Economy

By Nasiru Ibrahim 

Nigeria’s debt situation has become more confusing and concerning in recent years. After removing fuel subsidies, which had always been used to justify heavy borrowing, many expected a change in direction. But surprisingly, debt has continued to rise—and sharply. 

In less than two years, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has added over ₦62 trillion to our total debt. This comes on top of Muhammadu Buhari’s already heavy debt legacy. Yet if you check the 2025 budget, it still carries a huge deficit. This is despite relatively stable oil prices and a slight improvement in crude oil production. So, something is clearly not adding up.

How can a country that has removed one of its biggest expenditures—fuel subsidies—still be borrowing more than ever? Is it that the revenue reforms aren’t working, or is this a deeper issue with how we manage our economy? These are real questions that need honest answers. The reality is that Nigeria’s current borrowing trend is worrying not just because of the amount, but also because of the manner in which it’s happening and what it reflects.

According to the Debt Management Office, as of March 31, 2025, Nigeria’s public debt stood at ₦149.39 trillion. Tinubu alone has added ₦62.01 trillion to that figure in under two years. Now, let’s compare that with previous administrations: Goodluck Jonathan borrowed ₦5.9 trillion in five years. Buhari borrowed ₦74.78 trillion in eight years—including the controversial “Ways and Means” borrowing from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). That’s how bad things have gotten.

“Ways and Means” are short-term loans from the Central Bank to the Federal Government, intended to cover urgent expenses such as paying salaries or addressing unexpected shortfalls. Think of it like an overdraft facility. But the law is clear—the CBN Act, 2007 (Section 38) states that the Federal Government can only borrow up to 5% of the previous year’s revenue from the CBN, and it must be repaid in the same year. Under Buhari, this law was ignored. His government borrowed ₦22.7 trillion through Ways and Means, without obtaining proper approval from the National Assembly.

This ₦22.7 trillion had not been reflected in official debt figures for a long time. It only became part of Nigeria’s domestic debt record in May 2023, when Buhari’s government securitised it—basically converted it into long-term bonds. That move alone caused the total public debt to jump from ₦44.06 trillion at the end of 2022 to ₦87.38 trillion by June 2023. That’s a massive increase in just six months.

Now, some economists argue that Tinubu’s debt figures appear worse primarily due to the exchange rate. That argument is simple: Nigeria borrows in foreign currencies, such as the dollar, euro, or yuan, but records the debt in naira. So when the naira weakens, the same dollar loan becomes much bigger in naira terms.

Let’s look at the exchange rate across administrations. Under Jonathan, the exchange rate was around ₦ 157 to $1 in 2015. Under Buhari, the exchange rate was ₦770/$ in 2023. And under Tinubu, the exchange rate is now approximately ₦1536/$ as of 2025. So when you convert the same external loan, the naira value explodes as the currency weakens. Just this exchange rate movement has added ₦29.75 trillion to Tinubu’s external debt and ₦5.9 trillion to Buhari’s.

To properly check if the debt spike is mainly due to FX changes, let’s fix the exchange rate at ₦157/$ for all the administrations and see how much was actually borrowed. The formula is simple:

Old Dollar Debt × New Exchange Rate – Old Dollar Debt × Old Exchange Rate.

Using the DMO’s external debt figure of $38.81 billion in 2023:
$38.81bn × ₦770 = ₦29.85 trillion
$38.81bn × ₦1536 = ₦59.63 trillion
₦59.63 trillion – ₦29.85 trillion = ₦29.78 trillion

So, if the exchange rate had remained at ₦157/$, Nigeria’s external debt of $42.46 billion in 2025 would have been approximately ₦6.6 trillion. Under that fixed exchange rate, Jonathan’s total external borrowing would have been approximately ₦1.07 trillion over five years. Buhari’s about ₦4.48 trillion in eight years.

Tinubu’s about ₦1.12 trillion in under two years. This means if Tinubu continues at this pace, he’ll hit Buhari’s figure—₦4.48 trillion—in about eight years. Yes, the exchange rate plays a significant role. But that’s not the whole story.

Others argue that Tinubu’s debt problem is not just about FX. It’s also about spending discipline. Unlike Buhari, Tinubu removed fuel subsidies and slightly increased oil production (1.5–1.6 million barrels per day, compared to Buhari’s average of 1.2–1.3 million barrels), and customs and tax revenue also improved. Buhari faced more challenging conditions—global oil crashes, two recessions in 2016 and 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic, and high subsidy payments—during his early years. So, Tinubu had more room to save, but instead, borrowing has increased.

The 2025 budget projects a deficit of ₦13.08 trillion. It assumes oil at $77.96 per barrel and production of 2.06 million barrels per day. However, in reality, March production was only 1.65 million barrels per day, including condensates. And as of July 8, Brent crude was $70.20 and WTI was $68.42—both below the assumed price. That means revenue projections may fall short, and the government will likely borrow even more.

