2027 elections

By Zayyad I. Muhammad 

President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election is both a political and strategic calculation. Rather than introducing uncertainty into an already established political partnership, the President has chosen continuity, a decision that reflects the realities of Nigeria’s electoral politics, geopolitical balancing, and coalition-building.

Politics, particularly presidential politics in Nigeria, is rarely driven by sentiment. It is fundamentally about numbers, alliances, regional interests, and electoral strategy. Every major decision is weighed against one overriding objective: securing the broadest possible coalition needed to win an election. Viewed from that perspective, retaining Shettima was arguably the most pragmatic option available to the President.

One of the most immediate advantages of the decision is that it effectively closes the chapter on the controversy surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket. Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, the APC’s decision to field two Muslim candidates generated widespread debate, especially among many Christians who expressed concerns about religious inclusion and national balance.

However, after more than three years in office, that issue has largely lost its political intensity. While differing opinions remain, the fears that dominated public discourse during the 2023 campaign have, to a considerable extent, subsided. By retaining Shettima, President Tinubu has denied political opponents the opportunity to revive an issue whose electoral potency has significantly diminished.

Beyond the religious debate lies an even more delicate consideration: Nigeria’s geopolitical balance. Had President Tinubu replaced Shettima with another politician from the North-East, the North-West, the country’s largest voting bloc, could have interpreted the move as another instance in which its political aspirations were overlooked, potentially reigniting debates about equity and representation.

Conversely, choosing a replacement from the North-West would almost certainly have generated discontent in the North-East. Having produced the incumbent Vice President, the region would naturally expect to retain the position. Removing Shettima without any compelling political or governance justification could have alienated key stakeholders and weakened support in a region that remains strategically important to the APC.

Some time ago, a number of individuals campaigned for the selection of a northern Christian as the Vice President, arguing that a Muslim-Christian ticket would be more politically acceptable. While the proposal appealed to those seeking religious balancing, it overlooked the practical realities of Nigerian presidential elections.

For a southern Muslim presidential candidate seeking the presidency, pairing with a northern Christian is not necessarily the most pragmatic electoral formula if the objective is to maximise support across Northern Nigeria. Presidential elections are rarely won on symbolism alone. They are won through careful coalition-building, political structures, regional alliances, and voting strength. In Nigeria, electoral success is driven as much by geopolitical realities and numbers as it is by perception.

President Tinubu has built his political career on strategic calculation rather than emotional decision-making. Over several decades, he has demonstrated an ability to assemble winning political coalitions by focusing on electoral arithmetic, regional dynamics, and long-term political stability. His decision to retain Shettima is consistent with that political philosophy.

There is also the question of continuity. Since assuming office in 2023, Tinubu and Shettima have worked together to lead the administration, build relationships across government, and strengthen the APC’s political structures nationwide. Replacing a sitting Vice President without a compelling reason could have created unnecessary speculation about internal divisions and handed the opposition a fresh political narrative.

By retaining Shettima, President Tinubu has instead projected stability, confidence, and consistency. The decision preserves an established partnership, reassures party supporters, and allows the APC to approach the 2027 election with a united front.

Ultimately, successful presidential campaigns are built not on emotion but on careful political judgment. Difficult decisions are inevitable, but experienced politicians choose the option that minimises political risk while maximising electoral advantage.

Judged against Nigeria’s electoral realities, geopolitical sensitivities, and the imperative of preserving a broad national coalition, President Tinubu’s decision to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima was not only the least controversial choice,it was the most politically strategic.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.

By Prince Daniel Aboki

Every Nigerian has the constitutional right to support any political party or candidate of their choice. That right is guaranteed by the Constitution and should always be respected.

However, an industry cannot thrive when, every election cycle, a few individuals position themselves as speaking on behalf of everyone, mobilising groups to endorse politicians and, in the process, reducing the industry’s engagement with government to the pursuit of personal benefits.

