Politics

By Ibrahym A. El-Caleel

First, I am neither a propagandist nor an apologist of any of the personalities mentioned in this article. I am a Nigerian with keen interest in the Nigeria project.

Gov Nasir El-Rufai is many things. I used to say Governor Hajjaj bn Yusuf Al-Thaqafiy of the Umayyad Dynasty and Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State share some leadership traits. Both of them are efficient leaders who lead with uncommon pragmatism. They set and achieve their goals not minding whose ox is gored in the process. They made stellar achievements that haven’t been recorded by their predecessors. Both Hajjaj and El-Rufai are vicious in handling political rivalry. They fight it with mightiness, or what Robert Greene would say; crush your enemy totally. Juxtapose everything that Hajjaj did in Iraq with El-Rufai’s lockdown during Covid; mass sackings or what he calls right-sizing; demolition of houses. How El-Rufai demolished the house of his political rival and a serving senator, Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi is an example of how extreme he can handle political rivalry. So this is a man who you should ordinarily avoid when selecting a wrestling mate in the political ring. But somehow, the Kaduna Christian South establishment seemed not to have studied the personality close enough.

Their melodrama was so graphical that they presented the region as a sworn political opposition to El-Rufai. From 2015-2019, El-Rufai’s deputy, the Late Arc Barnabas Bala Bantex was from that region and a Christian himself. They have been friends from their university days and worked amicably as leaders of Kaduna State. El-Rufai would travel and give Bantex the acting governor capacity. But that hasn’t fetch El-Rufai any political capital from the region where his deputy hails from. In 2019, Bantex decided to contest for a senatorial seat in the same Kaduna Christian South but he failed the election. Thanks or no thanks to his dining with a man whose politics they are not in good terms with. On his part, El-Rufai felt he has nothing to gain politically from a people who abhor his politics. So, he decided to pick a Muslim running mate from the minority in that region. He was willing to test the depth of the river with both feet. He must be a daring researcher to experiment a Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna State. No one has tried it since the return of democracy in 1999. He took the calculated risk and it eventually worked. Today, anyone can try it knowing that it flies to victory.

Kaduna State looks like Plateau State from the demographics. El-Rufai must have borrowed the template from neighbouring Plateau State, which despite having a significant Muslim population, have always fielded a Christian-Christian ticket which has always succeeded. It has never been a Christian-Muslim ticket in Plateau. We underestimate these politicians, but they are cunning. We waste so much time insulting and criticising them, while they study us carefully. Bravo to them. In this article, let’s review how they successfully study and beat the intellect of the proletariat. When did the choice of a running mate began to matter?

Five Nigerian heads of state have died while in office. Three were killed in bloody coups, while only two died from natural causes to pass the leadership mantle to their deputies. Few civilian governors died in office to give way to their deputies. In conclusion, most elected leaders complete their tenure. However, there is a developing appetite to discuss the possible death of a president or governor. The main aim is to develop some vibrancy around the offices of Deputy Governor and Vice President; to show that it matters.

These two ”assisting” offices are largely inert. When you occupy either of them, then literally, the only freedom you have is the freedom to choose the type of tea you drink in your office. The president/governor is the man who calls the shots. You don’t get to do much “to your people” unless Oga gives you the go ahead. You will be visibly absent in the news. Indigenes of your village will unconsciously forget that they have their brother in government. I explained this better in the long Hausa article I wrote in defence of VP Atiku who is constantly fired that he hasn’t done anything for the north.

If you ask my view, I would say the Vice President and Deputy Governor positions are ceremonial. Unless you have a boss like President Buhari who will gladly give you the “Acting President” for two months to show your muscle; or you have a boss like Gov El-Rufai who will give you “Acting Governor” position to swing the armchair for 3 weeks. Many ogas never give their deputies any chance to do something tangible. If a deputy is quite ambitious, then his Oga’s men (aka cabal) will easily notice it. They will set him at loggerheads with Oga. He is eyeing your seat! This is how Ogas and their deputies usually start their fight. Go and verify!

How was VP Goodluck Jonathan faring under President Yar’Adua? Was he doing anything spectacular in his native Niger-Delta region? Was Deputy Governor Ramalan Yero even in the mass media while Gov Patrick Yakowa was calling the shots in Kaduna? Deputies are not even visible, talk less of executing anything so serious. VP Yemi Osinbajo is only lucky that President Buhari is a nice Oga. Yemi Osinbajo could even use his ad-hoc “Acting President” muscle to dismiss DG SSS, Lawal Daura. He was given the opportunity as an Acting President to swear-in Justice Walter Onnoghen as Chief Justice of Nigeria after Buhari kept the judge in an acting capacity. Buhari is a soft and simple Oga. No Nigerian Vice President in the last 24 years enjoyed this opportunity and audacity. It was on this basis that I made my case saying VP Atiku was being unfairly flogged over something that was beyond his control. In his case, he was not just ambitious, he was fighting with Oga’s third term agenda. How could Oga give him any breathing space to look politically relevant in his region?

