Atiku Abubakar

Kwankwaso and his over-ambitious movement

By Sagir Ibrahim

Recently, we witnessed a new direction in our modern politics, whereby former Governor of Kano State, Engr. Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso and other former political heavyweights formed a new movement with an ambition to upset the status quo ante of our politics.

No doubt, Kwankwaso is a political juggernaut with a track record of achievements within his state. I don’t think it will be an exaggeration to say, none among his peers can match him in terms of positive impact on the lives of the poor. From that, he successfully built a team of educated youth that penetrated the nook and crannies of Northern Nigeria. On a visit to any tertiary institution in the North-West, it is rare to register the absence of a lecturer who happened to be a benefactor of the Kwankwaso government or under his present Kwankwasiyya Foundation.

And on the other hand, looking at his peers, for instance, Sokoto, under Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, is not yet free from the shackles of illiteracy despite being a former speaker a second-term governor. Moreover, Sokoto is ravaged by persistent banditry insecurity. So then, how can he save the nation from the current insecurity challenges if he can’t secure his state? But in terms of party acceptance and the 2019 PDP presidential primary election’s result, his political strength is more extensive than Kwankwaso’s.

Although, that will not be unconnected with his ability to forge a good relationship with his party leadership, unlike Kwankwaso, who is known to have mad love for dominating relationships and space without considering others. For instance, when he left PDP for APC in 2014, he dominated the APC in his state by anointing his preferred candidates on the party tickets leaving no room for those he met in the party. The same happened when he defected to PDP from APC. He cornered all the party structure and candidates to his faction without regard for others that were there before him. That forced people like Sen. Ibrahim Shekarau to leave the party.

Kwankwaso’s New Movement

Recently, Kwankwaso launched a new movement that aimed to bring a positive change to the country’s political atmosphere. Known political figures that attended the launching are ex-governors, ministers, political actors and some technocrats. But, there is a possibility that the movement would join an existing political party outside the two major parties to serve as a third force in the upcoming election. Assuming that it joins another party, is he the only person in the movement with a presidential ambition? How ready are his colleagues to assist him financially and politically? Are they influential enough to sway people to vote for him? These and many more questions are begging for an answer.

Currently, forming and marketing a new political party in Nigeria less than a year before the election is almost impossible unless it is a merger of existing political parties. But, unlike this new movement, the influence of its convener is the most potent force that can be marketed. And if he can be sold in his Kano quickly, could that be done in Northeast, which has VP Atiku Abubakar, Ahmed Mu’azu, and Gov. Bala Muhammad that are eyeing the same seat?

Even in the North-West, how well prepared is the movement to confront the likes of Tambuwal that outshined him during the 2019 primary election?

What about Southerners who believe this is their perfect time to clinch the seat? Therefore, Kwankwaso has a lot to face in this new direction.

If not for wishes being horses, he would’ve exercised enough patience to join either of the two bigger parties, especially the APC. Because if the likes of Prof. Yemi Osinbajo emerge as the party flag bearer, they will be left with no perfect match to serve as his running mate than him. But his desperation is for leadership is second to none.

But looking at the constitutional provision, one needs a political party to contest any political seat since there is no constitutional provision for independent candidacy. With this, we can understand the political calculation of Kwankwaso. Going by the obstacle(s) mentioned, there is no possibility of Kwankwaso being the flag bearer of any of the two major parties. At best, joining NNPP could serve as an avenue for him to test his relevance in the national political space since his new party has no candidate of his calibre. Therefore, there’s every possibility for him to clinch the party presidential ticket.

Can He Win?

This is something that only time could tell. But, indeed, if any of the political parties give their ticket to a Northerner, Kwankwaso will now turn into a major spoiler to the Northern votes and a distraction. Thus, this could pave the way for a Southern candidate to victory. And in the end, if God lend us long life to 2027, maybe then he’ll contest again and luckily emerge as a winner since most of the contestants are either in old age or have given up their ambition

Sagir Ibrahim is a graduate of Economics from the Department of Economics, Bauchi State University Gadau. He can be reached via ibrahimsagir1227@gmail.com.

Character and strategy: The nutritive requirements for Nigerian leadership

By Mubarak Shu’aibu Hardawa

Nigeria is on borrowed time at the moment and not just because of an awful leadership it is experiencing, but for having that ‘onerous’ task of finding the marquee leader that would be her saviour. This arduous mission has become inevitable after many years of failed attempts that defied belief, much less explanation.

