Opinion

Re: 2023, Osibanjo-Zulum ticket

By Tajudeen Ahmad Tijjani

This is a response to the mischievous interview published by the Dailypost on Friday, which was credited to one Dr Garus Gololo. This brings the camp of Hon. Mohammed Garba Gololo to our feet and compels us to officially clear the air on this purported interview lest the general public confuses the pseudonym Garus Gololo as the reputable Hon. Mohammed Garba Gololo.

Dr Garus Gololo was quoted by the Daily Post to have said, “APC should field Vice President, Yemi Osibanjo, and Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State, for an overwhelming victory in the 2023 presidential election”. In the interview, he uttered many unprintable statements on some of the party’s critical stakeholders like our National Leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Secretary to the Federal Government, Boss Mustapha and the incumbent Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu.

To avoid doubt, Gololo is a name of a particular village in Gamawa LGA of Bauchi State, which many aboriginals use as their last name as it’s a common practice in Northern Nigeria. Therefore, anybody can pick the surname Gololo, but there is no APC chieftain with such a name in our blessed constituency to the best of our knowledge. We suspect it’s done to soil the courteous relationship between our Boss and the APC hierarchy.

Our Boss, Honorable Muhammad Garba Gololo, who was a representative of Gamawa Federal Constituency 2015-2019 in the green chamber, and a stakeholder in his own right and a loyal member of the APC, has nothing to do with that malicious interview.

It’s pertinent to remind the public that the relationship between Honorable Muhammad Gololo, Professor Yemi Osibanjo, Bola Ahmad Tinubu, Governor Babagana Zulum, Mr Synergy, Boss Gida Mustapha and Governor Akeredolu is cordial and intact. Therefore, no amount of blackmail would jeopardize the long-standing friendship that was built on trust and disposition.

Indisputably, Honorable Gololo is a firm believer in destiny. Beyond a shadow of a doubt, only God, the creator of the universe, gives power to whom he so wishes at his appointed time, regardless of tribe, religious or political inclination. Besides, health and life are prerogatives of God; none of us has the guarantee of reaching tomorrow talkless of 2023 that’s far ahead.

Notwithstanding, Hon. Garba Gololo as a devoted APC member is opposed to anything contrary to the provisions of our great party’s Constitution, which has yet to zone its presidential candidate to any region. However, let’s make it clear that our camp will not allow any deliberate or coincidental attempt to set up our principal against the party he laboured for right from its founding days all through the thick and thin that brought it to power.

We hope the general public will accept this as a disclaimer from the political camp of Hon. Mohammed Garba Gololo, which categorically disassociated our principal from the said interview.

Tajudeen Ahmad Tijjani writes from Bauchi State.

Afghanistan: Superpowers’ invasion and history of resistance

By Aminu Rabiu Kano

 

The history of Afghanistan is one characterized by epic tragedy. The narrative of the “Afghan problem” has been diverse, with each actor telling their side of the story in a bid to justify their action or inaction as the case may be. A poor, landlocked Afghanistan is one of the few countries in the world which events happening in and around it have been dominating the headlines for decades. Both the mainstream and social media are obsessed with happenings in the country. Indeed, even the layman on the street is more or less interested in the Afghan problem to the extent that virtually everyone can say one or two things about it. The question that follows, therefore, is, why is the world interested in happenings in Afghanistan? In other words, why are developments in Afghanistan capable of generating reactions around the world? Also, why have the superpowers in history found it necessary to invade Afghanistan?

 

To answer the above questions, we must begin by establishing the geopolitical relevance of Afghanistan on the world map. Afghanistan is doubtlessly strategically located. It is at the crossroads of Central and South Asia. It borders Pakistan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It is predominantly mountainous and inhabited by approximately 32 million people – nearly 45% of whom speak the Pashtun language. Moreover, the Afghan population is primarily Muslim. This reason, coupled with the fact that it borders Iran, Afghanistan is sometimes seen as a part of the “Wider Middle East.”

 

From the list of the countries bordering Afghanistan, one will realize the geographical importance of Afghanistan in the international political environment. Of the five countries that bordered it, Iran and China stand out. However, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan had been part of the former Soviet Union that fell apart in the 1990s. This implies that Afghanistan has been a neighbour to glorious powers both in the past and present.

 

Therefore, it was invaded severally by several empires across ages due to its essential, strategic location. For example, Alexander The Great of the Macedonian empire invaded Afghanistan in 330 BC as part of the war against Persia. Alexander saw that he could only get the Persian empire subdued by invading Afghanistan. Similarly, foreign powers such as the Persian Empires, the Mongol Empire led by Khan Ghengis, the Mughal Empire, the Timurid Empire, the Rashidun Caliphate, and the Sikh Empire conquered Afghanistan.

 

Little wonder, Afghanistan, even in the modern era, grappled with yet other rounds of invasions, but this time around by the “superpowers”. The superpowers being the USA and the USSR. During the cold war, these superpowers used Afghanistan, among other countries, to test their military, economic and political powers. It all started when, in April 1978, the People Democratic Party of Afghanistan overthrew the Afghanistan government. Nur Muhammad Taraki, secretary of the PDPA, became president of Afghanistan. But Taraki’s government was communist in orientation and enacted some policies that were not well received by the masses. Thus, the masses hated government, and, as a result, Taraki was overthrown by Hafizullah Amin in September 1979. Despite the change of government from Taraki to Amin, opposition to communist rule continued even under Amin. In December 1979, Amin was shot and replaced by Babrak Kamal, who was in exile in Moscow. Kamal’s government heavily relied on the Soviet military for support and protection against his vast opponents.