When this becomes the dominant culture, the industry risks not being taken seriously. Government and development partners are beginning to see the industry not as a strategic economic sector but as a collection of individuals seeking patronage every four years. More often than not, the distribution of cash gifts, vehicles, and other favours also creates avoidable divisions within the industry, as practitioners become aligned with competing political interests. Instead of fostering unity around the collective growth of Kannywood, election seasons too often leave the industry fragmented long after the campaigns have ended.

Politicians understand the influence that Kannywood celebrities command, particularly in Kano and across Northern Nigeria. They know these personalities can shape public opinion, mobilise supporters, and amplify campaign messages during elections. That influence is valuable, but it should be used as a bargaining tool to secure lasting benefits for the entire industry—not for personal aggrandisement. Our collective influence should translate into meaningful negotiations for better policies, sustainable funding, stronger institutions, improved infrastructure, and greater opportunities for everyone in Kannywood, rather than short-term personal gains for a few individuals.

Kannywood is far bigger than election campaigns. It is one of Northern Nigeria’s greatest cultural and economic assets. It has the capacity to create thousands of jobs, preserve and promote our culture, strengthen social values, attract tourism, earn foreign exchange, stimulate investment, and project Northern Nigeria to the world.

What makes this even more compelling is that Kannywood has already demonstrated its commercial strength. Some of its producers operate some of the biggest and most successful YouTube channels in Nigeria, attracting millions of views and building significant audiences worldwide. That success should not remain the achievement of a few individuals. It should be consolidated into an industry-wide strategy that creates opportunities for younger filmmakers, actors, writers, directors, editors, cinematographers, musicians, and other creative professionals.

This is the conversation we should be having with those in office and those seeking public office.

Rather than seeking cash gifts, vehicles, or personal favours, we should be demanding policies that strengthen the entire industry: film villages, production funds, affordable financing, stronger copyright protection, modern cinema infrastructure, professional training, international partnerships, tax incentives, and support for participation in global film markets and festivals. That is how enduring creative industries are built.

Over the years, Nollywood has increasingly engaged government and development partners on issues that strengthen the industry’s ecosystem. The conversation has largely centred on policy, investment, institutional support, skills development, financing, and international collaboration. Individual practitioners may support political candidates—as they are entitled to—but the industry’s long-term development has remained a central focus.

This does not mean Nollywood is a perfect congregation. There have also been individuals within Nollywood who have pursued personal interests above the collective interest of the industry. However, when the two industries are compared, Nollywood has, on balance, positioned itself more effectively as a strategic partner in industry development, policy engagement, and institutional growth. Kannywood can do the same.

We must stop approaching politicians with a cap in hand every election season. An industry with this much talent, influence, and economic potential should not present itself as a sector waiting for handouts. It should present itself as a partner in development—one capable of creating jobs, generating revenue, attracting investment, promoting tourism, preserving culture, and contributing meaningfully to the economy of Northern Nigeria.

Politicians will respect Kannywood when Kannywood first respects its own value. This is not a criticism of anyone’s constitutional right to participate in politics or support a candidate. Rather, it is a call for Kannywood to recognise its collective economic power and organise itself as an industry worthy of sustained investment, strategic partnerships, and long-term development.

The question should no longer be, “Who is giving us what?” The question should be, “What policies, investments, and partnerships will transform Kannywood into one of Africa’s most competitive creative industries?”

The future of Kannywood will not be determined by what a handful of individuals receive during an election season. It will be determined by what the entire industry builds together for generations to come.

The choice before us is simple: we can continue chasing political patronage every four years, or we can build an industry that creates wealth, creates jobs, attracts investment, shapes culture, and becomes impossible for governments and the rest of the world to ignore.

Prince Daniel is “A Concerned Citizen” and a filmmaker. He can be reached via blackvillemedia@gmail.com.

By Haroon Aremu 

In recent days, I have watched a growing wave of messages urging Nigerians to collect their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) before the deadline. Everywhere I turned, there were reminders, appeals, and passionate campaigns encouraging citizens to obtain their voter cards and prepare to vote. Some messages urged people to “vote out bad leaders,” while others called on Nigerians to “vote for change” and “take back their country.”