The leadership problems in Nigeria are structural and systematic, while the crisis at hand is long-lasting and accelerating. The system has become so overwhelmed by anger and frustrations that even the most basic task of any government, which is securing the lives of its citizens, is becoming increasingly impossible.

While good leadership is essential – especially in a country the size of Nigeria- the anticipation, grit, and determination to inspire the citizens to be there, unfortunately, that looks like a distant hope. Despite the arrays of potentials and the abundance of resources, which, if properly harnessed, would transform Nigeria into an unmatchable place, this runs contrary to reality. The result obtained is a satiric giggle. The reason may not be unconnected to the fact that our leadership group lack the requisite qualities to take Nigeria to a greater level of ceaseless progress and prosperity.

To put it simply, Nigeria has the capacity and nous to be as rich as the United Arab Emirates. Still, due to its poor choice of leaders, it is now as filthy as pigsty moving on India in the pecking order of countries with the highest number of citizens living in extreme poverty. This situation is avoidable. How? By not allowing ethnicity, religion, region and party affiliation to cloud our judgment when choosing the right leader.  

Thus, by eschewing leaders of a good character, grand ideas and strategy, we are restricted only to a bunch of clowns whose leadership style cannot inspire even a cheap hope in anyone. And what is obtainable from such leaders is a failure that we are now seeing as it has metamorphosed to a greater extent that most Nigerians no longer have faith in the government. 

As it is now, it will only take the starriest eyed optimist to make a case for believing in Nigeria at the moment. The dailiness of wanton killings, kidnapping, stealing of public funds, the meteoric rise in poverty index, corruption, and so on say everything about the kind of leaders Nigeria has. With what is obtained today, Nostradamus himself will hesitate to bet that wrecked Nigeria will be great in the near future. (I’m optimistic, though! As optimism oils the wheels of everyday living.) But such a level of demoralisation and crestfallen require a strong antidote whose composition is character and strategy combined to turn things around.

Since the return of democracy in 1999 to date, those touted with the leadership of this country come with asterisks—either of corruption, poor economic management, health challenges, ethnicity, ageing, nepotism, etcetera. Although there were numerous pros with President Yar’adua’s short shelf-life, the hopes were soon taken away by the inevitable finality which laid him and his famous anthem of “7 Points Agenda” to rest. The rest doesn’t have much to write home about.

The point where Nigeria looked set to hit the proper course was in 2015 when President Buhari came with his ‘Change’ mantra, but that ultimately goes to show that he is not the finished article based on his sheer lack of strategy. This imbalance left Nigeria without a vertebra in her spine for a couple of years. Although we had the chance to change the narratives in the 2019 election, with character (Buhari) coming up against strategy (Atiku Abubakar), Nigerians failed to the wisdom in the saying “A leopard never changes its spot” thus persisted with Buhari thinking that things will change in the second term. The majority of Nigerians at that material time held the view that his character, which fetched him the public appraisal of “Mai Gaskiya”, would wave wands and make things magically better. A dogma that is fruitless at best and hazardous at worst.

Some Nigerians even went vigorously beyond delimitation and common sense, arguing that Atiku was plotting to sell Nigeria (NNPC). While some purported that President of the Senate Bukola Saraki, Speaker House of Reps Yakubu Dogara, Senator Dino Melaye and co are the saboteurs of Buhari’s government in the NASS and must therefore be cleared off the deck to allow Buhari an enabling environment. These are publicly sold opinions and thus became very hard to change even when most of the evidence suggests that they should.

This premature decision under predicated conditions of illusionary belief backfired heavily as his weakness for lack of strategy has been laid bare even in the second term, with Nigerians paying the premium price to date.

Today’s Nigeria is unrecognisable from halcyon days, and her golden generation passes. However, some ethos is sacrosanct, such as having the leadership group to look up to, such as Tafawa Balewa, Dr Nmandi Azikiwe and Ahmadu Bello (the Sardauna of Sokoto). Even without the crude oil, they left Nigerians every reason to be optimists. That was a sheer display of character and strategy.

While you would hope to see a similar Nigeria sooner rather than later, the choice to be made should be factored into character and strategy. Nigeria is in a store for hectic decisions to make. However, the cold, hard reality is that Nigeria, like never before, needs a leader whose character will help unify the country through healing, dialogues and not by polarising the recent past. 

A strategic leader will find a way to midwife the return of peace to Nigeria, grow and maintain our economy, asphyxiate corruption, fix our education to be able to stand on our own, and cut down the unnecessary government expenditure all the recklessness we are known for. Meanwhile, a character will help that leader follow the right path in seeing through the above tasks.  All these sound plausible, right? Theoretically, it does. However, in reality, given the constraints of apparent options, debates were ignited on whether we could find such a man in our political arena (that’s a pulsating debate!). 