 

Opposition to the communist government continued, which prompted the USSR to invade Afghanistan, deploying more than 50,000 soldiers. This occupation was even met by fierce resistance by Afghans, who have joined the Mujahedeen – a guerilla movement that proclaimed to be fighting anti-Islamic forces in Muslim lands. The Mujahedeen would later be referred to as the “Taliban”. The Taliban was formed by Mullah Muhammad Umar, who recruited young Muslim students from Afghanistan and neighbouring Pakistan to fight the Soviet Military. Over the next ten years, hundreds of thousands of lives were lost. In the end, the Soviet military was forced to withdraw from Afghanistan.

 

However, the mujahedeen (or the Taliban, if you like) did not fight the war alone: they were heavily supported, armed and financed by the USA, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. USA was mainly instrumental in its support to the Taliban because it feared that if the USSR succeeded in occupying Afghanistan, its national interests would be threatened. In fact, the US’s intervention was informed by the need to resist the advance of what former President Reagan called the “evil vampire”. Then, the two superpowers – the USA and USSR – were in the heat of the cold war. Therefore, the US saw that if the Soviet Union succeeded in implanting communist rule in Afghanistan, the domino theory would materialize. This means that the USSR would also succeed in spreading communist ideology into those countries neighbouring Afghanistan. Most Fundamentally, by gaining the control of the Middle East, the USSR would determine oil and gas supply to the US and its allies in the West. This meant that the Soviets could do great harm to the US economy and those of its allies by cutting off the oil supply since oil was a vital product so crucial that military and industrial operations heavily depended on it.

 

After the withdrawal of the Soviet military from Afghanistan, the Taliban formed an Islamic government. Osama Bin Laden – a Saudi citizen – was instrumental in fighting the Soviet army. As the son of a rich and influential citizen in Saudi Arabia, Osama contributed substantial financial resources to the Afghanistan war that lasted for ten years. He later formed Al-Qaeda, which was said to be a terrorist movement determined to liberate the Muslim land from Western influence. On 11 September 2001, 4 aeroplanes were hijacked by, allegedly, the Al-Qaeda. Two were flown to the Twin Towers housing the World Trade Centre, one flown to the Pentagon and the other to Pennsylvania. As a result, more than 5000 people lost their lives, and critical government infrastructures were destroyed.

 

The US was quick to blame Osama’s Al-Qaeda for the tragic 9/11 event. The US President George Bush soon declared war on terror. The war was first on Afghanistan, which led to the overthrow of the Taliban government. After that, the American forces established a democratic government with its foundation in and allegiance to American imperialism. However, after 20 years of occupation, the Taliban expediently returned to power when the US forces willingly decided to withdraw from Afghanistan.

 

From the foregoing, three lessons can be learned. One, Afghans have a genetic history of resistance to foreign domination. Second, Afghanistan is a strategic country that played an important part in the Great Game power struggles for centuries. Finally, it is evident from the above that Afghanistan’s series of invasions was no end in itself, but a means to an end. Put it more succinctly, Afghanistan is a gateway for foreign powers. Its invasion would allow the superpowers to dominate the Asian continent, including the oil-rich Arab world. Overall, Afghanistan, despite its myriad of aggression by foreign superpowers, is still in existence. It survives!

 

Aminu Rabiu Kano is a political and public affairs analyst. He can be reached via 08062669232.

Does North want to retain power?

By Aliyu Nuhu

Northern leaders are expressing their position on 2023 election. The North wants to retain power. They rely on the Constitution and tenets of democracy to reach their conclusion. Nigerian constitution does not recognize power rotation or zoning. They said democracy is a game of numbers, and that since the North has the numbers it can rule forever.

For North to actualize its “day”dream, it should also field both presidential and vice presidential candidates from the North. That will ensure they keep power even if the president dies or suffers from infirmity.

Well let us just say our laws are flawed given our peculiar plural nature. Leadership of Nigeria cannot follow the law and still keep Nigeria in one piece and we are entirely to blame.

In every election win, Nigerians know how to bask on ethnic triumphalism and use power to alienate other tribes. Nepotism defines Nigerian leadership. If the North has been treating Nigeria as a one entity in fairness, the complain from the South will not be much. But look at Buhari presidency and tell me why a Southerner will want to remain under the northern rule, where both the Northerners and Southerners suffer greatly!

Fortunately APC does not think like northern elders. The party will pass its ticket to South West. APC has what it takes to win 2023 election. PDP will field a northern candidate, and surely that will be its funeral.

So far Nigeria is not matured for democracy. We are still learning the ropes. One day we shall get to that point where the origin and religion of leaders don’t matter. That will only happen if we eschew tribalism, nepotism and bigotry and appoint people to position based on competence.

Aliyu Nuhu is a socio-political analyst, from Abuja, Nigeria

If there was Biafra

By Ahmadu Shehu, PhD.

It is no longer debatable that Nigeria, despite its crippling challenges, may never disintegrate, at least geographically. Of course, the animosities, hatred and distrust between the ethnic and regional nationalities might worsen, but Nigeria’s elasticity is exemplary and uncommon. However, I still do not accept the convenient folktale deployed by politicians that our country’s unity is non-negotiable. By now, our experience as a nation should have liberated our minds to begin a conversation on any topic of national interest, no matter the controversy or emotional delicacy.

