PDP

By Mallam Musbahu Magayaki

The political calculation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) may likely lead the party to oversight if they fail to set their house to order. There is a rumour that the party is romancing former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. APC reportedly declared that they will allow him to recontest for the presidential race in the 2023 general elections if he joins the party.

Lo and behold! Despite this rumour, one Jonathan supporter joined the party after spending many years criticising the party on social media fiercely. Thus, Jonathan’s supporters are defecting to the APC. Will this signal his presidential ambition?

Let’s assume the presidential ticket goes to the south-south; what is the fate of the Southwest that has been promised the presidential ticket in a zoning agreement? Even though the zoning policy is not democratically based on the constitution in the country that is practising democracy.

Meanwhile, a candidate for president and his running mate from the same region sounds too odd. That is, you can not pick a president from the southeast and a vice president from the southwest. In addition, the recent party local government congress elections hindered the party, leading to factions in some states. However, this may cause the party to lose its members if decisive actions are not taken promptly while confronting the party’s national convention elections.

Any political party that gives a glimpse into the Party’s instability will eventually experience its entire tendency to fail. A few weeks ago, in the opposition PDP, the leading crisis crumbled. Many political analysts argued that the party lost its spirit as a real opposition party since there would be no political party prospering in the conflicts.

Nevertheless, when the ticket goes to the South-south, the Southwest may not vote for the party because the national leader of the party’s presidential ambitions would not realise his ambition. As a result, even though he has not declared his interest in the race yet, the APC may lose Lagos, Kano, and many other northern states.

Mallam Musbahu Magayaki writes from Sabon Fegi, Azare. He can be reached via musbahumuhammad258@gmail.com.

By Muhammad Abdurrahman

Professor Umar Farouk of the Department of Mass Communication, Bayero University, Kano and a former Kano State Commissioner of Information during the second tenure of Dr Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso spoke with The Daily Reality on the possibility of Malam Ibrahim Shekarau’s return to the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the possible emergence of the Third Force before 2023 elections.

Prof. Farouk said that “Mal. Ibrahim Shekarau’s decamping to APC didn’t help him. They don’t respect him. Someone as eloquent as Shekarau is now missing in the headline tells you there is a problem in APC. His silence tells you he is not happy with the manner he is treated. He is just waiting for an opportunity to break his silence.”

“When he was at PDP, Dr Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso visited him, sought for his support and made him many promises when they form a government. But Shekarau thought differently and decamped to APC. Even though people see him as our arch-rival, look at how Kwankwasiyya supporters received him at the airport without any hard feelings. Look at how they escorted him to his car, and also those at Nassarawa Local Government look at their pictures with him. This is the discipline instilled in them by our “Jagora” [Kwankwaso].”

A similar incident brought Senator Kwankwaso and the Minister of Communication, Dr Isa Aliyu Pantami, at the same Malam Aminu Kano Airport in 2019. At that time, some Kwankwasiyya supporters shouted at the latter, a few others attempted to wrestle him. Recalling this regrettable incident, Prof. Farouk responded, “Dr Isa Pantami was only unlucky because of the political climate at that time. And that brawl was mainly premeditated by a lot of issues.”

Since 2003, supporters of Kwankwaso and Shekarau dominated political programmes on Kano radio stations with talks and counter talks on the two political giants. But it seems that is no longer the case.

Prof. Farouk argued, “To the best of my knowledge, it is infrequent now, that is if even it happens to see a bona fide Kwankwasiya supporter criticising Shekarau on both social media and conventional media. Considering how the leadership of APC in Kano and at the national level treats him, we sympathise with him. A Kano State governor for eight years; a former minister and presently a senator of Kano Central, but his party, APC, doesn’t see his worthiness.  He is not contacted about the party’s activities in most cases as he was not considered in the previous local government elections.”

“There is a possibility that both Shekarau and Kwankwaso will forget their differences and form a formidable alliance to bring the change people have been aspiring for because we all tested the bitterness of APC’s administration. Shekarau was from PDP, and certainly, he will return. We, the Kwankwasiyya bloc, have an existing structure that is waiting for him. It is not a shame if he comes back to his home, PDP. His return will certainly boost the strength of PDP,” said Prof. Farouk.

