Digital Platforms, Formalization, and Consumer Protection

E-commerce and digital marketing platforms reduce information asymmetry by increasing price transparency, reviews, ratings, comparisons, and direct access to sellers. These tools reduce reliance on intermediaries and help consumers verify quality.

In cities like Abuja, Port Harcourt, and Lagos, consumers can reduce exploitation by:

Asking for the previous selling price and comparing across sellers.

Signaling willingness to switch if the price is unfair.

Checking online prices, reviews, or multiple shops to reduce information asymmetry!

Government can also reduce information asymmetry by formalizing markets, which improves record-keeping, transparency, standardization, and contract enforcement. Clear, fair, and incentive-based tax systems encourage voluntary compliance, provide access to credit, legal protection, and government contracts.

The government may invest ₦100 million in upgrading informal markets in Kano, Lagos, and Port Harcourt and taxing ₦20 million annually per market allows the government to recover costs within five years while boosting GDP and creating jobs.

Without incentives, multiple overlapping taxes increase compliance costs and deepen informality. Corruption, waste, and misuse of funds reduce citizen trust. Transparent, fair, and accountable government policies promote efficiency, formalisation, and market growth, while distrust, overconfidence, and policy failures harm the economy.

Ibrahim is a graduate of Economics from Bayero University, Kano and can be reached via nasirfirji4@gmail.com.

By Ahmed Usman

As the year 2025 draws to a close, moments of reflection naturally set in, especially for an economy that has endured sharp shocks, painful adjustments, and cautious reforms. In an era of global economic turbulence marked by uneven commodity prices, persistently tight financial conditions, rising geopolitical tensions, regional insecurity, and an international retreat from development aid, many emerging economies have suffered currency instability, capital flight, and fiscal distress. 

For Nigeria, however, the year presents an unusual picture. Amid global uncertainty and domestic strain, key economic indicators are beginning to stabilise, prompting a deeper question about whether the country is merely ending the year on a fortunate note or finally turning a policy-driven corner.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by about 3.9 per cent in 2025, with growth expected to strengthen modestly to around 4.1 per cent in 2026, driven by macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts across key sectors. While these numbers may not yet place Nigeria among the world’s fastest-growing economies, they mark a notable improvement from the passive growth of recent years and signal a gradual return of confidence.

One of the most significant recent developments is Nigeria’s GDP rebasing, which revealed that the economy is about 30 per cent larger than previously estimated. This adjustment is not merely a statistical exercise. It reflects the growing importance of services, digital trade, creative industries, and telecommunications, sectors that employ millions of Nigerians, particularly young people.

For households, a larger and more diversified economy is essential because it reduces overdependence on oil and expands opportunities for income outside traditional sectors. For policymakers, it improves Nigeria’s standing in global markets and provides a clearer picture of where growth is coming from, enabling more targeted policies.

The rebasing has also reshaped Nigeria’s debt profile. The debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at about 40 per cent, well below the levels seen in many peer emerging economies. More importantly, debt service as a share of government revenue has fallen to below 50 per cent, from much higher levels in previous years. This easing of fiscal pressure means the government now has slightly more flexibility to allocate resources to infrastructure, education, healthcare, and social protection. However, the challenge remains that Nigeria’s revenue base remains among the weakest globally, making sustained revenue mobilisation critical.

Perhaps the most tangible improvement for households and businesses has come from the foreign exchange market. After years of volatility and sharp depreciation, recent months have seen a reduction in exchange rate volatility, a narrowing of the gap between official and parallel market rates, and a gradual buildup of external reserves, now estimated at over $36 billion. This stabilisation has practical consequences. It helps slow imported inflation, reducing pressure on food, fuel, and medicine prices. Foreign portfolio inflows have also picked up, reflecting renewed investor confidence.