Tinubu has already requested $21.6 billion in new loans. In May 2025, Reuters reported that he also asked the National Assembly to approve loans of €2.2 billion, ¥15 billion (approximately $104 million), and an additional $2 billion in domestic loans. That’s not all.

The Federal Government also secured a $747 million syndicated external loan to fund Phase 1, Section 1 of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway—from Victoria Island to Eleko Village. At ₦1536/$, this loan adds ₦1.147 trillion to the debt. The lenders include Deutsche Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Afreximbank, and Zenith Bank, among others. The Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC) is providing insurance. That brings Tinubu’s total borrowing to about ₦63.157 trillion in under two years.

This highway is being built under a Public-Private Partnership using an EPC+F model. The road is over 70% complete and is designed using CRCP technology—concrete with a 50-year lifespan and low maintenance requirements. While the loan adds to debt, it shows some confidence from global investors and introduces a financing model that shares risk between the government and private firms.

Now to the bigger picture. As of 2024, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is around 25.1%, based on ₦144.67 trillion in debt and a nominal GDP of about $375 billion. That means debt accounts for about one-quarter of the economy—not yet alarming, but becoming risky if borrowing continues at this rate. What’s more worrying is the cost of servicing debt.

In 2024, debt service took up 4.1% of GDP—up from 3.7% in 2023 (AfDB report). That’s a lot. Imagine 4.1% of the entire economy going towards just paying off debt, instead of building schools, roads, or hospitals. Even worse, the debt service-to-revenue ratio rose from 76.86% in 2023 to 77.4% in 2024 (APA News). This means more than three-quarters of government revenue is now used to repay debt. That leaves very little for anything else. That’s not sustainable.

As Economics graduates, the way forward is clear. First, we need to depoliticise how we manage public finances. Countries like Chile, Sweden, and the UK have independent Fiscal Councils that enforce rules like debt limits and balanced budgets. Nigeria needs something like that to restore discipline and rebuild investor trust.

Second, loans must be tied to development goals—not used for consumption. Borrowing should be used for essential services like roads, electricity, and digital infrastructure, rather than paying salaries or covering bloated administrative costs. Rwanda and Ethiopia have shown how debt used for infrastructure can boost exports and growth. A cost-benefit analysis should accompany every loan.

Third, we must cut waste and off-budget liabilities. That includes fuel subsidies, failing state-owned enterprises, and unauthorised bailouts. Ghana passed a Fiscal Responsibility Act in 2018, capped its deficit at 5% of GDP, and ran audits that exposed massive leakages. Nigeria can cut borrowing by 30–40% just by following that path.

Fourth, improve tax collection—not by harassing small traders, but through fairness and the use of technology. Indonesia raised its tax-to-GDP ratio by digitising filing, automating risk detection, and linking tax IDs with national identity numbers. Nigeria can do the same—target high earners and multinationals instead of informal workers.

Fifth, public-private partnerships and syndicated loans, such as the Lagos-Calabar road, shouldn’t be used to conceal debt. They should help us attract private capital, share risks, and deliver real development. Countries like Morocco and Kenya make their PPP contracts public. Nigeria should also strive for greater transparency.

Finally, if things get out of hand, we can consider debt restructuring—but only as a last resort and if tied to fundamental reforms. Ghana restructured its debt in 2023 by extending maturities and cutting interest under IMF guidance. But what made it work was reform—cutting subsidies and improving tax systems. Without reform, restructuring solves nothing.

This is the time for Nigeria to act. If we continue on this path, we are only postponing a more profound crisis. But with the right decisions, we can still change direction.

Ibrahim is a graduate of Economics from Bayero University, Kano. He can be reached via nasirfirji4@gmail.com.

By Hanniel Sebatie Noboh

On the morning of July 30, Vanguard newspaper published an editorial titled “30% Processing of Export Raw Materials”, offering its perspective on the recently passed Senate bill mandating that all raw materials exported from Nigeria must be processed locally by at least 30 per cent. This long-overdue legislation is a welcome development in Nigeria’s quest for economic diversification.

Nigeria remains one of the most naturally endowed nations in the world. With abundant resources such as limestone, gold, natural gas, and the globally coveted crude oil, our country boasts mineral wealth that many developed nations lack. In agriculture too, from rice and groundnuts in the North to cassava and palm oil in the South, Nigeria’s fertile soil continues to bless us with variety and abundance.

Yet, successive governments have, for decades, focused disproportionately on crude oil, neglecting other sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing. As the Vanguard editorial rightly observed, even during economic downturns—when necessity should inspire reform—there has been little effort to diversify our export base.

This is why the passage of this bill marks a significant shift. By requiring at least 30 per cent local processing of all export-bound raw materials, Nigeria takes a substantial step towards value addition and economic transformation.

The advantages are manifold. First, processed goods typically command higher prices in global markets. Take cocoa, for instance—a ton of raw beans sells for far less than the same quantity processed into cocoa butter. This principle applies to most commodities: the more value added, the greater the earnings.

