Nigeria

By Iranloye Sofiu Taiye

Gone are the days when most people in our society were contented with little they had and a time when we slept with our two eyes closed; it was a communal state characterised by collectivism. Then we were our brother’s keepers when travellers were safe to journey at night without any security threats, a time when meritocracy prevailed over mediocrity when criminals were not sympathised with, and an epoch when elderly people were highly respected and venerated. 

The situation is quite catastrophic currently with the substitution of collectivism with individualism. We are now dwelling in a society where everyone minds his business with no form of a collective check on the excesses of our people, especially when it comes to criminal actions. I can vividly recall when we were juveniles. Generally, few people had cars, televisions, fridges, and generators.

Children had fewer clothes bought during the festival period and ate the best dishes (rice and chicken) during the festive season or special events. Yet, we are not frustrated. On the contrary, both day and night, the entrance and doors to the house of the rich are wildly often open to play and eat together with their children, and the rich also tolerate their children eating together in the less privileged homes and vice-versa. 

Children always troop into the room of anyone who has a television whenever there’s light to watch movies and listen to the news with no intimidation from anyone. In our community, we are always proud and happy if someone has a car in our area because, during any festival, all children in that community will go to the praying ground with that car. No one is under a burden to amass what they couldn’t afford just to oppress others.

Society has a culture of contentment though people strive to improve their living conditions within their means. Owing to contentment and collectivism, the crime rate was meagre because the notion of ‘i-must-make-it-anyhow’, which has ravaged our societies today, isn’t the order of the day then.   

Pathetically, our society of today has been polarised and characterised by social class disparity anchored on economic buoyancy, where those who are wealthy don’t tolerate the less privileged. Thus, the relationship only exists if the poor are ready to kowtow to the dictate of the rich to advance their oppression. 

Youths commit crimes including; kidnapping, armed robbery, murder, rape, internet fraud, money ritual, and alcoholism because they want to wear designer, drive the latest cars, use the latest iPhones, and party with open Street girls. Sadly, many members of our society today are abetting this aberration and terror, demonising our communities of which the parents, guidance, religious clerics, and even the bad eggs within our security personnel and government officials are not left out.  

The rise in the rate of internet fraud, known as Yahoo-Yahoo! and kidnapping is one of the major causes of carnage across our communities today, but all our hands are at akimbo as if what’s happening is normal in our communities today even though we are all aware the perpetrators of this evils engage in human parts harvesting for money rituals.

Many young men on our streets today are into drug abuse, cultism, and alcoholism, which have continued to pose a severe threat to the peace and security of our communities, thus, increasing the crime rate. Our parents, known to be a model before, had soiled their integrity and never cared to know the source of the wealth of their children today. Alas, we now have the ‘yahoo-yahoo mother association’ organised to support their children who are into cybercrime and internet fraud spiritually. Let alone ladies freely engage in advanced prostitution (hook-ups) to compete and oppress others. 

The schools and institutions known to be an avenue for character modelling before are nothing to write about today. People only attend school for academic accomplishment, devoid of character. Stealing and misappropriating the public commonwealth by those occupying public offices, including politicians and civil servants, is now a culture.

Regrettably, the court system and the judiciary are now blemished with conspiracies and marred with corruption. The supposed last hope of the masses has become the fortress for the rich, where the highest bidder gets the desired judgment.

How did our esteem values and norms get substituted, and why is criminality on the rise despite our religion and high level of education? I believe it’s already too late to continue to point fingers at colonialism, globalisation, or westernisation as our problem currently. But the main issue is that our values and norms have been neglected. Hence this dilemma and nightmares befall us.

As a Yoruba aphorism says, “if you know not where you’re heading to, you should know where you are coming from” Revival of our culture; norms and values are pertinent now to arrest and stem this risen criminality in our society.

Iranloye Sofiu Taiye (Optimism Mirror) is reachable via iranloye100@gmail.com.

By Abubakar Muhammad Tukur

In Nigeria, true federalism means different things to different people. The newfound phrase could be better understood using a geo-political lens. Let us begin with the southwest, which the Yoruba dominates.

The agitation for true federalism started in the southwest immediately after the annulment of the 1993 presidential election, believed to have been won by a Yoruba man. The Yoruba elite argued that the election was annulled simply because their northern counterparts were unwilling to concede political power to the south. Hence, their vigorous campaign for a ‘power shift’ to the south. By power shift, they meant an end to the northern elites’ stranglehold on political power and, by extension, economic control.

