ADC

By Anas Abbas

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has approached the Court of Appeal in Abuja, seeking an order to suspend the implementation of a Federal High Court judgment that directed the deregistration of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and four other political parties.

At a hearing before a three-member panel of the appellate court on Tuesday, INEC expressed support for applications filed by the affected parties challenging the lower court’s decision.

The electoral body argued that it was unaware the judgment would be delivered, insisting that an earlier order of the Court of Appeal had halted the planned delivery of the ruling.

Counsel representing INEC told the court that the commission only became aware of the judgment through media reports, maintaining that no formal notice was issued regarding its delivery.

The commission therefore backed requests for a stay of execution pending the determination of the appeal.

Lawyers representing the ADC also faulted the ruling, describing it as a threat to judicial order and urging the appellate court to intervene. The party’s legal team argued that the lower court proceeded despite being aware of an order suspending the judgment, and called on the Court of Appeal to take urgent steps to preserve the integrity of the judicial process.

Other affected parties warned that enforcing the judgment could create uncertainty ahead of upcoming by-elections scheduled in several states. They urged the appellate court to prevent possible disruptions by suspending the implementation of the ruling while the appeal is being considered.

The Court of Appeal was still receiving submissions from parties involved in the matter at the time of filing this report. The case follows a Federal High Court judgment ordering INEC to deregister the ADC and four other political parties over alleged failure to meet constitutional electoral performance requirements.

By Uzair Adam

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has strongly rejected a Federal High Court judgment ordering its deregistration, describing the ruling as a dangerous development capable of undermining Nigeria’s democracy and political stability.

In a statement issued on Monday by the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC alleged that the judgment reflects what it called the growing desperation of the ruling party to retain power at all costs, even if it means compromising democratic principles.

The party maintained that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is the only constitutional body empowered to register or deregister political parties and vowed to challenge the judgment through all available legal channels.

“The African Democratic Congress wishes to warn, in the strongest terms, against any attempt to use the judiciary as a tool to weaken democracy and drag the country into a political crisis,” the statement said.

The party expressed concern over the judgment reportedly delivered by Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja in a suit filed by the National Forum of Former Legislators seeking the deregistration of the ADC and four other political parties.

According to the ADC, the plaintiffs argued that the affected parties had failed to meet constitutional requirements for continued registration.

However, the party noted that INEC, in a counter-affidavit filed in May, clearly stated that the ADC had not violated any registration conditions and that no constitutional basis existed for its deregistration.

The statement further noted that INEC reaffirmed that political parties can only be deregistered on constitutionally recognised grounds and not based on political pressure or the interests of certain individuals.

The ADC also faulted the trial judge for proceeding with the matter despite a Court of Appeal order issued on May 22, 2026, directing a stay of proceedings.

“Apart from INEC’s clear position in support of the party, the ADC finds it troubling that the trial judge disregarded a subsisting order of the Court of Appeal. Such action raises serious questions about adherence to established judicial procedures and traditions,” the party stated.

The opposition party described the development as more than a legal disagreement, insisting that it represents a dangerous escalation that could affect Nigeria’s democratic process.

The ADC further alleged that individuals linked to the ruling party played key roles in advancing the case. It also questioned the involvement of the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, who reportedly joined the matter as a plaintiff in April.

According to the party, the timing of the judgment is particularly suspicious, coming after it had completed its primaries and prepared candidates for all elective positions ahead of the next general election, including the presidential contest.

Despite the ruling, the ADC called on its members to remain calm and law-abiding while awaiting further directives from the party leadership. It reiterated its commitment to pursuing all lawful options to overturn the judgment.

By Uzair Adam

The Federal High Court in Abuja has ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deregister the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and four other political parties over their alleged failure to meet constitutional electoral requirements.

The affected parties are the Action Peoples Party (APP), Action Alliance (AA), Accord Party (AP), and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

Justice Peter Lifu issued the order while delivering judgment in a suit filed by the National Forum of Former Legislators.

In the case marked FHC/ABJ/CS/2637/2026, the plaintiffs asked the court to determine whether INEC is constitutionally obligated to deregister political parties that fail to satisfy the electoral performance benchmarks stipulated in Section 225A of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), alongside provisions of the Electoral Act 2022 and relevant INEC regulations.

The forum argued that the five parties had consistently failed to meet the constitutional thresholds required to retain their registration.

According to the plaintiffs, political parties are expected to secure at least 25 per cent of votes in a state during a presidential election or win at least one elective position at the national, state, or local government level.