Second, enforcing the 30 per cent processing threshold will spur the development of local industries. More processing facilities will mean more jobs, improved infrastructure, and Nigeria’s transition from an exporter of raw materials to a player in the global manufacturing and semi-processed goods market. Even for domestic buyers, the availability of semi-processed inputs will reduce dependency on fully imported goods, lowering costs and supporting local production.

Additionally, the bill aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s vision of making agriculture more attractive to Nigerian youth. Many young people may not be drawn to traditional farming, but with the emergence of new processing plants, opportunities will abound in machine operations, logistics, quality control, and related fields.

However, as Vanguard also warned, the real challenge lies in implementation. Nigeria has no shortage of well-intentioned policies, but history shows that many fail at the execution stage. A lack of infrastructure, regulatory oversight, and transparency could undermine the promise of this bill. The risk of corruption—particularly in granting exemptions or failing to enforce compliance—must be proactively addressed.

The responsibility for enforcement rests with the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC), which must ensure compliance with the 30 per cent benchmark and uphold quality standards. Any exporter who fails to meet the requirement will face a 15% surcharge on the export value of their raw materials. This is a strong disincentive, but only if enforced fairly and transparently.

In conclusion, while the bill is commendable, its success depends on rigorous implementation, strong political will, and effective institutional accountability. If executed effectively, it could be a game-changer for Nigeria’s economy. Like many Nigerians, I remain hopeful that this won’t become another forgotten policy but the beginning of a new era of industrial growth and self-reliance.

Hanniel Sebatie Noboh is a Mass Communication student at Nile University and an intern at PRNigeria. She can be reached via nobohhanniel@gmail.com.

By Muhammad Abubakar

The Federal Government of Nigeria has approached the World Bank for a fresh loan of $1.75 billion to support its economic reform agenda.

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, disclosed that the facility would help cushion the impact of recent policy adjustments, including the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the exchange rate, which have placed significant strain on households and businesses.

He explained that the request, if approved, would provide critical budgetary support, strengthen fiscal sustainability, and help address the nation’s infrastructural and developmental challenges.

Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has repeatedly defended his administration’s reforms, insisting they are necessary to revive the economy and attract foreign investment.

World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Shubham Chaudhuri, confirmed that discussions are ongoing, although no official approval has been given yet.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has in recent years relied on multilateral loans to bridge financing gaps amid rising debt obligations and dwindling revenues.

By Uzair Adam

The Kano State Coordinating Office of the Livestock Productivity and Resilience Support Project (L-PRES), a World Bank–supported programme, has commenced a two-day training for 200 livestock extension agents and advisory service providers on modern livestock production strategies.

The training, which began on Tuesday at the Kadawa Mechanisation Institute in Garun Malam Local Government Area, is aimed at equipping extension agents to support the adoption of improved breeds through selection, breeding and artificial insemination techniques, as well as the proper management of forage resources and feed formulation.

In his welcome address, the State Project Coordinator of L-PRES, Dr. Salisu Muhammad Inuwa, described the training as a strategic step towards transforming the livestock sector in Kano.

He said the project aims to increase productivity, strengthen resilience, and promote sustainable practices that would uplift farmers and improve livelihoods.

Dr. Inuwa was quoted as saying,“You, the extension officers, are the bridge between research, policies, innovations, and the farmers in our communities.

The knowledge and skills you gain here will help our livestock keepers adopt improved breeds, better management practices, and modern feeding techniques.”

Speaking on behalf of the state government, Dr. Bashir Sunusi, Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources, who represented the Commissioner, Dr. Danjuma Mahmood, said Kano has invested heavily in agriculture, including the recruitment of over 1,000 extension workers and expansion of irrigation facilities.

He noted that extension agents remain the frontline soldiers of agriculture and urged participants to take the training seriously.

“Extension work is not theory; it is practical. When extension agents are well trained and equipped, they can support farmers to achieve higher yields, improved livestock production, and better access to markets,” Sanusi said.

Also speaking, Gambo Isa Garko, an extension officer with L-PRES, said the project is expected to transform livestock production in the state, particularly in meat, milk, and poultry output.

He added that the initiative would also establish livestock centres where farmers can access feed, veterinary services, and advisory support.

According to him, L-PRES is building a database of livestock farmers through profiling, which will enable targeted interventions.

“We are going to transform Kadawa into a practical school for livestock where farmers will learn from one another through farmer-to-farmer interaction, which makes adoption of new practices easier,” he explained.

Speaking on behalf of the participants, Ibrahim Adamu Aliyu commended the organisers for providing what he described as a timely and practical training.

He said the knowledge gained will enhance their capacity to deliver advisory services to farmers more effectively.

“This training is equipping us with modern techniques that will help us address the challenges faced by farmers, especially in adopting improved breeds, better feeding systems, and disease control measures.

“We are committed to taking this knowledge back to our communities and ensuring that it translates into tangible results for farmers,” Aliyu said.