As I read these messages, I found myself reflecting deeply. Rather than joining the chorus immediately, I paused and asked a question that many of us seem reluctant to confront. What makes us so certain that the person we are urging people to vote for today will not become the same person we criticise, condemn, and perhaps even curse tomorrow?

This question is not intended to discourage voting, but is mainly directed to the youth rather than others. Democracy thrives when citizens participate. Every eligible Nigerian should obtain a PVC and exercise their constitutional right to vote. However, voting without deeper reflection may only lead us into a cycle we have repeated for decades.

The reality is that many of the leaders Nigerians complain about today were once celebrated as political messiahs. At one point or another, they were symbols of hope. They made promises that inspired confidence. They convinced millions that they possessed the solutions to the nation’s problems. Their supporters defended them passionately and often believed that once they assumed office, prosperity, security, and development would naturally follow.

Yet, as time passed, many of those same leaders became subjects of disappointment. The expectations that accompanied their emergence gradually gave way to frustration. Citizens who once praised them began to criticise them. 

This pattern raises an uncomfortable but necessary question. Is Nigeria’s problem merely about replacing one leader with another, or is it deeper than that?

Election seasons often resemble a search for a political saviour. Every cycle produces a new candidate who is presented as the answer to the nation’s challenges. Supporters speak about them with almost religious conviction. Opponents are dismissed, while supporters insist that their preferred candidate possesses the vision, courage, and competence needed to rescue the country. However, once the realities of governance emerge, many leaders themselves begin to admit that the challenges they inherited were greater than they anticipated.

How many times have Nigerians heard leaders say, “We didn’t know the situation was this bad”? How many administrations have entered office with grand promises only to later explain why those promises could not be fulfilled? If this pattern keeps repeating itself across different administrations, perhaps the issue is larger than individual politicians.

As an analyst of human behaviour and societal trends, I have come to believe that leadership is often a reflection of the society from which it emerges. We frequently focus on the leaders at the top while ignoring the conduct of the people at the bottom. We condemn corruption in high offices while celebrating dishonesty in everyday life. We criticise politicians for abusing power while remaining silent when similar abuses occur in our communities, workplaces, institutions, and associations.

The truth is that leadership challenges are visible at every level of society. From class captains in schools to community leaders, from local associations to religious organisations, from traditional institutions to political structures, the same tendencies recur. Favouritism, greed, selfishness, abuse of authority, and lack of accountability are not problems exclusive to national leaders. They are societal problems that manifest differently at different levels.

This observation reminds me of a profound principle found in both the Bible and the Qur’an. In the Qur’an, Surah Ar-Ra’d 13:11 states that Allah will not change the condition of a people until they change what is within themselves. Similarly, the Bible in Proverbs 29:2 says

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice: but when the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn.”

. These teachings suggest that national transformation is not solely dependent on political leadership. It is also connected to the values, character, and behaviour of citizens.

Perhaps this explains why changing leaders alone has not always produced the transformation Nigerians desire. A society cannot continuously reward negative values and expect positive outcomes from those it elects. If selfishness, dishonesty, and corruption become normalised among citizens, it becomes increasingly difficult to expect public officials to behave differently once they attain power.

This does not mean leaders are not important. Leadership matters. Policies matter. Governance matters. Elections matter. However, believing that a single individual can solve every national challenge may be one of the greatest misconceptions in modern politics.

 Some of the world’s most developed countries are struggling with challenges that cannot be solved overnight by a single leader.

Nigeria’s problems are complex. They require visionary leadership, yes, but they also require responsible citizenship, strong institutions, accountability, productivity, innovation, and a cultural shift in how people relate to one another and to the nation.

Therefore, while I fully support the call for Nigerians to obtain their PVCs, I believe the conversation should go beyond voting. The more important question is what happens after the election. Are we willing to demand integrity from ourselves as much as we demand it from politicians? Are we prepared to contribute positively to our communities, workplaces, and institutions?

Most importantly, before passionately campaigning for a candidate, perhaps each of us should ask a simple question: if this person eventually wins and fails to meet expectations, will I become one of those criticising them tomorrow?

If the answer is yes, then perhaps our focus should not be solely on changing leaders. Perhaps it should also be about changing ourselves.