As we approach the 61st birthday of our beloved country, I find it imperative to discuss this controversial but important issue. From the outset, let me clarify that this article is not about the Igbo as an ethnic group or the southeast as a region. Given the rise in pro-Biafra sentiments and agitations at the moment, this article is only meant to provide an outsider view of some arguments espoused by the secessionists in their attempt to generate sympathy and popularity.

When you think of Nigeria’s disintegration, the first thing that comes to mind is Biafra – a defunct Igbo separatist nation in the country’s southeastern part. The attempt to curve this region from Nigeria in 1967 remains one of the most gruelling experiences of our country. A barely six-year-old nation was thrown into chaos by a set of greedy politicians and unscrupulous military officers who wanted power at the centre. Within those thirty months, millions of innocent citizens lost their lives, got injured or lost their possessions. In addition, Nigeria lost a large chunk of its national treasury meant to set the country on the right footing. The rest, as they say, is history.

Instead of learning from our past mistakes to avoid the recurrence of this destructive, reckless and unnecessary event, Nigerians of this generation seem to be oblivious of the necessary truth. As with most factual historical events in the Nigerian psyche, this painful experience, its true causes, and damning consequences are not well-known to the younger generations. The biased narratives in various country sections ensure that our population only hear the stories that suit their mindsets without alternative facts that would open their minds to self-criticism.

In the case of Biafra, most of the young Igbo folks have a pretty false image of their fate as a people if Biafra had happened. This skewed imagination is not unconnected with the biased, often imaginative stories these young Nigerians were told about their defunct “nation”. The Igbo popular culture and the intelligentsia depict a fictional image of Biafra as a dream-nation where the Igbos shall live in peace and prosperity devoid of challenges.

They imagine, albeit naively, that Biafra will be unlike Nigeria and that their lot would have been better than it is today. These unsuspecting chaps are led into believing a mirage of living in a nation flowing with honey and milk. They are also told that other ethnic and geopolitical sections of Nigeria are responsible for all their woes. They argue, albeit ignorantly, that if not for the North, the West, Hausa, Fulani, Yoruba, etc., theirs would have been a heaven on earth. These ignorant tales conclude that a united Nigeria does not help their course as a people.

Well, I think that these views are simplistic. I also believe that it is our responsibility to tell our brethren the truth that they need to hear. Firstly, the creation, proclamation of Biafra was not in the interest of the ordinary Igbo people. It was the last-ditch by Igbo politicians to hide their faces from problems they caused and ensure they stayed in power. Secondly, our brethren are mischievously told that the Igbo were so rich that the Igboland was the largest economic contributor to the federation. Unfortunately, the falsity of this assertion is not far-fetched, as the southeast was and is still the least contributor to the Nigerian GDP. Moreover, during the attempted secession, Nigeria’s GDP was mainly from the agricultural sector, predominantly from the North.

Thirdly, it seems that many people are misled into believing that Biafra would be an oil-rich country even though none of the Southeastern states is truly oil-producing. The Niger Delta, Nigeria’s oil pot, was not and will never be part of Biafra.

Fourthly, young Igbo people tend to believe that the southeast was Nigeria’s cash-cow at independence. The bitter truth is that even in the ’60s, the perceived strong Igbo economy depended entirely on other regions. This scenario is worse today as there are probably more Igbo people and Igbo businesses in other parts of the country than in Igboland. Worse still, the Igboland is closed and unfriendly to Nigerians, making external investments impossible.

The most supposedly intelligent argument advanced by the secessionists hinges on the current centralized federal system. They claim that the centre is too powerful and that Igbo states are marginalized. This is an argument of convenience, at best. Nigerians are not oblivious that the current unitary system was the handwork of Igbo politicians who saw a unitary arrangement as the answer to their political agenda. Today, the tides have turned, and these very people are calling for the system they abolished. Restructuring this country – whatever that means – might be a good idea, but only after a genuine debate that will ensure we do not return to the same vicious circle.

People with secessionist tendencies have used the challenges in northern Nigeria as reasons for disintegration. However, Biafra will by no means be a safer or better place. Currently, some of the most terrible crimes bedevilling this country are not unconnected with the southeast. From drugs to internet fraud, armed robbery and kidnapping to arms smuggling, if not worse, the southeast is not holier than other parts of this country.

Another commonplace argument is that the industrious nature of the Igbo people is enough evidence that Biafra will be a great country. But this argument, too, has failed to account for the fact that the wealthiest and most successful Igbo people and their businesses owe their success significantly to Nigeria and not Igboland. The Igbo people are traders, and the economic success of trading lies in the customer market, not the number of sellers. What do the Igbo people actually produce or sell that does not rely on the larger Nigerian population?

On the one hand, there is nothing that the southeast offers that cannot be produced or sold by other Nigerians. But, on the other hand, everything from food to livestock, energy, and the market for everything sold depend on the other regions. The southeast is asking to leave under this situation is the most absurd strategic blunder of the century.

Similarly, Igbo politicians and administrators have not distinguished themselves from the rotten Nigerian public servants. We do not see a difference between southeastern institutions or southeasterners in Nigerian public offices and their counterparts in other regions or ethnic groups. The same crop of people will lead Biafra. So, nobody should be enthusiastic.