However, with a Yoruba man, Olusegun Obasanjo, emerging as the president in 1999, the clamour for a power shift became moribund and was replaced with that of ‘true federalism’. By true federalism, the Yoruba elite means a federal system with a weak centre, a system in which the constituent units are independent of the centre, especially in the fiscal sphere.

The cry of marginalisation has been loud in the southeast, home to the Igbo ethnic group. The Igbo’s position regarding Nigeria’s federal system is that the system is characterised by lopsidedness, particularly in allocating national resources.

Another ground of Igbo agitation for true federalism is their perception of non-integration into mainstream politics since the end of the civil war in 1970, citing a lack of federal presence in the region. This sense of lack of belonging informs the views of some pro-self-determination groups like the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) and Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) that the Igbo people are no longer interested in being part of Nigeria and should be allowed to secede and form an independent state of Biafra.

It is, however, doubtful if the campaign for the resurgence of Biafra is popular among the elite of the southeast whose political and business interests cut across the country. By true federalism, therefore, the Igbos of the southeast mean a federal practice that accommodates every ethnic group in the multinational federation.

Similarly, a sense of political and economic marginalisation forms the basis upon which the minorities in the Niger Delta (or the south-south geo-political zone), where the bulk of Nigeria’s oil is located, persistently demand their own exclusive political space using the euphemism of ‘resource control’ and true federalism.

In the Nigerian context, the term resource control means the right of a federating unit to have absolute control over the mineral resources found within its jurisdiction and contribute to the central government to fund federal responsibilities.

The perceived injustice in resource distribution is the main driving force for the struggle for resource control. The oil-producing states have repeatedly argued that Nigeria’s fiscal federalism, which encourages lopsided distributive politics, has been unfair to them. For the people of the Niger Delta, therefore, resource control is a solution to marginalisation. Thus, for the people of this region, true federalism means a federal practice whereby the federating units are allowed to own and manage their resources as they desire.

Seemingly, the northern elite wants the status quo to remain based on the belief that the present system favours its interest in some quarters. These include the federal character principle, majority representation at the federal level and quota system.

We have been able to demonstrate in this article that central to the agitations for true federalism in Nigeria is the struggle for access to national resources. Oil rents and their distribution have shaped the operation of Nigeria’s federal system and have also contributed largely to the failure of federalism in Nigeria. Nigeria’s history of revenue distribution is about each ethnic group or geo-political region seeking to maximise its share of national resources. One reason for the acrimonious revenue allocation system is that Nigeria’s component units lack viable sources of revenue of their own.

Also, the economic disparity that has given rise to unequal development among them is another source of contention. Therefore, any future political reform must ensure the accommodation of the country’s ethnic diversity because this is one of the many ways national unity could be achieved.

As a way out of the over-centralisation of the system, the country’s fiscal federalism should emphasise revenue generation rather than revenue distribution, as this would ensure the fiscal viability of the states. Any future reform should be tailored towards the states generating their own revenue, and those not endowed with resources should devise strategies to generate revenue from other sources. Internally-generated revenue should only complement a state’s share of federally collected revenue. Moreover, with the decentralisation of economic resources, the states would be in relative control of their resources and be less dependent on the centre.

A weakening of the federal centre may not be a bad idea, but Nigeria needs a federal system that would ensure the relative supremacy of the central government vis-à-vis the state governments. The size of the federation, as well as its ethnic diversity and economic disparity, requires a relatively strong federal government that would be able to regulate the competition for national resources.

It may be concluded at this juncture that Nigerian federalism is defective, and reforms are inescapable. The unending quest for true federalism, political restructuring, and self-determination within the context of the ethnically heterogeneous Nigerian federation will disappear until the political leaders reform the institutions and structures of the federal system to give a semblance of genuine federalism.

Abubakar Muhammad Tukur, LLB (in view), can be contacted via abubakartukur00396@gmail.com.

By Lawan Bukar Maigana

It is now an open secret that the former Governor of Lagos State, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is now Nigeria’s president-elect. For many who may not know, the erstwhile Lagos Chief Executive is not the typical run-of-the-mill Nigerian politician. 

A master political strategist of no mean repute, Tinubu has never lost an election since he started appearing on the ballot. The lessons in his political journey are enormous and worth studying by contemporary politicians, especially young people who aspire to be leaders of tomorrow. 

Tinubu’s political trajectory depicts the importance of building people regardless of any differences. He built builders, and the builders built him. 

Most people, including some members of his party, had thought that he was not going to win the February 25th presidential election because of some varying factors.

But Tinubu, for a minute, never lost hope. He consistently told people that he was going to win. He candidly said, “it is my turn, and I will win.” These were the songs he sang until he won. 