Haroon Aremu Abiodun is a developmental journalist who writes from Abuja and can be reached via exponentumera@gmail.com.

By Muhammad Muhammad Salisu Esq.

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, the alliance between the Kwankwasiyya and Obidient movements is attracting significant attention. On paper, it looks like a powerful partnership. Kwankwasiyya has a strong following in Kano and much of the North, while the Obidient movement enjoys significant support among young people and urban voters, especially in the South.

Together, they could become a formidable political force. But there is a problem.

Both movements have increasingly developed a reputation for attacking critics, insulting opponents, and treating disagreement as betrayal. Politics is a game of persuasion, not intimidation. A movement that insults everyone outside its camp may excite its loyal supporters, but it will struggle to attract the undecided voters needed to win national elections.

The situation worsened when some Kwankwasiyya supporters recently made comments perceived as disrespectful toward the late Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto. For many Northerners, the Sardauna is not just a historical figure. He is regarded as one of the architects of modern Northern Nigeria, a leader who championed education, institution building, economic development, and regional unity.

Attacking such a widely respected figure is politically damaging. It alienates many Northerners who might otherwise be sympathetic to the movement and raises questions about the judgment of those involved.

This is why Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso needs to clearly distance himself from such attacks. In politics, silence is often interpreted as approval. A simple and firm defence of the Sardauna’s legacy would reassure many people that the movement respects Northern history and values.

The larger lesson is straightforward. No political movement can build a successful national coalition through insults, bullying, hostility, or attacks on respected historical figures. Winning elections requires discipline, maturity, tolerance, and respect for people who hold different opinions.

The Kwankwasiyya-Obidient alliance has the potential to become a serious national alternative. But potential alone is not enough. If both movements continue down the path of intolerance and political hostility, they risk pushing away the very voters they need.

The choice before Kwankwasiyya is simple: either grow into a movement capable of governing Nigeria or remain trapped in a cycle of unnecessary controversies and self-inflicted political wounds.

In the end, political movements are remembered not for how loudly their supporters shout, but for the wisdom, discipline, and judgment they display when it matters most.

Muhammad Muhammad Salisu Esq. wrote via muhammad.writes01@gmail.com.

By Ismail Bello Darazo 

Competence has become a problem in the Nigerian political system. It is quite unfortunate to witness how political office-holders are replaced by incompetent politicians, all in the guise of loyalty, who cover their records while in office without any consequences and who also have the ability to influence policymaking even after leaving office. However, the successor would remain dependent, and his deliberations would be centred on serving his Godfather’s interests rather than providing better representation and good governance to his people, should this happen. He would end up dancing to the puppet masters’ orders, godfathers.

Nevertheless, good representation can be achieved when the right people hold political office, but this practice has become a thing of the past, especially during the consensus period being postulated by the ruling APC. The best leadership that tremendously transformed Nigeria occurred in the past, and it was not achieved through consensus; rather, it enabled people to produce those who could wake up to their collective development.

You’ll see an outgoing governor vouching for someone who lacks the credibility and qualifications to deliver good governance, yet he imposes that candidate on his people despite having better options among the contestants.

One million dollar questions are: When handpicking the competent candidates for any elective positions, why consider less competent aspirants that would make it difficult for the party to win an election? Or why are better options ignored? Lo and behold! Is the handpicking in the interest of the generality? Or is competence no longer a priority, or who, after all, benefits from the selection? These questions, nevertheless, have kept ringing in my mind.

My submission to power shapers or moulders is: always do your best, and it will come back in an unexpected way. Give your people the leadership they deserve, not your personal interest. In my undergraduate days, I learnt from the qualities of a good leader that “Public interest supersedes personal interest.” Give good people the opportunity to change the narrative, not those who will drag us backwards.

Ismail Bello Darazo writes from Bauchi State via Ismailbello054@gmail.com.

By Usman Abdullahi Koli

Amidst scarcity, poverty, and hunger, there are ironically unharvested fruits in abundance. We gazed up while ripe fruits flooded our soil. This is similar to the literary work of American poet Robert Frost, the author of the poem “Unharvested.” The great writer penned this poem to draw attention to the fact that some good things remain outside our systems of use, ownership, and planning, so that simply encountering them can be innocent again.

