USSR

By Sulaiman Badamasi (Mahir)

Russia of today is not the same as Russia yesterday. Russia used to be the Soviet Union, a superpower that sometimes acted with the West. The war of 1973, when the Zionists wanted both sides of the conflict taken to a draw and in 1954when Russia (Soviet Union) transferred the Crimean Oblast to Ukraine have said it all. Now, it is a post-Soviet Union Russia who toiled when the Soviet Union sagged, but within the breath-span of twenty-something years has grown now to a grandeur position.

The Western world has been ruling over humankind for the past 300 years or more, changing regimes worldwide, especially in the south and central America, which the famous Monroe Doctrine described as “America’s Backyard”. The West has been changing regimes after regimes all over the region. But have we ever asked why they have never changed the regime in Venezuela? America has done everything it could to change the Venezuelan government but to no avail because this can only be achieved through military intervention, and any move of such would mean facing Russia. They do not want to confront Russia. NOBODY WANT TO FACE RUSSIA because Russia is not Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Palestine, and of course, not Iraq.

What seemed to have convinced the world further to accept Russia’s predatory position was the tremendously dangerous step it took to intervene in Syria. This could have led to a nuclear war. Russia also took the world by surprise in 2014 when it took over or took back(?) Crimea in just two weeks. It seems like Russia is defeating the West in silence and stylishly repositioning itself back to the Soviet Union’s throne.

For the West to reduce the margin, it swiftly paid back with a regime change in Ukraine in 2014 in what was termed as “The Revolution of Dignity”, which saw the impeachment/replacement of the then Ukrainian (of course Russian loyalist) elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, and Petro Poroshenko (pro-West) became the president, who immediately began with leading the Russo-Ukrainian war in February 2014.

After three months, he forbade any cooperation with Russia in the military sphere and later signed the “Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement in June 2014.” Five months later, in president Poroshenko’s speech to the new parliament in November 2014, Poroshenko stated, “we’ve decided to return to the course of NATO integration” because “the nonalignment status of Ukraine proclaimed in 2010 couldn’t guarantee our security and territorial integrity”. Russia perceived all these, coupled with the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych, as a series of threats right at its closest border.  

Why does Russia detest/is against/is afraid of Ukraine’s alignment with NATO?

If Ukraine becomes a NATO member state, then Russia would have NATO on its very border, which means it will have its military bases a few distances away from Russian borders, where missiles could hit Moscow in minutes. Hence Russia does not seem to accept this security option. It could be said that Russia does not want to invade Ukraine because a full invasion MIGHT provoke a military response from the West (only time could tell, though). But certainly, all parties involved (Russia, Ukraine, and the West) hope the chaos ends through diplomatic means rather than war. Maybe Russia has a military strike as the only option for now?

Territorial control and elimination of perceived possible dangers around borders have become a norm or a widely practised approach by states nations. Let us digest in the following to shade more light:

Cuban Missile Crisis/Missile Scare: when the Soviet Union started installing nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1961 after reaching an agreement with Fidel Castro of Cuba, the Kennedy administration decided that this was too big a security threat to be contained. They put a “quarantine” (a station where weaponry logistics were searched) so that no nuclear missile could be shipped and demanded that all missiles in Cuba be taken back to the Soviet Union.

Syria and Israel: with Russia and Iran as Syrian friends and Israel sitting just 569.17 kilometres away from the Syrian border, it is not a surprise if Israel and her friends (America, Saudi, and Turkey) feel threatened or expect that the worst happens from Israel’s neighbourhood. The military campaign that aimed at toppling the Russia and Iran backed Assad’s government by the Saudi, Turkish and American backed rebel group, which began in March 2011 as an anti-government protest and later escalated to a full-scale war, could be understood as an effort to eliminate an enemy’s friend whose territory can be used to attack an immediate neighbour. Could America and Saudi afford to lose Israel?

Muslim Brotherhood and Israel: when Mohammed Morsi (may Allah have mercy on him) was sworn in as the first democratically elected president of Egypt on 30^th June 2012, he expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s 1979 policy which declared that it stands as a mediator between Israel and Palestine and determined to reset his country’s orientation to one of active support, not for a ‘self-governing authority and ‘autonomy’ in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, but the attainment of an independent sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital and the right of the Palestinian refugees to return.