They maintained that the parties performed poorly in the 2023 general elections and subsequent by-elections, failing to win seats across key levels of government.

The plaintiffs further contended that the continued recognition of the parties by INEC undermines the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral system.

They urged the court to compel the electoral commission to deregister the parties before preparations for the 2027 general elections progress further.

In addition, they sought orders restraining the affected parties from participating in elections or engaging in political activities, including campaigns, rallies, and primary elections.

They also requested an injunction preventing INEC from recognising or dealing with the parties in any official capacity unless they comply with constitutional provisions.

The ruling could have significant political implications ahead of the 2027 elections, particularly for aspirants seeking to contest on the platforms of the affected parties, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

By Abdullahi Mukhtar Algasgaini

Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court, Abuja, will on June 16, 2026, decide whether to withdraw from the ongoing leadership tussle within the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

The judge fixed the date on Monday after listening to arguments from lawyers representing parties in the suit, following recusal applications filed by the faction loyal to former Senate President David Mark.

The leadership crisis began when a former Deputy Chairman of the ADC, Nafiu Bala Gombe, approached the court challenging Mark’s position as the national chairman of the party. The suit, marked FHC/ABJ/CS/1819/2025, has already travelled to the Supreme Court and was returned to the Federal High Court on April 30, 2026, for accelerated hearing.

However, the Mark-led ADC is opposing the hearing of the suit by Justice Lifu, who was newly assigned to handle the matter expeditiously. The respondents in the suit include the ADC, Senator David Mark, Rauf Aregbesola, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and Chief Ralph Nwosu as 1st to 5th respondents respectively.

Recall that Justice Emeka Nwite had on May 8, 2026, adjourned the matter indefinitely after Gombe wrote to the Chief Judge of the Federal High Court, Justice John Tsoho, requesting a transfer of the case to another judge. Days later, the case was reassigned to Justice Lifu, who assumed jurisdiction on June 3, 2026, and ordered accelerated trial.

When the matter came up on Monday, after a heated exchange during the identification of processes, Justice Lifu directed counsel to adopt their motions seeking his withdrawal over allegations of bias.

Apart from the second respondent and INEC, all other parties—including an applicant seeking joinder, the National Welfare Secretary of ADC, Nkemakolam Ukandu—asked Justice Lifu to recuse himself, transfer the matter, or stay proceedings.

Ukandu’s lawyer, Kalu Kalu Agu, cited a petition against the Chief Judge and Justice Lifu pending before the National Judicial Council (NJC), as well as another court case against the NJC, Tsoho, and Lifu filed last Thursday.

However, Gombe’s lawyer, Mr Robert Emukpero, SAN, urged the court to dismiss the motions, arguing there was no evidence of bias against the respondents.

After listening to all parties, Justice Lifu announced that ruling would be delivered on June 16, 2026.

By Abubakar I. Hamisu

There is a peculiar cruelty in self-inflicted wounds. The African Democratic Congress entered the 2026 political season as perhaps the most consequential opposition force Nigeria has seen in years. Buoyed by the defection of high-profile figures, widespread disillusionment with the ruling establishment, and a genuine public appetite for an alternative, the party had accumulated a reservoir of goodwill that most Nigerian political parties can only dream of. Then came the primaries.

What unfolded in Kaduna State on 25th May 2026 — and in the disputed conduct surrounding it — offers a sobering case study in how a political party can, in a single act of institutional recklessness, begin to squander the very things that made it credible. The ADC must reckon with this honestly, because the consequences of continued evasion are not merely uncomfortable — they are potentially catastrophic.

I.  The Weight of Expectations

To appreciate the gravity of what is at stake, one must first understand what the ADC represented to millions of Nigerians before these primaries. Here was a party that loudly and repeatedly distinguished itself from the culture of impunity that has long characterised Nigerian party politics. Its guidelines for the conduct of primaries — detailed, comprehensive, and impressively structured — reflected an institutional seriousness rarely seen. Its rhetoric promised transparency where there had been opacity, fairness where there had been manipulation, and internal democracy where there had been imposition. Nigerians, understandably exhausted by the status quo, believed it.

That belief is now under acute stress. And the stress was entirely preventable.

