Dangote Group

By Usman Abdullahi Koli

Something extraordinary is unfolding on the Nigerian Exchange. A refinery that accumulated nearly two billion dollars in losses during its first two years of commercial operation is now inviting Nigerians to own a piece of the largest single-train industrial complex on the African continent for the price of a modest family grocery run. That is not charity. It is one of the most ambitious attempts to broaden ownership of a strategic Nigerian industrial asset.

Consider what is on the table. Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE is offering 4.1 billion ordinary shares at ₦525 each, with a minimum subscription of ten shares, or ₦5,250. If fully subscribed, the offer raises about ₦2.15 trillion, or $1.63 billion. The company is targeting up to ten million retail investors. Aliko Dangote, who currently controls 87.27 per cent of the company, would retain about 84.34 per cent after a fully subscribed offer. This is not simply a founder cashing out. The refinery is issuing new shares, with proceeds earmarked for growth capital, including the first tranche of a $14.27 billion programme to double refining capacity from 700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million by 2029.

The financial turnaround behind the offer is striking. The refinery lost about $1.51 billion in 2024 and another $475.8 million in 2025. In the first half of 2026, however, it reported profit after tax of $1.82 billion on revenue of $13.91 billion. Utilisation rose to an average of 83.6 per cent, reaching 700,000 barrels per day in June. Gross refining margins also rose sharply. This is a genuine operational turnaround, not something that should be dismissed simply because the company is now seeking public money. The refinery is also creating strategic value beyond its balance sheet. It is processing Nigerian crude that was previously exported while Nigeria imported refined products at a premium. It has exported jet fuel to international markets and now supplies more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s domestic petrol demand. Its emergence has altered the country’s position in the regional fuel market and given Nigeria an industrial asset with global relevance.

But the arithmetic demands clear eyes. At ₦525 per share, the offer implies a valuation of roughly ₦65.22 trillion, or about $47.8 billion at the prospectus exchange rate. Some analysts have argued that the valuation is difficult to defend against global refining peers, with one analysis placing fair value considerably below the offer price. That does not make the IPO a bad investment. It means investors are being asked to pay for substantial future performance, not merely today’s earnings. The private placement immediately before the public offer deserves similar scrutiny. Between late June and late July 2026, the refinery sold about three billion ordinary shares to institutional investors at $0.35 per share, raising $2.5 billion. The placement was reportedly oversubscribed. The public offer price was roughly $0.40 per share. There can be legitimate reasons for differences between private and public pricing, including market access, structure and timing. Still, the gap is material enough for a retail investor to ask why institutions with greater negotiating power and access to due diligence paid less.

Debt adds another layer. Total indebtedness stood at $5.67 billion as of June 30, 2026, although net debt to EBITDA was a relatively modest 0.27 times. More important is the expansion bill. The IPO covers only a fraction of the $14.27 billion required to double capacity. The balance will have to come from internal cash flows, debt and potentially additional equity. For an investor buying today, future capital raises therefore matter because they could dilute existing holdings. Taxation is another under-discussed risk. The refinery currently benefits from its free-zone status, although its effective tax rate in the first half was 13.6 per cent. The prospectus indicates that domestic-market profits may become fully taxable from January 2028. If the business moves towards a higher blended tax burden, earnings could fall, and the already demanding valuation would become harder to justify.

Another question is whether the exceptional refining environment of 2026 can last. Geopolitical conflicts have disrupted refining capacity and lifted margins, creating unusually favourable conditions for producers with available capacity. The refinery itself acknowledges that some of its recent performance has benefited from these market disruptions. Investors should therefore distinguish between current profitability and sustainable profitability. A business can be excellent while its current earnings are temporarily exceptional. Yet the most consequential feature of this transaction may not be its valuation. It is its potential effect on the Nigerian capital market. Nigeria now has a much larger population of digitally connected retail investors, and the Dangote offer is deliberately designed to reach them through banks, fintech platforms, mobile money operators and other approved channels. The minimum entry point of ₦5,250 makes ownership accessible to people who could never contemplate buying into a strategic industrial asset through a conventional private placement. The offer opens on September 14 and closes on October 13, with listing expected later in the year.

If it succeeds, the implications could extend far beyond Dangote. It would demonstrate that Nigerian capital markets can mobilise substantial domestic savings for industrial expansion while giving ordinary citizens a stake in productive assets. Other African industrialists would notice. A successful transaction could encourage more companies to consider public ownership rather than keeping strategic assets concentrated among a few investors. But public participation must not be confused with informed investment. The communication around the offer has been powerful, but storytelling is not the same as financial education. The official IPO platform itself warns investors that shares can fall as well as rise and urges them to read the prospectus and seek professional advice where necessary. That warning matters because a ₦5,250 minimum does not make the underlying investment risk-free.