The Third Force is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria’s politics, especially when there are crises in the ruling party and things are not faring well. Both politicians and the governed look for an alternative. Prof. Farouk added, “Though it is a bit late, Third Force is inevitable considering the political unrests in the country. Both APC and PDP have internal crises with many cases in the court about the leadership structure and other issues.”

“There would be a lot of movements to and from both parties depending on where the wind blows. Therefore, governors, senators, and state and federal representatives need to be the third force to cause any change. Without these people, it is a futile exercise to talk about the third force. This is the reason why, often, some people stay in the ruling party because it has the resources to win elections, legitimately or otherwise.”

“But naturally, there must be an opposition. Those members who stay and nurse their ambition to fruition will win. This is what President Muhammadu Buhari did for many years, and in the end, APC won. So you must be patient,” Prof. concluded.

By AF Sesay

When we talk of politicians, we mostly regard them as aliens or spirits from the evil forest. We often see them as people who came with their own set of beliefs, attitudes, approaches to life and different perspectives on divine justice and the torture of Hell. We talk of erstwhile compassionate friends who entered politics and suddenly became monsters. We speak about them like we do of cold, callous aliens whose race is bent on inflicting the greatest damage possible on the human race. But wait…who are these politicians?

Let’s keep the answer in the brain and move on to something urgent: the design of governance experience. Do we really see this as something we should do better? Should leaders and followers look at governance from the lens of user experience design? I think they should!

If every product, starting with the Constitution to the Curriculum, was designed with the people who this will affect in mind, I am pretty sure the outcomes will be different. Hardly anybody will look at the current Constitution and Curriculum and say: “Yes, these were designed with empathy, love and responsiveness to the needs of the citizens”.

If the guy who presses the button at NEPA or, more recently, NEDCO/KEDCO have the empathy to think that with every touch of the red buttons somebody is going out of business, a baby is dying in the hospital; an investor is packing his bag to leave Nigeria for good, a boy is missing vital lessons because he can no longer cope with doing his assignment in the dark, a family is exposing their lives to carbon monoxide generated by Generators. If he ever approaches his work as a user experience designer…

If the northerner or southerner stealing from the public treasury realises that with every kobo stolen a citizen dies, this corruption-induced death is agnostic of region, religion or tribe. Suppose every Contractor realised that every badly-designed road is a graveyard for his fellow citizens.

If every Nigerian who had the opportunity to lead ten people or more or even less realised that these micro leadership tasks are a microcosm of the overall leadership output of the nation. Suppose every employer knew that every right violated is the beginning of bad governance. Then, you would have seen around you thoughtful and resourceful leaders who would eventually emerge as national leaders.

If every young person on Twitter knew that every tweet could potentially destroy a life, even if it looks like catching a cruise. Suppose every journalist knew that every fake report opens bigger wounds and increases the pain point of his readers. Then, you would have had cause to verify less news and have less regrets for sharing harmful and divisive contents.

When we start seeing this problem as a design problem and not just problems caused by some aliens or foreign species, then we will be mentally ready to ask the right questions.

While scratching at the surface for the past 60 years has given some temporary relief, ousted leaders we hate, brought our tribesmen to power and opened doors to stupendous wealth, the truth is that the problems have compounded.

At the mention of Nigeria, everybody becomes an expert. But most of this expertise only hit the surface, compounding the problem with false claims, unverified and alternative truths, faulty assumptions, stereotypes, bigotry, and received “wisdom”.

We have got to wake up and smell the coffee. There is a design problem out here. Until we are heavy on researching root causes and being genuinely interested in knowing all the whys of the problem, until we see ourselves beyond the just-a-citizen mindset to the mindset of restless inventors, these problems are only growing bigger and more complex regardless of who is at the top.

We have got to build a culture of research and replace that with assumptions and stereotypes. Research could actually confirm some of our beliefs, by the way. But, until we see the products of today as collective input of everybody who played a role, no matter how little, until the people in power (from Local Government to Federal Government)  create a mechanism to capture feedback and seek continual improvement regularly, we will still have to come to these basics many years later.

Go to the archives and read headlines of the ’70s and ’80s and compare them to today’s headlines; you will observe a pattern that will shock you. In short, the design process is faulty, but we are finding it difficult to rethink the process, because thinking itself is going to require an effort that we are not yet ready to put in!