II.  What Went Wrong in Kaduna

The documented record is damning. A formal petition filed by Prof. Muhammad Sani Bello, a cleared governorship aspirant, alleges the deployment of armed thugs at voting centres, systematic compromise of accreditation procedures, multiple voting by the same individuals, deliberate delays that disenfranchised legitimate party members, and partisan conduct by electoral officials. These are not vague grievances — they are specific, numbered allegations supported by agents’ reports, documentary evidence, and video recordings.

More significantly, none of this was unforeseeable. Malam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, the Kaduna State ADC leader, wrote an urgent letter to the party’s national leadership five days before the election, specifically warning that the composition of the Electoral Committee was compromised, that it included individuals aligned with particular interests, and that proceeding on that basis would produce rejection, division, and avoidable conflict. He recommended a restructured committee with equal representation of all aspirants and a neutral chairman. The party leadership ignored him.

This is not a mere procedural lapse. It is an institutional failure of the highest order — the failure to heed a timely, well-reasoned, written warning from a senior leader. When the predicted crisis materialised, the party had no defence of ignorance to fall back on.

III.  The Structural Contradictions

Beyond the specific allegations, the post-primary period has revealed structural contradictions that compound the problem. The ADC’s own Guidelines, issued under document reference ADC/NWC/PE/001/2026, prescribe a five-member Governorship Election Appeal Committee. The committee actually constituted for Kaduna State has only three members. This means the very body now tasked with adjudicating the petition may itself be improperly constituted under the party’s rules — a fact that could render any decision it makes susceptible to further challenge.

The Guidelines also specify that the Appeal Committee chairman must be a legal practitioner. Whether this requirement was met is a matter that deserves scrutiny. And critically, the Electoral Committee, whose conduct is under challenge, and the Appeal Committee now hearing the challenge, were both appointed by the same National Working Committee whose judgment El-Rufai had already called into question. The structural independence that credible adjudication requires is, at minimum, compromised in appearance, even if not in fact.

These are not technicalities. In a party whose entire brand proposition rests on institutional integrity, such contradictions between prescribed standards and actual practice are deeply corrosive.

IV.  The Broader Danger: Goodwill Is Not Infinite

Political goodwill operates on a logic similar to financial credit — it takes considerable time and consistent behaviour to build, and can be destroyed with alarming speed. The ADC’s current wave of support is real, but it is also fragile, because it is largely aspirational. People have not yet seen the ADC govern; they have invested hope in what it promises to be. That makes its conduct of internal processes not less important but more so, because right now, how the party treats its own members and aspirants is the only tangible evidence voters have of how it will treat citizens if it wins power.

A party that deploys thugs at its own primaries, that ignores the warnings of its own leaders, that constitutes committees in violation of its own guidelines, and that then routes complaints through an Appeal Committee of questionable constitution — that party is not offering voters an alternative to what they already know. It is offering them a more eloquently packaged version of the same thing.

If this perception takes hold, and it is already forming, the consequences will be severe. The ADC’s most valuable assets — the defectors from other parties, the civil society goodwill, the international attention, the young voters mobilising for the first time — are all conditional on the party remaining what it claims to be. Many of these stakeholders have alternatives. They can return to where they came from, or simply disengage entirely. A mass exodus triggered by disillusionment is not a dramatic possibility; it is a rational response to evidence.

V.  The Kaduna Dimension

Kaduna State deserves particular emphasis because it is not simply one state among many. It is a bellwether. It carries the political profile of El-Rufai, whose national name recognition and credibility were among the factors that drew attention to the ADC in the first place. A perception that his influence was marginalised — or worse, that the primary was conducted in a manner designed to sideline his preferred candidates — goes far beyond Kaduna. It sends a signal nationally about who actually controls the ADC’s machinery and whose interests it truly serves.

Kaduna is also a fiercely contested political environment where the ADC had genuine prospects for 2027. Those prospects depend entirely on the party presenting a united, credible front. Disputed primaries, unresolved grievances, and aspirants who feel wronged do not produce united fronts. They produce parallel campaigns, strategic withdrawals of support, and the kind of internal sabotage that Nigerian political parties know all too well.

VI.  The Legal Quagmire

If the internal appeals process fails to deliver justice — either because the Appeal Committee is improperly constituted, or because its decisions lack credibility, or because aggrieved parties escalate externally — the ADC risks entering a web of litigation that will dominate its pre-election period. Court injunctions against the use of a candidate’s name, challenges to the validity of the primary itself, and INEC-related complications arising from disputed results could paralyse the party’s 2027 campaign machinery at the state and national level simultaneously. Nigerian political litigation moves slowly enough that cases filed today can remain unresolved on election day — and an unresolved cloud over a governorship candidate is a gift to opponents.