The Saudi Aramco IPO offers a useful comparison. Saudi Arabia successfully mobilised millions of retail investors when it listed a portion of its national oil company in 2019. But the comparison has limits. Aramco entered the market with a long-established earnings record and extraordinary profitability. Dangote Refinery’s transformation is impressive, but its current profitability has a much shorter history. Investors should therefore admire the industrial achievement without allowing admiration to substitute for valuation analysis. It also offers a broader lesson for corporate communication. Every campaign for a transaction of this magnitude should explain not only what investors might gain but what they could lose. The prospectus contains the losses, debt, tax changes, expansion requirements and other risks. The challenge is ensuring that the millions of people being targeted actually understand them. A 25-year-old fintech user in Lagos and a 60-year-old retiree in Kaduna do not necessarily need the same message or the same educational channel.

None of this diminishes the offer’s significance. Dangote deserves credit for attempting to place public ownership at the centre of an African industrial story of this scale. Nigeria has spent decades watching natural resources generate wealth without creating enough broad-based ownership of productive assets. Giving citizens an opportunity to own part of the infrastructure processing the country’s crude is economically meaningful and potentially transformative. But participation is not the same as investment. The person who buys ten shares with money he cannot afford to lose is not making a sound investment simply because the entry price is low. The young professional who borrows to subscribe because he expects the shares to double immediately after listing is not investing on analysis. He is speculating on a narrative.

Another question deserves attention: what happens if the offer is not fully subscribed? The answer should not be treated as a referendum on Dangote’s industrial achievement. Retail investors may simply conclude that the price is too high or that the risks are not adequately compensated. A partial subscription could alter the pace or financing mix of the expansion, but it could also demonstrate something healthy about the market: investors are capable of saying no when the numbers do not convince them. A capital market should reward good businesses without suspending price discipline. Dangote has also spoken about eventually listing the refinery in the United States after expansion. If that happens, the Nigerian retail investor could ultimately own a stake in a company with much wider international visibility. That possibility adds to the long-term attraction, but it should remain a future prospect rather than part of today’s investment case. Investors should buy the business that exists and the prospects reasonably supported by evidence, not a future valuation that may or may not materialise.

The real significance of this IPO is therefore bigger than whether Dangote’s share price rises after listing. It tests whether Nigerians can move from being consumers of large industrial businesses to becoming owners of them. That transition requires more than access. It requires confidence in institutions, credible disclosure, investor education and a market willing to reward both ambition and prudence. If those conditions hold, the Dangote offer could become a landmark in Nigeria’s financial history. If they do not, the country will learn an equally important lesson about the difference between popular participation and responsible ownership. Nigeria needs disciplined participation now. The Securities and Exchange Commission must supervise the market after approval, enforce disclosure rules and guard against manipulation. The Nigerian Exchange must ensure that retail investors receive timely information. The government should resist turning the offer into a political slogan. And investors themselves must accept the responsibility that comes with ownership: read the prospectus, understand the business, assess the price and invest only what they can afford to leave exposed to market risk.

The subscription window opens on September 14 and closes on October 13. Millions of Nigerians will decide whether to buy a stake in one of the country’s most consequential industrial projects. They deserve more than a sales pitch. They deserve to know what they are buying, what they are risking and what assumptions must hold for the investment to work. Dangote has built something extraordinary and has opened the door for Nigerians to own a piece of it. That deserves recognition. But the ₦5,250 question is not simply whether Nigerians can afford to enter. It is whether, at ₦525 a share, the opportunity is worth the risk. That is the question every serious investor should answer before pressing the subscribe button.

Usman Abdullahi Koli wrote via mernoukoli@gmail.com. 

By Zayyad I. Muhammad 

Petrol and electricity are the oxygen of any nation. Once these two crucial resources are restricted, the country struggles to breathe. Many Nigerians were surprised to learn that Nigeria’s petroleum importation from Malta surged significantly to $2.8 billion in 2023, up from zero importation between 2017 and 2022. 

On the other hand, the majority of Nigerians were unhappy with the news that the $19 billion Dangote Refinery is struggling due to a poor supply of crude oil and other hindrances from government agencies that are supposed to support such a national asset.

For most Nigerians, Dangote Refinery represents hope and the expectation of lower petroleum prices. Regardless of people’s opinions about Dangote, he has accomplished what Nigeria has failed to achieve in decades. In fact, in the last ten years, only six countries in the world have managed to build new massive petroleum refineries, including the Dangote Refinery. 