It is a fact known that most politicians fear the “enemies within”, but the reverse is the case with Tinubu as the Aso Rock cabals in President Muhammadu Buhari’s government fear him. He tackled them and moved on. 

The contribution of the people he built in politics to his emergence as president-elect cannot be overemphasized. 

Hours after he was announced as the winner of the keenly-contested election, he first extended his heartfelt appreciation to the Vice President-elect, Senator Kashim Shettima, and the entire northern governors who gave their best to his ascension to the presidency. 

One of the qualities of a resounding leader is his ability to unite people and carry everybody along. That is what Tinubu started with. He called on all presidential contestants to join him in building a new Nigeria for the betterment of all and sundry. Who has ever done that in the history of our nascent democracy? 

Tinubu’s track record as governor of Lagos is a testimony of his effort for the unity and development of Nigeria. He brought capacity hands outside Lagos for the betterment of his people. He has national spread, unlike his Labor Party rival, Peter Obi, who was largely voted by people of the east and a few from the west. 

Obi, being the governor of Anambra, does not take his state as his permanent residence. He lives in Lagos—a state developed by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. I expect him to calm down his supporters, conceit defeat and join hands with the president-elect to steer the Nigerian project. 

One of the best ways to advocate peaceful coexistence and give people a sense of belonging is by giving protection to the people you govern, regardless of any differences. Tinubu’s house is a good example. He’s a Muslim. His wife and children are Christians. 

Teeming Nigerians have joined Tinubu to savour his electoral victory in the penultimate Saturday’s presidential election. But the President-Elect knows, more than anyone else, that the journey ahead will be rough, bumpy tortuous. 

He, however, should do all that it takes to actualize the visions of his ‘Renewed Hope’ campaign slogan. It is not for anything that many, including his armchair critics, regard him as a political colossus who has greatly paid his dues in helping to entrench democratic governance in Africa’s Giant.

Lawan Bukar Maigana writes from Abuja and can be reached via email: lawanbukarmaigana@gmail.com.

By Zaharaddeen Muhammed

It is a general psychological belief that individuals tend to keep repeating things that benefit them and help reduce their suffering. In politics, too, citizens believe that the essence of participating in the political life of their country is to maximise their benefits through attaining improved living conditions, say, for example, security of lives and properties, food, a better health care system, more employment opportunities, stable electricity and so on.

You don’t need statistical data to conclude that, since 1999, when Nigeria returned to a democratic system, the sufferings of Nigerians coming out to vote for a better life increased. As such, many citizens choose not to exercise their franchise as it does not benefit their lives.

Abraham Lincoln’s definition of Democracy as a government of the people by the people and for the people seems irrelevant in Nigeria because some of the leaders who served political offices in the past were suspected to be products of statistical inflation during elections, not by choice of the majority. Thus, they are not by the people; our leaders are considered to serve themselves rather than the general populace. That is why they strive to get into power by hook or crook.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) reported that during the 1999 general election, out of 58 Million Nigerians that registered to vote, only 30 million were able to vote, 42 out of 61 million registered voters voted in 2003, only 35 million out of 62 million in 2007, 39 million out of 74 million cast their votes in 2011, 29 million out of 67 million in 2015, 29 million out of 82 million in 2019 and, sadly, in the recent 2023 presidential election we have witnessed the lowest turnout whereby of all the 93.46 million eligible registered voters we have, only 24.97 million came out and cast votes.

Though many factors like; lack of voter education, electoral malpractices and vote buying during primary elections, which produce uninspiring candidates in the general elections, rigging during the general election, and the activities of political thugs are contributing factors to political absenteeism during elections, the major factor that converts responsible citizens into political absentees is bad governance resulted by poor- performing elected officials and political parties.

To respond to this signal of “not having feelings” citizens about the political affairs of our dear country, resulting from a lack of efforts from the side of our political leaders to improve people’s situation, I see it that the best way to lure people back to the polls is to promote people’s welfare. Campaigns and sensitisations are less effective these days—only action matters.

Take, for example, the issue of vote buying. You can’t convince someone who lives from hand to mouth, similarly being denied the opportunity of going to market on election day to get what to eat, not to collect a bag of grated maize for a vote—relief materials matter.

Zaharaddeen Muhammed wrote from Azare and could be reached via zahmuhaza@gmail.com.

By Ismaila Academician

Nigeria’s 2023 general elections are the first many people would describe being free and fair without any other positive collocations.