Therefore, it is evident from the preceding that the viability of Biafra as an independent state is not assured. For one, it will be a landlocked, forty-one thousand kilometres square piece of land, which is just a half of Niger state and less than the size of Kaduna state. Worse still, it will be circled on all four corners by its biggest adversary, the Nigerian state. Secondly, it will depend on its biggest adversary for nearly everything except air, including waterways, food, and labour. Third, it would be one of the most overpopulated countries vis-à-vis its landmass and population.

The bitter truth is that these ecological, geographical, demographic and economic factors do not support the presupposition that the Igboland is better off as a separate entity than it is within the Nigerian federation. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that even if Biafra was to happen on a platter of gold, it is not going to be the rose garden these populists have configured our brothers to believe. Thus, we should all look before we leap!

 

Dr Ahmadu Shehu is a nomad cum herdsman, an Assistant Professor at the American University of Nigeria, Yola, and is passionate about the Nigerian project. You can reach him at ahmadsheehu@yahoo.com.

The danger of ‘otherization’

By Mukhtar Garba Maigamo

 

The trending video that surfaced after President Buhari attended the UNGA in New York, showing an unprovoked assault on some people that are considered “Hausa-Fulani” or “Northern Muslims” by their provocateurs on account of their facial countenance and, or the apparels in them, is a perfect example of the deep-rooted hatred, obsessions and insecurities bedevilling many people in some parts of this country which translated into this dismissive ‘othering’.

 

It is even very possible that these two or three people in the video who are being verbally assaulted with a barrage of racist abuses and the most opprobrious language, share no cultural or ethnolinguistic affinities with Fulani, but because of the fact the racialization of the Buhari/APC government has taken a firm root, the entire people of the North are lumped together as either Fulani or Hausa-Fulani (whatever that means) and demonized by many people in the South, including even the most educated ones. What a profoundly ignorant mischaracterization!

 

This sort of ignorance has historically also manifested in the ‘Aboki’ and ‘Gambari’ ethnic slurs these people used with profound contempt.

 

But the striking irony is that there are many people here in the North or even residents of Daura (hometown of Mr President) who might have felt disillusioned with the Buhari’s administration, who could also share cultural, ethnic and religious affiliations with him. Still, they are worst-off today, and there are those also who do not share these features with the president. Still, by their circumstances or by way of geography, they are lumped together and mischaracterized as Fulani or Hausa Fulani.

 

But the danger of this otherization and the racialization of APC is that it could provoke ethnic and religious sentiments during elections and make people rally around a maligned candidate- whether he is the right choice or not, in terms of capacity and ability to deliver.

 

When, because of your pathological hatred of a single person, his party or associations, you pigeonhole an entire stock of his ethnic nationality and derogate as dregs of the country, you are invoking his people’s consciousness to rise against you whether or not they love him.

 

This same thing happened during GEJ when some clannish zealots otherized the entire country, but south-south. Under GEJ watchful eyes, Edwin Clerk and his passengers went about with rhetorics and threatened fire and brimstone against anyone who raised eyebrows against their posturing.

 

His wife also went about demonizing the North as the habitat of almajiri (the almajiri that are menacing the North too, and whom many people in the North were campaigning against).

 

Her infamous diatribe, “our people no dey born shildren wey dem no dey count. Our men no dey born shildren throway for street. We no dey like the people from that side” was the final straw that galvanized the anger of people to rise and rally around ethnic solidarities to defeat GEJ.

 

The victory of APC in 2015 and 2019 was, therefore, a combination of many factors, including the idealization and evocation of sentiments for candidates put forward by the party.

 

And this will continue to play out if the antipathy like the one we’ve seen in this video continues.

 

Mukhtar Maigamo writes from Kaduna. He can be reached via mgmaigamo@gmail.com.

Governors’ forums do more harm than good in Nigeria

By Abubakar Ibrahim

Those looking for devolution of powers to make the states more powerful than the centre had forgotten about history.

The Soviet Union (USSSR) collapsed when it gave more powers to its states.

Nigeria government has given Governors’ clubs (governors forum; southern governors forum, northern Governors forum, etc.) leverage to the extent that they are now flaunting executive orders.

No governor obeyed the executive order to give monthly allocation directly to local government councils, legislature and judiciary in their respective states.

The antics of southern governors, especially of Rivers, Lagos and Ogun, will send Nigeria to its waterloo.

Governors forums have made them act as devils instead of angels. They have frustrated the inflow of funds to LGAs, state legislatures and judiciary. They have refused to pay the correct minimum wage.

Governors forums have done more harm than good. They are only good at wasting state resources in crisis, crossing the skies in charted flights attending their meetings at various locations. The worst scenario is they will leave their states at the mercy of nobody. Hence, this stagnates work until they are back.

It is time for these unproductive governors forums to be abolished. We like to see state governors behaving like former governors with integrity, people like late Governor Jakande, who had never travelled outside Nigeria and never run away from his state responsibilities throughout his tenure.

Governors like Audu Bako, through under a military regime, would only travel out to bring back goodies for the ordinary person, such as “irrigation schemes” that Kano people are still benefiting from after all these long years. It is a legacy he left behind.

Nigerians should come back from supporting politicians who are only good at building themselves and championing the course of disintegration.

Abubakar Ibrahim can be contacted via ai869802@gmail.com.

CBN/Aboki FX Saga: Currency Play and Lessons from Billions TV Show

By Abdulhaleem Ishaq Ringim

 

While explaining the reason behind the Central Bank of Nigeria’s clampdown on the parallel market exchange rate aggregation and publication website, AbokiFx, the CBN Governor submitted that the CBN’s preliminary findings suggested that AbokiFX was used for foreign exchange “manipulation and speculation”.