Anyway, back to my main discussion:

Today, these deputy posts have only become a discussion topic because politicians are playing to the gullibility of the fairly-conscious electorate. Religion is serious and appeals to the sensibilities of the average electorate. In a state like Plateau with a very large number of Muslim population, it has always been a Christian-Christian leadership. Currently in Kaduna, APC is hosting a Muslim-Muslim ticket, while PDP is hosting a Muslim-Christian ticket. In Plateau State, both APC and PDP are hosting Christian-Christian tickets. The same faith ticket in Plateau has become a culture in such a way that no one is even talking against it any more. Any major political party that dares host a Muslim deputy governor in Plateau State is already wearing a political disadvantage. Ditto Taraba and Benue States.

El-Rufai and Kaduna APC have understood that a Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna appeals to the majority of the voters in the state as well. It worked perfectly in 2019, this is why the template is re-applied in 2023. The only reason why the success is not guaranteed this time around is because of El-Rufai’s excesses in mass layoffs, demolitions, prolonged lockdown of the major cities and markets during the pandemic and other anti-proletariat actions. This is why some voters are thinking they need to punish El-Rufai by not voting his anointed candidate in the APC. But religion is something we place above everything. When the average voter remembers the Plateau and Taraba scenarios, his mind will draw him closer to vote for the Muslim-Muslim ticket in favour of the APC. Especially since this time around, El-Rufai is not the face on the ticket. Uba Sani is largely seen as generous and will not be as socioeconomically toxic as his friend. This is why Uba Sani has better chances of coasting to victory than Isah Ashiru. 



If the APC makes it to the Kashim Ibrahim House another time, then the PDP might have no choice than to also start adopting a Muslim-Muslim ticket effective 2027. I told you that both APC and PDP are fielding Christian-Christian tickets in neighbouring Plateau State. No political party exists to appeal to your personal religious sentiments. What maters to every political party is to win elections by virtue of what majority of the electorate are okay with. This is why it was laughable watching some Islamic scholars on their pulpits explaining how the Tinubu-Shettima ticket is the next best thing to Islam since Salahuddeen Al-Ayyubiy. It is all politics!

Tinubu is a veteran politician. He knows that picking a northern Christian means he wants the PDP to defeat him as early as 8:00 am on the election day. In your right senses, do you think Tinubu believes that Yakubu Dogara or Babachir Lawal as Christian northerner will earn him the huge political capital laden in the populous Muslim North? It is said that Yoruba Muslims are a minority when you look at the entire population of Southern Nigerian. So Tinubu emerged from the so-called minority there, then he will come to the north and pick a running mate from the Christian minority again? Two minorities on a ticket? Isn’t that a recipe for defeat? This was why he picked Shettima; to tap into the political capital in the Muslim North. Not because he will launch Shari’a in Abuja. If he was that type, he wouldn’t be confidently telling you his wife is Christian. Expectedly, the average Nigerian christian electorate ran away from that ticket as if it was sponsored by ISIS; while the average Nigerian muslim electorate welcomed it as if it was formed by Shehu Usman Danfodio 200 years ago. But it was all politics! Apologies to Simon Kolawole. Tells you that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu knows his onions. A long time ago, even Chief Olusegun Obasanjo has testified that Tinubu is a great politician. 



The same faith ticket will still be a key discussion in the 2027 polls especially if Tinubu is able to get it correctly on either security or economy, or both. These two issues are the main troubles affecting the north at this time. Even if he fails every other thing, but gets these two correctly, then the north will still be so passionate about the Muslim-Muslim ticket again. The average northern electorate will only have second thoughts if he sees the same Buhari poor scorecard is what Tinubu is generating. This is when the opposition parties can have a space to gain some votes, just like we are seeing in Kaduna. Uba Sani’s strongest opponent is not Isah Ashiru. It is Gov Nasir El-Rufai. Had people not felt that El-Rufai mercilessly dealth with them, then Isah Ashiru would have been a walk over for Uba Sani. The mere mention of Muslim-Muslim ticket will command a huge voter turnout, and Uba Sani would not have so much to worry about. Especially since Uba Sani appears to be more qualified and ready for the job than Isah Ashiru.