Be that as it may, many would say it has no difference from previous elections we strongly condemned. But to be fair to the discourse, it was much better than the previous ones. Nigerians have witnessed a drastic reduction in vote buying, overvoting, and voter disenfranchisement, among many things.

We saw videos and pictures of election violations nationwide on election day. Some are real, and some are mere fabrications aimed at disrupting our peace – or in the popular phrase, to tire our patience than mislead our senses. However, some of these violations are just an act of immorality from urchins, and the rest are unlawful acts from unpatriotic citizens. Unfortunately, we may end up barking at the wrong tree once we separate the two above.

This is not the first time to hear that immorality is bad for you and your community. For example, one scene might have been where area boys scared off voters that they may steal from them. However, in this case, scaring off somebody is immoral, while stealing from him is unlawful.

As we know pretty well, there are no elections free from irregularities. There are people whose work is to rig elections. We could neither be able to stop them nor avoid them. But we could learn the possible ways to surprise them.

To make my points clear that we have had free and fair elections, we know that Tinubu is contesting for the ruling party. He is from Lagos, one of the most important states in the political calculation as per Nigeria is concerned. In addition, Lagos’s current governor is also from the same ruling party and complies with the presidential candidate, as many would say.

When you combine these protons, neutrons and electrons, a powerful nuclear weapon will statutorily emerge. APC would have won Lagos presidential elections against the Labour Party. But due to free and fair elections, Peter Obi surprisingly made it, and so it was.

In conclusion, for the first time, Nigeria has free and fair elections, though with few unlawful violations of electoral rules. Those denying it are mere victims of utopianism or those who lost it, and we know failure cannot be readily accepted. To date, Donald Trump is claiming to be the winner of the last American elections.

Let peace and unity reign!

Ismaila Academician can be contacted via ismailaacademician@gmail.com.

By Ishaka Mohammed

While some people are after the quality of leadership, others are primarily concerned about the identities or affliliations of the people in positions of authority. Anyway, democracy gives us the chance to participate in the process of choosing our leaders. The responsibility of the electoral body, therefore, is to ensure free, fair and credible elections. But can this body be graded excellent by all the electorate or citizens?

The answer is no. It’s impossible for an agency like the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC), to avoid fierce criticisms. Provided some candidates lose elections, issues must be raised against the commission. However, this body can reduce doubts to the bare minimum if it scores high in terms of transparency. Sadly, it usually scores low in this aspect. 

INEC has rescheduled the governorship and state assembly elections to March 18, as against the initial date: March 11, 2023. That’s just a week difference. This decision comes with diverse consequences, but my main focus is on how it affects the suffering inflicted by the so-called cashless policy.

The Supreme Court of Nigeria ruled on Friday, March 3, 2023 that the old naira notes (N200, N500 and N1,000) remain legal tender until December 31, 2023. Many Nigerians celebrated the pronouncement, but I was unsure if President Buhari and the Central Bank of Nigeria would honour the ruling. Expectedly, it’s been almost a week since the judgment, but neither of the two has issued any statement about it. However, there’s been a sense of relief as many banks are reportedly paying and accepting the old notes.

As for the President and the CBN, I expected them to say something, maybe a few days after the governorship and state assembly elections, as they might consider the scarcity of cash as an effective measure against vote-buying. So, I was counting down to the end of our suffering—our struggle for cash—when INEC scattered my thoughts by rescheduling the elections. With this postponement, we’ll have to endure the suffering a little longer.

This cashless policy introduced by the Federal Government of Nigeria has been disastrous for the the country. Businesses and individuals are facing tough times due to the scarcity of cash in the economy. The stress of queueing at banks and POS shops, more hunger for the majority, transport costs to and from banks, a depressed market for traders (particularly those running small-scale businesses dealing in perishable goods), difficult in commuting to workplaces or schools, etc. — these are just a few of what Nigerians are enduring.

While I was preparing to go to the bank a few weeks ago, an elderly neighbour transferred N5,000 to my account to help her withdraw. It would been easier for some of us (Jaiz Bank customers) until that time. I went to the bank, fully prepared for long queues, but there was no cash. The woman’s money remained in my account for a few more days until one afternoon, when she called me on the phone (while I was at work) to send it back to her. She’d seen a POS attendant somewhere with some cash. She quickly sent her daughter home to get her debit card, but within a few minutes, the POS operator exhausted the cash by serving other customers in the queue. He charged N200 for every N1,000 withdrawn, yet the queue was long. The woman regretted leaving her card at home; she needed money to cook for her children. Before that time, she had, on two or three occasions, gone to queue at banks as early as 5 a.m. 

