Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

By Abdulhamid Abdullahi Aliyu

In a move that has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political landscape, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has officially parted ways with the All Progressives Congress (APC) and pitched his tent with the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

While party defections are common in Nigerian politics, El-Rufai’s departure from the ruling party carries significant political implications that could alter the dynamics leading up to the 2027 elections.

For a man instrumental in the formation of the APC and a staunch ally of former President Muhammadu Buhari, El-Rufai’s departure raises critical questions. Is this a strategic move to remain politically relevant? A protest against President Bola Tinubu’s leadership? Or does it signal widening cracks within the APC that could deepen in the coming years?

El-Rufai’s political journey within the APC has been marked by loyalty, controversy, and influence. As a key figure in the party’s 2015 victory over the PDP, he was regarded as one of the strongest voices in Buhari’s inner circle.

His tenure as Kaduna governor further solidified his image as a reformist, albeit one who often courted controversy. From restructuring Kaduna’s civil service to his hardline stance on security issues, El-Rufai commanded attention. Under Buhari, he wielded significant influence, not just within Kaduna but on the national stage.

Many expected him to secure a prominent role in Tinubu’s government. However, cracks began to show when he was dropped from the ministerial list, allegedly over security concerns flagged by the National Security Adviser.

El-Rufai’s departure from the APC is not a hasty decision; it represents the culmination of increasing frustration. His rejection as a minister was perceived by many as a calculated marginalization, signaling the start of his estrangement from the ruling party’s core decision-making processes. 

Reports suggest he became increasingly disillusioned with Tinubu’s governance style, particularly in handling economic and security challenges. The former governor is known for his bluntness, and sources indicate that his inability to influence policies within the APC played a significant role in his decision.

While his supporters argue that his move to the SDP is based on principle, critics suggest it is driven by personal ambition—positioning himself for a possible political comeback in 2027.

El-Rufai’s choice of the SDP, rather than the PDP or a new political movement, is intriguing. The SDP remains a relatively small force compared to the APC and PDP, raising questions about whether he genuinely believes in the party’s ideology or sees it as a convenient platform to negotiate his future.

Some analysts believe El-Rufai is playing the long game—joining a smaller party now to avoid confrontations with APC heavyweights while testing the waters for potential alliances with other opposition figures ahead of 2027. Others argue that he has limited options, given his strained relationship with Tinubu’s camp and his unlikelihood of returning to the PDP, a party he once fiercely opposed.

Expectedly, the APC has brushed off El-Rufai’s departure, with the Presidency dismissing it as driven by “inordinate ambition.” Kaduna’s APC leadership has also claimed they are unbothered, arguing that his influence has waned significantly since leaving office. 

However, political observers note that El-Rufai’s defection could have ripple effects. While he may not command a nationwide political structure, his ability to shape narratives, especially in northern politics, should not be underestimated. Some opposition figures, including former Senator Shehu Sani, have downplayed his move, arguing that El-Rufai’s political relevance has diminished.

El-Rufai’s defection is not just about one man leaving a party—it reflects deeper tensions within the APC. Since taking power in 2023, Tinubu has had to balance competing interests within the ruling party, from former Buhari loyalists to his own political allies. The cracks within the party are becoming more visible, and if not managed properly, they could deepen before 2027.

For El-Rufai, the road ahead is uncertain. Aligning with the SDP may be a strategic step, but it remains to be seen whether it will translate into real political leverage. Is this the beginning of a broader coalition to challenge APC dominance, or will it end up as another failed defection story in Nigeria’s political history?

One thing is clear—El-Rufai’s move has reignited conversations about Nigeria’s shifting political landscape. Whether it leads to a major realignment or fizzles out as an individual protest remains to be seen.

Abdulhamid Abdullahi Aliyu, an NYSC serving corps member, writes from the Center for Crisis Communication (CCC) in Abuja.

By Hadiza Abdulkadir

Following a prolonged silence and social media appeals urging NNPP chieftain and former governor of Kano State, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, to address the ongoing political situation in Nigeria, Kwankwaso issued a statement to the press through his social media accounts.