Same-faith tickets give very little room to discuss what matters in a nation like ours. No time to discuss quality of the candidates and what they have to offer for our myriad of problems. In 2023, Nigeria that used to be richer than Singapore does not have a stable electricity; her universities could be closed for a whole academic session because of striking lecturers; her doctors are leaving its underfunded health sector. Many pressing issues. But politicians are using religion to take away the minds of the suffering electorate from all these pressing needs.

It shall be well, someday!

Ibrahiym A. El-Caleel writes from Zaria, and is reachable via caleel2009@gmail.com

By Ukasha Rabiu Magama

In preparation ahead for the 11 March 2023 gubernatorial and state House of Assemblies elections and to show their happiness over the victory of Hon. Shehu Buba Umar, Bauchi South Senator-elect, and Hon. Ismail Haruna Dabo, the Representative-elect, Toro federal constituency, the Magama Political Concern Citizens organized a feast in honour of the emerging candidates.

The feast, which took place at the Magama Gumau Central Primary School, was organised under the leadership of Comrade Ahmad Haruna Bamaiyi to celebrate the emerging candidates on their victory as well as pray for them to deliver on their campaign promises.

Bamaiyi said a cow worth N600,000 to enjoy the moment, and the elected representatives were reminded to deliver on their campaign promises, adding that people from different locations were called to enjoy the moment irrespective of religion, ethnicity and political backgrounds.

Highlighting the significance of the feast, comrade Bamaiyi said the victory is from Allah and the massive support offered by the electorates, and therefore, it is good to gather together to eat, drink and thank God the Almighty for the victory of the candidates.

Bamaiyi also called on the attendants to come out en-mass on 11 march 2023 to complete the remaining task waiting for them by voting massively for Air Vice-Marshal Sadiq Baba Abubakar as Bauchi state governor and Hon. Tukur Ibrahim as the lawmaker representing Toro/Jama’a at the State Hous of Assembly.

The feast had in attendance some special dignitaries, among which include; Bashir Musa, the Sarkin Sudan of Toro, Haruna Gidado Tilde, APC local government women leader, youths and women associations, among many others.

By Ahmad Deedat Zakari

The New Nigerian People’s Party, NNPP, has reveal plans by the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, to rig the forthcoming gubernatorial election in Kano State.

Dr Baffa Abdullahi Bichi, an NNPP cheiftain, made the allegations in a press conference on Monday.

According to Mr Bichi, Plans are underway for the repetition of the 2019 massive rigging of the APC by the Ganduje’s led administration.

Mr Bichi said, as defeat and rejection stare the APC in the face, the Ganduje’s led government is fervently plotting to thwart the will of Kano people.

Mr Bichi alleged that the government is hiring thugs and hunters from Cameroon and Bauchi to distrupt the electoral Process. He also said that the government in collaboration with INEC plan to cause unnecessary delay in polling units where the APC can not win. He added that it is part of their strategy to invade collation centers.

By Ahmad Deedat Zakari

The Kaduna Chapter of the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, has endorsed the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Isah Ashiru, for the forthcoming gubernatorial election in the state.

The State CAN Chairman, Rev. John Joseph Hayab, disclosed in a statement on Monday.

According to CAN, they arrived at the decision after reviewing the just concluded presidential and national assembly elections. They added that owing to the Labour Party’s performance in the presidential election, a vote for the party is a complete waste.

CAN also said they have reached an agreement with the PDP’s gubernatorial candidate, Isah Ashiru, on positions he will reserve for Christians in exchange for their votes.

CAN further explained that they are not comfortable with the background and the religious disposition of the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Uba Sani. They said he favours the Muslims and the marginalisation of Christians will get worse if he becomes governor.

Part of the statement reads, “That it has been observed that aside being a son of a prominent Islamic cleric in Zaria, the APC gubernatorial candidate is more likely to promote Islam than the current governor. Because he is constantly seen around Islamic clerics and making huge donations to the propagation of Islam in Kaduna State. he also facilitated the disbursement of CBN’s non-interest loans. 80% of the beneficiaries in Kaduna were Moslems. Therefore, Christians should bear in mind that our current marginalisation will only become worse if he is voted as governor!”

By Abubakar Usman Almajiri

The Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, is more of an albatross to Christianity and Christians. The excessive aggression and confrontational behaviour of its ranks have always caused Muslims to rise, be on the alert, and engage in retaliation or reprisals. The latest in the reaction of Muslims to CAN intrigues is their response to the so-called Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket. 