Talking about businesses, although some business owners have started acquiring POS machines and accepting bank transfers, bad network remains an obstacle. Besides, most business owners can’t afford such because of many reasons, including illiteracy and the smallness of their business scales. These are enough proof that Nigeria has yet to be ready for the cashless policy.

I can say that with the presence of digital financial institutions like Opay and PalmPay, multiple debit cards, and my little exposure due to education, I’m better off than millions of Nigerians in terms of the capacity to cope with the scarcity of cash in the country. Despite my obvious advantages, when a student of mine gave me N300 to buy a book for her a few days ago, I kept the cash in my pocket and transferred the same value to the bookseller. Yes, I needed the cash to buy items like onions, tomatoes, etc.

Back to the rescheduling of the elections, I don’t know if I’m being somewhat pessimistic, but this is just what I think. Neither President Buhari nor Godwin Emefiele may say anything about the Supreme Court ruling until after the governorship and state assembly elections. As a result, the postponement of these elections means that we may have to endure the suffering for another couple of days, say 11 or even more.

Ishaka Mohammed wrote from Kaduna State. He can be contacted via ishakamohammed39@gmail.com.

By Ishaka Mohammed

The Department of State Services (DSS) has launched its official social media accounts to enhance public and stakeholder engagements.

In a statement released on Monday, March 6, 2023, the Service publicised its presence on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram and dissociated itself from any handles other than the ones listed therein.

At the time of filing this report, the Twitter handle, @OfficialDSSNG, has over 44,000 followers, notable of whom are the Minister for Communications and Digital Economy, Prof. Isa Ali Pantami; the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR), Human Angle Media, and APC Nigeria.

The statement also revealed the Twitter handle of the spokesperson for the Service, Dr Peter Afunanya. “Similarly, the PRO’s Twitter handle is @DrAfunanya_PNA. Hitherto, the Service did not own or operate these handles. Its decision to operate them with effect from 6th March, 2023 is to enhance public and stakeholder engagements,” part of the statement reads.

Below are the social media handles.

Twitter: @OfficialDSSNG

Facebook: OfficialDSSNG

Instagram: @OfficialDSSNG

By Nusaiba Ibrahim Na’abba

While the lack of financial literacy has dominated a greater part of our societies, the challenges of those who are financially literate are also never-ending. By the day, life in this part of the world is continuously being sabotaged by existential financial threats. Recently, government policies have exacerbated these crises further than easing them.

The earlier piece I wrote last year wouldn’t have required a sequel so soon, but the worsening financial situation has compelled me to do so. After the article I wrote about how an average Nigerian man fares to survive worsening financial crises, I experienced a ‘financial attack’ that swallowed my hard-earned money. It was indeed a terrible experience. Like many others who lost their savings due to alleged bank-related thefts, my bank had no cogent explanations to calm me down.

Instead, one of their staff tried to insinuate how one of my family members used my debit card without my knowledge to withdraw such a huge amount, literally proving the height of their incompetence and unkindness. The only statement I heard from another staff whom I presume to be superior was only an exclamation; “Ahhh! This is serious!” And that was it. I had to console myself when I went to enquire because another lady furiously came in to complain about how the bank couldn’t account for her ₦3 million.

Now I know better the fierce heightening kickbacks and the existing polarising debates about the naira redesign and cash mop-up as the country battles to transition into a cashless nation. Nigerian citizens are never at the forefront of making these policies. Until today, there hasn’t been a clear explanation or statement on how the government is implementing this policy amid a rising population of over a whooping two hundred million people, enlisting the country as the most populous black nation in the world.

This single policy fuelling the cashless transition has incredibly negatively disrupted businesses struggling to stay afloat, crashed many on medium-scale levels and destroyed the potential of start-ups. As a result, many shop owners have closed down businesses until the economy becomes more favourable. For instance, several POS points have closed shops, and the few others willing to keep up with the new development are only faring really hard.

On commuting, stories from tricycle owners are piercing as they struggle to support their families through the business. The chain of labour attached to the tricycle business is critical. With the breakdown of larger businesses, many people who have lost their jobs resorted to the tricycle business for some solace. It’s depressing to find out how about 4 to 5 shifts are being done with only one tricycle daily. The least shifts you could find cannot be less than 3 in a day, just to find a source of livelihood for families. Now this source of livelihood has been traumatised.

On health, patients and health workers are continuously pointing fingers at each other courtesy of delayed bank transfers. In addition, some deaths that occurred in Kano hospitals have been linked to the untrustworthy nature of the transfers. On the side of market transactions, the transfers have intensified customer trust issues – even destroying an age-long relationship of trust between shop owners and loyal customers.