The training includes lectures on extension strategies and models for reaching farmers, livestock production and breeding, artificial insemination, animal feed formulation, and pest and disease control, among others.

By Oladoja M.O

The Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration has unarguably embarked on a bold and unapologetic mission to retool Nigeria’s economy. From the abrupt removal of petrol subsidies to the floating of the naira, the unification of multiple FX windows, and most recently, the signing of the landmark Tax Reform and Fiscal Policy Bill, there is no denying that the government has chosen a macro-to-micro economic approach. That is, fix the big picture first, then let the gains gradually filter to the people.

And indeed, the “green lights” are beginning to blink. Global credit rating agencies such as Fitch and Moody’s have upgraded Nigeria’s outlook. Foreign investors are expressing renewed interest. Oil production is improving, FX liquidity is easing, and fiscal buffers are being rebuilt. From a purely macroeconomic standpoint, Nigeria appears to be reclaiming its place as a serious economy with a reform-minded leadership.

But there’s a contradiction that cannot be ignored: on the streets of Agege, Aba, Makurdi, and beyond, the economy is still red; red markets, red household budgets, red transport fares, and red faces of frustration. Prices have tripled in some cases. Wages have barely moved. Many can no longer afford their children’s school fees. Traders are losing capital to inflation. Food is fast becoming a luxury. Amid this hardship, Nigerians are asking the most honest, piercing question of the moment:

“If the economy is growing, why am I still shrinking?” “If the economy is growing, where is the growth in my pocket?”

This is not a question born out of ignorance. It is a legitimate cry that speaks to the disconnect between macroeconomic progress and microeconomic relief. Yes, the big numbers are looking better, but the lived realities of the majority are deteriorating. To understand this discrepancy, we must first understand the difference between macroeconomics and microeconomics. 

Macroeconomics concerns itself with the national economy, including factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, budget deficits, and foreign exchange reserves. These are the indicators investors, multilateral organisations, and economic analysts watch. Microeconomics, on the other hand, deals with everyday realities: how much you earn, what you can buy with that income, whether your small business can survive, and whether prices of food, fuel, and medicine are manageable. In theory, macroeconomic stability should, over time, trickle down and improve microeconomic conditions. But in practice, especially in a country like Nigeria, that process is rarely smooth or automatic.

The truth is that reforms, especially big, structural reforms create what economists call a “lag effect.” That is, the pain comes first; the relief comes much later. Floating the naira made the exchange rate more transparent and investor-friendly, but it also instantly raised the price of imported goods. Removing fuel subsidy fixed a long-standing fiscal leak, but it also sent transport and food prices soaring. And because Nigeria imports a significant share of its consumption, inflation spiked, with devastating effects on the poor. Salaries have not caught up. Social safety nets are thin. Informal workers who make up over 60% of Nigeria’s labour force are primarily left to fend for themselves.

Yet, this is the path the government has chosen. And it is important to say this clearly: choosing a macro-first approach is not inherently wrong. In fact, for a country like Nigeria, plagued by decades of financial mismanagement, it is even necessary. Fixing subsidies, unifying the exchange rate, and rebuilding fiscal credibility are long overdue. Every administration must work with the strategy it believes in, and this government has opted to “stabilise the roof before fixing the foundation.” That, in itself, is a policy choice one with clear upsides.

However, macroeconomic success without a visible microeconomic impact is a hard sell to a hungry population. People don’t live in GDP. They live on garri, transport fares, and electricity bills. While international investors applaud the courage of reforms, local citizens are asking: Where is the evidence that my own life is getting better?

The administration is not blind to this concern. The recently signed Tax Reform and Fiscal Policy Bill is part of a broader effort to expand the tax net and capture the informal sector, both to raise revenue and bring more economic players into visibility. But again, for the everyday Nigerian, these reforms are abstract. What matters is how they translate into food on the table, money in the pocket, and hope in the future.

So, how do we build a bridge between this macro-level retooling and the micro-level reality of the people?

First, we must move beyond tokenistic interventions like cash transfers and instead design innovative relief tools that tie micro-support to long-term productivity. For example, introducing community-based digital vouchers that support food or fuel purchases but are redeemable only when tied to school attendance, digital payments, or participation in a training program would ease the current pressure while also boosting the country’s long-term human capital.

Second, the government must decentralise economic adaptation. Nigeria is too diverse for a one-size-fits-all economic playbook. Establishing “Local Reform Chambers” committees made up of state governments, market leaders, and community associations can help interpret macro policies at a local level and propose area-specific interventions. If subsidy removal causes a shock in Zaria or Owerri, let those communities co-design their response, be it cooperative transport schemes or communal food banks, funded partially by the government and partially by local actors.

Thirdly, data must become a feedback tool, not just a planning tool. The government should publish a monthly Macro-to-Micro Progress Report that clearly shows how reforms are improving incomes, lowering costs, or reaching underserved communities. Let people see the path of change, even if it’s still under construction.