Other countries that have built refineries include China, which has added multiple new refineries like the 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) Yulong Petrochemical Plant and the 300,000 b/d Shenghong Refinery; Kuwait’s Al-Zour refinery with a capacity of 615,000 b/d, which started operations in 2021; Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery with a capacity of 400,000 b/d, also operational since 2021; and Oman’s Duqm Refinery, with a capacity of 230,000 b/d, which commenced operations in 2022. Additionally, India has expanded its refining capacity with new units at the Ratnagiri refinery.

Nigeria’s importation of petroleum products was initially intended as a temporary solution to the insufficient supply from its four state-owned refineries. However, due to inefficiency and corruption, this temporary measure has become a permanent solution.

In Nigeria, the prices of refined petroleum products are heavily influenced by import-related factors. There are over ten components contributing to the landing cost of petrol, including freight, port charges, the NMDPRA 1% levy, storage costs, marine insurance, fendering, the NMDPRA COQ and NOA, Q&Q analysis, letter of credit fees, and interest. Additionally, the high exchange rate further inflates the price of imported petrol. To eliminate these extra costs, local refining is the only viable solution. Nigeria’s only option for now is the Dangote refinery.

Many Nigerians, ordinary citizens, and bureaucrats view the $19 billion Dangote refinery as an asset and a blessing. It has the potential to liberate Nigeria from decades of dependence on petrol importation, which is one of the major causes of pressure on the Naira and the scarcity of the dollar. The refinery will position Nigeria on the map of nations exporting crude and refined petroleum products and fertiliser. 

Dangote Fertiliser is one of the largest fertiliser plants in the world, with an annual production capacity of 3 million metric tonnes of urea. Nigeria’s yearly urea fertiliser needs are only 1.5 million metric tonnes. 

Dangote has already demonstrated his capability in the cement industry. With Dangote Cement, Nigeria is a net exporter. Nigeria boasts one of the largest cement industries in Africa, with a combined production capacity of over 58.9 million metric tonnes per year among major producers. It leads the cement industry in West Africa, hosting at least 12 registered companies. Dangote Cement is the largest producer in Nigeria and West Africa, contributing over 35.25 million metric tonnes per year (Mt/yr) to the region’s cement capacity. Due to Dangote’s significant cement production capacity, Nigeria satisfies not only its domestic cement needs but also exports to neighbouring countries, enhancing regional trade and economic integration.

Let the Dangote refinery be! It will transform the Nigerian oil and gas industry into a net exporter of refined petroleum products.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.

By Usman Abdullahi Koli, ANIPR 

Experts say that the newly established Dangote Refinery might address Nigeria’s energy crisis, but this legacy project is finding its footing in navigating the rigours of International Oil Companies (IOCs). Not only this, but government strategy policy greatly affects operations in the business space. The refinery is facing a fresh challenge from regulatory bodies in Nigeria, which may make or mar its success.

The $19 billion Dangote Refinery project has ignited a fierce debate between the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC) and Aliko Dangote – Africa’s richest man. This flagship project, poised to be the largest single-train refinery in the world, has the potential to transform Nigeria’s economy and reshape the continent’s energy landscape. 

Yet, the dispute between NNPC and Dangote threatens to derail this vision. Can Nigeria find a harmonious balance between private sector efficiency and public sector oversight, unlocking the full potential of this game-changing project?

Aliko Dangote’s vision for the refinery is to reduce Nigeria’s dependency on imported refined petroleum products, saving the country billions in foreign exchange. He emphasises the need for private sector management to ensure efficiency and accountability, citing historical inefficiencies in government-run enterprises. Dangote seeks assurances that his substantial investment will yield returns, expressing concerns about potential government interference that could jeopardise profitability.

On the other hand, the NNPC maintains that it must have a significant role in the refinery to safeguard national interests. The corporation argues that state involvement is crucial to ensure that the refinery’s output aligns with national energy policies and goals. NNPC also emphasises the need for regulatory oversight to prevent monopolistic practices and ensure that prices of refined products remain affordable for Nigerians.

According to Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Managing Director, “Our involvement in the Dangote Refinery is to ensure that the project aligns with national interests and that the country benefits maximally from the investment.” Aliko Dangote, however, believes that “private sector efficiency is key to the success of the refinery, and government interference could hinder its progress.”

Dangote might be jittery about the government’s ineffectiveness in running similar assets. His fears would be that he who failed to turn around his refinery successfully wanted a front seat and, perhaps, direction. The business mogul’s aims surpassed the government’s fight against it after the allegations of monopoly attempts by the government. 