AF Sesay is a writer based in Lagos. He can be reached via amarasesay.amir@gmail.com.

By Mohammed Zayyad

Mallam Nasir El-Rufai is one of the best performing governors in Nigeria. So far, he is the best Governor of Kaduna State in recent times. However, Mallam lost his polling unit and ward in the local government elections conducted by the Kaduna State Independent Electoral Commission on September 04, 2023.

Governor El-Rufai voted at Unguwan Sarkin polling unit 001 in Kaduna North LGA of the state. Mohammed Sani, the presiding officer, announced the final results: Unguwan Sarki Ward 007 Kaduna North Chairmanship, the People Democratic Party (PDP) scored 1,235 votes while the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) scored 948 votes, while for the councillorship position, PDP garnered 1,405 votes while the APC was behind with only 804 votes.

Unfortunately, though, the election witnessed low voter turnout and challenges in some polling units as the wrong machines were deployed. El-Rufai himself expressed disappointment about the low turnout of voters in the council polls. He said: “What worries me is that I noticed that people didn’t turn out much,” This could be one of the reasons the APC did poorly at Governor El-Rufai’s unit, the party may say.

The big questions are: Why should a performing governor’s party be rejected by the people at the governor’s polling unit? Why should a performing governor lose at his polling unit and ward? Are the people angry with the governor, his party, including his government? Are the people not happy with the way the beautiful Kaduna Urban Renewal is being handled? Is the current insecurity the state is witnessing a significant factor? Is it the issue of the sack of workers? Is the Kaduna state government out in touch with the real ordinary people? So many questions require answers because the result is a big political statement from the people to the governor,  his government and his party.

Some political pundits believe that Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s major error is that his government is not doing well in balancing policies, development, and politics. The pundits further said this is a reminder that development in a poor society must and should always consider the people’s survival first. An example was the former governor of Adamawa state, Muhammadu Umaru Bindow, who did very well in constructing roads, bridges and hospitals. Still, the people denied him and his party the APC a second term because Bindow failed in workers’ salaries and human development.

Nevertheless, El-Rufa’i is still the best governor Kaduna State has had so far. APC may go on to win the majority of the local government councils as the results come it. Still, some pockets of the results have given the opposition more strength to fight more and take advantage of areas the government is lagging. One simple example is how one of the governorship hopefuls, Honourable Ahmad Tijjani Umar, is smartly mobilising the youth and building bridges while taking advantage of the government’s weak areas. It seems it is working well for him and his party to win support from the ordinary people.

Governor  El-Rufa’i should be commended for conducting a free and fair election and using modern technology to advance democracy. Furthermore, the governor’s polling unit and ward results have given the governor some clues and the need for readjustments and adjustments for future politics.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja, zaymohd@yahoo.com.

By Adamu Bello Mai-Bodi

The wedding Fatiha of Yusuf Buhari and the daughter of Sarkin Bichi was held with pomp and pageantry. All roads led to Bichi on Friday, 18 August 2021. As many as 80 aircraft brought guests to kano to witness the first son’s tying the knot to a Bayero descendent princess. To the amazement of many, the guests were dignitaries and politicians of different persuasions from across the country, who, albeit their differences, gathered to bless the occasion while they wine, dine, and exchange banters with each other. 

The sportsmanship they exhibited was awe-inspiring and outlandish for Nigerian politicians. It may be unintentional, but it should be an eye-opener to Nigerians at the bottom of the ladder. It sent a strong message to the youths, especially bootlickers, sycophants and the so-called media warriors who are ever ready to insult, blackmail, curse, condemn, disrespect and assassinate the characters of their bosses’ supposed political enemies at the expense of their self-esteem. There is no point in attacking and counterattacking one another in defence of these pretenders who only follow their aggrandisements without definite ideology whatsoever.

On Friday, the cliche about “no permanent friend or enemy in politics” was in full gear at Bichi Emir’s palace. Buhari, Atiku and Jonathan were present. Many former and serving Ministers, Governors, Senators Representatives and many other shot callers bundled themselves in Bichi palace with no regard to PDP, APC, South, North or East etc. Everyone was eventually their brothers’ keepers. Most notable was the unexpected comradeship between the former Aviation Minister Femi Fani Kayode and Malam Isah Pantami, the current Minister of Communication and Digital Economy. Given the hostility shown by the former towards the latter, many people were shocked.

