South-South

Ahmadu Shehu, PhD.

As we continue the inconvenient conversation on Biafra and what it portends for the Southeast and our country, I find the need to clarify some insinuations raised in the troupes of comments and rejoinders that trailed my previous articles. But, before proceeding, I must commend many southeasterners for their dispassionate contributions and insightful perspectives.

However, although critical, some of the comments have missed salient truths that need further explanation. This will help our generation avoid past mistakes committed mostly by overzealous politicians, leading to avoidable wars and near-disintegration of our dear country.

There is this illusion that conflates southern Nigeria, particularly the Niger Delta, with the Southeast or “Biafra”. The truth is that the people of the Niger Delta region (let alone the southwest) do not align with the Southeast in politics and administration. For the information of our youth, the first secessionist war in Nigeria was fought between Niger Delta activists under the leadership of Isaac Adaka Boro and the Nigerian forces led by Chumeka Ojukwu, who later became a secessionist himself.

The three phases of Ojukwu’s career: from a defender of Nigeria’s unity at the battlefield to a rebel against his own country and later a senator and presidential candidate for the very country he fought to disintegrate should tell discerning minds that there are many faces to the idea of Biafra, none of which is the common interest of the Igbo people.

Please permit me to be blunter here. As far as our contemporary political and economic realities are concerned, the Southeast is only hiding behind the shadows of other regions in the south to claim prosperity. In other words, when our Igbo brothers call the northerners parasites, lazy or Abuja-dependent, they are actually borrowing the glory of the Niger Delta, and probably Lagos State, to abuse others. Because in reality, the contributions of the Southeast in the so-called feeding the nation is not as significant as they may like us to believe.

If you doubt this, let’s ask a few questions on the most critical sectors of the Nigerian economy. Since 90% of Nigeria’s foreign income depends on crude oil, what is the contribution of the Southeast in the two million barrels Nigeria makes per day? Very little is the answer. For, out of the nine oil-bearing states in Nigeria, Imo and Abia are the only southeastern states, accounting for an abysmal 1.6% and 0.68% of the total crude oil produced in the country. This is very negligible, as far as the numbers in this sector are concerned.

The Nigerian GDP, which is the bedrock of the economy and the source of non-oil revenue, primarily comes from agriculture. What is the contribution of the Southeast to agricultural production? The numbers are even more insignificant here. It is unfortunate that except for the oil-spilt Ogoni land, the Southeast is Nigeria’s least agriculturally viable region. Most states and local councils in the Southeast are not food sufficient.

By the nature of its geography, the Southeast sits on one of the country’s most infertile, erosion-prone lands. It is also the smallest and most overpopulated region leading to congestion and resource scarcity. It is no coincidence, therefore, that no one buys farm produce from there. Conversely, we see tons of raw food and livestock being transported daily to feed the region.

Some people may argue that the economic strength of the Southeast lies in its profoundly robust revenue base generated from industries and MSEs. They further postulate that the region contributes the most to the Nigerian revenue basket, albeit without evidence. Well, all the regions of the federation contribute their fair share to the federation tax revenue. However, the evidence available proves that the Southeast is neither the highest contributor nor is it self-reliant.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Southwest and South-South have the highest IGR per capita, and the Southeast is at par with North-Central, followed by Northwest and Northeast. None of the five southeastern states appears close to the top ten high revenue-generating states. Like any other northern state, none of the southeastern states – despite the 12% derivation funds – is wealthy enough to pay salaries without the federation account. Thus, one may ask: what kind of entrepreneurship and economic prosperity we are talking about here?

The fallacy behind the overestimated economic contribution of the Southeast is just one of the many problems. For instance, more than once, our country’s unity and cohesion are put on dangerous edges, thanks to the secessionist tendencies of the Southeast. Instead of forging ahead and pursuing alliances and friendships countrywide, the region and some of its people have continued on the path of division and segregation. The hatred propagated against anything and anyone perceived to be anti-Biafra has been phenomenal.

Furthermore, the Southeast is the main culprit in destroying Nigeria’s image and dignity in the international community. The Nigerian passport, which commanded respect a few decades ago, has become a suspect document worldwide. This unfortunate degradation of national identity and pride is the handwork of Nigerian drug pushers, physical and internet scammers, illegal migrants and human traffickers, most of whom are known to be southeasterners.

The same people are dealers and distributors of fake, contraband medications and drugs in all the nooks and crannies of this country, particularly in the North. This has always been an open secret and has been made even more vividly evident by the recent successes of the Nigerian Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA). The dangers these portend to our national development and global recognition is unquantifiable.