Kwankwaso strongly criticized President Bola Tinubu’s recent declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State. The proclamation includes the suspension of Governor Similayi Fubara and all elected state legislators, a move Kwankwaso deems unconstitutional and dangerous for Nigeria’s democracy.

Reflecting on past political lessons, he expressed concern over the National Assembly’s rapid ratification of the president’s decision, calling it a deviation from proper legislative procedures. “This 10th Assembly has become more rubberstamp than any of its predecessors,” he stated.

Kwankwaso also condemned the involvement of military leadership in a civilian power structure, warning that such actions could lead to chaos and erode public trust in democratic institutions. He emphasized the risks of permitting military influence over civilian governance, recalling the need to keep military forces away from political power.

As the situation unfolds, the implications for democracy in Rivers State and across Nigeria remain uncertain, highlighting the necessity for political and judicial bodies to uphold the rule of law.

By Hadiza Abdulkadir

The federal government’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State has sparked widespread criticism, with legal experts and political analysts condemning the move as unconstitutional and politically motivated.

Prominent legal practitioner Abba Hikima, Esq. argues that President Bola Tinubu lacks the legal authority to suspend a democratically elected governor, deputy governor, and the members of the State House of Assembly. He insists that both Nigerian law and judicial precedents explicitly prohibit such actions.

“There’s nothing in the law or practice of proclamation of a state of emergency in Nigeria that empowers the president to suspend elected officials. Several judicial precedents outrightly prohibit this, and the president is not unaware,” Hikima said.

He further lamented a growing trend in Nigeria where those in authority deliberately violate the law to weaken their opponents. According to him, victims of such unconstitutional acts are often forced into long and uncertain legal battles, with little hope of enforcing favorable judgments.

State of Emergency Justification Questioned

Hikima also questioned the rationale behind declaring a state of emergency in Rivers, arguing that the conditions required for such a measure have not been met.

“There is no actual breakdown of law and public order in Rivers State that necessitates extraordinary federal intervention. Several states in Northern Nigeria currently face worse security challenges, yet the president has not declared a state of emergency there,” he said.

While clarifying that he is not advocating for emergency rule in any part of the country, Hikima described the Rivers case as unfair, unwarranted, and driven by political motives rather than genuine security concerns.

Violation of Democratic Principles

The lawyer also criticized the appointment of a sole administrator to oversee the state’s affairs, pointing out that the president himself admitted that no government can function without all three arms.

“By appointing a sole administrator who will act as both lawmaker and executor, the president has contradicted his own statement. This move goes against the spirit of Nigeria’s legal and political system,” Hikima added.

Under a state of emergency, the federal government assumes temporary control over certain state functions, which could include deploying security forces, restricting rights such as movement and assembly, imposing curfews, or directing state resources toward security operations. However, Hikima warns that this latest declaration sets a dangerous precedent for Nigeria’s democracy.

National Assembly Urged to Resist Approval

With the National Assembly in session, Hikima has called on lawmakers to reject what he describes as a “brazen constitutional overreach.”

“The National Assembly has the power to prevent this embarrassment. The state of emergency can only come into effect after being approved by both houses with a two-thirds majority. Lawmakers have 48 hours to stand against this unconstitutional action,” he said.

As debate rages over the legality and necessity of the state of emergency in Rivers State, all eyes are now on the National Assembly to determine the next course of action.

By Bilyamin Abdulmumin, PhD

On the 25th of February, the former president Mallam Alhaji Shehu Shagari posthumously celebrated his 100th birthday. To honor this significant occasion, his grandchild, Bello Shagari, wrote him a letter in heaven, where he now resides, inshallah.

In the letter, Shagari told his grandfather the entire story he had missed during the seven years since he left. He perhaps started with what would have concerned him the most: Muhammadu Buhari completed his eight-year tenure but never fulfilled the promise to honor him, even though a similar gesture was extended to MKO Abiola for recognizing June 12 and renaming the Abuja stadium after him, as well as completing a mausoleum for Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe.