The ADC’s own Guidelines warn against this explicitly, noting that internal disputes that escalate to court will distract from the electoral mission. That warning is now prophetic.

VII.  What the ADC Must Do

The path forward is not mysterious. The Appeal Committee must act with courage and genuine independence, not as an instrument of ratification for a flawed outcome. If the evidence supports the allegations — and the documented record suggests it substantially does — the committee must say so, clearly and without equivocation. A fresh, properly supervised primary must be ordered.

Beyond Kaduna, the NWC must conduct an honest national audit of how primaries were conducted across other states, and address systemic lapses before they become the subject of additional petitions, legal challenges, and media narratives. The party’s monitoring teams, whose reports must exist, should be scrutinised to understand how these irregularities were either missed or not acted upon.

Most fundamentally, the party must demonstrate — through action, not rhetoric — that its institutional promises are real. Every grievance left unaddressed, every irregular committee decision left standing, every warning from senior leaders left unheeded, chips away at the one thing that no political party can afford to lose and easily regain: the presumption that it is different.

Conclusion

The ADC is at a crossroads that is more consequential than it may yet fully appreciate. The 2027 general elections represent a genuine opportunity to reshape Nigerian politics in ways that matter. But opportunities of this kind are not permanent. They expire. They expire when the public concludes that a party promising change is, in its internal conduct, indistinguishable from what came before.

The clumsy handling of the Kaduna gubernatorial primary is not merely an administrative embarrassment. It is a test of institutional character. Nigerians are watching — not just the outcome of the petition, but how the party responds to it. The ADC still has time to show that its guidelines are not decorative documents, that its leaders’ warnings are not ignored, and that its members’ votes are not disposable commodities. But that time is not unlimited, and it is running.

Sources & References

This essay is an independent commentary based on the following documents: ADC Guidelines for the Conduct of Primary Elections (April 2026, Ref: ADC/NWC/PE/001/2026); Petition by Prof. Muhammad Sani Bello against the conduct of the Kaduna State Governorship Primary Election (27th May 2026); Urgent Message to ADC National Leadership by Malam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai (20th May 2026, ICPC Detention Day 94); ADC Process and Procedure Guide to Electoral Committee Members issued by the National Organising Secretary; State Electoral and Appeal Committees for Kaduna State issued by the ADC National Publicity Secretary.

By Ukasha Kofarnassarawa 

Like almost everyone, I saw that Sheikh Ali Isa Ibrahim Pantami is now PDP’s gubernatorial flag bearer for Gombe State. Congratulations to him. Pantami is now everything he once criticised. But that’s not my focus here; the internet has receipts for anyone interested in digging.

The real calculation:

Amid all the “consensus-coronation” drama unfolding nationwide, many observers expected Sheikh to defect to either ADC or the NDC, which are seen as the strongest opposition blocs. But Abuja is playing a different game. This looks calculated.

Right now, the entire core North — both North-West and North-East — is held by APC governors, except Bauchi, which lately switched to APM. The party’s structure and acceptability are widely seen as weak, and the state is likely to return to APC in the next election, given its current flag bearer, the former governor of the state.

For the President’s party, having zero opposition across the whole core north would be a dangerous optics problem. It would look like a monopoly. To avoid that, Abuja needs to “sacrifice” 2  core northern states to the opposition, just to create balance. One in the northwest and the other in the northeast.

And among all opposition parties, PDP is the “lesser evil” from Abuja’s view because one of its sons controls a major faction there. So Pantami decamped to the PDP, which functions as an extension of the APC. The plan: he gets “appointed” governor to create the illusion of balance, then switches to the main APC immediately after winning.

Abuja’s handwriting is not hard to understand.

Ukasha Kofarnassarawa wrote via Ukasha_sani@yahoo.com.

By Uzair Adam

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has won the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential primaries held in Kano State.

Announcing the outcome, chairman of the electoral committee, Dr. John Ayuba, said the exercise was successfully conducted across the 44 local government areas and 484 wards of the state.

The collated results showed that Atiku polled 155,595 votes to emerge ahead of other contenders. Mohammed Hayatu-Deen secured 15,914 votes, while Rotimi Amaechi received 9,994 votes.

Dr. Ayuba explained that the results would be forwarded to the party’s National Coalition Centre in Abuja for ratification and official confirmation of the party’s presidential candidate.