Nigerians must challenge and X-ray anyone who throws his hat in the ring to avoid falling foul of past mistakes. 

Finally, I insist on a person who embodies these invaluable assets (character & strategy). We hope our leaders and Nigeria itself are going to be alright! And reeling out the rationale for pitching tent behind such a person, Prof Zulum of Borno will suffice.

Mubarak Shu’aibu Hardawa wrote from Bauchi State via naisabur83@gmail.com.

Road to Aso Villa 2023

By Ahmad Murtala

Ever since Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared his ambition to succeed President Buhari earlier this month, the political sphere off and online stirred up debates in favour of Tinubu and the potholes along his way. People cite some irrelevant motifs that may hinder Tinubu’s success. However, these are not paramount of any buyable candidate at the moment, and of course, for the electorate.

The intrinsic status quo of our polity entertains those factors that undermine the democracy and the governance—rating region, tribe, religion, age, school attended, above competency and capacity going even further to dig up the ancestral root of a candidate. The result we are cultivating under this administration says a lot about the mistakes we’ve committed in the past – from  2015 to date—by using only those yardsticks to scrutinize a candidate. Can we still pelt with our intelligence to subscribe to the same mistake of the past come 2023, which appears new dawn to our country?

We imported the American presidential system of government, which is quite expensive and implemented its only cover page. It’s a multi-party system that compels too much spending which a saleable candidate capable of taking the lead is hindered from contesting by the processions. These include the ticket, the campaign, and the mobilization. In this context, two major parties are on the run, which the rest endorses the party that has the chance of winning in subterranean manoeuvre.

The Southeast has configured and domesticated PDP as its political party since 1999, while APC appears nascent in the region—the weakness of the ruling party and the deterioration of the security across the country under the watch of APC makes the nascent party lose its credibility far to the NE. If the president is to emerge from the region, two possibilities may arise.

First, northern people stereotype and characterize PDP as evil, callous and looters, which most of the states in the region are under. Second, APC has lost its shining plate before the people based on what appears on the ground since coming to power in 2015. Therefore, no matter the candidate’s credit from the SE, if APC deems it fit to give the flag bearer to the region to entertain zoning as postulated by some northern state governors, the chances are its success would be a bottleneck.

The polarization within the spheres of politics that SouthEast translates to secession if not given a chance to rule, it appears that PDP would have to play the same card of the last election, by choosing the running mate from the SouthEast, here the North would draw a line looking at the indices of the carnage their businesses faced in the region. Meanwhile, APC would play the South-West and the running mate from the North, perhaps a Muslim-Muslim ticket. The result would be determined by the primaries from the parties in a couple of weeks ahead.  

In those countries that have built the social establishments and have smooth working systems with literally little or no corruption, the age of presidential aspirants is not a matter of concern. We see Biden of US—unlike Nigeria when chunks of domestic battle are entangled yet to be addressed. The age of the candidate matters a lot in this context. Tinubu, who appears to be more robust so far from those who declared their aspiration, is brazenly feeble. If not a good diet and wealth make politicians appear strong, most of the politicians at the frontline ought to assume coach duties guiding the upcoming ones. We forbid the like we’ve seen in this administration by encasing the president in the Villa and plunging the country into anarchy.

From the view and the colour of the game, Atiku Abubakar, the former vice president, would swiftly take the PDP flag and Tinubu APC. Both have been dented by the people’s court to have maliciously accumulated wealth—having no other alternative polling box for the electorate. If history is to repeat itself, Buhari contested four times before he won. Now, Atiku is running on his fifth time is likely to have a smooth ride based on APC losing its credibility because of insecurity across the country. 

The extreme thirst for power to fulfil the ‘need hierarchy’ is not dangerous to the beholder alone. The motive is only to possess the authority without a sketched-architectural blueprint and clear manifestos which will coalesce with the national need. Buhari came on this platter, and the result is unbecoming.

So far, the two giants have not made it to the public the what-and-how to attend to the tangled problems agonizing every sector. The currently delicate security and imbalanced economy are at the top, strangling the country by the neck—finding it arduous to breathe. We, for now, don’t need the so-called ‘kingmakers’ who cannot heed or take advice from the public opinion but become foreign puppets—since, intrinsically, the presumption of superiority as the number-one citizen is established. 