Finally, the government must actively invest in skills, tools, and local infrastructure. Don’t just train youths to code; train them to fix machines, install solar panels, manage cooperatives, and build homes. Make markets more productive with solar lighting, shared storage, and access to water. These are the enablers that convert national growth into grassroots empowerment.

Conclusively, it is fair to acknowledge that the current administration is taking steps that previous governments only danced around. The reforms are not without merit and frankly, not without courage. But reforms are not complete until they reach the people.

The Nigerian people are not impatient; they are simply in pain. And when they ask, “If the economy is growing, why is my pocket not?” they are not being unreasonable. They are asking for what every citizen deserves: a place in the progress. Now is the time to move beyond balancing spreadsheets and begin balancing lives because growth is only real when it is felt.

And no reform is complete until the people rise with the numbers.

Oladoja M.O writes from Abuja and can be reached at: mayokunmark@gmail.com

By Jamilu M Magaji

On May 29, 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, marked his second anniversary as the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This milestone represents not just the passage of time, but a turning point in Nigeria’s modern political and economic history—a testament to bold reforms, strategic governance, and a relentless pursuit of national development. 

In just 24 months, President Tinubu’s administration has laid a firm foundation for economic revitalisation, security stabilisation, and human capital investment. The following is my attempt to appraise the two years of transformational strides of the presidency driven by purpose, progress, and the promise of a new Nigeria:

1. Empowering Nigerians through Strategic Financial Interventions

One of the hallmark initiatives of the Tinubu administration is the Presidential Loan and Grant Scheme, which has supported over 900,000 entrepreneurs and small business owners. This lifeline of financial empowerment is revitalising the informal sector and unlocking grassroots innovation. Complementing this effort, the Students’ Loan Scheme has already benefitted over 300,000 young Nigerians, giving them access to quality higher education without the financial burden that has held back generations. These programs signal a long-overdue democratisation of access to capital and education.

2. Restoring Fiscal Stability and Investor Confidence 

In a remarkable feat, Nigeria has cleared over $10 billion in FX debt, a move that has stabilised the naira and restored international confidence. This bold financial reengineering is matched by a surge in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), with over $50 billion in new commitments, indicating trust in Nigeria’s economic direction. In addition, Nigeria’s net foreign exchange reserves have seen an unprecedented jump — from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $23.11 billion in 2024 — a result of stringent reforms, strategic investment policies, and renewed international engagement.

The oil and gas sector, once plagued by underinvestment, is also experiencing a renaissance. Over $8 billion in new investments have been unlocked, laying the groundwork for energy security and industrial expansion. Meanwhile, the solid minerals sector attracted over $800 million in processing investments in 2024 alone, positioning Nigeria for a post-oil economy.

3. Infrastructure and Economic Growth on the Fast Lane

President Tinubu has significantly accelerated infrastructure development, with over 440 road projects currently underway, including more than 2,700 kilometres of new superhighways. These projects are not just roads — they are economic corridors, connecting communities, facilitating trade, and enhancing logistics nationwide. This infrastructure push has underpinned Nigeria’s 3.84% GDP growth in Q4 2024, the highest in three years, signalling a recovering and resilient economy under proactive leadership.

4. People-Centric Reforms and Regional Inclusion

The federal government approved and commenced payment of a N70,000 minimum wage, reinforcing its commitment to the welfare of Nigerian workers. This is a bold move by the government to address rising living costs and boost workers’morale. Moreover, the administration has introduced four new landmark Tax Bills, ensuring a more equitable, transparent, and growth-oriented tax system. These legislative milestones are simplifying compliance and boosting non-oil revenue streams.

Furthermore, new Regional Development Commissions have been established, decentralising development and giving states a stronger voice in the national growth agenda. This was a nod to Nigeria’s long-standing diverse regional aspirations.

5. Securing the Nation, Securing the Future

Perhaps one of the most critical achievements is in the area of national security. Under President Tinubu’s leadership, over 13,500 terrorists have been eliminated, significantly degrading insurgent capabilities and restoring relative peace to previously volatile regions. These gains are the result of strategic military coordination, improved equipment, and the unwavering resolve to secure every inch of Nigerian territory.

In conclusion, let me say that two years into his presidency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has demonstrated that transformative leadership is possible when courage meets vision. As the nation looks ahead, Nigerians are increasingly hopeful that these gains will be deepened, institutionalised, and scaled for future generations.

Magaji, a Public Affairs Analyst based in Birnin Kebbi, Kebbi State, can be reached via: mjmagaji@gmail.com.

By Muhammad Abubakar

Former Nigerian Vice President and presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar has criticised the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration over unpaid wage awards and the detention of labour activist Comrade Andrew Uche Emelieze.

In a statement shared on his social media accounts, Atiku accused President Tinubu of worsening economic hardship through the “hasty and thoughtless” removal of fuel subsidy on his inauguration day, which he said plunged Nigerians into inflation, hunger, and despair.

Atiku said the government promised a ₦35,000 monthly wage award to federal civil servants pending the conclusion of a new minimum wage deal. Ten months later, only six months have been paid, leaving ₦140,000 owed per worker.

