Senator Aisha Binani

By Zayyad I. Muhammad 

The legal battle for the Adamawa governorship seat has come to an end with the Supreme Court’s judgement of January 10th and 31st, 2024, with Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri triumphant over both the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Dr Umar Ardo, and the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate, Aishatu Dahiru Binani.

The fabric of Adamawa peace was never shaken, like when the suspended Adamawa INEC Residents Electoral Commissioner (REC), Barrister Ari Hudu, unilaterally, based on a mutilated ordinary paper with jotted results, announced Aishatu Binani as the winner of the April 15th, 2023, gubernatorial rerun election. However, two factors prevented a social disorder in Adamawa state:  the incumbent governor, Ahmadu Fintiri, maintained composure and calmness and acted responsibly, and the public refrained from being provoked. Additionally, well-meaning stakeholders advocated for peace and urged for the correct procedures and processes to be followed.

Moreover, the Supreme Court has now condemned Hudu’s actions, labelling them as irresponsible and criminal. In response, Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri has expressed his government’s intention to prosecute Hudu’s associates.

Now that Governor Fintiri has solidified his legal authority over his mandate, the focus will automatically shift towards governance rather than politics. This entails continuing to implement policies, deliver on campaign promises, address the people’s needs, and ensure the efficient administration of the state.

The political landscape in Adamawa has shifted significantly from its previous trajectory. Since 2003, the state has been characterised by a divide between “Abuja politicians” and “home politicians.” Governors have often found themselves distracted by the so-called “Abuja politicians,” whose political survival and pocket interests rely on fostering fabricated or genuine disagreements between the sitting governor and individuals holding positions at the centre.

Now that Governor Fintiri is having no fights or disagreements with anyone. He is enjoying a harmonious relationship with key figures in Abuja, such as the NSA, Nuhu Ribadu, and Minister of Education Tahir Mamman, as well as several APC stakeholders. The time has come to put an end to any efforts to sow discord and unnecessary distractions.

Additionally, all PDP stakeholders stood steadfastly with Governor Fintiri throughout the election period and the prolonged legal battles. Notable figures include PDP state chairman Barr A. T. Shehu, State Organising Secretary Hamza Madagali, Deputy National Treasurer Adamu Kamale, and stakeholders like Alh Musa Garba, Stephen Maduwa, Buba Shafani, and many more. On the government side, the Deputy Governor, SSG, and Chief of Staff demonstrated exemplary leadership in supporting the administration’s success in new frontiers.

With the Supreme Court’s verdict, it’s now time for development in Adamawa. Over the next three years and four months, Governor Fintiri will focus on governance to sustain progress in infrastructure and human capital and maintain a peaceful environment. Meanwhile, for Senator Aisha Binani, it’s an opportunity for reflection on her hirthetor’s good public image that brought her to where she is and to ‘clean’ her politics from the stains of Hudu’s irresponsible and criminal actions as labelled by the Supreme Court.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.

By Zayyad I. Muhammad

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed Saturday, April 15th, 2023, as the day for the Adamawa state governorship supplementary election in 69 polling units across the state. Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri is going into the supplementary election with a margin lead of 31,249 votes. Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed Binani needs a miraculous miracle to dilute this margin from the 37,706 expected votes in the 69 polling units where the supplementary election will be conducted. Though miracles, they say, do happen!

Despite the opened anti-party she faced from some members and executives of her party. Her disregard for the crucial aspect of politics – collaborations with everybody and anybody, plus her failure to send an olive branch to some of the APC governorship aspirants who lost to her during the APC governorship primaries, including the indifference to her candidacy exhibited by some stakeholders of the Adamawa APC, Binani has proved a point- Binani shook Governor Fintiri in a way he never expected.

Candidate Fintiri came to the March 18 governorship election over-confident but with poor calculations and with so many off-the-shelves strategies. For instance, he thought that his 2019 bloc vote was still intact, but he was wrong- many people in the bloc vote have realised that they’ve nothing to gain from it- it was mainly Fintiri’s ‘cousins’ and close associates who mostly enjoy the goodies meant for the bloc vote. Fintiri’s second mistake was the poor deployment of logistics – this is obvious from how he performed in the Adamawa North Senatorial District- his primary constituency- Fintiri got only 53% of votes, losing 3 of the 5 LGAs. Though Binani also performed poorly at her central zone- she got only 45% of the total votes – winning only 3 of the 7 LGAs.