Road to Villa 2023 must come from the parties and play the game card to sew the polarization across the region. The Villa in 2023 and beyond begs for a head that has both stick and carrot in his hands, the one who has a clear understanding of foreign policies and has immediate treatment to our problems, both short and long-term solutions. If to suggest best candidates, there are a multitude of them from SS, SW and NW, both fit in into position of President and Vice President, but for now, let’s see the outcome of the parties convention, which is the utmost decider.

Ahmad Murtala sent this article via ahmadmurtala@outlook.com.

As Tinubu commences the difficult and easy journey

By Zayyad I. Muhammad

The battle for the 2023 elections will be fascinating. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has commenced a challenging but exciting quest to be President of Nigeria in 2023. Tinubu would face five significant obstacles.

Firstly, his faith. Secondly, the choice of a running mate. Thirdly, the rugged politics the PDP would play – the PDP may present a northern presidential candidate and just ‘Siddon-look’, putting the APC on the defensive. And fourthly, how the North would vote relative to Omatekun and anti-Fulani sentiments in the southwest. And fifthly, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo supporters are on the move, solely focused on the presidency with confidence.

Tinubu, a Muslim from the Southwest, might have a free sail at home because of the complex nature of the socio-political settings of the southwest. But to appeal to other zones in the country, he will be in a quandary regarding his choice of a running mate. If he picks a Christian from the North, the bulk of APC support in the North, particularly the Muslim North, will look the other way. If he chooses a Muslim from the North, the country will undoubtedly be against a presidential Muslim-Muslim ticket. However, if the PDP picks its presidential candidate from the North, he may get some ‘relief’ in the South

Operation Amotekun and Sunday Igboho’s January 2021 one-week ultimatum to Fulani herders to vacate the southwest, Tinubu’s old statement – ‘ I don’t believe in one Nigeria’ will be another weapon that will be used against him in the North.

Tinubu’s war chest is enormous. His political tactics are shrewd; his political structure is solid, widespread, and well-organized They recently ‘bombarded’ the North and scared their opponents. Tinubu is a good candidate but has a big dilemma, as mentioned above.

On the other hand, the 2023 presidential election battle will be exciting – PDP will be on the offensive, while the ruling APC will be on the defensive. The flag bearers of either political party will also have many political hurdles to cross.

Most people expect the 2023 presidential election finale to be an Atiku vs a Tinubu game. Atiku vs Tinubu will be an interesting big game, a very BIG one. Two similar people with similar public perceptions and similar game styles; “I-know-you, you-know-me” scenario will come to play. The two have well-established political structures that can easily scare an opponent. They pay their bills; the contest would be 100 per cent politics, politics, politics- even the choice of the running mates. It will be a fascinating zero-sum game. Both have similar advantages and disadvantages.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.

Political crisis rocks Gombe as thugs storm Atiku’s campaign office, set PDP secretariat ablaze

By Uzair Adam Imam 

Suspected political thugs have stormed the campaign office of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, situated some few kilometres away from the Gombe metropolis.

The Daily Reality gathered that the office had its windows broken by the thugs while taking away valuable items like air conditioners.

The thugs were also reported to have set the Gombe State Secretariat of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ablaze. 

Confirming the incident, an eyewitness said that men in the area extinguished the fire with the help of Fire Service personnel.

Addressing reporters, PDP Chairman General Audu Kwaskebe (Rtd) blamed Youth Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, Kawu Lero, saying he was the one who led youths to burn the secretariat.

He added that they had already written a petition to the state police command for the appropriate action.

Meanwhile, State PRO of the APC, Mr Moses Kyari, alleged that it was PDP members that set their office ablaze “due internal crisis over control of the party structure.”

Efforts made to speak to the Police Public Relations Officer (PPRO) in Gombe, SP Obed Mary Malum, were fruitless.

Between 2014 and 2022 and the race for Nigeria’spresidency

By Ahmad Mubarak Tanimu

It’s 2022. The twilight of Buhari’s administration is here, and the political permutations that will produce his successor are about to come bare. “Change” was the mantra in 2014. The Giwa barrack attack in March by Boko Haram, the Kibaku school girls abduction in April, the capture of Gwoza in August, the occupation of Bama in September and the ransacking of Baga in December by the terrorist group together with the over ten thousand lives lost during the year made 2014 an unforgettable year.

Goodluck Jonathan carried so many political accruals that outweighed his political assets, giving him an unfavourable political balance sheet that led to his well-anticipated defeat at the polls in 2015, becoming the first-ever one-term president in Nigeria. It’s an unusual political crash that the former presidential spokesman, Segun Adeniyi, calls ‘Against The Run of Play’.