Nigeria’s capital markets are also telling a positive story. The stock market is enjoying its strongest rally in nearly two decades, with the All-Share Index posting record gains. This surge reflects expectations of improved corporate earnings and better macroeconomic coordination. Similarly, Nigeria’s bond market has entered a bullish phase, with falling yields and strong demand from both domestic and foreign investors. Lower bond yields reduce government borrowing costs and can eventually translate into lower interest rates for businesses and households seeking credit.

After reaching painful highs, inflation (food inflation) has begun to ease, FX conditions have improved, and supply pressures have eased. Although prices remain elevated, the slowdown in food prices offers some relief to households whose purchasing power has been severely eroded over the past two years.

Perhaps the most encouraging fiscal development is the sharp rise in government revenue. This improvement reflects tax administration reforms, subsidy removal, and better compliance. Higher revenue is central to Nigeria’s long-term stability. It reduces reliance on borrowing, strengthens public services, and allows targeted social spending to cushion vulnerable households from reform-related shocks.

Despite these gains, Nigeria’s resilience should not be mistaken for strength. The economy remains vulnerable to oil price swings, climate shocks, global financial tightening, and domestic security challenges. Monetary pressures, fiscal constraints, and external risks continue to interact in ways that could quickly reverse progress.

However, resilience built on sound fiscal management, credible monetary policy, and structural reform is fundamentally different from resilience driven by temporary luck. Strengthening domestic revenue, managing debt prudently, investing in human capital, and deepening diversification are not optional; they are essential.

Is the question whether Nigeria’s current resilience is the product of good policies or good luck? The evidence increasingly points toward policy-driven stabilisation, though aided by favourable timing and improved coordination.

The fundamentals are improving, confidence is returning, and the economy is stronger than it has been in years. The challenge now is to convert this fragile resilience into inclusive and durable growth, growth that raises living standards, creates jobs, and restores hope for millions of households.

Ahmed Usman wrote via ahmedusmanbox@gmail.com.

By Dr Salisu Uba FCIPS

The Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) has approved a new membership fee structure for Nigeria, allowing procurement professionals to pay in Naira from 1 December 2025. The decision includes a reduction in fees, marking a significant shift for one of the largest professional communities within the institute.

The change follows years of rising financial pressure linked to foreign currency payments, which many practitioners said had limited access to professional qualifications and continuous development.

Local Currency Move Seen as Major Relief

Nigerian members have long argued that payment in foreign currency placed an unnecessary strain on practitioners working in an economy affected by inflation and exchange rate volatility. The shift to Naira is expected to broaden access to certification and support career progression for early and mid-level professionals.

The announcement was delivered by the CIPS Nigeria Country Director, Chukwudi Uche, at the institute’s Port Harcourt symposium in late November. The event brought together industry leaders to discuss supply chain collaboration and tax policy.

A Step with Wider Professional Consequences

CIPS, regarded as the global benchmark for procurement standards, plays a central role in shaping skills, ethics, and governance across the profession. Its qualifications are commonly required for senior roles across the public and private sectors, and its code of conduct is widely used to guide responsible practice.

In Nigeria, CIPS has been instrumental in supporting capacity building, improving transparency, and raising the overall standard of procurement governance. The institute has worked with government agencies, private sector organisations, and development partners to improve processes and strengthen accountability.

Industry experts say the latest decision could encourage greater participation in formal training programmes and increase the number of qualified professionals available to organisations that rely on strong procurement governance.

Procurement’s Role in National Development

Procurement plays a direct role in national development by shaping how public funds are spent and how essential goods and services are delivered. Poor procurement decisions can delay infrastructure, inflate project costs, and weaken accountability. Strong procurement systems support industrial growth, improve public services, and help build competitive local supply chains.

A more accessible professional pathway through CIPS is expected to expand the pool of trained experts who can support national development goals. This includes improved contract management, better risk control, and more effective engagement with local suppliers.

Integrity and Expertise Seen as Priorities

With the revised fee structure now in place, I hope to see more organisations and individual practitioners in Nigeria work closely with qualified experts to protect the integrity of procurement systems. Both public and private sector projects rely heavily on competent professionals who understand governance, ethics, and value-for-money. Strengthening professional capability is essential if Nigeria is to reduce waste, improve transparency, and support long-term development.