In this same country, we have seen Generals Aguiyi-Ironsi and Yakubu Gowon rule with a Christian head and Christian 2iC. Not a single person raised an eyebrow. We have also seen a time when Moshood Abiola, a Muslim, contested with a Muslim 2iC and won. 

Today, Bola Tinubu has contested a Muslim-Muslim ticket just as a matter of winning strategy, not a religious sentiment. People within CAN who felt they should be the VP candidates, Babachir Lawal and co, went hey war. They rallied CAN and Christians against that. And they mislead Christians into the idea of a Christian candidacy that has just failed. 

The failure is not even the problem. The problem is in what translates to in the future. Nigerians will now openly engage in religious politics with all the dangers that spell. The atmosphere is already overcharged by that, and almost nothing can be done. 

Let us not forget that CAN, a religious minority in Nigeria compared to Islam, has always banked on the death of Muslim presidents to clinch power. 

President Umar Musa ‘Yaradua died in power under controversial circumstances. He was believed to have been poisoned. In any case, his choice to succeed General Olusegun Obasanjo was made after scrutinising the medical files of serving PDP governors under Obasanjo. The one who is most terminally ill, ‘Yaradua, was opted for. The objective was for him to die in power so a CANist could take over. 

CANists taking over is not a problem. The problem is always how they run governance in the most despicably lopsided manner. A manner that hurts and kills people of the North and Muslims. We have an example in Goodluck Jonathan’s regime. Also, in the Obasanjo regime.

Obasanjo has done the most heinous maltreatment of Muslims before him. He also attempted to extend his tenure beyond constitutional provisions. He attempted to change the constitution to favour his self-succession bid. When that failed, he searched for the most sickly Nigerian governor to hand over to so that power would return to him via his pawn. That happened. The pawn he had in place betrayed him but remained a CAN puppet. 

Boko Haram grew from an Obasanjo strategy to the monster it became under Jonathan. Via fight against Boko Haram, the beautiful and commerce burbling City of Bags was completely burned to ashes by Gen. Ihejerika under Jonathan. A civil war hero, Gen. Shuwa, was murdered cold-bloodedly in suspicious circumstances.

Jonathan, like Obasanjo, used the opportunity of inheriting the presidency under emergent situations to lure serving a governor in a Muslim-dominant state (i.e. Kaduna) with Vice Presidential positions so that their Christian deputies would become governors. 

That happened in Kaduna State with Vice President Namadi Sambo, who chose to accept the Vice-President position, paving the way for Patrick Yakowa. Yakowa ruled Kaduna state in the most lopsided manner. He rigged his re-election bid, and to protect his rule, the entire Muslim side of Kaduna was kept with soldiers and sandbags every inch. We lived like that for years until Yakowa died in a plane crash. Boni Haruna had the opportunity to run Adamawa state similarly. 

There were hues and cries, but I am unsure what happened there. 

CAN now has this strong penchant for having Muslim rulers die in office. The death of Yar’adua was openly celebrated even though he was a perfect gentleman. President Muhammadu Buhari almost died due to a suspicious ailment. The celebration began even before he died. And they kept expecting him to die. They even propounded the theory of ‘Jubril of Sudan’ to assert that he died and was exchanged. That’s how desperate they are. 

The Muslim-Muslim ticket would not have been in vogue it is without the desperate aggressions CAN employs.

I know many people who despised Kaduna’s Muslim-Muslim experiment and are now very happy with the National Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Abubakar Usman Almajiri wrote from Kaduna State.

By Auwal Umar

One thing that is exciting about democracy is its being internally endowed with an inbuilt system that avails citizens with an automatic power to punish or reward their benefactors or tormentors every four years. Politically, many causative factors bring down elected officials or traditional leaders from their seats or rob away their sceptres.

In a democratic setting, nothing so precarious leads to the downfall, even more, dangerous than powerful political opposition than the collective power of protest votes. Protest votes are votes cast by various aggrieved members among frustrated citizens dissatisfied with the incumbent government and determined to cast their votes to penalise the leaders they perceive as incompetent or self-serving. In the last US election, former president Donald Trump and his fanatics were made to understand the power of protest votes. Here in Nigeria, ex-president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan had his taste in 2015.

With less than a week left for the gubernatorial election, the Kano political thunderstorms have gathered. Kano has various groups of people that have grown dissatisfied and overly tired of the APC government under Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and his deputy, Malam Nasiru Gawuna. These aggrieved groups include students, Adaidaita-Sahu (tricyclists) riders, Kwari and Kofar Wambai markets traders, civil servants, and many others. These people consider voting for the current APC gubernatorial candidate and his deputy as a celebration and incentivisation of their unwanted act that led to the worst rerun election in the history of Kano polity.