Jonathan’s political misfortune didn’t start in 2014. He promised Nigerians a breath of fresh air after winning the 2011 elections. His major decision after the victory was fuel subsidy removal. He sent the then CBN Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi and the then Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, to beg and convince Nigerians to accept subsidy removal.

The first nail on the political coffin of Jonathan was hit on January 1, 2012, with the announcement of fuel subsidy removal, which birthed a national outrage and mass protest known today in our history books as Occupy Nigeria. After that, Boko haram insurgency, the slump of oil prices in the global market, and the PDP crisis he poorly managed sent him to an early political abyss.

Whilst all these were happening, one man positioned himself suitably and leveraged on every misstep of the President, often described as clueless. The man is Muhammadu Buhari. When the commoner was not happy, as late political siege J.S Tarka would say, Buhari offered himself as the hope, the happiness and the long-awaited missing piece of the jigsaw. Buhari moulded all Nigeria’s problems into just one thing that he kept saying repeatedly; ‘corruption, corruption, corruption’. He then placed himself as the one and only man with an incorruptible toga in the political arena that could solve Nigerian security challenges and economic turmoil.

He became president in 2015, Nigeria’s economic crisis soared, and like the sunshine, insecurity moved from east to west in the North. But unlike 2014, in 2022, no one is leveraging Buhari’s ineptitude. Though to be fair to Buhari, with Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil for export revenue and foreign consumer goods, an economic crisis will always be inevitable in the situation of a fall in the global prices of oil.

The polity in Nigeria still looks primordial. No one is ready for issue-based conversation. Even the pundits often put in more sentiment than logic in their analysis. The reaction of Buhari’s detractors shortly after Tinubu’s declaration to run for the presidency in 2023 says it all. They want him to surrender a platform he built with his sweat over some decades of enduring and surviving political persecution under Abacha, Obasanjo and Jonathan.

One doesn’t need to be a seer or bookmaker to predict that Nigerians will face Tinubu and Atiku’s choices in 2023. This could be a run that will not dig and damage the image of Buhari. Atiku may keep things ethical as he did in 2019, whilst Tinubu will primarily defend the Buhari administration throughout the campaign and make promises of improvements.

In 2014, there was an exodus from the ruling party to the opposition. Governors Kwankwaso of Kano, Wammako of Sokoto, Amaechi of Rivers, Ahmed of Kwara and Nyako of Adamawa all defected to the APC and other party chieftains like Atiku, Saraki and Baraje. The defection made the ruling party’s defeat imminent even before the elections.

On the contrary, the ruling party is taking governors to its fold this time. Governors Umuahi of Ebonyi, Matawalle of Zamfara and Ayade of Crossriver defected to the ruling APC last year. While the long-awaited APC national convention can make or mar the party’s fortune in the next general elections, the current atmosphere spells gloom for the opposition again come 2023.

Going by the non-negotiability of Nigeria’s unity as enshrined in the constitution and the unwritten political arrangement of political parties in Nigeria, the next president should be ethnically and culturally Igbo. Still, the ethnic group can only claim that stake in the PDP, a party they supported wholeheartedly since 1999. They rejected the APC, and I don’t think the party will pamper the same region with a presidential ticket in 2023. I am harbouring a feeling that an Igbo presidency is all Nigeria needs to turn its fortune around as a country. It will bring integration and a sense of belonging for all, which may translate into socioeconomic success. But that’s a conversation for another day.

Ahmad Mubarak Tanimu wrote via ahmadmubarak.tanimu243@gmail.com.

A letter to Prof. Farooq Kperogi

By Muhammad Rabiu Jibrin (Mr.J)

I write this letter to you as a Nigerian and your follower for a long time. I am deeply concerned about having a better Nigeria, which is only possible if responsible leaders are elected. Leaders who have the country at heart think of her first before themselves or their families.

But the process or the means of discovering remains the problem to many Nigerians due to so many factors. We need to face that and address it as soon as possible. In so doing, Nigerians need to be guided by farsighted men like you. 

Prof. Kperogi, if Buhari, Osinbajo and Tinubu are “a troika of a treacherous villain” or “tarred with the same brush or the monsters of deceit and fraud” and Atiku happens to be among the “warhorses of corruption and ineptitude” as you pointed out in your recent piece, then who do you think should Nigerians go for come 2023?

It is indisputable that those you called names failed Nigerians on many fronts and seem not equal to the task based on the historical antecedents. But just pinpointing their lacunas that justified them as incapacitated and incompetent alone can’t suffice.