“They get Naira notes, use it to purchase dollars, take a position, change the rate over a given period, sell the dollars they purchase and make a profit. This is completely illegal and unacceptable and we will pursue them”, he said.

This remark sparked rage in the minds of many Nigerians, most of whom are oblivious of the technicalities of foreign exchange market operations. They outrightly dismissed the move by the CBN on AbokiFX as a mere attempt to shift the blame on the consistent crash of the Naira against the Dollar to AbokiFX. They considered it somewhat impossible that AbokiFX’s operations could have any impact on the exchange rates.
But currency play or currency manipulation is real, and even while it might indeed be an attempt by CBN to shift blame, the possibility of currency manipulation cannot be discounted. And to understand how it works, one needs to be conversant with some basic FOREX trading operations; the “long” and “short” positions.

A “long” position in FOREX trading signifies buying a particular currency at a certain rate by selling another currency while expecting the bought currency to appreciate against the sold currency. Let’s take NGN and USD for example, going long on this currency pair means buying Naira at a lower rate(by selling US Dollars) and selling it at a higher rate as it appreciates to buy back the Dollar sold initially. For example, one goes long if he buys NGN at the rate of let’s say N100(by selling $1) and sells the Naira as it appreciates perhaps to N50(for $1) to buy back $2 now instead of $1 thereby making a $1 profit. Meaning he bought N100 by selling $1 and now 1$ is N50, so N100 will now be worth $2 since N50 represents $1 now.

A “short” or “short-sell” position signifies borrowing a particular currency at a certain rate to sell and acquire another currency while expecting the borrowed currency to depreciate against the acquired currency so that you can buy it back at a lower rate. Let’s use the same example of NGN and USD, a short-sell would mean borrowing let’s say N50 and selling it to acquire $1, then wait until the Naira depreciates to N100 per $1, then sell your $1 dollar to buy back N100 now instead of the N50 it was before thereby realizing a profit of N50. Meaning one borrowed N50, sold it for $1, then waited until $1 equals N100, then sells his $1 which now represents N100.
Now, recall the CBN Governor’s statement of suspicion about how AbokiFX is being used for currency manipulation and compare it with the explanation of the “short-sell” above, you’d definitely find a correlation. But how does the manipulation happen?

I was able to find an answer to this question while watching “Billions” which is a TV show about the financial markets and their many intrigues. An episode titled “Currency”, which is the 5th episode in season 2 of the TV show was majorly about how Nigeria’s currency could be manipulated.

In the episode, a certain financial markets trader claimed that Nigeria’s CBN Governor told him that the Naira was going to be devalued due to the increasing weakness of the country’s oil industry and overvaluation of the country’s currency. However, the timing was ambiguous as nobody knew when the devaluation would happen.

However, he suggested that there was a way the timing could be determined and controlled, and that is if somebody takes a massive “Short” position against the Naira so as to pressurize the CBN to devalue immediately. The “short” he said would have to be massive. He was unveiling this to a hedge fund manager.

The hedge fund manager saw it as an opportunity to prop up his profits but knows clearly that a “short” position from only him would not do the work. So he sought the advice of a renowned banker and economist and he was counselled to assemble some other hedge fund managers(his competitors), pitch the idea to them so that they could work together to achieve a massive “short” against the Naira. And this he did.

He assembled them and offered them the glad tidings. Some of them raised concerns regarding the risks attached to this form of “currency play” because one has to enter the position at the right time for one can go too late and find nothing or enter too early and get wiped out due to increased interest rates. He convinced them that they could control the timing by taking monster “short” positions against the Naira. They all bought the idea and collectively agreed to “short” the Naira with a $5 Billion worth “short” position. And so they did.

Unfortunately, one of them had personal grievances with the hedge fund manager that brought the idea and he saw this as an opportunity to get back at him. So he leaked the information and CBN was alerted and they started raising interest rates which could bleed the hedge fund managers who took this massive “short” out of their trade positions.

Only one option remained for them to prevent losing their positions, and that was to get a renowned economist and banker to talk in a renowned international business television station about the Nigerian situation and conclude that the only option left for the country was devaluing their currency. So he reverted back to the economist that initially advised him about the situation and they finished the work together by granting an interview to a renowned international business television station concluding that Nigeria’s only remaining option was devaluing their currency. And so it happened and they profited massively from their “short” positions.

Even though this American TV Show is a work of fiction, it describes clearly and perfectly how a country’s currency can be manipulated by speculators hoping to benefit from the manipulation. And this is exactly what AbokiFX might have been doing with their platform as the value of a currency to a large extent is determined by people’s perception of and confidence in the currency. Hence, the CBN Governor’s alarm and subsequent measure. This is only but a possibility though, as the CBN has not yet offered substantial evidence to back this, the measure is still a product of “preliminary findings”.

Another possibility, however, is as described by the first-generation model of currency crisis as presented by Paul Krugman (and adapted from Stephen Salant and Dale Henderson’s model of speculative attacks in the gold market). Krugman explains that fixed exchange rate regimes are usually prone to attack by speculators especially when stakeholders perceive that the fixed regime is coming to an end due to certain fiscal and monetary signals.