That infamous rerun election has become a memory that still haunts us and deprives the Kano people of peace, especially with the daily sight of thugs taking over localities and the government seemingly unflustered. Therefore, the people seem to bear an implacable feeling of revenge towards the APC with their most potent weapon at the moment— PVC. This might be glad tidings for the NNPP and its boss, Dr Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, who fields the same gubernatorial candidate, Engr. Abba Kabir Yusuf, alias Abba Gida-Gida.

Abba Gida-Gida won the previous election with an unbeatable lead before it was dramatically declared inconclusive, which eventually changed the course of his victory. The kinds of people who still feel shortchanged by the results of the rerun election have come from diverse social statuses among the good people of Kano.

First, the collective electorate versus the indelible scar of “Inconclusive”: Looking at his wide popularity and acceptance across the teeming population of the state, especially among the youth, nothing was surprising in Abba’s victory in the 2019 gubernatorial election. The electorate toiled and moiled hard all day from dawn to dusk to ensure their favourite candidate emerged victorious. But inadvertently, some unscrupulous thugs led by the current deputy governor, the APC gubernatorial candidate of the ruling party, Malam Nasiru Gawuna and his deputy gubernatorial candidate, Murtala Sule Garo, disrupted the whole scene, which led to the worst rerun in our living memories.

The drama leading to the rerun is an ignominious act that still haunts our psyche and traumatises our brains. That utter embarrassment has planted an undying seed of revenge in the hearts of the Kano people for the upcoming election, irrespective of who is fielded as the APC candidate. The rerun had exposed the deeply insatiable lust for power at all costs. What else can explain the action of someone who hired the services of vampiric thugs that were so thirty of the blood of innocent voters just to ensure the will of the majority was ruthlessly robbed with not an atom of compassion?

Today, such social, psychological and physical casualties of the sham called election are still alive, hale and hearty and fully ready for revenge. People living at Gama ward, in particular, and places affected by the consequences of the terrible rerun need no more explanation of the horrors they saw with their own eyes.

Second, the Kano APC government versus scholars: Kwankwaso’s government had sponsored some brilliant Kano indigenes who went abroad to study different courses for the good of the state and the nation to add more value and human resources for the good of the general public. Some of these students who could not finish their studies during Kwankwaso’s reign needed registration and upkeep allowance to continue their studies during the outgoing Ganduje’s reign. But for the sake of bitter politics, these students were wholly ostracised despite being Kano indigenes who were abroad to study and not for tourism. These people are now ready for the 11th March in the eleventh hour to take their revenge.

Third, the Kano APC-led government versus the Kano state Students at Higher Institutions: Kano state students studying at various institutions of learning across the country have already come to terms with the deafening silence of the Kano state government that no longer gives them their meagre annual scholarship which amounts to nothing but a token of concern and appreciation of their struggle to study and liberate themselves from the darkness of ignorance. From the onset, it began with a wicked issuance of useless award letters; then, it metamorphosed to sample payment before gradually morphing into total non-payment of the scholarship. Therefore, these students are neither blind nor deaf. However, their anger is reserved and will be vented on election day.

Fourth, during Kwankwaso’s and Shekarau’s eras, Kano indigenes who successfully studied bachelor’s of Law were sponsored to attend Law School. That gesture helped many Law graduates from poor economic backgrounds realise their dreams of being called to the bar. But for this humanitarian service rendered by these two governors, many of them I know of would not have been officially addressed as barristers or learned colleagues.

The exorbitant fee for Law School has already risen, leaving many Law graduates roaming the streets with their hope dashed. But based on what I see from the lawyer-cum-activist, Abba Hikima, popularly known as ‘Champion of the Downtrodden”, he pledges to lend his voice to the cause to take those people whose hopes were dashed by this APC-led government. Of course, it is not incumbent upon the government to do that, but it’s something very laudable that might help bridge the wide gap between the haves and the have-nots in the state.

In addition, this act places Kano students in an advantageous position ahead of many students who might not benefit from the same gesture in their states. For the war to save the potential barristers and the stranded Law graduates left in limbo due to their financial status, they will express their anger through their PVCs.

Auwal Umar wrote from Kano. He can be contacted via auwaluumar9@gmail.com.

By Uzair Adam Imam

The African Union (AU) has called on the discontent presidential candidates to maintain peace and order as they seek redress over the outcome of the election results in court.

The AU’s Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, made the call in a statement he issued to journalists on Friday.

Challenging the outcome of the election results that declared Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the winner, both Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) have vowed to drag INEC to the court over the results.

