Kwankwaso, Kwankwasiyya and Arewa beyond 2023
By Aminu Alhassan Kuba
During the 2023 general elections, Eng. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso contested for the office of the President Federal Republic of Nigeria under his newly registered party, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Unfortunately, he came a very distant 4th, winning just one State out of 36 plus the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, with a little over 1 million votes. His party also presented candidates for the governorship in a few other states apart from Kano, and the closest it came to winning apart from Kano was in Taraba.
Before the elections, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso had been engaged in a fierce political battle with his erstwhile political friend and deputy and present governor of Kano State, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje.
In 2015, Kwankwaso supported Ganduje to succeed him, but afterwards, trouble started. In a video I watched sometime in 2018, Ganduje accused Kwankwaso of envy. He said he did everything to respect and be loyal to his former boss, but it seemed Kwankwaso wanted everything. He accused Kwankwaso of wanting to be governor by proxy.
The fight between the two finally culminated in the now infamous inconclusive governorship election of 2019, where Kwankwaso tried to unseat Ganduje and replace him with his former PA, former commissioner, son-in-law, now governor-elect Eng. Abba Kabiru Yusuf. In that titanic battle for Kano, Ganduje emerged victorious.
The win led to other unfortunate matters, including the dethronement and banishment of the then Emir of Kano, His Royal Highness Muhammadu Sanusi II, the balkanisation of the Kano Emirate into five (5) smaller entities and the eventual appointment of two of Sanusi’s cousins among others as Emirs of Kano and Bichi, respectively.
In the succeeding four years, the political rivalry and fight between Kwankwaso and his old friend and political ally only intensified, culminating in the defeat of Ganduje’s candidate by same Kwankwaso’s son-in-law Eng. Abba Kabir Yusuf in the just concluded governorship election in the State.
Following NNPP’s victory, Kwankwaso’s supporters mainly and some commentators have sought to present Kwankwaso as some political wizard in Northern Nigeria. While this is true to a certain degree and circumstance, it is more accurate if Kano and not Northern Nigeria was the point of reference.
Kwankwaso has indeed managed to remain politically relevant compared to his Northern governor colleagues, alongside whom he contested and won elections to become governor in 1999. However, since his stated goal is not to become or produce the governor of Kano State but to lead Nigeria as President and Commander in Chief, the fairest comparison should be with those who have demonstrated similar ambition. And in this category, the most worthy comparison should be with the President-elect, His Excellency Asiwaju Bola Ahmad Tinubu, former Senator and Governor of Lagos State.
This comparison is even worthier considering that Lagos and Kano share similarities in population, political history, economy and commercial relevance to South and Northern Nigeria, respectively.
Let’s take a dive
In 1992 when Tinubu won a seat to become Senator of the Federal Republic, Kwankwaso won one in Nigeria’s House of Representatives and became its deputy speaker.
In 1999, both Tinubu and Kwankwaso contested and won to become governors of Lagos and Kano, respectively.
In 2003, while Tinubu was re-elected for a second term in office despite Obasanjo’s backstabbing and cynical takeover of the entire South West (except Lagos, of course), Kwankwaso lost his seat to a former permanent secretary, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, whom he had humiliated and relegated to a classroom teacher. Shekarau went on to serve two full terms as governor of Kano. Kwankwaso was eventually appointed Minister of Defence by Obasanjo.
In 2011 Kwankwaso returned to Kano for a second shot and won. He served the next four years, delivering spectacularly on the massive infrastructural transformation of Kano and investing heavily in education and social services. In addition, he provided scholarships to hundreds of Kano indigenes to undertake postgraduate studies around the world. By the end of his tenure in 2015, he easily transited to the Senate under the newly minted alliance party, the APC, with General Muhammadu Buhari’s CPC, Asiwaju’s AC and Atiku’s rebellious PDP G-5 governors.