The letter continued: Bola Ahmed Tinubu has become the President of Nigeria, but surprisingly, Nigerians are now more patient with the burden of reforms than they were before when they celebrated coups.

Another piece of information shared in the letter was the launch of General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida’s autobiography, a book surrounded by controversies on all sides. Interestingly, the book cleared Shagari of corruption.

The objective of this article was the Presidential Library the Shagari family is considering, as mentioned in the letter. The family hopes to achieve that by converting his decaying house into a historical monument.

Just before that birthday, a fatherly figure sent me a viral video of an old house belonging to Shehu Shagari, which had fallen into disrepair. The video was interestingly captioned with a suggestion: converting the house into a presidential library. The viral video may have already reached the Shagari family, who might have already contemplated it.

I think that so far, the only official presidential library we have in Nigeria is the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library (OOPL). The complex is described as a mini village, featuring an open-air amphitheater, an auditorium, a hotel, an amusement park, a wildlife park, an observation point, restaurants and bars, a Jumu’at mosque, and of course, a church.

I was surprised to learn that OOPL has a Jumu’at mosque. This highlights not only the size of the village surrounding the library but also the diverse local and international users.

Ultimately, a promising archive of this significance—a repository of presidential documents, a tourist attraction, and an academic center—stands as a proud monument not only for a specific state or region but for all of Nigeria.

As the only democratically elected president of Nigeria’s Second Republic, the call to preserve his legacy for future generations cannot be overstated. Dear Nigerians, in memory of Alhaji Shehu Shagari, let’s make this dream a reality.

By Abdullahi Mukhtar Algasgaini

The House of Representatives has approved four crucial tax reform bills during its session on Thursday in Abuja. 

The bills, which are now awaiting Senate concurrence, include the Nigerian Tax Bill, the Tax Administration Bill, the Revenue Tax Board Bill, and the Nigerian Revenue Service Establishment Bill.

James Abiodun Faleke, Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, highlighted the thorough process that led to the bills’ adoption. Over 80 key stakeholders participated in public hearings, and an eight-day retreat was held to debate the clauses. 

Faleke expressed confidence that the tax reforms would result in widely accepted laws and thanked lawmakers and House leadership for their support.

“We cannot continue using outdated tax laws that no longer meet our business, survival, and revenue needs,” Faleke emphasized, referring to the existing tax laws, some of which date back to 1959.

Deputy Committee Chairman Saidu Abdullahi praised Speaker Tajudeen Abbas for fostering consensus among stakeholders and ensuring that input from all geopolitical zones was considered. 

He added that the recommendations reflect the contributions of various groups and that the final version resulted from extensive consultation.

Ikeagwuonu Ugochinyere, an opposition member, also lauded the reform process, highlighting its transparency and the adjustments made to reflect public interests better. He assured the reforms would expand the tax base, enhance revenue collection, and protect small businesses.

Benson Babajimi, a lawmaker from Lagos, noted that all concerns from various stakeholders, including issues like inheritance tax and VAT, were carefully addressed during the legislative process.

With the House’s approval now secured, the tax reform bills await the Senate’s concurrence.

By Hadiza Abdulkadir

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved the appointment of new ambassadors to represent Nigeria in its foreign missions. This ends an 18-month diplomatic vacuum that began after all ambassadors were recalled in September 2023.

The recall, which impacted both career and non-career ambassadors, was due to funding constraints and a wider restructuring of Nigeria’s diplomatic engagements. However, sources within the presidency confirm that the financial issues have now been resolved, clearing the path for new appointments.

The selection process for the new envoys is already underway, with security agencies conducting background checks on nominees before their formal announcement and confirmation. The move is expected to restore Nigeria’s diplomatic presence globally and strengthen bilateral relations with key partners.

Nigeria currently operates over 100 embassies and high commissions worldwide, and the prolonged absence of ambassadors has raised concerns about the country’s foreign policy direction. Despite these challenges, President Tinubu’s administration has prioritized economic recovery, allocating N302.4 billion ($198.3 million) in the 2025 budget for Nigeria’s foreign missions.