He condemned the arrest of Comrade Emelieze, who was detained for attempting to organise a peaceful protest over the unpaid wages, calling it “an affront to democracy.”

“We demand the immediate and unconditional release of Comrade Emelieze,” Atiku said. “Nigerian workers will not be silenced, intimidated, or forgotten.”

The Federal Government has yet to respond to the statement.

By Muhammad Abubakar

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to the ideals of the BRICS bloc, emphasising the need for financial restructuring and a reimagined global order that reflects the aspirations of emerging economies.

Speaking at the ongoing BRICS summit in Rio, Tinubu stated that the group must evolve beyond its economic identity to become a “beacon for emerging solutions” based on solidarity, self-reliance, sustainability, and shared prosperity.

Talking about Nigeria’s youth-driven demographic, the President emphasised the importance of shaping global policies that address the specific concerns of young people, who comprise 70% of Nigeria’s population.

“Nigeria is not a passive participant in global affairs,” Tinubu declared. “We are taking bold, homegrown steps to accelerate renewable energy, mainstream climate action, strengthen urban resilience, and expand healthcare access.”

He concluded with a strong message of determination: “The world is changing. Nigeria will not be left behind. We will help lead the way.”

 By Nasiru Ibrahim 

The channels of distribution from exploration to consumers in Nigeria’s oil industry—before Dangote’s refinery—began with crude oil extracted by NNPC Ltd. and international companies such as Shell, Mobil, and Chevron. The crude was sold to NNPC or exported. Due to the poor performance of local refineries, such as those in Warri and Port Harcourt, Nigeria relied on importing refined fuel through NNPC and major marketers, including TotalEnergies, Oando, and Conoil.

Once imported, the fuel was stored in depots like Apapa, Atlas Cove, Ibru Jetty, and Calabar. From there, independent transport companies such as Petrolog, TSL Logistics, AA Rano, and MRS transported it by tanker to filling stations. These stations—both major and independent—sold the fuel directly to consumers. 

Alhaji Aliko Dangote is on the verge of taking full control of Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, covering everything from marketing and retail to transportation and distribution of petroleum products. In economic terms, this is known as vertical integration. Many Nigerians are now raising concerns that Dangote could dominate the entire fuel market. This comes after Dangote Petroleum Refinery released a press statement outlining its upcoming plans for fuel supply and distribution.

In the statement dated June 16, 2025, the company announced that it will start selling petrol (PMS) and diesel in the Nigerian market from August 15, 2025. To support this, it plans to roll out 4,000 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)-powered trucks across the country to deliver fuel directly to buyers at no additional logistics cost.

Dangote also revealed that it will offer credit facilities to credible buyers who purchase at least 500,000 litres of PMS or diesel. 

These buyers include registered oil marketers, manufacturers, telecom companies, airlines, and other large fuel consumers. The company states that this move will enhance fuel availability, reduce reliance on imports, and bolster Nigeria’s energy security by overseeing both refining and distribution.

With Dangote’s new initiative, he buys crude oil from NNPC and refines it here in Nigeria. Then, using his trucks, he moves the fuel to his storage depots and delivers it straight to filling stations. This means no need for middlemen or prominent marketers—everything is handled by Dangote’s team from start to finish.

However, while this could lower fuel prices and ease supply challenges, it has also sparked fears about reduced competition. Some worry that giving too much power to one player could lead to a market monopoly, calling for proper regulation to ensure fairness in the downstream sector.

Economists, policymakers, businessmen, entrepreneurs, and economics students like myself are actively considering the potential impact of this new initiative on oil marketers, the Nigerian economy, employment, exchange rates, consumers, filling stations, climate change, and other critical factors. Many are questioning whether this move will yield positive results. However, we cannot understand the implications unless we first examine the structure and components of Nigeria’s downstream sector, including Dangote himself, his competitors, those affected by his actions, and all other players in the supply chain up to the final consumer.

In economics and policy development, a long-standing debate exists about how policies should be evaluated. Some scholars argue that policies should be judged by their outcomes, while others believe they should be assessed based on their intentions. For example, Milton Friedman emphasised that policies must be judged by their results, not their intentions. 

In contrast, economists like Paul Samuelson acknowledged the importance of considering both intent and context, especially when outcomes are not yet visible. This debate is relevant here. It may be premature to conclude whether Dangote’s new initiative is positive or negative solely based on expected results, as those outcomes have not yet materialised. 

Nevertheless, some would argue that judging the initiative by its intention — such as improving fuel availability, reducing logistics costs, and enhancing energy security — is still meaningful, especially in economic policy, where many decisions are based on projected or long-term effects. Evaluating intentions enables us to gauge the direction of policy, even in the absence of immediate evidence.