One of Frost’s most popular poems is “The Road Not Taken,” a work that conveys the feeling of trying new things, of stepping outside the status quo.

This is relatable to the just-concluded primaries of different political parties, particularly in Bauchi State. It came with opportunities but, sadly, represented a missed opportunity to harvest the prosperity it offered. As a citizen of this great state, I felt a missed opportunity in selecting flag bearers for the parties.

Bauchi has Dr Bala Maijama’a Wunti, who occupies a significant conversational space—not politically, but for his selfless impact over the years. He provides assistance that offers direct relief.

‘Technocrat with Compassion’

His professional grounding is firmly within the Nigerian National Petroleum Company system, where he spent over three decades in a demanding technical environment defined by discipline, precision, and accountability. Yet that institutional record, while significant, does not fully explain how his name moved beyond the corporate space into everyday social memory.

That movement happened through lived encounters that people still recall: a school fee quietly settled at a critical moment, a medical situation resolved when options had run out, a household supported through difficult times without the experience ever becoming a public display.

What makes Bala Wunti different from many other public figures from this corridor in Bauchi is not merely what he did, but how he carries himself while doing it. He is not a man who raises his voice to make a point. He does not need to announce his presence before entering a room.

Those who have worked closely with him describe a person who listens more than he speaks, who waits for others to finish before offering his own view, and who treats a person with nothing the same way he treats a person with everything. That is not performance; that is simply who he has been for as long as anyone can remember.

His humility is not the rehearsed kind that politicians put on during campaign seasons. It shows itself in small, unguarded moments that people notice without being told. He does not interrupt. He does not belittle. He does not make anyone feel small for not knowing what he knows.

He has a way of making you feel that your question is intelligent, your concern is valid, and your presence is welcome. In a society where power is often displayed through intimidation and loudness, his quiet dignity stands out like a calm person in a noisy room. You do not notice it at first, but after a while, you realise it is the only thing worth paying attention to.

His patience has been tested many times, especially during moments of political disappointment, and in every instance, he has refused to let frustration turn into rash action. He does not rush people. He does not force decisions before their time. He waits. He watches. He acts only when the time is right. That is the mark of a man who has nothing to prove and everything to protect.

His integrity is equally defining. Bala Wunti does not say one thing in private and another thing in public. What you see is what you get. He does not make promises he cannot keep, and he would rather lose an opportunity than lose his honour. In environments where verbal commitments are often discarded the moment they become inconvenient, that consistency has become legendary among those who have dealt with him.

His generosity is well known, but what is less discussed is the manner of it. He gives without making the recipient feel indebted. He helps without being reminded. He supports without keeping score. There are people in Bauchi today who have received life-changing assistance from him and have never once been made to feel like beggars.

Words of Robert Frost, in “Unharvested”: ‘As complete as the apple had given man.’ This depicts the abundance nature offers to man. This is what Bala Wunti has been offering on all fronts.

His composure through adversity is a quality that has earned him the deepest loyalty. When he was set aside by the political machinery, when the system pushed him out of consideration despite people’s desire for him, he did not rage. He did not threaten. He did not use his supporters to fight battles he could have easily started.

He simply returned to his foundation. He returned to the work he had been doing before ambition entered the picture. He accepted the outcome not with the weakness of resignation but with the strength of a man who knows that his worth is not tied to a title. That kind of self-control is extremely rare. It is the kind of thing people remember long after they have forgotten who won the election.

His supporters do not follow him because of what he promised them. They follow him because of what they have seen him do when no one was watching. They follow him because he has never made them feel like tools to be used and discarded.

They follow him because when they speak, he actually listens—not with the impatience of a man waiting for his turn to talk, but with the full attention of someone who believes that what they have to say matters. That is not leadership taught in any school. That is leadership that comes from a place deeper than training. It comes from a heart that has not been hardened by ambition.

History has a way of remembering men like this. In old emirates, before colonialism restructured everything, there were figures who never held official titles but remained in the memory of their communities for generations. They were the ones people turned to when formal authority was too distant or too compromised. They gave without keeping accounts.