If these old guys can forget their bitter differences and mingle to celebrate and or commiserate with one another depending on the situation, I think the downtrodden, especially youth are in a better position to embrace the culture of tolerance and to desist from being the tool for political attacks between these dissemblers who would be at each other’s throats only when their whims and caprices differ and would befriend themselves when their path crosses.

Hopefully, many discerning minds would heed this event and free themselves from unnecessary hatred, criticism, and resentment. Let love, mutual respect and fair play lead the way in all endeavours regardless of affiliations, be it political, regional or religious. “Experience,” they say, “is the best teacher”. May we be guided.

Adamu Bello Mai-Bodi writes from Gidado Bombiyo residence, K/kaji Azare.

By Bilyaminu Abdulmumin

Perspective is what makes any matter arising be two way. Hiding behind this aegis, everyone will prefer to go with the view that suits them. This is similar to what I learned from a Nigerian saying, mind the message, not the messenger. Those who the message favours would go with it; otherwise, they would instead focus on the messenger.

Similar to this phenomenon in court proceedings is the aspects of either substance to the case or technicalities. So, all evidence would be presented in a case; you will think that’s the end for the accused, only for him to turn around and rely on technicalities. 

Before the historic 2015 general election, the then ruling party, PDP, sought to cling to General Muhammadu Buhari’s WAEC certificate. The attempt was to take on the person of Buhari instead of what he stood for, but it failed. I doubt he had written the exam, but he possibly rode on the back of official consent to progress. So the allegations could be valid, just like the claims he stood for. It depends on what favours who.

However, the Tsunami of change at the time was too strong to allow taking on the Buhari’s past. This is the kind of force required to douse the rising dust against Dr Ali Isa Pantami, the Communication and Digital Economy minister.

There are emerging signs of commitments from the Minister Pantami to revamp the sector. It is easy to understand how this will go a long way to better the nation’s insecurity.

The abuse of SIM cards in Nigeria has been very rampant, lamented by many. Bandits increasingly go on rampage, kidnapping and negotiating for ransoms undetected. Getting the SIM in Nigeria is as easy as anything effortless. Therefore, heinous activities by the underworld men continue in perpetuity. So the Minister wants to bring sanity to the ministry.

For auditing purposes, a directive was issued to halt the sale, activation, and registration of new SIM cards on December 9, 2020. Without reference to any conspiracy theories, those who are not happy with the development instead chose to descend on the Minister’s previous affiliations and sympathies. The views that the Minister reportedly renounced.

In a desperate attempt to propagate this interest, to say the least, one news media ended up undoing itself by displaying timid journalism prowess in its inability to differentiate truth from myth. 

This media published the famous video of fierce debate between Dr Pantami and Muhammad Yusuf, using it as evidence for the latter’s terrorism tendency. If there is any evidence that could absolve Pantami from what they claim, it is that debate, not what the Pantami distractors want us to understand. However, we can still learn a lesson from the development.

Dr Pantami, a rare gem in the north, an authority on both Islamic and secular education, would display the human sign (weakness) by renouncing the views he held earlier in his life. It is an excellent reason to keep on any idea between iron fist and kid-glove; it is religiously and politically wise. A similar issue is currently hunting Governor Nasir El-Rufa’i.

A video recently shared by 21st-century chronicles El-Rufa’i taking full advantage of insecurity during the Jonathan administration to score points for himself and his party.  El-Rufa’i criticised everything about insecurity in the video that he is not doing today. No regard to the reasons he gave as to why he has changed his decision.

The current standoff between Pantami and his distractors is an attempt to look beyond the effort being made in the country’s communication sector. But as for those calling for secured Nigeria, let the audit for SIM subscribers and vision for the country’s database (linking the NIM and upcoming BVN) continues.

Bilyamin Abdulmumin is a Chemical engineering PhD student at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. He can be reached via bilal4riid13@gmail.com.

By Salisu Uba Kofar Wambai

One of the basic tenets of democratic principles is building political parties on sound ideological ground. Ideology is an orientation that characterised the thinking of a group or nation. Thus, the people of the same thoughts on running public affairs come together to establish a party, preaching the gospel of a particular ideology to ascertain its primary objective in government or public sphere if they’re voted through an electoral process.