As a patriotic citizen, a critical thinker of reasonable foresight, with a wealth of experience and vast knowledge, you can endorse someone for Nigerians to vote for. Please, who do you think can lead Nigeria to the promised land?

With your pen, which is mightier than the sword they say, you can attempt changing the narration and have the Nigeria of our dream. Out of the 78,250 followers and 4999 friends you have on Facebook alone, plus those on your other social media handles, only God knows how many you can influence. As you shape their minds, they can also do the same to others, and the trend will go continuously. 

Nigerians want to stop being “clueless” and take off their heads the laurels of “enablers of Nigeria’s descent to the nadir of hopelessness”. So let’s do this together and make 2023 different.

Muhammad Rabiu Jibrin (Mr J) wrote from Gombe State via muhammadrabiujibrin@gmail.com.

PDP can still zone presidency to the North

By Abdulhaleem Ishaq Ringim

 

Zoning, especially of the presidency, is not a product of a national consensus but that of certain political parties’ internal dynamics. It is pertinent that we understand that. Nigerians did not sit in a national conference and agree to zone or rotate power. So it is not binding on the broader national politics.

The idea of zoning started with the PDP in 1998, it was entrenched in PDP’s constitution in Article 7, Section 7.2(C), and it prescribes that “In pursuant of the principles of equity, justice and fairness, the party shall adhere to the policy of rotation and zoning of party and public elective offices and it shall be enforced by the appropriate executive committees at all levels”.

Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, a southerner, became president in 1999 and prevailed as president for two terms representing eight uninterrupted years. In 2007, Umaru Musa Yaradua was nominated to fulfil this zoning principle and rotation of power to the North. Hence, he was supposed to also prevail as president for eight uninterrupted years as the president of Nigeria.

Unfortunately, he was only able to serve for about three years due to his ill health and subsequent death. As a result, president Goodluck Jonathan, who was the Vice President, assumed office as Acting President through the invocation of the “Doctrine of Necessity” principle and completed the term, which was supposed to be between May 2007 to May 2011.

However, according to the zoning agreement, it was still the turn of the North as a Northern President was supposed to go for eight uninterrupted years. But Goodluck Jonathan was not going to have it; he insisted on contesting the presidency, thereby jettisoning the PDP’s zoning principle.

A serious crisis erupted within the party, and a section of the party’s membership was hell-bent on adhering to the zoning agreement and even went ahead to endorse Atiku Abubakar as the Northern Consensus candidate to complete the North’s uninterrupted eight years.

The stalemate prevailed until a case was made that Jonathan would only be completing the Yaradua Ticket, which he was initially part of. And it was agreed that Jonathan would only be going for a single term. The decision still contravened the zoning arrangement, but Jonathan had his way; he contested and won the 2011 elections.

Jonathan, however, went back on his promise and still contested for the 2015 elections even while it was supposed to be contested by a Northern candidate as per the 2011 agreement and the broader zoning principle. And he lost.

Hence, it is only fair that the presidency is rotated back to the North “In pursuant of the principles of equity, justice and fairness”.

So no matter where the party chairmanship is zoned, the party’s zoning principle will still favour the North for the Presidency. And come to think of it, the circumstance is not novel, for this is not the first time a Northern Presidential candidate would emerge during the chairmanship of a Northern Party Chairman in the PDP. Col Ahmadu Ali was PDP’s Chairman from 2005 to 2008, and Yaradua was nominated to fly PDP’s flag and was voted to office in 2007 while Col Ali was still chairman.

Coming back to the National outlook, the (unofficial) zoning agreement in the APC favours the South for the 2023 elections, while that of the PDP favours the North. And this is where the calculation is!

Peradventure the parties adhere to these zoning agreements, and we get a PDP Northern Candidate (for example, Atiku Abubakar with a running mate like Peter Obi, Nyesom Wike or Okonjo Iweala) and an APC Southern Candidate (for example, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu with a running mate like Babagana Zulum, Maimala Buni or Boss Mustapha), who would the calculation favour?

Answer this, and you would understand why PDP would want to lure APC into fielding a Southern candidate!

Abdulhaleem Ishaq Ringim is a political and public affairs analyst. He writes from Zaria and can be reached through haleemabdul1999@gmail.com.

Atiku, Kwankwaso, Tambuwal, others shut out as PDP zones national chairmanship to North

By Ibrahim Siraj

There are indications that Nigeria’s main opposition party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), would zone its presidential ticket to the Southern part of the country. This follows the decision of the party to zone the national chairmanship seat to the North ahead of its national convention coming up later this month. 