In Morsi’s one year in office before his removal through a coup d’etat, he ordered the Egyptian authorities to open the Rafah Crossing, the only gateway that connects Palestinians to the outside world. This means Palestinians can travel any time without really passing through strict measures imposed on them by the Israeli government, and different kinds of support could reach them without obstacles. Trade began to flourish between Palestine and Egypt. The Israeli siege on the Palestinian land was eased. He became the first Egyptian president to declare rejection of Israel’s assault on Palestine since 1979. Israel and her friends felt threatened by the closest neighbour, and the result was his forceful ouster, imprisonment, the unjust killing of his supporters. The coup that ended Morsi’s regime has not been justified yet. Why was it done then? To eliminate a nearby perceived enemy.

Saudi and Houthi: the Houthi rebel group, which champions Yemen’s Zaidi Shia followers, took over Sana’a in 2014 and forced the then Yemeni president, Abdurrabbu Mansur Hadi, in March 2015, to flee the country. To many people, “a rebel group has taken over Yemen,” yet to Saudi and her allies, “Iran has succeeded in extending its proxy-war/proxy influence to the Saudi border.” There is no need to emphasise that implication on Saudi, thanks to the firing of ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia and UAE. Swiftly came a fierce joint reaction from Saudi-led coalition of eight(?) countries with logistics and intelligence support from America and France with Iran backing the Houthi rebels leading to the ongoing multilateral civil war.

Turkey and ISIS in Iraq: another interesting episode in the quest to defy near-border threats is having Turkey, a NATO member-state, fighting ISIS in Syria while ignoring the danger that the same ISIS poses in Iraq. Turkey has so far chosen to sit out the war to allow ISIS to fight the Kurdish militia group in Iraq. Turkey considers the Kurdish militia who craves a breakup to carve out its own country, Kurdistan, a more harmful enemy. Kurdistan encompasses southeastern Turkey (Northern Kurdistan), northern Iraq (Southern Kurdistan), northwestern Iran (Eastern Kurdistan), and northern Syria (Western Kurdistan). Some definitions also include parts of southern Transcaucasia. Certain Kurdish nationalist organisations seek to create an independent nation-state consisting of some or all of these areas with a Kurdish majority, while others campaign for greater autonomy within the existing national boundaries. Do you see? The same struggle to protect territorial integrity is seen at its peak here.

Iraq invasion and Iran: this is the same reason that encouraged Iran’s interest in Iraq after the US and its allies removed and killed Saddam Hussein. Despite having a not-so-friendly relationship with the West, Iran was in total support of the strike against Iraq (Saddam) in March 2003 when the US, under Gorge W. Bush, led a coalition of the UK, Poland, and Australia to invade Iraq.

This has remained part of history for centuries and means that Russia is not necessarily fighting Ukraine as Ukraine but trying to send a clear signal to whoever wants to near her border in any form of disguise.

Will the war be taken further? I do not think Russia could be smart enough to launch a full-scale war yet. However, if it continues, there is a slim chance of having NATO respond militarily, which could further lead to an unimaginable end. It is to the world’s knowledge that if external forces intervene to support Ukraine, it could mean facing Russia, China, North Korea, Serbia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Belarus, etc.

Are we about to witness another World War? We pray for the best.

Sulaiman Badamasi (Mahir) sent this article via sulaimanmahir@gmail.com.

By Aminu Rabiu Kano

The history of Afghanistan is one characterized by epic tragedy. The narrative of the “Afghan problem” has been diverse, with each actor telling their side of the story in a bid to justify their action or inaction as the case may be. A poor, landlocked Afghanistan is one of the few countries in the world which events happening in and around it have been dominating the headlines for decades. Both the mainstream and social media are obsessed with happenings in the country. Indeed, even the layman on the street is more or less interested in the Afghan problem to the extent that virtually everyone can say one or two things about it. The question that follows, therefore, is, why is the world interested in happenings in Afghanistan? In other words, why are developments in Afghanistan capable of generating reactions around the world? Also, why have the superpowers in history found it necessary to invade Afghanistan?

To answer the above questions, we must begin by establishing the geopolitical relevance of Afghanistan on the world map. Afghanistan is doubtlessly strategically located. It is at the crossroads of Central and South Asia. It borders Pakistan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It is predominantly mountainous and inhabited by approximately 32 million people – nearly 45% of whom speak the Pashtun language. Moreover, the Afghan population is primarily Muslim. This reason, coupled with the fact that it borders Iran, Afghanistan is sometimes seen as a part of the “Wider Middle East.”

From the list of the countries bordering Afghanistan, one will realize the geographical importance of Afghanistan in the international political environment. Of the five countries that bordered it, Iran and China stand out. However, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan had been part of the former Soviet Union that fell apart in the 1990s. This implies that Afghanistan has been a neighbour to glorious powers both in the past and present.