They served without demanding recognition. They died, and people buried them with their own hands, and then they told stories about them for decades afterwards. A figure like that has not appeared in Bauchi for a very long time. Bala Wunti is that figure. It will be said that the fruits of abundance were unharvested.

Usman Abdullahi Koli wrote via mernoukoli@gmail.com. 

By Muhammad Abubakar

A major crisis has erupted within the Peoples Democratic Party in Gombe State following the emergence of former minister Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami as the party’s governorship candidate ahead of the 2027 election.

One of the aspirants, Alhaji Abdulkadir Hamma Saleh, alongside other contenders including Khamisu Ahmed Mailantarki, Usman Aliyu Garry, and Monica Kaltho, rejected the outcome of the PDP primary held on Tuesday. Pantami was declared winner through a voice vote after delegates affirmed him as the party’s sole candidate.

The aggrieved aspirants argued that Pantami was ineligible to contest the PDP primary because he had only recently left the ruling All Progressives Congress after participating in its internal political process. They claimed electoral laws do not permit a politician to contest in two different party primaries within the same election cycle.

Saleh also questioned the sudden postponement of the PDP primary from Sunday to Tuesday, describing the process as unfair and unlawful. He confirmed that his legal team had begun preparations to challenge Pantami’s emergence in court and urged his supporters across Gombe State to remain peaceful while the matter is resolved legally.

Pantami, who recently defected from the APC after criticising the party’s consensus arrangement that produced Jamilu Isyaku Gwamna as a candidate, said his decision to join the PDP was driven by a desire to tackle poverty and improve governance in Gombe State.

A response to Barr Ahmed Umar Farouk.

My dear learned brother, Barr Ahmed Umar Farouk, as I pledged to respond to your post, let me briefly add a few lines, as my learned friend, Barr Hassan Saraki, has already engaged you on the other issues you raised, which I think makes my work easier. 

According to the Nigerian Constitution, any Nigerian aged 35 years and above can contest the senatorial seat. This legal provision makes Governor Bala Abdulkadir Mohammed fully qualified to run for the Bauchi South Senatorial District seat in the 2027 general elections. 

As a retired director from the federal service, a senator for about 3 years, a minister for more than 5 years, and currently a sitting governor serving a 2nd 4-year term, these alone are exceptional qualities that make Senator Bala Abdulkadir the best choice for the Bauchi South senatorial district. Could this ring a bell for you?

His contributions to the Senate gave him an edge over all the contestants across all political parties. His brief sojourn in the red chamber was notable for his active legislative role and key administrative positions within the Senate. His contributions during this period primarily focused on committee leadership, advocacy for reform, and a landmark constitutional motion. 

Key among his legislative contributions was the Doctrine of Necessity Motion during the political uncertainty of late 2009. He courageously moved the motion that empowered then-Vice President Goodluck Jonathan as acting president during President Umar Musa Yar’Adua’s illness, effectively resolving a looming constitutional crisis. 

Senator Bala Mohammed was recognised as one of the most outspoken and vibrant legislators during plenary sessions. He championed bills focused on public service reform and anti-corruption, advocating for greater transparency in governance. During his two years in the Senate, Senator Bala Mohammed tackled essential social issues by providing water and sanitation infrastructure, improving health facilities, and addressing youth unemployment and other social challenges, among other initiatives. 

Senator Mohammed served as a member of several committees and held strategic leadership positions, including Vice Chairman of the Senate Committee on Aviation, Secretary of the Northern Senators Forum, and member of the Committees on Communication, Finance and Public Accounts, Rules and Business, Environment, Labour and Productivity, and Senate Ad-hoc Committee on the Jos Crisis. 

As Governor for seven years, Bala Mohammed has implemented a series of reforms and projects aimed at transforming Bauchi State. His administration focuses on a blueprint designed to revitalise critical sectors of the economy. His achievements in health, education, and infrastructural development are clear examples of a representative and responsible government. 