Nigeria’s downstream sector is responsible for refining, retailing, distribution, transportation, and marketing of petroleum products. It comprises several companies and regulatory bodies, including NNPCL, Dangote Refinery, Oando, MRS, AA Rano, ExxonMobil, Danmarna, Aliko Oil, and many others. While Dangote operates across both the midstream and downstream sectors, his actions may also indirectly affect the upstream sector, particularly through their influence on demand, supply, and the pricing of petroleum products.

Instead of focusing solely on the structure of the downstream sector, I believe we should carefully consider both the potential benefits and drawbacks of this new initiative by Dangote Refinery, without completely dismissing Friedman’s view on judging policies strictly by results.

Potential Positive Implications of the New Initiative

Firstly, Dangote’s new initiative will reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported oil from the Gulf and Europe. This is beneficial for Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves, as less demand for imported fuel means the country will need fewer U.S. dollars for imports. As a result, this could lead to an appreciation of the Naira due to a fall in demand for foreign currency. Additionally, it will improve the trade balance and increase GDP contribution from the domestic oil refining sector.

Secondly, the initiative will create both direct and indirect jobs in Nigeria. Direct employment opportunities will arise for truck drivers, mechanics, technicians, depot workers, and logistics personnel. If Dangote deploys between 2,000 and 4,000 trucks, and each truck requires one to two drivers, along with at least one support mechanic, one depot staff member, and logistics coordinators, this could result in approximately 20,000 direct jobs. Indirect employment opportunities will arise for consultants, accountants, lawyers, filling station managers, as well as workers in catering, cleaning, petrochemicals, fertiliser, plastics, and related industries.

Thirdly, the initiative will enhance fuel accessibility and improve supply chain efficiency, thereby reducing waste and environmental pollution. By taking direct control over storage and distribution, the initiative can eliminate middlemen inefficiencies, potentially reducing fuel scarcity and hoarding, which often drive up inflation. With direct sales to filling stations, illegal practices like tanker swaps and product diversion by middlemen can be curbed. Furthermore, the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)-powered trucks will lower transportation costs, reduce emissions, and increase domestic gas utilisation, thereby boosting gas revenue.

Fourthly, the initiative is expected to lower fuel prices, which is a major driver of inflation in Nigeria. By eliminating international shipping fees, foreign refinery profit margins, and import levies—all of which form a significant portion of the overall fuel cost—the retail price per unit of fuel could drop. Lower fuel prices can ease the cost of living, reduce inflationary pressures, and improve economic stability.

Fifthly, the initiative will strengthen Nigeria’s energy security in the face of global supply chain disruptions. For instance, ongoing conflicts such as the Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars, or geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, can threaten the global fuel supply. Additionally, OPEC+ efforts to raise oil prices increase external vulnerabilities. By reducing dependence on imported fuel, Nigeria becomes more resilient to global shocks, ensuring steady availability of fuel at domestic filling stations even during international crises.

Sixthly, from a broader perspective, this initiative positions Nigeria as a regional supplier of refined petroleum products in Africa, reducing the continent’s reliance on Europe and the Gulf. This shift enhances Nigeria’s foreign policy leverage and strategic influence, particularly within regional and international institutions such as ECOWAS, AfCFTA, AfDB, and Afreximbank. A robust domestic refining industry enhances investor confidence and may attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) in the long term. Investors are more likely to commit to economies with stable energy supply, regional trade advantages, and reduced exposure to global price shocks.

Potential Negative Implications

Firstly, there is a serious economic fear that this could lead to a monopoly, and many Nigerians have already raised concerns about that. The Petroleum Tanker Drivers and Owners Association of Nigeria (PATROAN) and the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) have both expressed worry that Dangote might dominate the entire downstream oil sector. In economics, when a single company controls the whole supply chain, from refining to selling, it stifles competition. And when there’s no competition, prices can be fixed unfairly, small businesses get pushed out, and consumers suffer in the long run.

Secondly, there’s the risk of predatory pricing. This occurs when a powerful company sells at very low prices—sometimes even below cost—to drive smaller competitors out of the market. Dangote might do this since he doesn’t import fuel and can afford to sell at a lower price. However, after chasing them out, he can raise prices at any time, leaving people with no choice and putting consumers at risk of exploitation. This leads to what is called “deadweight loss” in economics, where both individuals and the economy lose out.

Thirdly, many jobs could be lost, especially among small fuel marketers, distributors, and transporters who previously imported and sold fuel themselves. Dangote is now doing everything directly—refining, distributing, and even retailing—which means companies like AA Rano, Danmarna, Aliko Oil, and many others might be pushed out or forced to operate under unfair terms. This is already affecting their businesses, especially in the North, and could lead to job losses in areas that rely heavily on these companies.

Fourthly, government policy interference and the role of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) could create more problems. NNPCL also operates in the downstream sector and has partnerships and influence that could either support or conflict with Dangote’s activities. Past issues, such as unclear pricing, fuel subsidy mismanagement, and delays in policy implementation, demonstrate that when government agencies operate without transparency, it can create more confusion than solutions. This could make it easier for big companies like Dangote to influence decisions in their favour while others suffer.