During meetings with foreign leaders, President Tinubu assured that vacancies would be filled soon, recognizing the need for a strong diplomatic corps to advance Nigeria’s global interests. The new appointments are expected to refresh Nigeria’s foreign policy and enhance its influence internationally.

Observers note that the new ambassadors will foster economic partnerships, attract foreign investments, and promoteNigeria’s image abroad. With their deployment approaching, stakeholders are watching how the diplomatic team navigates the global landscape to advance Nigeria’s interests.

By Zayyad I. Muhammad

The 2027 game will not only be interesting but will also mark a significant turning point in Nigeria’s political landscape. The voting patterns and intricate scheming that shaped the 2023 elections will not be replicated in their exact form, yet their influence will still be felt. While the key political figures who played major roles in 2023 will remain central to the unfolding drama, they will adopt new strategies, shift alliances, and engage in different forms of political maneuvering.

The battle for power will be defined by strong political platforms, influential players, a formidable war chest, scientifically crafted strategies, and carefully calculated negotiations. The presidential race, in particular, will be a high-stakes contest, shaped by a mix of ambition, ideological shifts, and pragmatic political decisions.

An incumbent seeking a second term will be a bulldozer—with an enormous war chest, a solid structure, and the full weight of state power behind them. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will fight tooth and nail to secure reelection, as mostly, any first term president will do so. However, the APC stronghold – the North, is gradually slipping from the party’s grasp. In fact, 75% of President Tinubu’s second-term resources and energy will be expended in the North—making it a crucial battleground for his team. If the Tinubus have played their card very well, the North would have been firmly in the arms.

The North will be the main battleground, while the Southwest will find itself in a dilemma—torn between supporting their own and upholding their deep-rooted tradition of rewarding excellence. The Southeast will watch from the sidelines with arms akimbo but will ultimately follow their hearts, while the South-South may take a more indifferent stance, adopting a “let’s just move” attitude.

The recent resignation of Nasir El-Rufai from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and his defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is just one of many major developments that will reshape the political terrain in the coming months and 2027 approaches. El-Rufa’i’s early defection serves as a catalyst for the unfolding political drama. The Tinubu team is fortunate to have this early warning, giving them ample time to strategize. Meanwhile, the opposition will be on the offensive, while the APC will be forced into a defensive position.

For the opposition, the biggest challenge will be balancing the interests of four key groups: the Atiku camp, the Kwankwaso camp, the Peter Obi camp, and the El-Rufai/Buhari former ministers’ camp. They must navigate these competing interests carefully if they hope to strike the winning formula.

As political camps solidify and realign, new alliances will emerge, while old ones will fracture under the weight of conflicting interests. The electorate, too, will evolve—demanding more from their leaders and scrutinizing candidates beyond party affiliations.

Ultimately, the 2027 game will be a masterclass in political strategy and power dynamics—one that students of politics, analysts, and observers alike will find fascinating to study for years to come.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

By Hadiza Abdulkadir

In a significant move to honour a distinguished Nigerian statesman, President Bola Tinubu has officially renamed the Federal University of Education in Kano (formerly Federal College of Education) to Yusuf Maitama Sule Federal University of Education. This decision, announced on March 10, 2025, pays tribute to the late Alhaji Sule, who played a vital role in Nigeria’s socio-political landscape throughout his life.

Alhaji Sule, who lived from 1929 to 2017, was renowned for his extensive contributions to the nation. He served as Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York and was Chairman of the UN Special Committee Against Apartheid. 

The political journey of Alhaji Sule, also known as Dan Masanin Kano, included roles as Chief Whip of the Federal House of Representatives from 1954 to 1959, Leader of Nigeria’s Delegation to the Conference of Independent States in 1960, the First Federal Commissioner of Public Complaints in 1976, and Minister of Mines and Power.

In his statement, President Tinubu emphasized the importance of commemorating Ambassador Sule’s legacy, stating that it would inspire younger generations to embody values such as integrity, patriotism, character, and nationalism.