Dangote said his friend, who warned him against investing in Nigeria, now mocks him. He was ready to be bought out by the government when the regulatory body said that the refinery’s output was inferior to imported products. This statement ignited reactions from netizens.

The dispute highlights the tension between private enterprise and state control in critical sectors. Both sides present valid arguments that merit consideration. Balancing economic independence with national control, operational efficiency with public accountability, and investment security with public interest is essential to harness the benefits of both approaches.

As the saying goes, “Too many cooks can spoil the broth,” but in this case, finding a harmonious balance is key to ensuring the refinery’s success and, ultimately, Nigeria’s economic stability. Efficiency must be paired with accountability for any project to succeed, and this wisdom applies aptly to the current NNPC-Dangote situation.

Transparency and mutual respect are the pillars upon which this partnership should rest. By acknowledging the strengths and concerns of both parties, Nigeria can move towards a solution that advances the Dangote Refinery project while ensuring sustainable and inclusive growth for the nation.

In the words of Aliko Dangote, “The success of the refinery is paramount for Nigeria’s economic stability.” Mele Kyari also notes, “Our goal is to ensure that the refinery serves the national interest while also providing returns on investment.” Ultimately, the NNPC-Dangote dispute underscores the complexities of managing critical national assets. By finding a middle ground that balances private sector efficiency with public sector oversight, Nigeria can unlock the full potential of the Dangote Refinery and secure a brighter energy future for generations to come.

The path forward lies in a collaborative effort where the private and public sectors work together. If handled with care and foresight, this partnership can transform Nigeria’s energy landscape and set a benchmark for future endeavours. The Dangote Refinery has the potential to be a game-changer, and it is in the best interest of all Nigerians to see it succeed.

Usman Abdullahi Koli wrote via mernoukoli@gmail.com.

By Ahmad Deedat Zakari

Consumate entrepreneur and African wealthiest man, Aliko Dangote, has made promises of higher returns to shareholders and stakeholders of the Dangote conglomerate

The richest black man, who is the chairman of the Dangote Group, disclosed this in Lagos during the group’s 14th Annual General Meeting held in Lagos on Thursday.

He said, “We will continue to make sure that we keep our shareholders happy, not only the shareholders but all our other stakeholders… Our strategy remains steadfast, focused on organic growth in Nigeria and Pan-Africa while ensuring that Africa’s regional integration becomes a reality. We will continue to contribute to improving regional trade within Africa by building plants across West and Central Africa, guided by our vision of making the region cement and clinker self-sufficient. In addition, we aim to deliver higher returns and value to our shareholders.”

He also noted that despite the challenging economic atmosphere,
the company still made great strides, performed admirably, and remains Africa’s largest and leading cement producer.

He stated, ” In addition, we achieved giant strides in transitioning to cleaner energy, with our cost containment initiative propelling the use of Alternative Fuel (AF) to replace more expensive fossil fuels, such as coal and gas. We also increased the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for our trucks due to the rising diesel cost environment. These efforts have helped us reduce our cost base and enhanced our flexibility, enabling the Company to respond more effectively to changes in the market. As a result, we recorded revenue and EBITDA growth of 17.0 per cent and 3.5 per cent from the prior year respectively, albeit under unprecedented inflationary pressure. We also achieved a profit after tax of ₦382.3 billion, up 4.9 per cent compared to 2021.”

While speaking further on the success of the group, he stated that the company has generated more revenue in 2022 than any other year.

By Aisar Fagge

About fifty trainees graduated from the Dangote Articulated Truck Driving School. The effort was to minimize the rate of auto crashes involving its drivers and other road users in the country.

The trainees who celebrated the success amidst joy have passed through a specially designed and rigorous educational curriculum, said the Divisional Director Transport (DDT), Mr Ajay Singh.

Mr Singh, who spoke at the graduation ceremony, said the trainees would now be exposed to practicals through attachments for an additional six months.

The Daily Reality gathered that the school at Obajana is one of its kind, having been the only accredited truck driving academy in Nigeria.

It was learned that the school was commissioned last year by the former Corps Marshal of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Dr Boboye Olayemi Oyeyemi.

The effort was to bring solutions to the menacing issue of auto crashes involving articulated trucks in Nigeria.

Mr Singh said that the school would not only bring down the rate of crashes involving articulated vehicles but also positively impact other drivers.

He was quoted as saying, “The ultimate objective was to achieve zero accidents for all subsidiaries in the Dangote Group.

Also speaking, Mr Daniel Marcus Akuso said the intensive training was carried out in collaboration with the FRSC and Fantique Driving Training Centre of South Africa.

According to the Manager of the school, the three months training programme has been a big success and changed the orientation of the trainees.