A Community Achievement

The fee revision is the result of extensive engagement across the Nigerian membership base. The leadership of Ben Farrell and Sam Achampong has been widely acknowledged, along with the contributions of members who have advocated for reform through various channels. The CIPS Nigeria Country Office has also played a central role in pushing for the change.

More information on the revised fees is expected to be released by CIPS in the coming days.

Dr Salisu Uba is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply and the Chief Executive Officer of NatQuest, a leading technology-enabled supply chain company.

By Abdullahi Abubakar Lamido 

When Nigeria first introduced Islamic banking more than a decade ago, a section of the public, especially some Christian leaders, cried foul. They labelled it an attempt to Islamise the nation. The word Islamic became synonymous with suspicion. Yet, history has since given its verdict. The same Islamic banking and finance that was once denounced as a tool for religious expansion has now become one of the most credible components of Nigeria’s financial system. Today, the government of Nigeria, regardless of faith or political party, routinely issues Sukuk (Islamic bonds) to finance national infrastructure, build roads, and other developmental projects. 

If Islamic banking did not Islamise Nigeria, how on earth will the halal economy, a trade-based development initiative, suddenly do so?

Unfortunately, some commentators continue to see through the fog of prejudice rather than the lens of global economics. The recently developed Nigerian National Halal Economy Strategy is not a religious project. It is an economic vision. It seeks to position Nigeria within a rapidly expanding global market that respects ethics, transparency, environmental responsibility, and product integrity; values shared by all civilisations, not by Muslims alone.

Globally, the halal economy is estimated at USD 2.3 trillion, excluding Islamic finance. It is growing at an annual rate of around 20 per cent, making it one of the fastest-expanding consumer markets in the world, valued at about USD 560 billion each year. The halal industry, initially rooted in food and beverages, has long transcended its traditional boundaries. It now spans pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, health products, toiletries, medical devices, and even service sectors such as logistics, marketing, media, packaging, branding, and finance. With rising affluence and awareness among global consumers, it has further extended to halal tourism, hospitality, fashion, and lifestyle services.

This development is not driven by Muslims alone. Indeed, the modern halal market is non-exclusive. Increasingly, non-Muslim consumers associate halal with ethical consumerism, animal welfare, environmental stewardship, and quality assurance. The label “halal” has evolved into a global mark of trust, symbolising cleanliness, safety, and ethical production.

Countries far removed from Islam, such as the United States, the Netherlands, Russia, China, and South Africa, are already major players in the halal economy. In the United States, the halal market is worth USD 12 billion annually, with halal food sales growing by more than 70 per cent since 1995. Over 90 per cent of U.S. dry dairy ingredient manufacturers now produce halal products, primarily for export.

In the Netherlands, where Muslims are barely a tenth of the population, non-Muslim Dutch consumers spend approximately USD 3 billion annually on halal food. In the United Kingdom, six million people consume halal meat, three times the Muslim population. These figures prove one thing: halal has gone mainstream. Even Russia is experiencing explosive growth in its halal sector, with domestic demand rising by 30-40 per cent annually. The country now produces around 65,000 tonnes of halal meat each year and hosts major expos such as the Moscow Halal Expo and KazanHalal.

China, with its 23 million Muslims, records 10 per cent annual growth in its halal industry, with trade worth USD 2.1 billion and export products valued at USD 10 million annually from the Ningxia region alone.

Africa, too, is awakening to this opportunity. South Africa—with only two per cent of its population being Muslim—is now one of the five largest producers of halal products globally, thanks to a robust certification infrastructure. Kenya, with a fast-growing halal certification regime, already has more than 150 certified companies serving local and regional markets.