However, the missteps and embarrassing blunder committed by the Nigerian politicians in the party formation in 1998-1999 democratic process was enormous, and the country is paying the huge price now. The politicians then were overwhelmed with the military government’s commitment to hand over power to the civilians. Unfortunately, they hurriedly built the parties; thereby, the ideological consideration of the politicians was grossly undermined. The parties were just a kind of machine to let the military go.

The people democratic party (PDP) encompassed and encapsulated politicians of different ideologies by looking at their political background, which is the machine that shapes and moulds their thoughts and ideological thinking style. How can one explain forming a party with unrepentant progressives like Abubakar Rimi, Solomon Lar and topnotch conservatives like Lawal Kaita and Alex Ekueme in the same party! They had different ideological backgrounds by all calculations. They were purely strange bedfellows.

The other two most notable parties then were APP and AD. APP were just people who lost grips of power with the death of General Sani Abacha with revivalism agenda, and AD was nothing more than ethnic and regional irredentists. Therefore, the parties were all ideological-free. Their main aim was only to let the military go and let the civilians take over.

The PDP experienced intense intraparty wrangling and turmoil because the party’s bigwigs were not ideologically the same. And this led to much chaos and internal divides among them, which led to a new crop of politicians as governors hijacking the party and get rid of them politically with the backup of the presidency. It was the beginning of governor-turn-emperor as we see it today.

Retrospectively, in the First and Second Republics, the politicians had based-ideology. For example, it was NEPU that produced Malam Aminu Kano, who had been a minister and yet died with only 112 Naira in his bank account because the ideology of his party was to emancipate the masses from the subjugation of elites and traditional oligarchs who formed their NPC as a party with their aim of maintaining the status quo. And in the Second Republic still, the parties were ideological because PRP was an offshoot of NEPU, and NPN was NPC. That’s why the politics then was not much of the money-bags type. The political parties’ members were committed to bringing change according to their ideological bearings.

The politics of ideology produced the likes of former governor Balarabe Musa, who died with only his old tractor as a farmer. It produced people like Abubakar Rimi, who had to secure a bank loan as a governor before he built his house and left the government house with only 50 thousand Naira in his possession. It produced Aminu Kano, who had not even had a paltry freezer in his room, rather a traditional (randa) muddy-pot.

We had equally seen the lifestyle of Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa and the late Northern Premier Sir Ahmadu Bello Sardauna. It was all politics of ideology that made them. They all left this world owning only a local house in their towns when they could accumulate a lot had wished so.

Today’s ideology of our politicians is nothing more than gripping onto power, begin to run the governments like their personal companies, enrich themselves at the expense of the masses, building mansions, accumulating senseless wealth through looting and embezzlement, creating laws that only serve their interest, flaunting their newfound wealth and leaving their subjects dying in poverty and diseases.

Nevertheless, you can hardly find a politician who represents his people in the National Assembly, not a billionaire or close to billionaire status today. You can only see the effects of all these borrowings with them, leaving the electorate with no security and with nothing called social amenities.

It is up to our youth to form or join the ideological political trains, form parties of explicit ideologies, and bring positive changes if they want their names to be written with gold and remembered as heroes like Aminu Kano.

Salisu Uba Kofar Wambai writes from Kano State and can be reached via salisunews@gmail.com.

By Sumayyah Auwal Usman

The former senator representing Kaduna Central Senatorial District, Senator Shehu Sani and his supporters are considering defecting to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), The Daily Reality has learnt.

Following his recent resignation from the People’s Redemption Party (PRP), Senator Sani and his supporters have been conducting a series of meetings on the issue and that they would soon come up with a stand. Recently, the former lawmaker hosted the 23 PDP local government party chairmen amid PDP defection rumours. Penultimate weeks ago, Senator Sani also visited some PDP bigwigs in the state, including former governors Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi, Alhaji Mukhtar Ramalan Yero, and former gubernatorial aspirant, Isah Ashiru Kudan. 