He said, “This is the only articulated truck driving school in Nigeria where the students are paid stipends, trained, tested, certified, licensed, and employed. Our products are not only for Dangote Cement but for all subsidiaries of the Dangote Group in Africa.”

By Aisar Fagge

Fatima Aliko Dangote, the Executive Director, Commercial, NASCON Allied Industries, has commended women for playing a crucial role in making the Dangote Group achieve many successes.

The Director made the commendation while opening the International Women’s Day Conference in Lagos and Dangote Cement Plc, Obajana Plant.

She stated that the company had offered its employees many opportunities that helped them improve their personal and professional development.

She added that the group has been working tirelessly to achieve gender equality for all women in the organisation through the investment of numerous innovative technologies and processes.

She stated, “At the plants, we have the Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis (PGNAA) for online analysis, robotic laboratory, and fully automated central control room system equipped with Human Machine Interface technology (HMI) and innovative solutions to drive resource efficiency, process optimisation and mitigate the environmental footprints of our products while delivering quality products that meet the needs of our esteemed customers.

“We are inspired by our superheroes in STEM, and we hope this session increases your awareness of innovation, technology, and digital education, driven by women for women, and learn advancements in digital technology that address how we rethink our daily lives and achieve our personal and professional goals.

“I would like to encourage our women with a few tips on leveraging technology, Equipping yourselves academically and technically, be inspired and inspire others by creating opportunities for regular interactions with female STEM champions and leaders and tapping into opportunities for hands-on experience in the form of volunteering”, she added.

Also speaking at the event, the Chairperson of the Dangote Women Network at the DCP Obajana, Mrs Fatima Kabir Ikunaiye, said the Network has been carrying out several interventional programmes in the cause of women.

Mrs Ikunaiye said some of the programmes include: support for orphanages and vulnerable homes, sensitisation and empowerment of women as well as training them on skill acquisition.

By Aisar Fagge

The Dangote Group Tuesday has bagged the First Runner-Up award at the just concluded 44th Kaduna International Trade Fair in Kaduna State.

The group was awarded for its enormous contribution in buoying investment opportunities across Africa through numerous businesses and philanthropic forays.

The Dangote Group made the disclosure in a news release issued to journalists on Monday.

The statement disclosed that Professor Umar Dantsoho, an economist, while speaking to journalists on the event, said the Dangote Industries Limited has been creating investment and job opportunities for Africans through its cement establishments in Nigeria and in Africa.

He said the key to developing the African economy is through the growth of the manufacturing sector, which is a major preoccupation of the company.

The statement added that, “Only recently, Dangote Industries Limited sealed a fresh deal of six million tons per annum with China Sinoma International Engineering which will strengthen local and African production to 57.6 million tons per annum.

“Aside government, Dangote Group is adjudged the biggest employer of labor in Nigeria.

“Speaking also Second Vice President of the Kaduna Chamber of Commerce Industry Mines and Agriculture (KADCCIMA). Alhaji Faruk Suleiman, commended the company for creating opportunities across Africa, adding that the upcoming Dangote petrochemical refinery will change the face of the African economy.

“General Manager, Sales, Dangote Sugar Refinery (DSR) North-West, Alhaji Abdulsalam Waya said the conglomerate would continue to provide opportunities for all willing Nigeria to invest as distributors or as investors in the stock market.

“He added that the theme for this year’s Trade Fare: Value Addition for Sustainable Growth and Development is apt, as Dangote Cement exports its product to several African countries, thereby creating jobs and opportunities across the value chain.

“The company is the major sponsor of the 44th annual event.

“Speaking, President of KADCCIMA Alhaji Suleiman Aliyu described the partnership with Dangote as very important for deepening commercial activities in the country.

“He said the support of the Dangote Group towards the success of the Fair cannot be quantified.

“Speaking to newsmen, the Director General of the Chamber Mr. Usman Saulawa said the Dangote Group is a major sponsor of this year’s Trade Fair and has been sponsoring the annual event.

“He said Dangote Group has been playing the role of supporter and partner for many years. It participation has been adding value to the Chamber.”

“The DG described this year’s fair as unique as there would be a Business Roundtable session that will further help deepens business opportunities for participants.

“The companies that participated under Dangote Industries Limited are Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar, NASCON, Dangote Fertiliser, and Dangote Sinotruk West Africa Limited.

“A statement from the Corporate Communication Department of the Dangote Group said participants who seek to do business with any of the company’s subsidiaries can avail themselves of such opportunity through a special help desk at the pavilion.

“It described Kaduna State as one of the biggest markets in the country, given its historical position as the political capital of Northern Nigeria,” the statement added.

By Muhammad Sabiu