Nigeria, with its vast agricultural resources, strategic location, and large Muslim population, stands at the crossroads of opportunity. The halal economy offers three immediate advantages:

1. Export Expansion: By developing credible halal certification and production infrastructure, Nigeria can unlock access to markets worth over USD 2 trillion, exporting beef, poultry, processed foods, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and other halal-compliant goods. Nigerian products can enter Middle Eastern and Asian markets that strictly demand halal certification.

2. Job Creation and SME Growth: The halal economy stimulates employment across value chains—from farm to factory, logistics, certification, branding, and export marketing. It empowers micro and small enterprises while ensuring compliance with ethical standards that appeal to both local and international consumers.

3. National Image and Ethical Standards: Halal certification ensures higher hygiene, traceability, and environmental protection. It is compatible with international standards like ISO and HACCP, thereby enhancing Nigeria’s global competitiveness. In essence, promoting halal is promoting quality, sustainability, and integrity—values that no religion should reject.

The critics who fear the halal roadmap as a step toward Islamisation fail to recognise that halal is an economic term before it is a theological one in this context. It stands for what is wholesome, safe, clean, traceable, and socially responsible. These values are not confined to Islam. They are embedded in Christianity, Judaism, and secular ethics alike.

The halal economy represents a fusion of faith and fairness, ethics and enterprise. It provides a model for a more responsible economic system—precisely the kind of moral economy the world craves in the aftermath of global financial and environmental crises.

When the debate over Islamic banking first arose, the same fear-mongering dominated the headlines. Yet, today, Islamic finance has built roads, schools, and hospitals across Nigeria through Sukuk and other Shari’ah-compliant financing. Christian engineers, contractors, and civil servants have benefitted immensely. The country’s Christian-majority states have received as much as the Muslim ones. No mosque was built, no church destroyed, and no constitution rewritten.

If Islamic banking did not Islamise Nigeria, how will halal exports do so? On the contrary, the halal economy promises to diversify Nigeria’s trade, create jobs, enhance foreign exchange earnings, and promote industrial standards that protect all consumers, Muslims and non-Muslims alike.

Nigeria cannot afford to watch from the sidelines while other nations—Christian, secular, and atheist alike—harvest the fruits of the halal economy. The world is shifting toward ethical consumption, sustainability, and traceable production. The halal brand, far from being divisive, is a passport to global markets.

The Nigeria National Halal Economy Strategy is not about religion; it is about relevance. It is about integrating Nigeria into the trillion-dollar value chain that prizes quality, fairness, and responsibility. Those who see crisis where there is opportunity risk being on the wrong side of history, just as those who once opposed Islamic banking and finance, now benefit from Sukuk-financed roads.

The celebration of the halal economy is not the planting of tomorrow’s crisis; it is the harvest of tomorrow’s prosperity for every Nigerian, regardless of faith. It is time we remove the caps of emotion and prejudice and wear the lenses of reason, tolerance, and progress. Nigeria must embrace every opportunity that promises shared prosperity, job creation, and national development. The halal economy is not about division—it is about direction. It is about placing our nation on the map of global relevance, productivity, and ethical growth. So help us God. 

Amir Lamido wrote from Abuja via lamidomabudi@gmail.com.

By Hadiza Abdulkadir

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marked the second anniversary of his administration on Wednesday with an optimistic national address highlighting the government’s achievements and reaffirming commitment to economic reform, national security, and human capital development.

Speaking from the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, President Tinubu declared that his administration had made “undeniable progress” despite the sacrifices demanded of citizens, especially following the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates.

“We are halfway through the journey that began 24 months ago. Today, I proudly affirm that our economic reforms are working,” he said, citing improvements such as easing inflation, increased foreign reserves, and higher state revenues.

According to the President, the federal government recorded over ₦6 trillion in revenue in Q1 2025 and successfully reduced the fiscal deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024. Additionally, the country’s net external reserves rose sharply to over $23 billion by the end of 2024, a fivefold increase from the previous year.

In the energy sector, Tinubu noted a 400% increase in oil rig activity since 2021 and over $8 billion in new investments. “We have stabilised our economy and are now better positioned for growth and global shocks,” he added.