Fifthly, new investors might avoid the sector. If one company already controls everything, what’s left for others to invest in? People may view the fuel business in Nigeria as a “one-man game,” making it challenging to attract new ideas, competition, and investment. This can slow down innovation and limit the country’s long-term progress in energy.

Sixthly, there’s a risk of regional imbalance. Dangote might focus more on high-demand urban areas where there’s more profit, and this could lead to fuel shortages in rural or northern regions. Small marketers who once served these communities may not survive, and that means remote areas could suffer more from fuel scarcity. This may exacerbate existing regional inequalities.

Possible solutions 

Firstly, don’t ban fuel imports immediately. Let other marketers continue importing fuel, at least for the time being. If only one company controls the supply, prices may rise or stay unstable. The government can grant import waivers to others, ensuring that competition remains alive and fuel remains affordable.

Secondly, we should repair our old refineries and support the development of new ones. Dangote shouldn’t be the only one refining fuel. If we repair the Warri, Port Harcourt, and Kaduna refineries and encourage small private ones, we’ll have a more local supply. That also helps in the future if we want to export after meeting our own needs. 

Thirdly, ensure that other players can access storage and transportation facilities. If only Dangote had the port, pipelines, and trucks, smaller marketers wouldn’t survive. The government can step in to make sure these facilities are shared fairly, with clear rules and affordable fees.

Fourthly, don’t forget far places like Northern states and rural towns. Most fuel may remain in the South, where Dangote is located. Therefore, the government should support distribution to remote areas by encouraging group buying or establishing shared fuel depots. Everyone deserves access, not just those near the refinery.

Fifthly, expand the availability of fuel alternatives like CNG to more locations. If we’re shifting to compressed natural gas (CNG), it should not be exclusive to the rich or city dwellers. Rural and remote areas require the same support,including CNG buses, filling stations, and awareness initiatives.

Finally, monitor prices and ensure fairness. We need a simple system that tracks and shows fuel prices across regions. That way, if one company tries to raise prices unfairly, the public and the government will be aware.

Ibrahim is an economist and writer based in Jigawa State, Nigeria. He holds a degree in Economics from Bayero University, Kano. With a background in journalism at Forsige, he currently works as a research assistant and contributes expert commentary on economics, finance, and business.

By Zayyad I. Muhammad

On Thursday, June 26, 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed into law four landmark tax bills that the National Assembly had recently passed.

Whether one agrees or disagrees with Tinubu’s style of governance, the new tax bills signal a new beginning for Nigerians, businesses, and governments, both at the subnational and federal levels.

Some key  highlights of the Reforms are:

Elimination of Duplication in Tax Collection: One major reform is the establishment of the new Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), which will now collect revenues that were previously handled by numerous agencies, such as the Nigeria Customs Service, Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), NIMASA, and others.

Tax Exemption for Low-Income Earners: With the new provisions, individuals earning ₦800,000 or less per year are now fully exempt from income tax. This is a masterstroke, especially for many people in the North. It removes a huge burden and creates space for their small and medium-sized businesses to grow and flourish.

New Personal Income Tax Rate: 

Only those earning above ₦50 million annually will be required to pay the new 25% personal income tax rate. This is both fair and reasonable.

Another significant win for the North, which has the highest concentration of impoverished people in Nigeria, is the removal of VAT on essential goods and services, including school fees, medical services, food, pharmaceuticals, and electricity. This is a significant relief for the poor and small to medium-sized businesses.

The corporate tax rate will now be reduced from 30% to 25%, and small businesses will be fully exempt from paying income tax.

The controversial VAT issue has now been ‘fairly’ settled, and again, it’s a big win for the North, which had previously raised concerns. The new revenue-sharing formula is as follows:

Federal Government: 10%

States: 55%

Local Governments: 35%

Even more importantly, the VAT sharing formula has been revised in a way that favours the North. If northern states seize the opportunity to harness and develop their economies and markets, especially in agriculture, they will benefit significantly.

The new sharing criteria are:

50% of VAT is shared equally among all states

20% is based on population

30% is based on where goods/services are consumed

One of the most important features of these tax reforms is how they protect and uplift the poor and small businesses,especially in the North, where:

About 65% of Nigeria’s poorest people live

Over 52% of the country’s states are located

More than 60% of the population resides

Nearly 70% of Nigeria’s landmass is found

And almost 80% of agricultural production takes place

It’s time for northern states to tap into local knowledge and deploy homegrown experts to thoroughly study the four landmark tax laws in line with each state’s peculiarities and needs, yet with the whole North as the unifying objective.

If well studied and strategically implemented, Tinubu’s new tax reforms could be the silver bullet the North has been waiting for.

They offer fiscal justice, decentralisation of revenue, protection for the poor, incentives for businesses, and a practical opportunity to lift millions out of poverty.

However, as always, it will take visionary leadership, technical expertise, and political will to translate policy into meaningful impact. The opportunity is here. The North must not waste it.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.