Although the party is yet to formally decide on the zone that will produce its flagbearer in the 2023 presidential election, the latest decision provides some clue because, based on convention, the party has never zoned the two coveted offices to the same region.

Announcing the decision Thursday, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, who is also the Chairman of the party’s zoning committee, said the decision was arrived at at the end of his committee’s meeting.

He said his committee was not mandated to zone the presidential ticket. According to him, “The mandate of the committee does not include zoning of the president, vice president and other executive and legislative offices of the Federal Republic of Nigeria”.  

The decision of the party to zone the offices, the Governor adds, “is in line with the constitution of the party on zoning and rotation of party and national offices in the interest of justice, equity and fairness”.

By implication, the decision by PDP to push the national chairmanship seat to the North is likely to dash the hope of politicians eyeing the party’s presidential ticket from the North. Going by tradition, it is almost impossible for the party’s national chairman and presidential candidate to come from one zone.

Prominent among those affected by the party’s decision are former vice president Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President Bukola Saraki, Governor of Sokoto State Aminu Tambuwal and former Kano State Governor Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso. These four politicians are among many others of Northern extraction who dominated the party’s presidential convention in 2019, with Atiku Abubakar eventually emerging as the winner. However, Mr Atiku was defeated by President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling APC to win reelection.

Atiku unperturbed – Campaign Group

Speaking to The Daily Reality on the development, Alhaji Abdullahi Abdulkarim Gama, leader of Atiku Arewa Reporters, a campaign group rooting for the candidature of the former vice president, said his principal remains unperturbed. He said as far as they are concerned, the decision of the zoning committee is not final and only reflects the position of PDP governors. Moreso, he said, the Governor Ahmad Fintiri-led Convention committee is yet to conclude its assignment and submit its report regarding the party’s convention. He maintained that scheming for the party’s presidential ticket would continue until the last minute.

 

Situation sceptical yet no cause for alarm – Kwankwasiyya leader

On his part, Dr Aliyu Isa Aliyu, a leading Kwankwasiyya member in Kano, warned that the situation remains sceptical even though no cause for alarm as far as Kwankwaso’s presidential ambition is concerned given that the party has not formally taken a final position on the matter. He cited a situation in 2007 wherein late President YarAdua emerged as PDP’s presidential candidate and went ahead to win the presidency even though the national chairman at the time, Col Ahmadu Ali (Rtd), was also a Northerner. Col. Ali was replaced in 2008 by Chief Vincent Ogbulafor following the zoning of the position to the South. 

Agitation for power rotation not in the interest of Nigerian masses – Don

PDP’s decisions came when the North and the South are deeply entangled in a heated agitation for power rotation. The Southern governors have, on several occasions, made it utterly clear that power must shift to their region, and the North must shelve any thought of retaining the presidency beyond 2023. This position was, however, countered by Northern governors who consider it as “foolish”, “unconstitutional”, and “undemocratic” any attempt to dictate to the North who to vote for as president.

At the end of the governors’ meeting earlier this week which other leaders from the region also attended, the governors advised their Southern counterparts to explore dialogue and compromise as against confrontation and undemocratic tendencies if they are really interested in securing the support of the North for power to shift to the South. 

As the political tug of war between the North and the South continues over the zone that produces the next president, a university don has warned that the rotational presidency is undemocratic and thus has no place in Nigeria’s Constitution.  Answering enquiry from TDR, Dr Riyauddeen Zubairu Maitama of the Department of Political Science, Bayero Univerisity, Kano, explains that although so much importance has been attached to the issue of power rotation, what should be more significant for the citizens is justice and development. Of utmost importance to Nigerians, he said, is choosing a leader who will tackle corruption, poverty and widespread insecurity irrespective of the political party or the region such a leader comes from.

Dr Riyauddeen further lamented how politicians from both divides are becoming more preoccupied with zoning and power rotation at the expense of the welfare of the Nigerian masses who voted for them.  He described the agitation for secession championed by the likes of Sunday Igboho as Southern Nigeria’s gimmick to harass the North and to exact political concession ahead of the presidential election. 

Crucial months ahead

With less than a year and a half to Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election, the next few months will be crucial as zoning, and other issues are expected to dominate the discourse on the political scene. While the major political parties continue to gear up for their separate national conventions to choose national officers, Nigerians will continue to observe with keen interest how political events will unfold in search of President Buhari’s successor in 2023. The pertinent question for now is: can zoning succeed in ultimately sealing the fate of those presidential hopefuls from the North, or would they be able to come up with something dramatic to turn things around? Only time will tell!