No details were revealed about deliberations between Sani and the party chairmen and his visits to PDP stakeholders in the state. Still, sources have confirmed to The Daily Reality that the move was part of Sani’s swift consultation of power brokers in the PDP towards having a soft landing on a likely defection to the party. 
It will be recalled Senator Sani joined the PRP in October 2018 after he failed to win the primary elections of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2019 Kaduna central senatorial seat. He served on the platform of the APC but was critical of President Muhammadu Buhari and Governor El-Rufai’s governments from 2015-2019.

 As we move closer to 2023, when power may be shifted to the South, social and political events point to a bleak future for the North. The North/South relationship is at its lowest level; tension is growing by the day, the body polity is being heated, and behind the scene, enemies of the country are planting the seeds of animosity. 

A bad omen is set for a bleak 2023 early this month when the Southern governors met in Lagos. Their communique strongly called for a power shift to the South come 2023. The governors had forgotten that leadership rotation was the brainchild of the North, that it was a political concession meant to heal old wounds following the June 12 political turmoil. They also forgot that when President Umar Musa died two years into his first term, the same South flouted the power shift arrangement. Former President Jonathan openly said this section of the country hated him because they said the power shift arrangement be honoured. 

Two recent social unrests define the Noth/South relationship and the political tension that’s setting. First was a disagreement between a Northerner, tomato seller and a Yoruba woman that degenerated into killings and displacement of mostly Northerners in Ibadan. Then came the IPOB’s sit-at-home order in the South East, where ethnic persecution of the Northerners ensued. Many were killed and hundreds displaced.

Recently, there seems to be a collective animosity towards the North and whatever the North represents. The problem with many Nigerians is that they can’t differentiate between elitism, elitist tendencies and the massive social gaps between the two classes. Historically, these same elites from either side of the divide have been known to exert elitist solidarity in perpetuating their own interests, in the process, alienating the masses. 

Most of these Southern grievances emanate from skewed political appointments by President Buhari. They forget that Buhari’s government is the reincarnation of Jonathan’s. Once, Air Marshall Alex Badeh, Major General Minimah, Air Vice Marshall Amosu were chiefs of defence, army staff and air staff, respectively. Only Admiral Jibrin was from another faith. Moreover, the President, Secretary to the Government, Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Minister of Finance were from the same faith. The same with the ‘Kitchen Cabinets.’ Remember the powerful economic team? Hausas say ‘idan ɗan maye ya manta…’

Granted that President Buhari’s government suffers from poor public relations from the President himself to his public relations team. So also was Jonathan. Towards the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, shortly before the general elections, Jonathan and his wife, Patience, went to churches in Abuja and South East preaching the gospel of hatred. I am not condoning nor defending the present arrangement, far from that; I am reminding us about the past lest we forget. 

The recent Afenifere political blunder is a clear pointer that Southerners would politically persecute the Northerners when power is shifted to the South. Afenifere strikes intentionally and timely to cause disaffection. Like Chalie Hebdo, they know that to Muslims, Prophet Muhammad (SAW) is the centre of gravity; he’s the Prophet, the Divine link, the undisputed spiritual leader, the guide, the intercessor, the light, the mercy and blessing to humanity. To the Muslims, Prophet Muhammad (SAW) is the best that could happen to the world. Yet, they intentionally came out to hurt feelings and cause disaffection.

They claimed to be liberals, but where’s the so-called liberalism when you lack empathy? Where’s the so-called freedom of expression when it overlooks inclusion ànd pluralism? Where’s the so-called free press when it can’t draw a line between the intellectual identification of feelings, sensitivity, thoughts of a people on the one hand, and on the other hand, the subjective urge to exhibit petty tribal solidarity?  

What Afenifere does is self-immolation. This is because there’s no ethnic group in Nigeria that’s socio-culturally cohesive, an ethnic group that’s equally infiltrated by the two major religions like Yoruba. Religious consciousness is new to them. Now the Yoruba Muslims would undoubtedly realise that Afenifere doesn’t represent them. Thus, setting an unprecedented social trajectory of an ethnic group stratified along religious faultline. It would be the worst-case scenario, for this would divide families, friends, and social groups along religious lines as is found in the North, the root cause of social unrest.

The North may have a majority in the service chiefs and defence, yet they can’t secure the North from the clutch of marauding bandits. We have the minister of finance who can’t lessen the Noth’s skydiving poverty! 