The height of the financial insecurity has messed with the citizens’ psychological safety and other primary needs. People are left contemplating whether the policy is for positive development or not. People’s yearnings to meet their daily needs have only soared since the implementation of the new policy began. And the recently concluded elections that stopped some daily activities heavily contributed to the current cash struggle.

Nigerian public officeholders are notable for implementing new policies, particularly towards terminating their constitutionally allotted time in office, to either weaken election processes or transfer the bulk of work to new governments. This is hence, not unexpected. Maybe, the only surprising thing about the whole scenario is how fragmented even the ruling party was on the same issue. I’ve been unable to grasp the larger picture of the policy from the President’s perspective. Perhaps, this is not the right time for a financial rebranding in the country.

Even if the current government intends to rectify issues around election malpractices, particularly vote-buying, it degenerated into something worse. The steps weren’t expected in these desperate moments and didn’t halt rigging and other discrepancies during the general elections. Besides, spaghetti and sachet detergents became alternatives. The agitations raised against implementing the policy outweigh the commendations given to the president. It has only exposed the vulnerable citizenry to more financial battles.

At this point, I wonder whether the President has fulfilled his promise of lifting many Nigerians out of poverty. Maybe, he must’ve even forgotten some of the promises he made, which is why in a recent interview before the elections, he claimed he’d done all he could for the nation. Yes, the president initiated poverty alleviation programs, one of his administration’s priorities. Still, these unforeseen policies must’ve shattered the successes of the other programs in a way.

Like all past administrations, President Muhammadu Buhari-led APC government would be weighed appropriately in all aspects when he departs later in the year. Also, because of the lack of a clear-cut pattern of party manifestos, the country isn’t sure how the President-elect from the same political party may wish to tackle the financial challenges in the country. Whether or not he’s adopting the cashless system when he assumes duty is still unknown.

Minds presently should be geared towards financial literacy and intelligence. Understanding the critical roles of these in our lives as Nigerians will undoubtedly support us in curbing our financial difficulties. Meticulous calculations and short-term and long-term plans must be implemented daily. Economic hardships have badly hit a massive population in Nigeria after being forced to fight excruciating spikes in the prices of goods and services. These aren’t good times to be hopeful of delusional government promises.

The consequence of the financial breakdown in Nigeria is enormous, and we may not be able to quantify the level of degeneration it has caused in the coming years.

Nusaiba Ibrahim Na’abba is a master’s student from the Department of Mass Communication, BUK. She is a freelance writer and researcher. She can be reached via nusaibaibrahim66@gmail.com.

By Isma’il Hashim Abubakar 

I was primarily not comfortable with the idea and bid of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which the ruling party APC had issued to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim Shettima as its presidential candidate and running mate, respectively. I held this view for several reasons, some of which were equally articulated by various analysts, commentators and opinionists.  

Like many thousands of Nigerians, particularly Muslims, I also believed that the Muslim-Muslim ticket was a necessary deceptive winning strategy rather than an intrepid move toward the triumph of Islam in a pluralistic country that has been suffering from the demographic competition. In 2015 when Muhammadu Buhari became the flag-bearer of the APC, there were indications that Bola Tinubu (a major stakeholder in the political merger that culminated in the sweeping victories of the APC during the 2015 elections) had a strong zest to be picked by Buhari as the latter’s running mate. But the old general refused to do so, obviously to carry along the Christians and canvass their support and secure their votes; no farsighted politician would risk hurting the sensibilities of even a small number of voters, let alone a big population that once claimed to possess demographic supremacy in the country’s entire population. 

The Muslim-Muslim presidency was thought by the Christian population but, in fact, to many Muslims as well to be a permanent impossibility in Nigeria’s political arena. Christians, who are a Nigerian minority as it has been proven now beyond the cobwebs of doubt, had been regarding Muslim-Muslim presidency as a unique Muslim utopian vision and a fruitless attempt of flying a kite either to see how high it would go in the sky or to gauge the direction of the wind.

Thus, Nigerian Christians never hid their opposition to the development and spared no effort to fight the bid. Churches became platforms for homilies on Christian unity and mobilization of support and strong, formidable religious support and solidarity in favour of the Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi, the only  Christian who contested against three Muslims in the race for the highest political office in the land.