And to tackle this,  I must end by concurring with Tope Fasua’s suggestion as presented in his article titled “As Nigerians joyfully gather to kill the naira”. He said, “The CBN must be very nuanced and professional in its pronouncements around the naira. Ignore the black market. Face your market. Know that there are speculators reading your lips and gauging your resolve. Most financial market players are shorting the naira already, constantly on the lookout for dollars. Shock them without saying a word. Be unpredictable. Ensure your information does not leak to the market until you take action. Subtly put out the word through proxies sometimes, but act independently.  Check your ranks. It is filled with non-believers in the Naira or even in the Nigerian project. What is going on presently is a speculative attack on the naira, through the black market.”

Abdulhaleem Ishaq Ringim is a political and public affairs analyst, he writes from Zaria and can be reached through haleemabdul1999@gmail.com.

Making Waqf a serious business in Nigeria

By Abdullahi Abubakar Lamido

 

Waqf, translated as Islamic endowment, simply means a perpetual charity. As a strategic Islamic socio-economic institution, it entails dedicating a benefit-creating or revenue-generating asset for the sustainable provision of free public services to the society – especially for the less privileged. It can be created by an individual, a group of individuals, a corporate body or even a governmental institution. Waqfable asset is that which is legally owned by the endower and is cable of perpetually creating benefit or generating revenues which would be channelled to defined religious or charitable purposes.

From the dawn of Islam passing through the periods of the companions, Umayyads, Abbasids, Ayyubis and the Ottomans, waqf was maximally utilized as a unique instrument for addressing virtually all aspects of societal religious, economic, educational, healthcare and environmental development needs. In fact, what “substantial historical evidence” suggests, as established by Islamic economic historians like Murat Cizakca and before him, Marshall G.S. Hodgson, is that, “waqf, not zakah was the most important institution for redistribution of wealth” in Muslim history.

Historically, waqf has sufficiently financed virtually all aspects of public welfare and developmental needs, especially education and healthcare. To wit, in the area of education, it was used for building schools, libraries, laboratories, student hostels and lodgings for teachers, scholars and researchers. It also funded scholarships, payment of teachers’ salaries and the provision of food, clothing, learning and instruction materials as well as creating conducive teaching-learning atmospheres. Great Muslim Universities were built as waqfs and have continued to be substantially financed from waqf proceeds. It grew so ubiquitous that “A person can be born in a house belonging to a waqf, sleep in a cradle provided by that waqf, be educated in the school of the waqf and read the books provided by it, become a teacher in the waqf school, earn a waqf-financed salary and at his death be placed in a waqf-provided coffin for burial in a waqf cemetery”.

Relating to health, waqf has been used to build hospitals, clinics and medical laboratories which provide a wide range of free medical services, including surgery. It is documented that it was due to the advancement in service provision through waqf that the need was not even felt for governmental ministries or departments for education and health, as these were fully financed by waqfs.

Education and health were not the only areas of waqf interventions. Waqfs sustainably financed all forms of social, economic and community development services including transportation, environmental protection and beautification among others. At some historical epochs, various Muslim nations relied on waqf sources for a substantial portion of their national income.  Waqfs were used to finance the building and maintenance of mosques, traveller’s lodgings, orphanages, bridges, water-wells, public conveniences, soup kitchens, roads, street lights and gardens.  In fact, in many Muslim communities, waqfs were created for the sustainable provision of all conceivable public welfare services. Until the colonization of Muslim societies, waqf remained a significant contributor to socio-economic development in many Muslim countries. It was colonialism that changed the subject of the formula.

Having realized how waqf provided social, cultural and economic independence to especially Muslim scholars and intellectuals, who incidentally were usually the most resilient class against selfish imperial policies; the colonial “monsters”, implemented well-orchestrated policies that saw to the hibernation of the waqf sector. They syphoned many waqf assets, weakened many, deliberately rendered many irrelevant, and calculatingly destroyed the functioning and autonomy of waqfs by subjecting them to government control. They created governmental ministries that coordinate waqfs, with all the negative consequences of that.

Worth stressing is the fact that western imperialists destroyed the waqf system in Muslim lands only after they had already copied the concept from the Muslim Middle East through the crusaders, and then developed it as an instrument for financing developmental services. In her celebrated 1988 study titled “The Influence of the Islamic Law of Waqf on the Development of the Trust in England: The Case of Merton College”, Monica Gaudiosi established that it was actually the waqf institution that gave birth to the concept of Trusts and Foundations in the West.  Modified and enhanced waqf was used to establish great western institutions such as the Merton College which still shares clear similarities with the waqf institution. And except for a few changes in the English law of Trust, most features of waqf have remained unchanged in the western practice of Trusts till date.

Interestingly, for more than two decades now there has been a growing global waqf reawakening. From the Middle East to Africa, and from the West to the East, waqf consciousness has continued to balloon. Despite the big blow that colonialism did to the waqf sector, making it reduced to merely an atomized institution concerned with financing some aspects of the spiritualties, the global Muslim communities have now rejuvenated their commitment to reposition waqf as a dynamic Islamic, third sector socio-economic institution. Waqf is seen and promoted as an engine of poverty reduction, wealth creation and distribution, employment generation and socio-economic development. In 2016, the World Bank noted that if properly harnessed “even if partly”, waqf, alongside zakah, can eradicate poverty in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. For a long time, combine global assets are estimated to be close to USD 1 trillion and growing.