As 2023 draws closer, it seems, whoever is selected to be president from the South, there may be the tendency of political persecution of the North, and the basis of this would be justified on the failure of the current leadership to stabilize the region. When finally we demand attention, they would respond that our kin couldn’t give us what we demand from them. For now, the sociopolitical trajectories portend a bleak future. But for now, only time will tell.

Salisu Yusuf can be reached at salisuyusuf111@gmail.com.

By Abu Haneef 

It is true that the North and South have rotated the presidency from the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999 until Jonathan truncated it in 2011 after the demise of Umaru Musa Yar’adua. Many have argued that it was practically challenging to stop an acting president from contesting just because of an unconstitutional gentleman agreement, which was put in place by not-so-gentle politicians to rotate the presidency between the North and the South. Although not a valid justification to scrap that agreement, the argument is not entirely incorrect; who could have stopped Jonathan if he wasn’t patriotic enough to put the country ahead of himself? No one.

All that is now history. But what isn’t history is how all the proponents of the rotational presidency during Jonathan are now speaking against rotation; in the very same manner, those that argued against the rotational presidency during Jonathan are now suddenly making a case for rotation. The way both sides exchanged arguments with the change of personalities proves that those arguments were never in favour of the reasons given in the first place. 

While there are some good arguments for and against the rotational presidency in Nigeria, there will never be a good argument for scrapping it when that benefits you, only to turn around and demand rotation when it does not. This double double-standard is against fair play. 

Now let us analyse the case. While the argument for the rotational presidency is valid on the grounds of national security and stability, there are many things wrong about how we are understanding and approaching the rotation—from its premises to our assumptions thereof and many things in between. 

Anyone who understands Nigeria’s politics knows that religion, rather than ethnogeography, is the biggest faultline, albeit with a bit of ethnogeographic connotations here and there. This explains why since 1999, almost all Northern Christians voted for Southern Christians (except where both contenders were Muslims, and even then, they preferred PDP simply for being “more Christian”), despite sharing the same geopolitical threats and opportunities with the Northern Muslims they rejected. Yet, notwithstanding this apparent reality, we chose to premise our rotation on ethnogeographical consideration rather than religion (I’m not making a case for religion here, I’m only analysing our presidential rotation). 

Now let us ask ourselves, what happens if we rotate the presidency to the South and a Muslim, backed by Northern voters, emerges as the president? He would have been a Southern president who would not give the South a sense of belonging. The same will have been the case if a Northern Christian emerges as president. So our current premise for rotation is faulty, and those responsible for it know this; they are only ashamed to premise our rotational presidency on religion because of the global stigma religion faces today. 

Another critical question we haven’t convincingly answered in Nigeria is population spread across Nigeria’s ethnogeographical constituents and religions. Doing this would have removed the heat generated on the polity by the many unrealistic demands currently put forward by all sections of the country. However, we have so many issues to solve, and the best way to start is to answer all the critical demographical questions we haven’t. Only then will every section understand its proper place in the scheme of things, as there are currently huge delusions by many country sections. 

Another problem with this rotation is our constitution, which does not recognise it. This is problematic because people at the opposite faultline can only surrender power based on trust. There is no guarantee that the other region will yield power according to agreed terms. We had seen that in 2011 when Jonathan contested against PDP’s zoning arrangement. Therefore, the question of constitutionality in rotating the presidency must be answered to address the current distrust in the polity. 

Another valid question to answer on presidential rotation is that of fairness, particularly with the way and manner we have seen many agitations for resource control, which led to the creation of 13% Derivation, Ministry of Niger Delta and Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC). Suppose we agree that they deserve more resources only because God planted those resources in their land. In that case, the North can also argue that they deserve to retain political power because the same God that chose to bless Niger Delta with hydrocarbon decided to bless the North with a larger population. Suppose it is fair for Niger Delta to demand resource control. In that case, it is certainly reasonable for the North to require strict adherence to the democratic principle of majority retaining power at all times. That is one consistency of truth we must not skip in our national discourse. 

Conclusively, I submit that the only thing correct about the rotational presidency we argue for or against is the idea of having or not having it, but everything else has either been misunderstood, refused to be understood or deliberately misrepresented. And in these tiny details and questions we repeatedly miss lies most of the solutions we seek elsewhere. 

Abu Haneef can be reached via imabuhaneef@gmail.com.