The defeat of Peter Obi, as portrayed in the milieu of Christians, was akin to the fall of the rising Christendom and the failure of the Christian cause in Nigeria. Therefore,  not minding the huge irrecoverable costs of putting their eggs in one basket, Christians unanimously gathered their voting strength on their own candidate and wholeheartedly threw their support to Peter Obi. Although, like their Christian counterparts, Muslims had also used religious infrastructure to mobilize support for Bola Ahmed Tinubu and framed casting votes for him as a “political Jihad”, it was understandably impractical since Muslim votes must be inevitably divided between the three other contenders, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP and Bola Ahmed of APC.

After all, many northerners were yet sceptical of Tinubu’s nationalism and cosmopolitanism, and he was certainly viewed as an ethnic champion and a pursuer of Yoruba’s agenda. Added to this, the fact that Tinubu’s wife (and an acclaimed pastor, for that matter) and the majority (if not all) of his children are said to be Christians, some northern Muslims felt that Tinubu’s victory should in some form be considered as the triumph of Christians. As such, Muslims believed that the influence of these important organs around Tinubu must be beyond imagination. 

In the runoff to the 2023 presidential election, the Muslim society in northern Nigeria, which, as always, largely relies on the homilies of the clerical establishment in the region, became extremely divided as to which of the three candidates Muslims should support. Scholars who were loyalists to northern governors, some of whom were/are among their political appointees, had preached in favour of Tinubu and showed his election as a necessity that Muslims must wholeheartedly work for. Other scholars, most of whom were independent and largely young scholars, openly campaigned for Atiku Abubakar and warned northerners against voting for someone outside their region. The majority of scholars, however, seemed to take a neutral position and advised that Muslims could vote for any of the three candidates since each of them is a Muslim.

Despite the respected Jos-based cleric Shaykh Jingir defied this order, it was the position popularized and voiced loudly by the outspoken Izala, the proto-Salafi group which in the past used to explicitly campaign for Buhari and make it a religious obligation upon all Muslims to vote for the old general. It appeared that the group decided this time not to openly side with any of the candidates since some people had been launching attacks on the group for asking them to vote for Buhari, but then the group failed to criticize Buhari’s leadership failure. It was even argued that Izala (whose top figures are friends and loyalists to some northern governors) was inwardly supporting Tinubu’s candidature, but it was afraid of the protest and condemnation of its followers and the larger Muslim public. Thus, it decided to exhibit outward neutrality. 

Whatever the case, the Muslim-Muslim ticket has, despite these binaries, scaled through and Muslims in the North had already accepted the development as a valid testimony of their numerical supremacy in the country. And here is why.

Out of 23377466, the total valid votes cast, 17275933 represent the voting strength of Muslims who divided their votes for the three Muslim candidates. No analysis of the results of this election can ignore the possibility of overlaps of votes between Muslims and Christians in favour of each of these three candidates. But since this was very minimal, the outcomes of the elections have solidly reflected the religious affiliation and sociopolitical orientation of the voting population. After all the mobilizations in churches and social media platforms, including the voluminous circulars disseminated to all chapels and chapters by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and sister bodies, the results of the election show that Peter Obi had merely scored 6101533, fewer than 27 per cent of the whole valid votes cast. 

Of course, a case cannot be made on fixed and exact statistics on Nigeria’s population through the results of polls, but some circumstances, like elections, are yet crucial in arriving at some useful hints.  A lot of factors have combined to contribute to the rapid increase of Muslims and give them a numerical edge over their counterparts.

The Muslims, who still retain the age-old culture of growing extended families, have a prevailing polygamous lifestyle and have not, to a large extent, assimilated to the western childbearing orientation. Research has shown that Muslim women have a higher fertility rate than non-Muslim women.100 According to the data of Nigeria‘s National Population Commission, as of 2008, birthrates per woman in the North West and the North East stood at 7.3 and 7.2, respectively, while in the South, it was less than 5 children per woman (available on https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/fr222/fr222.pdf).

Although democracy is a game of numbers and it depends on the principle of “the majority carries the votes”, Nigeria’s democracy has since 1999 been characterized by zoning and rotation between the two major regions and religions  (North and South and Islam and Christianity). And although many politicians have adopted zoning and rotation in the spirit of carrying everyone along, there are places where rotation based on faith is an impossible matter. For instance, Muslims in Gombe State account for about 75 per cent, yet the state has been electing a Muslim and Christian governor and deputy governor for over two decades.

In Kaduna State,  until 2019, when Governor Nasir El-Rufai chose a Muslim deputy governor, the state has been pairing a Muslim and Christian for these two powerful ranks. Other examples can be confidently cited, and it is Muslims who make the most concession. In states like Plateau and Benue, however, which although having a sizable population of Muslims ranging from 40 per cent to above in the case of the former and about 25 per cent in respect of the latter, no Muslim has ever been selected as deputy governor since the return of the present democratic dispensation in 1999. 