When the controversial Fufore LGA result was announced, Gov was pictured celebrating victory with his Aides. However, a few minutes later, when the final result was declared inconclusive – again Fintiri was pictured in a deflated mode. Students of politics and history should study INEC’s declaration of Adamawa 2019 and 2023 governorship elections as inconclusive relative to the man ‘ Ahamdu Umaru Fintiri’- it always brings out ‘the punctured him’. In 2019 when the election was declared inconclusive, Fintiri ran to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar for help and equality in 2023.

When his re-election was also declared inconclusive, Fintiri returned to Atiku for another help. In fact, in 2019, former governor Boni Haruna saved the day for Fintiri. In a press conference, Boni highlighted the difference and the importance of registered voters and PVC collected, which today has become a working document for all political parties and INEC itself.

 Fintiri is a man that often boasts that he is a man of great political sagacity, he often claims to have retired many people or has ‘shaved’ their heads from politics, but whenever he is faced with an intricate political situation, he suddenly becomes punctured and runs to same people for help.

As earlier mentioned, Binani needs a miracle, or the 8th wonder of the world, to upstage Fintiri’s 31,249 votes lead from a pool of just 37,706 votes. Nevertheless, whoever wins the 2023 Adamawa governorship election, will face a big legal tussle; that’s why people were shocked when Fintiri and his convoy were seen returning from Fufore LGAs, in the name of collection results to the state collation centre. It is simply bizarre- when a contender in an election turns himself into the electoral and collation officer.

 Politics is about interest and survival – the APC members and executive who worked against Binani – did it to survive- For the executive to protect their seat, while for some of the stakeholders- it is about 2027 calculation if there is an incumbent governor from the APC, the ticket is closed for eight years. And supporting Fintiri is also another of their calculations. If he wins, he will leave the scene after four years. Thus, 2027 will be free for all.

For some of the prominent PDP stakeholders who were also indifferent to Fintiri’s candidature, they did it to remind Fintiri that ‘big’ is ‘big’- Fintiri went to the election almost solo with his lieutenants, but he could not get an outright victory but managed an underdog-like inconclusive win.

 In conclusion, Governor Fintiri has the brightest chance of coasting to victory in the April 15th supplementary election, but he’s the biggest ‘loser’ in this election- his political might has been reduced to its lowest. He now knows that going to the Senate in 2027 is not as easy as he thought, and bringing a successor from the PDP is not in his absolute control. Another loser is the APC and some of its executives that opened antiparty – Adamawa APC remains fragmented for some time to come- this will hunt the party in the next cycle of elections, as pay-back-time will be the order of the day in the party for many years to come.

Binani, on the other hand, her chance of winning the election is near zero, but she is one of the biggest winners in the election – despite little support from her party in the state and open anti-party from some party executives, she made points and strong political statements. Another winner of this election is some PDP stakeholders and the PDP itself- this election has removed them from any shackle – had it been that Fintiri had a smooth ride; won the election with a significant margin effortlessly, he would attempted to ride on anybody in Adamawa politics in his second term.

 Zayyad I. Muhammad writes Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.

By Mohammed Kabir Ibrahim

The March 18, 2023, governorship election in Adamawa State was unarguably the tightest-ever contested race in the history of the state. The incumbent governor, Ahmadu Fintiri, was up against a formidable challenger, Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed (popularly known as Binani), a former member of the House of Representatives and the current senator representing Adamawa Central Senatorial District.

The election was shaped to a large extent by ethnoreligious sentiment. While most Christians and ethnic minorities voted for the governor, most Hausa-Fulani/Muslims voted for Binani. Although the election was declared inconclusive, Binani committed avoidable mistakes that denied her the chance for a landslide victory.