Conversely, the story of waqf in Nigeria is largely different from other Muslim communities like Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and even others like Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Yes, waqf knowledge and practice have existed in Nigeria for well over a millennium. But for several reasons, including historical, it was not comprehensively institutionalized in Nigeria’s pre-colonial history as a holistic, comprehensive socio-economic institution that provides a wide range of public welfare and developmental services. Its knowledge and practice have largely been reduced to the religious waqf, mostly mosques, cemeteries and religious schools. Even these waqfs, hardly had other revenue-generating waqfs for their sustainable funding as obtained in other climes.

But why should waqf be of great significance to Nigerian Muslims? It is of course factual that poverty is largely a Muslim phenomenon in Nigeria. All official statistics show that the states with the highest poverty rate are the Muslim dominated states. The majority of the Muslim population live in sorry conditions of socio-economic deprivations; poverty, hunger, squalor, illiteracy and poor healthcare. Muslims account for the highest number of out of formal schools and vulnerable children. These – combined with other factors – have resulted in rising insecurity and underdevelopment. For long, the solution to this has been largely viewed by many as the sole responsibility of the government. Only a few have realized that while governments have a great responsibility, Muslims can only alleviate their sufferings if they explore, among other things, Islamic socio-economic institutions in addition to agitating for good governance.

One important instrument that can significantly reduce the poverty and socio-economic backwardness of the Nigerian Muslims is no doubt the waqf institution. The flexibility and dynamism of the waqf institution provide for the mobilization of diverse resources in the forms of cash, landed properties, real estate, and other resources, which would be developed and invested, such that their revenues and fruits would be channelled to developmental services.

Nigerian Muslims already have the potentials for this. The long history of Islamic belief and practice, the enthusiasm of the population towards anything connected to Islam, the high spirit of giving that exist within the rich, middle class and even the masses, the availability of Islamic intuitions such as mosques, Islamic schools and media channels, the prevalence of governmental and non-governmental zakah and waqf institutions, among others, all provide a handy infrastructure that can be explored and utilized in the campaign for a new holistic waqf regime in Nigeria.

Particularly, the growing atmosphere of waqf consciousness among the elites and Islamic scholars, as exemplified in the increased awareness creation and establishment of Islamic charitable foundations in especially the last five to seven years, all point to existing opportunities for making waqf a veritable instrument for socio-economic empowerment. All this can also be added to the vast arable land an array of professionals and intellectuals that the Muslim community is blessed with.  It is our opinion that with these and several other potentials, if philanthropic waqf were to be well studied, promoted, institutionalized and maximally harnessed and utilized, poverty would be largely reduced and socio-economic empowerment would be greatly triggered in Nigeria.

In this regard, there is the need to utilize several platforms for waqf discourse such that its potentials would be unearthed, its dimensions analyzed, its impediments examined; goals defined, priorities set and methods of actualizing the dream well spelt out. These platforms should bring together the Islamic scholars, business persons, professionals, community leaders and all important stakeholders to common thinking tables. In the light of this, the AZAWON Newsletter presents itself as a primary platform for debating, dialoguing and analyzing waqf matters (alongside other Islamic social finance instruments).

Scholars, intellectuals, professionals and other concerned citizens are therefore invited to continue contributing articles, reports (written, pictorial or otherwise), opinions, comments and all valuable information that can enrich and smoothen the journey to making waqf a serious business in Nigeria.

Malam Abdullahi Lamido is the Chairman, Zakah and Waqf Foundation, Gombe, Nigeria. He can be reached via lamidomabudi@gmail.com.

Emerging intrigues in Adamawa politics

By Mohammed Zayyad

The Ward and Local Government Congresses of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the replacements at the wards, and the preparation for the LGA congresses by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have brought to the fore the emerging intrigues in Adamawa politic: The attempt to outweigh each other in the control of the two party’s structures among the party stakeholders is apparent.

 

The APC congresses, in most cases, were conducted based on Abuja’s directives of consensus and that the incumbents offer the Right of First Refusal, including accommodating newcomers. While for the PDP – if you have held the office for up to 8 years, death or resignation, your office is automatically vacant.

 

An interesting scenario in the APC is in Mubi North and Mubi South LGAs – the place has a former immediate governor – Bindow Umaru Jibrilla, and a sitting Senator, Ishaku Cliff Abbo. Abubakar Jafaru Member Representing Mubi North, Mubi South and Maiha Federal Constituency appeared to have been schemed out. For instance, while the Bindow and Cliff group were at Yazaram Cinema waiting for the election to be conducted, the actual election took place at Yelwa Primary School, with Jafar having the upper hand. What also weakened Bindow active participation was the issue of the leaked audio against President Muhammadu Buhari.

 

Another place of interest is Yola North, Yola South, Girei and Song LGAs- Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed Binani, Adamawa Central, wanted to replace most of the Exco at those LGAs, but all her candidates lost woefully. Many people were surprised by Binani’s politics. The Excos Binani wanted to replace were those that assisted her in getting the senatorial ticket by narrowly defeating Aliyu Wakili Boya, Sarki Matasa.
In the APC congresses, three governorship hopefuls- Muhammadu Umaru Jibrill Bindow, Senator Cliff Ishaku Abbo and Senator Aishatu Dahiru Binani were casualties, while three other governorship hopefuls Modi Halilu, Nuhu Ribadu and Abdul Razak Namadaz appeared to have made their intelligent moves silently. Namdas doesn’t have any issues at his constituency.