Politicians do not toy with the matter of votes irrespective of who the voter is, but the 2023 presidential election will go down in history as a solid testimony establishing the fact that Muslims can determine their political fate and can win the election of the highest political office in the land without the votes of the Christians. And going by the case study of Plateau and Benue states, one may be justified if he alleges that had it been that it was Christians who possessed similar numerical strength to Muslims, no one could guarantee that they would concede the position of vice president to the Muslims.

Whatever the case, it is now clear that propaganda and powerful and frequent presence in the media is not and can never be the practical elements with which to substantiate persistent claims of being half of Nigeria’s population. 

Despite the foregoing arguments, a question that may yet beg for an answer is, does the faith of a president necessarily ensure that his coreligionists enjoy the dividends of democracy better than those with whom he does not share his faith? No clear-cut answers can be supplied to this question. But the attitudes of some presidents since 1999, starting from Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’adu’a, Goodluck Jonathan and the outgoing Muhammadu Buhari, testify that some presidents may be too partial to members of their faith to the detriment of others. 

The Muslim-Muslim presidency may benefit Nigerian Muslims through the pleasure they will derive, which is inherent in sharing the same faith with the commander-in-chief and his deputy, but also in putting an end to the fact of their disputed majority. Meanwhile, it is likely that Christians, who will henceforth restrategize to launch further onslaughts on the presidency, and of course, consistently cry wolf where there may be none at all, will, in the long run, be the greatest beneficiaries of Tinubu’s leadership. The justification for this assertion is obvious; Christians recorded bigger gains from his two terms as a governor of Lagos State and perhaps even in the succeeding years.

And despite that it is now clear that there is a wide numerical margin between Muslims and Christians, this may not be radically reflected in the constitution of the presidential cabinet; out of the 40 (or thereabout) ministers that the new president will be appointing in the next few months, it will be hard if he will summon enough courage to appoint 11 Christian ministers which is the proportionate numerical representation of Christian population supplied to us by the 2023 presidential election.

During my childhood, I used to hear Muslims say that Saudi Arabia had a diplomatic policy of raising or lowering the flag of each country according to the faith of its president. I could remember vividly when after Muslims were tired of the Obasanjo administration and Umaru Musa Yarauda, the unfavourable candidate had defeated Buhari (the saint as of then) when some people, despite the dark outcomes of the election results, expressed delight and commented that at least Nigeria’s flag would be raised in Saudi Arabia after it had been dumped on the ground for about eight years. If this diplomatic principle in Saudi Arabia is true and still valid, Tinubu’s victory will now mean that Nigeria’s flag will at least spend twelve uninterrupted years flying in the Saudi sky, and only God knows when it may be lowered. 

In a different essay I penned more than a year ago. I argued that if the situation would warrant that Tinubu’s victory would only be guaranteed if he embraced Christianity, he might end up becoming a Christian just to realize his lifetime ambition. Based on the goings-on of the present political season and the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, it is also safe to argue that despite being admittedly a nominal Muslim as shown by his self-orchestrated  Fatiha recitational suicide, Tinubu had, by picking a Muslim as his running mate, audaciously accomplished what many Muslim politicians could never mull over not to talk of giving it a try.

Ismail wrote from Souss, Southern Morocco, and can be reached at ismailiiit18@gmail.com.

By Muhammadu Sabiu 
 
Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, has drawn criticism for congratulating Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the winner of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election, on his victory last Saturday.
 
Zelensky expressed his country’s readiness to collaborate with Nigeria to address global concerns, particularly risks to food security, in a tweet on Saturday.
 
Zelensky’s tweet reads, “Congratulations @officialABAT on the victory in the election of the President of Nigeria. I look forward to close cooperation. I am convinced that the two-way interaction 🇺🇦 and 🇳🇬 will strengthen. Ukraine is determined to work together to overcome global challenges, including threats to food security!”
 
Criticising the Ukrainian president, some Nigerian Twitter users expressed their dissatisfaction over the tweet, as can be seen as follows:
 
@IjeleMela, “Corrupt people always know how to align with one another. This guy is probably very corrupt.”
 
@WeriseB, “May Putin never leave Ukraine!! Amen!”
 
@TheOliviaMead, “You will not get any money from Nigeria! Get out!”
 
“Our democracy was invaded and you are congratulating the man … on behalf of Ukrainians,” @aai_austin claimed in reply.”

A few other users have also raised Mr Zelensky for the congratulatory message to the President-elect.