He urged party members to remain united and committed ahead of the 2027 general elections to ensure the ADC produces Nigeria’s next president.

Meanwhile, the party has delayed the announcement of results for the Kano governorship primaries pending further directives from the national leadership.

The governorship race is being contested by Ibrahim Ali Amin Little and Malam Ibrahim Khalil, with the party reportedly considering a consensus arrangement to choose its candidate.

By Abdullahi Mukhtar Algasgaini

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has accused the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) of blocking access to former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, following the denial of a party delegation to visit him at the Commission’s headquarters in Abuja.

A delegation comprising the ADC National Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola; National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi; and Salihu Lukman, Secretary of the ADC Policy and Manifesto Committee, was refused entry to see El-Rufai, who remains in ICPC custody.

According to the party, the situation escalated when at least three truckloads of armed police officers arrived at the facility, creating a tense atmosphere. The ADC described the heavy security deployment as disproportionate and unnecessary, given the peaceful nature of the delegation.

“The heavy deployment… created the unmistakable impression that the authorities feared that the mere presence of opposition leaders at the Commission could trigger public outrage,” the party said in a statement signed by Abdullahi.

The ADC noted that it had previously written to the ICPC Chairman, Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, requesting visitation rights for El-Rufai amid concerns raised by his family over alleged denial of access to doctors and food. The party recalled that Hajiya Asia El-Rufai had publicly alleged that her husband was refused access to his doctor and that she was prevented from delivering food to him.

While acknowledging that the ICPC has denied these allegations, the ADC insisted that the continued refusal to allow party leaders to see El-Rufai deepens suspicions about the nature of his detention.

“Mallam Nasir El-Rufai is not a fugitive. He voluntarily submitted himself to the authorities. Under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, he is entitled to dignity, medical care, family access, and fair treatment under the law,” the statement read.

The ADC warned that “Nigeria and the world are watching” and demanded that the ICPC immediately grant unrestricted access to El-Rufai by his family, doctors, lawyers, and party leaders, threatening to mobilise party members nationwide if access continues to be denied.

By Abdullahi Mukhtar Algasgaini

Abubakar Malami SAN, former Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, has officially submitted his governorship nomination and expression of interest forms at the National Secretariat of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Abuja.

The former minister, who confirmed the submission through his office, described the move as the formal launch of what citizens in Kebbi State are calling “Operation Rescue” — an effort to pull the state out of deepening insecurity, economic paralysis, collapsing public schools, crumbling healthcare facilities, and rising despair.

According to a statement issued by Mohammed Bello Doka, Special Assistant on Media to Malami SAN, the former AGF submitted the forms in full compliance with ADC’s party guidelines. The announcement has since triggered an overwhelming wave of excitement across Kebbi, where residents have grown weary of leadership failure, the statement said.

Malami, who served eight years at the federal level, positioned himself not as an ordinary politician but as a tested national leader ready to deploy strategic competence to restore security, revive agriculture, rebuild infrastructure, and return hope to the people of Kebbi.

The ADC platform, he affirmed, represents a rising political force rooted in accountability, inclusion, and development. His candidacy, the statement added, offers a formidable alternative to a status quo that has left over sixty-seven percent of school-age children out of school, farmers displaced by banditry, and maternal deaths needlessly soaring.

The former minister has since commenced intensive consultations across all local government areas to perfect the rescue agenda.

“The people of Kebbi are no longer waiting for relief that never comes; the rescue has officially begun,” the statement read. “Every citizen who desires an end to leadership failure is hereby called to join this movement to reclaim Kebbi State from the brink of total collapse.”

By Aremu Haroon Abiodun

Let me begin with clarity and sincerity. I write this not as a partisan actor, not as a loyalist of any political party, and certainly not as a hired megaphone for any candidate. I write from the standpoint of an analyst, a student of democratic behaviour, and a public relations strategist who understands that politics is not only about power; it is also about perception, timing, trust, and structure.

This piece is not designed to insult President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, attack the ruling APC, mock the opposition, or discredit any politician. Rather, it is an honest attempt to interrogate one of the most defining questions of Nigeria’s approaching democratic race: Is the new coalition a movement of salvation or merely a market of ambition?

In every democracy, coalitions can either rescue nations or ruin trust. In Africa, where democracy is still battling poverty, elite capture, and personality politics, the answer matters deeply. Across the continent, from Kenya to South Africa, Senegal to Zimbabwe, fragmented opposition groups often unite to challenge incumbents. Sometimes they succeed; sometimes they collapse under the weight of ego and suspicion.