On the other hand, Boss Mustapha was not that enthusiastic – he only showed interest in one or two places in Yola North and Hong LGA. Former Governor Murtala Nyako played the role of a stabilizer and elder. The person that called the shots the most was Comrade Mustapha Salihu, APC NorthEast Vice Chairman. He doggedly implemented the APC Caretaker Committee’s instruction of consensus, giving the incumbent the right of first refusal and accommodating newcomers. The big game will be at the state congress. In particular, the State Chairmanship position- the big picture will be more precise- the grievances, crises, and contentment from each stakeholder and the group will be more open.

The PDP, being the party in power in the state and having some considerable interest within it, its replacements at the ward level and preparations for other congresses were unique. Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri made some political attempts- Most of the loyalists of Chief Joe Madaki and former Governor Boni Haruna were blocked.

An interesting place is the Numan Federation, where the Deputy Governor comes from. Crowther Seth was made ineffectual at his base; the person pulling the string is the Member Representing Numan, Demsa and Lamurde constituency, Kwamoti Laori; he is Fintiri’s right-hand man. It is still a surprise to many that Crowther Seth was made ineffective at Numan Federation. However, some pundits said it shouldn’t be surprised- Seth, as Deputy Governor, still operate from his house, of which the road to the house is not even tarred. Therefore, many people see Numan Federation as the big losers in the Fintiri government, despite being the joker for the PDP in the 2019 governorship election.

To be fair to Governor Fintiri, a sitting governor often dictates the direction of his party, and, Fintiri’s politics now goes beyond Adamawa; it has national elements in it- so he must have ‘the home’ in his control. Fintiri has some big PDP national assignments. This is also knit with his political ambition and the Wike connection. It was reported that Governor Wike flew to Yola twice or thrice in a specific week to confer with Fintiri and left within some hours. – Any political tête-à-tête that cannot be done via a cell phone is a big one.

There is a report that Fintiri will definitely try as much as he can to replace A.T. Shehu as the state chairman of the PDP. That’s why some politicians are of the view that Fintiri refuses to empower Shehu economically.

 

Fintiri means business, you can’t blame him. Recently, when the move to fill in the vacant position at the PDP Board of Trustee which was created by the death of former Governor Wilberforce Juta, Fintiri presented the name of Hamza Madagali Adamawa PDP Organizing Secretary, but former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and PDP former National Chairman Uche Secondus intervened, and presented the name of Boni Haruna, being a former Governor as Wilberforce Juta.

 

As the intrigues in both the Adamawa PDP and the APC further unfold, we will analyze it from the angle of the moment.

 

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja, 08036070980, zaymohd@yahoo.com.

After 16 years, Germans vote for Merkel’s successor

By Muhsin Ibrahim

German Chancellor Angela Merkel doesn’t need any introduction. Divorced and with a doctorate in Physics, Merkel, 67, has been a leader of Germany for sixteen years. She is the first woman to lead Europe’s economic powerhouse and the beacon of democracy.

 

Chancellor Merkel wanted to leave in 2016. However, many people, including world leaders, encouraged her to stay. With Donald Trump coming to power in the US, Brexit knocking on the door of the European Union and the smoke of refugee crises still smouldering, almost everyone knew that Merkel was the best in that crucial position. Thus, she re-contested in 2017 and, expectedly, won.

 

But, whatever has a beginning has an end. Germans go to poll tomorrow, Sunday 26, 2021, to elect Merkel’s successor. The electorates are practically voting for parties, not a particular candidate for the chancellery. The parties would, of course, want to have the majority to form a government, but it does not happen. Often if not always, a party will have to negotiate with another party – or even other parties – to have enough votes to appoint a chancellor in the Bundestag. The negotiations can take months.

 

There are three chief contestants from three major political parties. They are 60-year-old Armin Laschet (CDU/CSU), 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock (Greens) and 62-year-old Olaf Scholz (SPD). The first, Mr Laschet, is the current Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia (where Cologne is) and leader of Merkel’s party, CDU.

 

Despite Merkel’s endorsement of Mr Laschet, he is unlikely to win. It may surprise you to know that what may cause him this defeat is mere laughter. Deadly flooding killed people in Germany and some neighbouring countries in July. The President of Germany visited a town destroyed by the catastrophic flood. While the President was delivering a sombre speech, a camera caught Mr Laschet laughing behind him. Since that faux pas, many people have lost confidence in him.

 

Ms Baerbock is young, energetic and confident and started her campaign with a lot of optimism. Nonetheless, her party does not have enough clout to win nationally. But, that is not the real issue for their candidate. You may also find it astonishing to hear what has befallen Baerbock’s candidacy and tarnished her reputation. It was possible plagiarism and padding of her CV.

 

Olaf Scholz is Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Finance. So far, opinion polls favour his chances of succeeding Merkel. Unlike the two other leading contestants, he has almost no major ‘sin’ affecting his campaign. Moreover, his party, SPD, was in power until Merkel’s outstanding victory in 2005. Thus, they are thirsty for a win and are therefore doing everything possible to come back.

 

Frau Merkel will be greatly missed. People around the world will never forget her extraordinary benevolence during the 2015 refugee crisis. As a German resident with no right to vote yet, I wish for the best outcome in the elections. May we continue to live in peace and prosperity, amin.

Muhsin Ibrahim is a Nigerian. He studies and works at the Institute of African Studies and Egyptology of the University of Cologne. He can be reached via muhsin2008@gmail.com.