This piece has done justice to the four items you presented as the reasons why Governor Bala Mohammed is the least suited to represent the Bauchi South senatorial district in the red chamber. 

Governor Bala Mohammed is contesting the Senate position not as a retirement home but to continue with the good works he started between 2007 and 2010. Don’t forget that His Excellency defeated a sitting governor, Dr Ahmad Adamu Mu’azu, with a landslide victory to win the Bauchi South senatorial seat in 2007. 

With these few paragraphs, I hope my learned brother can see the differences between His Excellency Governor Bala Abdulkadir Mohammed and the other contestants, which are far below his pedigree, given his educational qualifications and requisite experience in governance and national assignments.

Isyaka Laminu Badamasi is of No 555, Ajiya Adamu Road, Bauchi, Bauchi State.

By Isyaka Laminu Badamasi

As political parties in the country gear up to conduct primary elections in preparation for the 2027 general elections, they should ensure strict adherence to the laid-down procedures put in place by electoral acts and those of their parties to avoid further internal wranglings and legal tussles that will ultimately harm the party’s chances of winning the election or maintaining victory in courts. 

The process adopted by some political parties in some states for selecting the party’s flag bearers for different posts exposes how stakeholders underestimate voters’ power by fielding candidates who are far below the electorate’s goodwill and requirements for winning elections. 

The electoral acts recognise only two processes that political parties can follow in conducting primary elections: direct primaries, which allow party card-carrying members to elect their candidates, or consensus, which allows contestants to withdraw their contests and announce their support for one person among themselves. 

As seen in many states that adopt the consensus process in selecting their candidates and the issues that followed so far, it is clear that stakeholders neglect the powers of voters by anointing persons with questionable political values as their preferred candidates without considering the legal implications of such decisions (remember Zamfara state) or the electoral values of the persons they selected.

If public acceptance and popularity are the selling points of any politician, then some candidates do not possess the qualities of a counsellor, but present themselves as gubernatorial aspirants, either because they can afford the nomination forms and want to trend and remain relevant in the scheme of things or because they are playing a deceitful game in the event of joining the negotiations table.

While appealing for a peaceful conduct of free and fair process from the remaining political parties that are yet to conduct their primaries, they should also be mindful of the people they will present for elections, as winning elections do not limited to the platform (political party), it is about goodwill, clear and practicable manifesto and the electoral values of the persons they presented as their flag bearers. 

To the electorate, they should ensure their voter cards are accessible. To those who do not possess the ‘electoral weapon’, the third phase of the Continued Voter Registration (CVR) will commence today, Monday, 11th May 2026, and end on Friday, 10th July 2026. During this period, eligible citizens who have reached the age of 18, as well as those who were unable to register in earlier phases, should seize this opportunity to do so.

We at the Initiatives for Sustainable Development (I4SD) are committed to ensuring free, fair and peaceful conduct of the 2027 general elections in the country. 

Isyaka Laminu Badamasi is of No 555, Ajiya Adamu Road, Bauchi, Bauchi State.

By Aremu Haroon Abiodun

Let me begin with clarity and sincerity. I write this not as a partisan actor, not as a loyalist of any political party, and certainly not as a hired megaphone for any candidate. I write from the standpoint of an analyst, a student of democratic behaviour, and a public relations strategist who understands that politics is not only about power; it is also about perception, timing, trust, and structure.

This piece is not designed to insult President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, attack the ruling APC, mock the opposition, or discredit any politician. Rather, it is an honest attempt to interrogate one of the most defining questions of Nigeria’s approaching democratic race: Is the new coalition a movement of salvation or merely a market of ambition?

In every democracy, coalitions can either rescue nations or ruin trust. In Africa, where democracy is still battling poverty, elite capture, and personality politics, the answer matters deeply. Across the continent, from Kenya to South Africa, Senegal to Zimbabwe, fragmented opposition groups often unite to challenge incumbents. Sometimes they succeed; sometimes they collapse under the weight of ego and suspicion.

Coalitions are usually built on five promises: to rescue the nation, restore democracy, defeat bad governance, unite the opposition vote, and provide a better alternative. But behind these promises often lie hidden motives: personal ambition, ticket negotiation, political survival, revenge against former allies, and access to state power. This is why many coalitions look holy in public but bleed distrust in private.