Mahamat said, “In this regard, the Chairperson urges all stakeholders to uphold peace and the rule of law and further urges that any post-election dispute or grievance be pursued through the judicial system, as provided for by the law.”

“The Chairperson expresses his deep gratitude to H.E Uhuru Kenyatta, former president of the Republic of Kenya, for his outstanding leadership as head of the African Union Election Mission to the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

“The Chairperson also extends his appreciation to ECOWAS and other partners for their fruitful collaboration in support of a peaceful election process in Nigeria.

“The Chairperson renews the commitment of the African Union to support the sisterly Federal Republic of Nigeria in her journey to deepen democracy, good governance, sustainable development and consolidate peace, security, and stability in the country,” he added.

By Isma’il Hashim Abubakar 

I was primarily not comfortable with the idea and bid of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which the ruling party APC had issued to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim Shettima as its presidential candidate and running mate, respectively. I held this view for several reasons, some of which were equally articulated by various analysts, commentators and opinionists.  

Like many thousands of Nigerians, particularly Muslims, I also believed that the Muslim-Muslim ticket was a necessary deceptive winning strategy rather than an intrepid move toward the triumph of Islam in a pluralistic country that has been suffering from the demographic competition. In 2015 when Muhammadu Buhari became the flag-bearer of the APC, there were indications that Bola Tinubu (a major stakeholder in the political merger that culminated in the sweeping victories of the APC during the 2015 elections) had a strong zest to be picked by Buhari as the latter’s running mate. But the old general refused to do so, obviously to carry along the Christians and canvass their support and secure their votes; no farsighted politician would risk hurting the sensibilities of even a small number of voters, let alone a big population that once claimed to possess demographic supremacy in the country’s entire population. 

The Muslim-Muslim presidency was thought by the Christian population but, in fact, to many Muslims as well to be a permanent impossibility in Nigeria’s political arena. Christians, who are a Nigerian minority as it has been proven now beyond the cobwebs of doubt, had been regarding Muslim-Muslim presidency as a unique Muslim utopian vision and a fruitless attempt of flying a kite either to see how high it would go in the sky or to gauge the direction of the wind.

Thus, Nigerian Christians never hid their opposition to the development and spared no effort to fight the bid. Churches became platforms for homilies on Christian unity and mobilization of support and strong, formidable religious support and solidarity in favour of the Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi, the only  Christian who contested against three Muslims in the race for the highest political office in the land.

The defeat of Peter Obi, as portrayed in the milieu of Christians, was akin to the fall of the rising Christendom and the failure of the Christian cause in Nigeria. Therefore,  not minding the huge irrecoverable costs of putting their eggs in one basket, Christians unanimously gathered their voting strength on their own candidate and wholeheartedly threw their support to Peter Obi. Although, like their Christian counterparts, Muslims had also used religious infrastructure to mobilize support for Bola Ahmed Tinubu and framed casting votes for him as a “political Jihad”, it was understandably impractical since Muslim votes must be inevitably divided between the three other contenders, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP and Bola Ahmed of APC.

After all, many northerners were yet sceptical of Tinubu’s nationalism and cosmopolitanism, and he was certainly viewed as an ethnic champion and a pursuer of Yoruba’s agenda. Added to this, the fact that Tinubu’s wife (and an acclaimed pastor, for that matter) and the majority (if not all) of his children are said to be Christians, some northern Muslims felt that Tinubu’s victory should in some form be considered as the triumph of Christians. As such, Muslims believed that the influence of these important organs around Tinubu must be beyond imagination. 

In the runoff to the 2023 presidential election, the Muslim society in northern Nigeria, which, as always, largely relies on the homilies of the clerical establishment in the region, became extremely divided as to which of the three candidates Muslims should support. Scholars who were loyalists to northern governors, some of whom were/are among their political appointees, had preached in favour of Tinubu and showed his election as a necessity that Muslims must wholeheartedly work for. Other scholars, most of whom were independent and largely young scholars, openly campaigned for Atiku Abubakar and warned northerners against voting for someone outside their region. The majority of scholars, however, seemed to take a neutral position and advised that Muslims could vote for any of the three candidates since each of them is a Muslim.

Despite the respected Jos-based cleric Shaykh Jingir defied this order, it was the position popularized and voiced loudly by the outspoken Izala, the proto-Salafi group which in the past used to explicitly campaign for Buhari and make it a religious obligation upon all Muslims to vote for the old general. It appeared that the group decided this time not to openly side with any of the candidates since some people had been launching attacks on the group for asking them to vote for Buhari, but then the group failed to criticize Buhari’s leadership failure. It was even argued that Izala (whose top figures are friends and loyalists to some northern governors) was inwardly supporting Tinubu’s candidature, but it was afraid of the protest and condemnation of its followers and the larger Muslim public. Thus, it decided to exhibit outward neutrality. 

