The growth Nigerians can’t taste: Behind the numbers lies hardship
By Nasiru Ibrahim
If the economy grows by 4% in Q1 2025, people expect to feel it through affordable food, reasonable wages, more job opportunities, an improvement in the standard of living, and quality education. I agreed with Dr. Usman Isyaku’s recent claim that “Economics is the new rocket science in Nigeria,” because economists are busy presenting abstract models, charts, graphs, GDP growth, and the economic policy debate is centred only on economic jargon and indicators that appear technical and confusing to the layman. The economic policy debate is supposed to be centred on what people earn, what they buy, how the cost of living rises, and what happens to inequality and poverty.
People often ask: if the economy is growing, why is our life getting harder? The answer to all this is the Nigerian economy’s economic growth and inflation paradox, which refers to the presence of economic growth and high inflation at the expense of people’s purchasing power and standard of living. Inflation erodes people’s purchasing power and repeatedly makes them poorer as prices rise.
The economic growth and inflation paradox is the reality of the Nigerian economy, considering that the economy experienced its fastest growth in about a decade in 2024, as pointed out by the World Bank’s lead economist for Nigeria, Sir Alex Sienant, yesterday in Abuja. He said the Nigerian economy grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q4 2024. This means that in the last three months of 2024, the Nigerian economy produced 4.6% more goods and services than in the same period in 2023. However, even though the country produces more, many people don’t feel any benefit because prices are still rising, and daily life is becoming harder.
Growth figures like GDP are averages and do not address poverty, high inequality, a poor standard of living, or food affordability.
What caused this paradox? President Tinubu’s economic reforms — removing fuel subsidies, electricity subsidies, and naira devaluation cuts —resulted in fiscal improvement. Government revenue grew by 4.5% of GDP in 2024, the fiscal deficit decreased, and external debt declined. On paper, these achievements are impressive, but they feel different to the common man on the street, as the prices of food, transport, and rent continue to rise.
The immediate cause is the lack of inclusive growth, with a few sectors like oil and banking dominating the GDP. Secondly, weak institutions refer to government agencies and public bodies that are supposed to ensure fairness, transparency, and accountability but fail to do so. When institutions are weak, they allow corruption, inefficiency, and poor management of public funds. This means money meant for roads, healthcare, education, or farming support gets wasted or stolen, and policies that should help everyone only benefit a few elites. This worsens inequality and keeps essential services underdeveloped.
Thirdly, agriculture and supply chain disruptions caused inefficiency in the sector. Insecurity and poor infrastructure, plus the issue of import waivers, contributed to cheap food imports, making it hard for local farmers to compete and causing them to incur losses.
I do not view economics as rocket science dominated by charts, models, and jargon. I see economics in everyday life—prices, wages, job opportunities, choices, affordable food for all, happiness, and a better life for all and sundry.
Economists should explain how policies affect people’s daily lives — not just in GDP numbers, but in real terms like food prices, wages, and employment opportunities. Economists need to engage with the public more directly, explaining key concepts like inflation or interest rates in simple terms. In 2022, the Nigerian government reported economic growth in the oil sector. Yet, unemployment was at a 20% high, and poverty was increasing, with more than 40% of Nigerians living below the poverty line.
Economists and policymakers often discuss GDP growth, real income, or inflation rates—terms that many Nigerians don’t fully understand. Most people are focused on practical issues like food prices, rent, and transportation costs, not abstract economic concepts.
Governments often use economic data to justify their policies, sometimes highlighting growth figures that don’t fully reflect the real situation. In Nigeria, governments usually focus on growth rates in sectors like oil and telecoms, which don’t directly impact most people’s daily lives, while ignoring issues like rising poverty and growing inequality.
What Should Be Done?
Firstly, fuel subsidy reform must be done to protect ordinary Nigerians. The sudden removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 made life harder—transport became expensive, food prices shot up, and suffering increased. Even big economies like the U.S. still subsidise farmers, energy, and housing. But in Nigeria, our subsidy system was full of corruption and waste. Instead of removing it overnight, the government should have planned a gradual withdrawal and used the savings to support school feeding, health insurance, and public transport. State governors, like those in Lagos and Borno, should use their share of subsidy savings to support poor families. Local government chairmen can help by identifying struggling households and ensuring the help gets to them.
Secondly, we must secure our farms and support agriculture to fight food inflation. Insecurity in places like Benue, Zamfara, and Niger has chased farmers off their land. No farming means no food, and no food means higher prices. The government should send security teams to protect farmers and work with local vigilantes. State governors must invest in irrigation, storage facilities, and feeder roads, like Ebonyi’s rice project or Cross River’s cocoa plan. Local governments should help distribute seeds and fertilisers, and organise markets in villages so that food can move easily and become cheaper.
Thirdly, Nigeria must stop mismanaging foreign exchange and support local production. The constant rise and fall of the naira, unfair access to cheap dollars, and heavy import dependence have worsened things. The CBN must be open and fair in its forex policy and prioritise local manufacturers. State governments should build industrial hubs and support processing industries, as Ogun State is doing. Local governments can help small producers in things like leather, cassava, and shea butter—so we can reduce imports, create jobs, and lower prices.
Fourthly, state governors and LG chairmen must stop blaming the federal government for everything. Many things affecting people—bad roads, dirty water, expensive local markets—are within their power. Governors should form regional plans, invest in infrastructure, and support small businesses. Local governments should fix boreholes, maintain primary health centres, and organise rural markets. These small actions reduce the daily cost of living and improve lives.
Fifthly, we need proper social protection, not random handouts. Inflation is eating deep into people’s pockets. The government should use verified data (linked to NIN and BVN) to send digital cash transfers to the poor. Local governments must identify real households that need support. States should create public works programs—like road maintenance, tree planting, or waste collection—so people earn a living while helping their communities. That’s how India’s rural job scheme helped millions.
Lastly, no reform will work without fighting corruption and fixing our broken institutions. We can’t keep discussing change while money disappears, budgets are padded, and governors pocket LG funds. The government must pass audit laws, publish how money is spent, and punish corruption. State and local governments should meet transparency targets before receiving federal funds. We must also return full independence to local governments so they can serve people directly. Without these changes, even the best economic plans will fail.