Nigeria may now be entering that exact season. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), once a relatively minor platform, is suddenly being discussed as a possible shelter for heavyweight politicians dissatisfied with their former homes. But before Nigerians clap, they must ask a dangerous question: Do the coalition members even trust themselves? 

Parties are not built by logos; they are built by loyalty, and loyalty cannot be photocopied overnight.

Nigeria’s politics has become a railway station where leaders keep changing platforms while asking voters to stay loyal.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not emerge by accident. His journey moved through the AD, AC, ACN, and finally the APC. He mastered a core truth that many others underestimated: structure beats noise.

While others chased headlines, Tinubu built networks, state influence, and grassroots machinery. Whether loved or criticised, he represents a masterclass in long-term political engineering.

Atiku’s route has been equally dramatic, moving from the PDP to the APC, back to the PDP, and now toward discussions with ADC. No politician in modern Nigeria has contested the presidency with as much persistence. 

Supporters call it resilience; critics call it endless ambition. But as time moves on, the ADC coalition may represent strategic urgency rather than just ideology, a final gamble in a house where the inheritance is uncertain.

Peter Obi’s path from APGA to the PDP, the Labour Party, and now ADC tells the story of a reformer searching for a machine. Obi proved in 2023 that popularity can shake systems, but popularity without nationwide structure has limits. 

If Obi brings credibility and a coalition brings machinery, the equation is powerful. However, can a reformist brand coexist with old political warlords? Movements are powered by hope, but coalitions are powered by compromise.

Moving from the PDP to the APC, the NNPP, and now the ADC, Kwankwaso commands a loyal bloc in the North. He has what every coalition needs—a dedicated voter base—but he also has what coalitions fear: independent ambition. The success of any merger will depend on whether arithmetic can overcome ego.

The urgency for a coalition is often driven by the stark reality of election data. In Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election, the opposition’s fragmentation was clear. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu won with 8,794,726 votes (36.6%), while the combined votes of the three main opposition candidates, Atiku Abubakar (6,984,520), Peter Obi (6,101,533), and Rabiu Kwankwaso (1,496,687), totalled 14,582,740.

Mathematically, the opposition held over 60% of the total vote, but their inability to unite resulted in a win for the incumbent’s structure. This “voter math” is the primary engine behind the current migration toward the ADC; politicians realise that without a unified front, sentiment rarely defeats a settled structure.

Having that in mind, can Atiku trust Obi? Can Obi trust establishment figures? Can Kwankwaso trust a ticket arrangement? Coalitions often fail not because they lack votes, but because they lack trust.

Sooner or later, the “Ticket War” arrives. If Atiku wants one last shot, Obi believes his momentum was stolen, and Kwankwaso believes northern arithmetic favours him, the smiles will disappear. A coalition before a primary is romance; a coalition after a primary is war.

Furthermore, many underestimate the “Tinubu Factor.” Hatred of an incumbent is not a development plan. Tinubu remains a formidable strategist because he controls incumbency power and understands coalition management better than many of his rivals. To defeat a strategist, anger is insufficient, but superior organisation could be the way out.

From a strategic communication perspective, the narratives are already forming. APC’s narrative centres on stability, continuity, and ongoing reforms. ADC represents a force for “Rescue Nigeria,” unites the opposition, and restores hope.

Both parties face a risk. The ADC risks being seen as a shelter for serial defectors, while the APC risks seeming disconnected from economic pain.

Lastline 

Nigeria does not merely need a coalition of politicians; it needs a coalition of ideas, competence, and national healing. If the ADC becomes a real reform movement, it can change history. If it becomes only a marketplace of ambition, it will prove that parties change names faster than systems change realities.

The real contest of 2027 may not be APC vs. ADC. It will be structure vs sentiment, trust vs suspicion, and nationhood vs ambition. On that day, Nigerians, not politicians, will deliver the final verdict on who rules in the next four years.

Haroon Aremu is a public relations strategist and wrote in via exponentumera@gmail.com.