Whatever the case, the Muslim-Muslim ticket has, despite these binaries, scaled through and Muslims in the North had already accepted the development as a valid testimony of their numerical supremacy in the country. And here is why.

Out of 23377466, the total valid votes cast, 17275933 represent the voting strength of Muslims who divided their votes for the three Muslim candidates. No analysis of the results of this election can ignore the possibility of overlaps of votes between Muslims and Christians in favour of each of these three candidates. But since this was very minimal, the outcomes of the elections have solidly reflected the religious affiliation and sociopolitical orientation of the voting population. After all the mobilizations in churches and social media platforms, including the voluminous circulars disseminated to all chapels and chapters by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and sister bodies, the results of the election show that Peter Obi had merely scored 6101533, fewer than 27 per cent of the whole valid votes cast. 

Of course, a case cannot be made on fixed and exact statistics on Nigeria’s population through the results of polls, but some circumstances, like elections, are yet crucial in arriving at some useful hints.  A lot of factors have combined to contribute to the rapid increase of Muslims and give them a numerical edge over their counterparts.

The Muslims, who still retain the age-old culture of growing extended families, have a prevailing polygamous lifestyle and have not, to a large extent, assimilated to the western childbearing orientation. Research has shown that Muslim women have a higher fertility rate than non-Muslim women.100 According to the data of Nigeria‘s National Population Commission, as of 2008, birthrates per woman in the North West and the North East stood at 7.3 and 7.2, respectively, while in the South, it was less than 5 children per woman (available on https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/fr222/fr222.pdf).

Although democracy is a game of numbers and it depends on the principle of “the majority carries the votes”, Nigeria’s democracy has since 1999 been characterized by zoning and rotation between the two major regions and religions  (North and South and Islam and Christianity). And although many politicians have adopted zoning and rotation in the spirit of carrying everyone along, there are places where rotation based on faith is an impossible matter. For instance, Muslims in Gombe State account for about 75 per cent, yet the state has been electing a Muslim and Christian governor and deputy governor for over two decades.

In Kaduna State,  until 2019, when Governor Nasir El-Rufai chose a Muslim deputy governor, the state has been pairing a Muslim and Christian for these two powerful ranks. Other examples can be confidently cited, and it is Muslims who make the most concession. In states like Plateau and Benue, however, which although having a sizable population of Muslims ranging from 40 per cent to above in the case of the former and about 25 per cent in respect of the latter, no Muslim has ever been selected as deputy governor since the return of the present democratic dispensation in 1999. 

Politicians do not toy with the matter of votes irrespective of who the voter is, but the 2023 presidential election will go down in history as a solid testimony establishing the fact that Muslims can determine their political fate and can win the election of the highest political office in the land without the votes of the Christians. And going by the case study of Plateau and Benue states, one may be justified if he alleges that had it been that it was Christians who possessed similar numerical strength to Muslims, no one could guarantee that they would concede the position of vice president to the Muslims.

Whatever the case, it is now clear that propaganda and powerful and frequent presence in the media is not and can never be the practical elements with which to substantiate persistent claims of being half of Nigeria’s population. 

Despite the foregoing arguments, a question that may yet beg for an answer is, does the faith of a president necessarily ensure that his coreligionists enjoy the dividends of democracy better than those with whom he does not share his faith? No clear-cut answers can be supplied to this question. But the attitudes of some presidents since 1999, starting from Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’adu’a, Goodluck Jonathan and the outgoing Muhammadu Buhari, testify that some presidents may be too partial to members of their faith to the detriment of others. 

The Muslim-Muslim presidency may benefit Nigerian Muslims through the pleasure they will derive, which is inherent in sharing the same faith with the commander-in-chief and his deputy, but also in putting an end to the fact of their disputed majority. Meanwhile, it is likely that Christians, who will henceforth restrategize to launch further onslaughts on the presidency, and of course, consistently cry wolf where there may be none at all, will, in the long run, be the greatest beneficiaries of Tinubu’s leadership. The justification for this assertion is obvious; Christians recorded bigger gains from his two terms as a governor of Lagos State and perhaps even in the succeeding years.