The Federal University of Education, Kano, which is one of seven specialized universities of education established by the Federal Government, will continue to play a crucial role in the training of teachers, further strengthening Nigeria’s education sector. 

This renaming reflects a commitment to recognizing leaders who have made impactful contributions to the nation’s development, setting a precedent for future generations.

By Anas Abbas

Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State, has officially announced his resignation from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and his decision to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

In a resignation letter submitted to his local ward in Kaduna State on Monday, El-Rufai cited irreconcilable differences with the ruling party’s leadership and expressed disappointment with the APC’s recent direction.

“I have served the APC diligently and have contributed significantly to its viability as a political platform,” he stated. “However, recent developments have revealed a concerning disregard for democratic principles and progressive values that I hold dear.

”As a founding member of the APC, El-Rufai played a pivotal role in securing electoral victories for the party in 2015, 2019, and 2023.

Reflecting on his tenure as governor, he emphasized his administration’s commitment to human development, education, healthcare, infrastructure, job creation, and investment.

He explained that his departure from the APC was motivated by growing concerns regarding governance and internal party dynamics.

“At this juncture in my political journey, I must seek a different political platform that aligns with the progressive values I cherish,” he remarked.

Upon joining the SDP, El-Rufai expressed his gratitude to mentors, colleagues, and supporters, reaffirming his dedication to advancing democratic principles.

“As a member of the SDP, I am committed to building a unified democratic front to challenge the APC in the upcoming elections,” he concluded.

By Zayyad I. Muhammad

The Nigerian political landscape is never short of intrigue, speculation, and high-stakes maneuvering. The latest storm centers around Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s National Security Adviser (NSA), and allegations made by his ‘former’ ally and friend, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State.

El-Rufai has accused Ribadu of secretly positioning himself for a presidential bid in 2031, alleging that he is working to eliminate key northern politicians before the elections. In an Arise TV interview, El-Rufai said:

“Somebody wants to destroy my reputation. Why? Nuhu Ribadu wants to be president in 2031. He has to eliminate every northerner that he thinks is on the radar.”

These allegations have sparked intense debate, given Ribadu’s current position as the NSA, one of the most powerful offices in the country. The role demands absolute loyalty to the sitting president, and any sign of personal political ambition would be politically dangerous.

However, Ribadu has vehemently denied the claims, dismissing any suggestion that he is planning a presidential run in 2031. In his response, he stated:

“For the avoidance of doubt, I want to put it on record that I have never discussed running for president in 2031 with anybody.”

Currently, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is in the second year of his first term and is widely anticipated to run for reelection in 2027. If he wins, his administration would extend until 2031. Considering this timeline, it seems premature for anyone in Tinubu’s inner circle—particularly someone in such a sensitive position as the NSA—to be planning a presidential bid so early.

To be fair to Ribadu, every seasoned political observer knows he is too intelligent and experienced to make such a politically reckless move. Launching a presidential campaign while still serving in a crucial role would create unnecessary distractions, fuel rivalries, and generate deep animosities within the government. It would also call his loyalty to Tinubu into question.

So why is Ribadu being linked to 2031?

First, his close relationship with President Tinubu has earned him the title of Tinubu’s golden boy (Dan Fulani). His reputation as a disciplined, intelligent,  experienced, and competent leader makes him a natural contender in any discussion about potential successors. Any rising political figure will inevitably attract speculation in a political climate where future ambitions are often carefully managed behind closed doors but widely discussed publicly by everyday people.

Second, the political class understands that succession planning is always at play, even when not publicly acknowledged. While Ribadu may not currently campaign for the presidency, political opportunities can arise unexpectedly. Nigerian politicians are known for their ability to seize the moment when the circumstances align, even if it was not originally in their plans.

Politics is unpredictable, and today’s denials can quickly become tomorrow’s declarations. Whether or not Nuhu Ribadu harbors presidential ambitions, the reality is that he possesses the qualities of a strong contender—experience, credibility, and proximity to power. If the opportunity presented itself, would he take it?

Only time will tell. But one thing is sure: The road to 2031 has already begun, and the political maneuvering will only intensify in the coming years.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.