Coalitions are usually built on five promises: to rescue the nation, restore democracy, defeat bad governance, unite the opposition vote, and provide a better alternative. But behind these promises often lie hidden motives: personal ambition, ticket negotiation, political survival, revenge against former allies, and access to state power. This is why many coalitions look holy in public but bleed distrust in private.

Nigeria may now be entering that exact season. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), once a relatively minor platform, is suddenly being discussed as a possible shelter for heavyweight politicians dissatisfied with their former homes. But before Nigerians clap, they must ask a dangerous question: Do the coalition members even trust themselves? 

Parties are not built by logos; they are built by loyalty, and loyalty cannot be photocopied overnight.

Nigeria’s politics has become a railway station where leaders keep changing platforms while asking voters to stay loyal.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not emerge by accident. His journey moved through the AD, AC, ACN, and finally the APC. He mastered a core truth that many others underestimated: structure beats noise.

While others chased headlines, Tinubu built networks, state influence, and grassroots machinery. Whether loved or criticised, he represents a masterclass in long-term political engineering.

Atiku’s route has been equally dramatic, moving from the PDP to the APC, back to the PDP, and now toward discussions with ADC. No politician in modern Nigeria has contested the presidency with as much persistence. 

Supporters call it resilience; critics call it endless ambition. But as time moves on, the ADC coalition may represent strategic urgency rather than just ideology, a final gamble in a house where the inheritance is uncertain.

Peter Obi’s path from APGA to the PDP, the Labour Party, and now ADC tells the story of a reformer searching for a machine. Obi proved in 2023 that popularity can shake systems, but popularity without nationwide structure has limits. 

If Obi brings credibility and a coalition brings machinery, the equation is powerful. However, can a reformist brand coexist with old political warlords? Movements are powered by hope, but coalitions are powered by compromise.

Moving from the PDP to the APC, the NNPP, and now the ADC, Kwankwaso commands a loyal bloc in the North. He has what every coalition needs—a dedicated voter base—but he also has what coalitions fear: independent ambition. The success of any merger will depend on whether arithmetic can overcome ego.

The urgency for a coalition is often driven by the stark reality of election data. In Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election, the opposition’s fragmentation was clear. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu won with 8,794,726 votes (36.6%), while the combined votes of the three main opposition candidates, Atiku Abubakar (6,984,520), Peter Obi (6,101,533), and Rabiu Kwankwaso (1,496,687), totalled 14,582,740.

Mathematically, the opposition held over 60% of the total vote, but their inability to unite resulted in a win for the incumbent’s structure. This “voter math” is the primary engine behind the current migration toward the ADC; politicians realise that without a unified front, sentiment rarely defeats a settled structure.

Having that in mind, can Atiku trust Obi? Can Obi trust establishment figures? Can Kwankwaso trust a ticket arrangement? Coalitions often fail not because they lack votes, but because they lack trust.

Sooner or later, the “Ticket War” arrives. If Atiku wants one last shot, Obi believes his momentum was stolen, and Kwankwaso believes northern arithmetic favours him, the smiles will disappear. A coalition before a primary is romance; a coalition after a primary is war.

Furthermore, many underestimate the “Tinubu Factor.” Hatred of an incumbent is not a development plan. Tinubu remains a formidable strategist because he controls incumbency power and understands coalition management better than many of his rivals. To defeat a strategist, anger is insufficient, but superior organisation could be the way out.

From a strategic communication perspective, the narratives are already forming. APC’s narrative centres on stability, continuity, and ongoing reforms. ADC represents a force for “Rescue Nigeria,” unites the opposition, and restores hope.

Both parties face a risk. The ADC risks being seen as a shelter for serial defectors, while the APC risks seeming disconnected from economic pain.

Lastline 

Nigeria does not merely need a coalition of politicians; it needs a coalition of ideas, competence, and national healing. If the ADC becomes a real reform movement, it can change history. If it becomes only a marketplace of ambition, it will prove that parties change names faster than systems change realities.

The real contest of 2027 may not be APC vs. ADC. It will be structure vs sentiment, trust vs suspicion, and nationhood vs ambition. On that day, Nigerians, not politicians, will deliver the final verdict on who rules in the next four years.

Haroon Aremu is a public relations strategist and wrote in via exponentumera@gmail.com.