And despite that it is now clear that there is a wide numerical margin between Muslims and Christians, this may not be radically reflected in the constitution of the presidential cabinet; out of the 40 (or thereabout) ministers that the new president will be appointing in the next few months, it will be hard if he will summon enough courage to appoint 11 Christian ministers which is the proportionate numerical representation of Christian population supplied to us by the 2023 presidential election.

During my childhood, I used to hear Muslims say that Saudi Arabia had a diplomatic policy of raising or lowering the flag of each country according to the faith of its president. I could remember vividly when after Muslims were tired of the Obasanjo administration and Umaru Musa Yarauda, the unfavourable candidate had defeated Buhari (the saint as of then) when some people, despite the dark outcomes of the election results, expressed delight and commented that at least Nigeria’s flag would be raised in Saudi Arabia after it had been dumped on the ground for about eight years. If this diplomatic principle in Saudi Arabia is true and still valid, Tinubu’s victory will now mean that Nigeria’s flag will at least spend twelve uninterrupted years flying in the Saudi sky, and only God knows when it may be lowered. 

In a different essay I penned more than a year ago. I argued that if the situation would warrant that Tinubu’s victory would only be guaranteed if he embraced Christianity, he might end up becoming a Christian just to realize his lifetime ambition. Based on the goings-on of the present political season and the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, it is also safe to argue that despite being admittedly a nominal Muslim as shown by his self-orchestrated  Fatiha recitational suicide, Tinubu had, by picking a Muslim as his running mate, audaciously accomplished what many Muslim politicians could never mull over not to talk of giving it a try.

Ismail wrote from Souss, Southern Morocco, and can be reached at ismailiiit18@gmail.com.

By Ahmad Deedat Zakari

The New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, have raised concerns over the alleged plot by Kano State Governor, Umar Ganduje, to rig the incoming gubernatorial election and supplementary election in the state.

The Chairman of Kano NNPP, Umar Haruna Doguwa, made the disclosure in a press statement on Sunday.

Mr Doguwa appealed to President Muhammadu Buhari, the International Community and the Security agencies to foil Ganduje’s plan.

He alleged that Ganduje’s interest goes beyond election rigging, but the total breakdown of law and order in the state is also among his evil machinations.

Part of the statement reads:

“The Kano State NNPP has noticed that some attempts are being made by unscrupulous elements in conjunction with some INEC officials to manipulate the collated results as we also noticed improper conduct by some INEC ad hoc staff. We, therefore, call on Presidency, security agencies, election observers, and the international community to beam their searchlight on INEC, especially on the concluded position to conduct supplementary election in the 15 affected polling units at Fagge. Any shift, either in a number of the polling units or continued cancellation of other polling units, will meet our stiff resistance.

“We are also aware that plans are being nursed and sponsored by the State government to cause a total break down of law and order in the state during the upcoming gubernatorial and state assembly elections. While we call on security agencies to take adequate measures on this, otherwise, we as a party and citizens of Kano State have the capacity to defend ourselves and our votes.”

By Uzair Adam Imam

Ahead of the March 11 governorship election, the Youth Society for the Prevention of Infectious Diseases and Social Vices (YOSPIS) has commended the FG’s cashless policy towards the election and the efforts of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in conducting one of the freest and fairest elections in the country.

The Executive Director of YOSPIS, Zainab Ahmad Nasir, who made the call on Thursday, said, “We would like to commend the National Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Federal Government for conducting a free, fair and credible Presidential election in Nigeria. We hope and pray the same will happen next week for gubernatorial elections across the country.

“The vote buying was hugely reduced due to the new naira policy implemented by the Federal Government. However, despite its readiness, the commission [INEC] failed to provide some materials on time, like cubicles, among other materials. Many polling units in the State experienced the faults of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), late arrival of INEC officials and materials, change of polling units, absence of cubicles, violence and overvoting in some areas.”

The Director also urged the general public to remain calm and peaceful during the elections process and report any suspicious act to the security personnel.

She said, “We hope the electorates will continue to remain calm, peaceful and confident in the electoral process and report any wrongdoing they witness.”

The Daily Reality gathered that the Presidential elections last week had left many families in deep mourning of their relatives who were burnt to ashes or sustained gunshot wounds on election day in Kano.

Several reports indicated how Alhassan Ado Doguwa, the Majority Leader of the House of Representative of Nigeria, had allegedly shot three people and instructed thugs to set ablaze the Campaign Office of the New Nigerian People Party (NNPP) in Doguwa Local Government Area of Kano.

The development had allegedly led to the death of no fewer than fifteen innocent souls who happened to be inside the building when it was set on fire.

Miss Nasir concluded that “We hope the perpetrators of this dastardly violence will be brought to book and face the consequences of their actions.”