In the same period, Tinubu chose not to run for office but worked to build a formidable political base with the South West as its fulcrum, installing governors in at least four of the region’s six States, many of them his former commissioners and going beyond to support former comrade Adam Oshiomhole to take Edo from the PDP.
In the same period, Tinubu not only built the Lagos-Ogun axis as Nigeria’s financial and economic powerhouse, but his former appointees also became a Vice-President, ministers, governors, chief executives of agencies and parastatals of the Federal Government.
Kwankwaso and his Kwankwasiyya movement have failed to go beyond the borders of Kano into neighbouring states like Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Bauchi, etc.
Notably, they have ruled Kano with his former deputy turned adversary for 16 years. Despite its industrial and commercial potential, Kano has failed to significantly grow its internal revenue base to compete favourably with its peers in the country. In a shocking manifestation of its leadership crisis, a civil service state like Kaduna now generates more internal revenue than Kano.
Again, in education, Kano tops the list of states with the most out-of-school children. This is where I find difficulty in understanding Kwankwaso’s education investment model of sending vast numbers of Doctors, Pharmacists, Nurses, Engineers and other university graduates outside Nigeria to undertake postgraduate studies while millions of children are roaming the streets wretched, hungry and illiterate.
While I do not begrudge the beneficiaries of his scholarship largesse, many of whom I know personally, I think the billions of naira public funds he spent in that endeavour would have been best spent in strengthening Kano’s capacity to educate its underprivileged poor urban and rural population.
Therefore, it’s now twenty-four years after Kwankwaso and Tinubu first became governors; Tinubu could comfortably lose Lagos but still win in the rest of Nigeria and become President; Kwankwaso could only win his Kano and ended up a distant 4th in the same presidential race. This is a testament to how far both have come.
To bolster the point further, while Kwankwaso has managed to build a competent and diverse political team across Nigeria, on the one hand, even in his beloved Kano and over 24 years, he could only find his son-in-law and former PA worthy of his trust to become governor.
Beyond Kano in the wider Arewa, he has failed to create a political support base. Instead, he is mainly seen as the head of a violence-prone, uncouth, fanatic and cult-like group willing to insult and denigrate anyone who dares to disagree with its methods. This is not without justification either. Evidence in utterances, actions and inactions from him, his closest lieutenants and supporters that they are willing to use violence to achieve political ends when push comes to shove.
The behaviour of his supporters after the governorship election in Kano in which his candidate was declared the winner and his silence speak volumes. After attacking and burning down Rarara’s property within the Kano metropolis, no word of condemnation or reproach came from the Madugu [leader] or this party.
Despite Kwankwaso’s failings, however, at this moment of Nigeria’s political journey, Arewa needs a viable opposition to put the APC-led government on its feet from May 29th this year. And Kwankwaso’s NNPP, with a base in Kano, could position itself as a viable platform for the role. From the results of both Presidential and Governorship elections so far declared and its history in this part of Nigeria, PDP can no longer pose a serious challenge to the ruling APC.
Now practically wiped out of the North East, North West and North Central except in some minority enclaves like Taraba and Plateau and unfortunate governance failure examples like Zamfara and possibly Adamawa, PDP is practically dead. In Bauchi and Adamawa (maybe), I don’t see PDP surviving beyond 2027. All these added that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, its leading financier, is now both old and tired. A Kwankwaso-led NNPP could therefore become a viable alternative for the greater North.
But for NNPP and Kwankwaso to take up this role, I suggest they need to rebrand; Kwankwaso needs to convince the rest of Arewa and Nigeria that his movement can grow beyond the personality cult Kwankwasiyya is now.
He must also convince the rest of Arewa and Nigeria that Kwankwasiyya is not a violence-prone provincial cult that quickly resorts to arson and looting at the slightest opportunity. Finally, he must convince the rest of Nigeria that when his interests clash with that of the State, that of the State will take precedence and that he is willing and able to reign in his supporters.
Aminu writes from Kaduna and can be reached via aminukuba@yahoo.com.