The President also highlighted reforms in taxation, infrastructure development, and the health sector. He announced the expansion of primary healthcare centres, the establishment of new cancer treatment centres, and a tax policy overhaul aimed at supporting low-income households and small businesses.

“Together, we are creating a system where prosperity is shared, and no one is left behind,” he said.

By Muhammad Sulaiman

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has reiterated his administration’s commitment to inclusive economic growth, declaring that the country’s economic resilience is beginning to yield tangible benefits for citizens across sectors.

Addressing the nation on the second anniversary of his government, President Tinubu described 2025 as a year of fiscal turnaround and recovery, driven by bold reforms under the Renewed Hope Agenda.

“Despite the bump in the cost of living, we have made undeniable progress,” he stated, noting improvements in inflation, food prices, and investor confidence.

A key highlight of the President’s remarks was the government’s aggressive tax reform agenda, which pushed the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10% to over 13.5% within a year. Tinubu explained that this success was made possible by simplifying tax policies and offering relief for low-income households and small businesses.

“We are eliminating the burden of multiple taxation and introducing a fairer tax system. Essential services like food, healthcare, and education will attract 0% VAT,” he announced.

President Tinubu also underscored the importance of sustainable national finances, stating that wasteful and opaque tax waivers had been abolished in favour of targeted incentives supporting high-impact sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology.

The administration is establishing an independent Tax Ombudsman to ensure accountability. The President says this move will protect small businesses and vulnerable taxpayers.

“We are creating an economy where investment is welcome, businesses can thrive, and every Nigerian can benefit from shared prosperity,” he added.

The President noted that subnational governments had also reaped the benefits of the reforms, with an increase of over ₦6 trillion in state revenues in 2024. This has enabled them to meet debt obligations and invest more in critical infrastructure.

“Our reforms are not just fiscal adjustments. They are about restoring confidence, strengthening institutions, and building a foundation for future generations,” Tinubu concluded.

By Anas Abbas

As the joyful Sallah festival approaches, local chicken, broiler chicken, and a unique breed known as “merger” producers are expressing concerns over a significant drop in patronage, which raises worries about the future of their businesses.

Traditionally, this festive season witnesses a surge in demand for chicken as families prepare to celebrate with delicious meals. However, this year, many farmers are facing an unprecedented challenge, including the high cost of chicken feed, losses of the chickens due to hot weather conditions, and low patronage.

In an interview with The Daily Reality, Mallam Shuaibu Ismail, a seasoned chicken seller and rearer, expressed his disappointment. “In previous years, we would have sold out most of our stock by now,” he said. “This time, however, the orders have been minimal, and it’s worrying. We rely on this season to sustain our families and businesses throughout the year.”

“Due to economic hardship, people are not supporting the local chicken businesses, and the chickens have been affected by an unexpected disease,” he added.

Jamila Sulaiman, a broiler rearer, expressed, “Sallah is usually a time of joy for us. We prepare for months in advance, but this year, many customers seem hesitant to buy. We hope that as the festival gets closer, people will start to purchase more, as the chickens are dying because of the sunny weather. Yesterday morning, I found three dead,” she stated.

“If people don’t buy, we will be at great risk as the price of broiler feed approaches 26000, compared to last year N8000,” she added.

The reasons for the low patronage are varied. Some producers attribute it to the rising cost of living and inflation, which have made it difficult for families to budget for festive meals. Others believe that changing consumer preferences and increased competition from larger poultry suppliers may also be contributing factors.

Despite these challenges, local rearers remain hopeful that demand will increase as Sallah approaches. “We are optimistic that people will remember the significance of Sallah meat for their families,” said Isuhu Wada.

“Purchasing the chicken benefits us and also boosts our economy, as we will spend the money on something else.”

As the festival approaches, local chicken farmers are urging consumers to support their businesses and keep the spirit of Sallah alive through communal meals and community support.