Disrespect for elders was Binani’s first mistake. Shortly after the APC primaries that saw her defeat prominent politicians, including a former governor, Jibrilla Bindow, and former EFCC chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, some concerned Adamawa elders prevailed on Binani to reach out to those who lost the primaries for their cooperation and support towards winning the general election. Rather than heeding their elderly sound counsel, Binani was said to have exhibited a high level of arrogance and dismissed them as “Ribadu’s errand boys”. The elders took offence and refrained from making any further reconciliatory efforts. This singular display of hubris emboldened her opponents to teach her political lessons. While former Governor Bindow, alongside thousands of his supporters, dumped the APC for PDP, the former EFCC boss, Ribadu, opted to challenge the nomination process at the court.

Binani’s second mistake was populating her strategic campaign team with an army of incompetent, immature and belligerent youth under the aegis of “Binani Ambassadors”. These young people, some of whom are still fresh students in universities and colleges, have become her veritable political strategists. They dished out spurious propaganda and disparaged anyone who challenged Binani’s politics. The brazen manner in which the Binani Ambassadors demonised and denigrated Binani’s challengers on various social media platforms without restraint contributed to anti-party activities, particularly among thousands of Ribadu supporters during the governorship elections.

The Binani Ambassadors also misled her into believing that she had sufficient grassroots support and, as such, she didn’t need the backing of APC stalwarts in the state. The case of Fufore Local Government Area is a glaring example where Binani and her incompetent strategists bypassed and excluded renowned APC stalwarts and appointed lightweight politicians to coordinate her campaign.

Preference for political vendetta against perceived political opponents over reconciliation and cooperation preparatory to the all-important general election was Binani’s third political mistake. Perhaps acting on the ill-advised strategy of the insecure Binani Ambassadors, Binani initiated and pursued indiscriminate infighting between her loyalists and anybody loyal to Bindow or Ribadu within the Adamawa APC. The obsequiousness of the former state chairman of the party, Alhaji Ibrahim Bilal, further aggravated the intra-party conflicts. It had reached a point where the party leadership in the state got fed up and showed Alhaji Bilal the exit door.

Binani’s seemingly conceited and domineering nature is another mistake that cost her a sweeping victory at the end of the March 18 election and may likely work against her at the forthcoming supplementary polls. Those who know her say she always insists on having her way at all costs, even when her actions are supposedly unreasonable. For example, she allegedly stormed Ribadu Ward in Fufore Local Government Area and unilaterally sacked duly elected ward officials of the party. A senior ward official made several pleas for reconciliation and cooperation, but Binani was said to have dismissed his overtures and challenged him to go to court. A cursory look at the results from IREV shows that she narrowly won the Ribadu Ward, a largely Hausa-Fulani domain that could have given her an edged advantage.

Binani also shot herself in the foot when she started an unwarranted battle against the party officials at her Ward in Yola South Local Government Area. She was alleged to have orchestrated the suspension of some key party officials loyal to Ribadu, although her antics were not successful. Binani’s relentless pursuit of political vendetta did not stop at the state level. She was also said to be clandestinely fighting with the loyalists of the first lady, Aisha Buhari and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha. Perhaps that explains why Mrs. Buhari’s brother, Mahmood Halilu, was seen alongside Governor Fintiri at the residence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar during a press conference calling for the declaration of the election results after several delays. Even most recently, there are speculations that Binani is behind the suspension of the SGF.

Regardless of the outcome of the yet-to-be-scheduled supplementary election, Binani has succeeded in creating the impression that she is an authoritarian who will give no room for the opposition if, by the rarest coincidence, she becomes Nigeria’s first democratically elected female governor.

On the other hand, her philanthropic initiatives, massive support of women voters, ethnoreligious sentiment, and the fact that she hails from the central zone, which has the highest concentration of voters in the state, contributed in large measures to her impressive performance at the March 18, 2023 polls. Winning the cooperation and support of her party stalwarts would have closed the insignificant margin and propelled her to a landslide victory. As it stands now, Binani would need a miracle to win over 35,000 votes from the mere 37,000 available to defeat Governor Fintiri and become Nigeria’s first elected female governor.

Mohammed Kabir Ibrahim wrote from Kaduna and can be reached via mohammedkabir.ibrahim@gmail.com.