Therefore, it was invaded severally by several empires across ages due to its essential, strategic location. For example, Alexander The Great of the Macedonian empire invaded Afghanistan in 330 BC as part of the war against Persia. Alexander saw that he could only get the Persian empire subdued by invading Afghanistan. Similarly, foreign powers such as the Persian Empires, the Mongol Empire led by Khan Ghengis, the Mughal Empire, the Timurid Empire, the Rashidun Caliphate, and the Sikh Empire conquered Afghanistan.

Little wonder, Afghanistan, even in the modern era, grappled with yet other rounds of invasions, but this time around by the “superpowers”. The superpowers being the USA and the USSR. During the cold war, these superpowers used Afghanistan, among other countries, to test their military, economic and political powers. It all started when, in April 1978, the People Democratic Party of Afghanistan overthrew the Afghanistan government. Nur Muhammad Taraki, secretary of the PDPA, became president of Afghanistan. But Taraki’s government was communist in orientation and enacted some policies that were not well received by the masses. Thus, the masses hated government, and, as a result, Taraki was overthrown by Hafizullah Amin in September 1979. Despite the change of government from Taraki to Amin, opposition to communist rule continued even under Amin. In December 1979, Amin was shot and replaced by Babrak Kamal, who was in exile in Moscow. Kamal’s government heavily relied on the Soviet military for support and protection against his vast opponents.

Opposition to the communist government continued, which prompted the USSR to invade Afghanistan, deploying more than 50,000 soldiers. This occupation was even met by fierce resistance by Afghans, who have joined the Mujahedeen – a guerilla movement that proclaimed to be fighting anti-Islamic forces in Muslim lands. The Mujahedeen would later be referred to as the “Taliban”. The Taliban was formed by Mullah Muhammad Umar, who recruited young Muslim students from Afghanistan and neighbouring Pakistan to fight the Soviet Military. Over the next ten years, hundreds of thousands of lives were lost. In the end, the Soviet military was forced to withdraw from Afghanistan.

However, the mujahedeen (or the Taliban, if you like) did not fight the war alone: they were heavily supported, armed and financed by the USA, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. USA was mainly instrumental in its support to the Taliban because it feared that if the USSR succeeded in occupying Afghanistan, its national interests would be threatened. In fact, the US’s intervention was informed by the need to resist the advance of what former President Reagan called the “evil vampire”. Then, the two superpowers – the USA and USSR – were in the heat of the cold war. Therefore, the US saw that if the Soviet Union succeeded in implanting communist rule in Afghanistan, the domino theory would materialize. This means that the USSR would also succeed in spreading communist ideology into those countries neighbouring Afghanistan. Most Fundamentally, by gaining the control of the Middle East, the USSR would determine oil and gas supply to the US and its allies in the West. This meant that the Soviets could do great harm to the US economy and those of its allies by cutting off the oil supply since oil was a vital product so crucial that military and industrial operations heavily depended on it.

After the withdrawal of the Soviet military from Afghanistan, the Taliban formed an Islamic government. Osama Bin Laden – a Saudi citizen – was instrumental in fighting the Soviet army. As the son of a rich and influential citizen in Saudi Arabia, Osama contributed substantial financial resources to the Afghanistan war that lasted for ten years. He later formed Al-Qaeda, which was said to be a terrorist movement determined to liberate the Muslim land from Western influence. On 11 September 2001, 4 aeroplanes were hijacked by, allegedly, the Al-Qaeda. Two were flown to the Twin Towers housing the World Trade Centre, one flown to the Pentagon and the other to Pennsylvania. As a result, more than 5000 people lost their lives, and critical government infrastructures were destroyed.

The US was quick to blame Osama’s Al-Qaeda for the tragic 9/11 event. The US President George Bush soon declared war on terror. The war was first on Afghanistan, which led to the overthrow of the Taliban government. After that, the American forces established a democratic government with its foundation in and allegiance to American imperialism. However, after 20 years of occupation, the Taliban expediently returned to power when the US forces willingly decided to withdraw from Afghanistan.

From the foregoing, three lessons can be learned. One, Afghans have a genetic history of resistance to foreign domination. Second, Afghanistan is a strategic country that played an important part in the Great Game power struggles for centuries. Finally, it is evident from the above that Afghanistan’s series of invasions was no end in itself, but a means to an end. Put it more succinctly, Afghanistan is a gateway for foreign powers. Its invasion would allow the superpowers to dominate the Asian continent, including the oil-rich Arab world. Overall, Afghanistan, despite its myriad of aggression by foreign superpowers, is still in existence. It survives!

Aminu Rabiu Kano is a political and public affairs analyst. He can be reached via 08062669232.