Therefore, if the above is true, claiming that the North is a mere burden on the Nigerian federation is absurd. For some, this might be based on ignorance, while for others, it is a deliberate attempt to malign and stereotype the region for reasons best known to the perpetrators of these dangerous narratives. But, whatever the motive is, we must recognize that all the federating units cause shared burdens to our national growth and development.

Since the North’s limitations and other regions have been overstretched in our national discourse, I believe it is equally important to remind our brothers in the Southeast that they are no less a burden than the other regions. As Nigerians, we should prepare to share both the positive and negative consequences of the actions and inactions of our fellow citizens. But, this is only possible when all parties acknowledge their limitations and are ready to embrace one another. Nigerians are siblings of a single family that are more alike than different. The earlier we accept this truth, the better.

Dr Ahmadu Shehu is a nomad cum herdsman, an Assistant Professor at the American University of Nigeria, Yola, and is passionate about the Nigerian project.

By Mohammed Zayyad

The debate that the presidency moves to the South in 2023 has gained momentum. Also, presidential hopefuls from the North, like Atiku Abukar, Sule Lamido, Senator Bala Mohammed, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, are also effectively playing their games.

The calls for power to shift to the South have further triggered permutations and realignments in the polity. Both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressive Congress (APC) have strong candidates from the South. But these candidates have their respective baggage, and the parties have internal squabbles that must be resolved.

The APC has its stronghold in the Northwest, Southwest, Northeast and Northcentral – four of the nation’s six geopolitical zones. The PDP has strong structures in the six zones with a stronghold in the Southeast and Southsouth. However, the APC has moved into the Southeast in full force. Before the 2015 elections, nobody had ever thought that the APC would someday have even a ward councillor in the Southeast. But, today, the party has two state governors, senators, House of Representatives members, state house of assembly members, local council chairmen, councillors and formidable party structures in all the five southeastern states.

Come 2023, the APC has no reasons to retain power in the North, but there is strong politicking by some governors and other bigwigs to maintain power. This will mean the APC contravening the unwritten agreement between the North and the South on power rotation. In any case, the APC does not have a strong presidential candidate from the North. This is a big plus to the presidential hopefuls from the South, or Southeast, in particular. Furthermore, the Southeast has a strong case to present based on a plank that the Southeast is the only geopolitical zone in the South that has not produced a President or vice president on any political party platform since 1999.

If APC picks its presidential candidate from the South, especially Southwest, the PDP may attempt to outwit this by looking to the North for its presidential candidate. This, as well, will put the  PDP in a catch-22 situation on how to explain this to the South, especially the Southeast and the South-South, why the North again, after eight years of the North being in power.

PDP has good candidates in their own ‘rights’ from the Southeast and South-South. Enugu State Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Peter Obi from Southeast and Governor Nyesom Wike from the South-South. Obi does not have friends in the North and has never tried to pull an appeal from the region, directly or by proxy.  His deportation of other Nigerians to their states when he was governor of Anambra state was used against him in the North during the 2019 campaign, and it worked.

For Wike, his words, ‘Rivers is a Christian state’ will be used against him in the North like Governor El-Rufai’s Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna can be used against him (El-Rufai). This is how local politics impact a candidate’s wider political opportunities. Some young people in the north are also campaigning for  Enugu State Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi. Still, the IPOB issue will be a significant hindrance in the North, but it is not insurmountable. Advocates of secession appear not to understand Nigeria. There are massive inter-marriage, friendships, business links and political alliances, among other ties, between many northerners and many Igbos.

Some nationalistic politicians from the Southeast have started to convince other Nigerians to support the region to produce the Nigeria president of Southeast extraction in 2023.  The bigwigs’ forefront presidential hopefuls are Governor David Umahi,  Orji Uzor Kalu, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Rochas Okorocha, Chris Baywood Ibe, Ken Nnamani, Minister of State for Education, Dr Chinedu Nwajiuba, Sen Osita Izunaso and many others. Of course, these politicians have their political baggage and controversies. However, people like Chris Baywood Ibe are new faces without any political baggage and controversy-free.

A thorough understanding of how Nigerian politics works is paramount in achieving the political goals of a group, a region, or individuals. There are so many conflicting interests in Nigeria. Still, there are always windows for alliances, give-and-take, a hand of friendship, and convincing others to support a particular political cause or an individual’s.

For the 2023 presidency, the Southeast should present a candidate with a new face, no controversies, no political baggage and who has friends and is well-known across the Niger. For both the APC and the PDP, it will be an opportunity to reunite Nigeria and rekindle the historical political alliance between the north and the southeast while maintaining the partys’ current national. The Igbo presidency is possible through the spirit of one Nigeria.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja. He can be reached via zaymohd@yahoo.com.