Emerging intrigues in Adamawa politics

By Mohammed Zayyad

The Ward and Local Government Congresses of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the replacements at the wards, and the preparation for the LGA congresses by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have brought to the fore the emerging intrigues in Adamawa politic: The attempt to outweigh each other in the control of the two party’s structures among the party stakeholders is apparent.

 

The APC congresses, in most cases, were conducted based on Abuja’s directives of consensus and that the incumbents offer the Right of First Refusal, including accommodating newcomers. While for the PDP – if you have held the office for up to 8 years, death or resignation, your office is automatically vacant.

 

An interesting scenario in the APC is in Mubi North and Mubi South LGAs – the place has a former immediate governor – Bindow Umaru Jibrilla, and a sitting Senator, Ishaku Cliff Abbo. Abubakar Jafaru Member Representing Mubi North, Mubi South and Maiha Federal Constituency appeared to have been schemed out. For instance, while the Bindow and Cliff group were at Yazaram Cinema waiting for the election to be conducted, the actual election took place at Yelwa Primary School, with Jafar having the upper hand. What also weakened Bindow active participation was the issue of the leaked audio against President Muhammadu Buhari.

 

Another place of interest is Yola North, Yola South, Girei and Song LGAs- Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed Binani, Adamawa Central, wanted to replace most of the Exco at those LGAs, but all her candidates lost woefully. Many people were surprised by Binani’s politics. The Excos Binani wanted to replace were those that assisted her in getting the senatorial ticket by narrowly defeating Aliyu Wakili Boya, Sarki Matasa.
In the APC congresses, three governorship hopefuls- Muhammadu Umaru Jibrill Bindow, Senator Cliff Ishaku Abbo and Senator Aishatu Dahiru Binani were casualties, while three other governorship hopefuls Modi Halilu, Nuhu Ribadu and Abdul Razak Namadaz appeared to have made their intelligent moves silently. Namdas doesn’t have any issues at his constituency.

On the other hand, Boss Mustapha was not that enthusiastic – he only showed interest in one or two places in Yola North and Hong LGA. Former Governor Murtala Nyako played the role of a stabilizer and elder. The person that called the shots the most was Comrade Mustapha Salihu, APC NorthEast Vice Chairman. He doggedly implemented the APC Caretaker Committee’s instruction of consensus, giving the incumbent the right of first refusal and accommodating newcomers. The big game will be at the state congress. In particular, the State Chairmanship position- the big picture will be more precise- the grievances, crises, and contentment from each stakeholder and the group will be more open.

The PDP, being the party in power in the state and having some considerable interest within it, its replacements at the ward level and preparations for other congresses were unique. Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri made some political attempts- Most of the loyalists of Chief Joe Madaki and former Governor Boni Haruna were blocked.

An interesting place is the Numan Federation, where the Deputy Governor comes from. Crowther Seth was made ineffectual at his base; the person pulling the string is the Member Representing Numan, Demsa and Lamurde constituency, Kwamoti Laori; he is Fintiri’s right-hand man. It is still a surprise to many that Crowther Seth was made ineffective at Numan Federation. However, some pundits said it shouldn’t be surprised- Seth, as Deputy Governor, still operate from his house, of which the road to the house is not even tarred. Therefore, many people see Numan Federation as the big losers in the Fintiri government, despite being the joker for the PDP in the 2019 governorship election.

To be fair to Governor Fintiri, a sitting governor often dictates the direction of his party, and, Fintiri’s politics now goes beyond Adamawa; it has national elements in it- so he must have ‘the home’ in his control. Fintiri has some big PDP national assignments. This is also knit with his political ambition and the Wike connection. It was reported that Governor Wike flew to Yola twice or thrice in a specific week to confer with Fintiri and left within some hours. – Any political tête-à-tête that cannot be done via a cell phone is a big one.

There is a report that Fintiri will definitely try as much as he can to replace A.T. Shehu as the state chairman of the PDP. That’s why some politicians are of the view that Fintiri refuses to empower Shehu economically.

 

Fintiri means business, you can’t blame him. Recently, when the move to fill in the vacant position at the PDP Board of Trustee which was created by the death of former Governor Wilberforce Juta, Fintiri presented the name of Hamza Madagali Adamawa PDP Organizing Secretary, but former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and PDP former National Chairman Uche Secondus intervened, and presented the name of Boni Haruna, being a former Governor as Wilberforce Juta.

 

As the intrigues in both the Adamawa PDP and the APC further unfold, we will analyze it from the angle of the moment.

 

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja, 08036070980, zaymohd@yahoo.com.