Politics

By Zayyad I. Muhammad

The battle for the 2023 elections will be fascinating. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has commenced a challenging but exciting quest to be President of Nigeria in 2023. Tinubu would face five significant obstacles.

Firstly, his faith. Secondly, the choice of a running mate. Thirdly, the rugged politics the PDP would play – the PDP may present a northern presidential candidate and just ‘Siddon-look’, putting the APC on the defensive. And fourthly, how the North would vote relative to Omatekun and anti-Fulani sentiments in the southwest. And fifthly, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo supporters are on the move, solely focused on the presidency with confidence.

Tinubu, a Muslim from the Southwest, might have a free sail at home because of the complex nature of the socio-political settings of the southwest. But to appeal to other zones in the country, he will be in a quandary regarding his choice of a running mate. If he picks a Christian from the North, the bulk of APC support in the North, particularly the Muslim North, will look the other way. If he chooses a Muslim from the North, the country will undoubtedly be against a presidential Muslim-Muslim ticket. However, if the PDP picks its presidential candidate from the North, he may get some ‘relief’ in the South

Operation Amotekun and Sunday Igboho’s January 2021 one-week ultimatum to Fulani herders to vacate the southwest, Tinubu’s old statement – ‘ I don’t believe in one Nigeria’ will be another weapon that will be used against him in the North.

Tinubu’s war chest is enormous. His political tactics are shrewd; his political structure is solid, widespread, and well-organized They recently ‘bombarded’ the North and scared their opponents. Tinubu is a good candidate but has a big dilemma, as mentioned above.

On the other hand, the 2023 presidential election battle will be exciting – PDP will be on the offensive, while the ruling APC will be on the defensive. The flag bearers of either political party will also have many political hurdles to cross.

Most people expect the 2023 presidential election finale to be an Atiku vs a Tinubu game. Atiku vs Tinubu will be an interesting big game, a very BIG one. Two similar people with similar public perceptions and similar game styles; “I-know-you, you-know-me” scenario will come to play. The two have well-established political structures that can easily scare an opponent. They pay their bills; the contest would be 100 per cent politics, politics, politics- even the choice of the running mates. It will be a fascinating zero-sum game. Both have similar advantages and disadvantages.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.

By Kabiru Danguguwa

January 15, 1966, was the beginning of ethnopolitical division in Nigeria, followed by a civil war a year later. One may argue that colonialists initiated this division when they amalgamated the two, perhaps unrelated, protectorates for easy administration and exploitation in 1914. This manifested in the political parties formed on ethnic lines as a prerequisite for self-rule. Whatever the genesis of our division might be, January 15 1966, has been instrumental.

Different regimes have made several attempts, perhaps in vain, to create unity in diversity to address the above issue. Unfortunately, our democracy has not been a solution either. In a book chapter published in 2018, I argued that Nigeria’s democracy had recorded only one achievement. That’s the sustenance of “democratic rule” since 1999 without the return of the military. This is an outstanding achievement indeed. Thus, I conceptualised Nigeria’s democracy as an electoral democracy.

One of the most critical steps in electoral democracy is the transfer of power from the military to civilians, which happened in Nigeria in 1999. The remaining significant features are conducting elections as provided by the constitution and governing citizens with at least some concern of the process of law. From 1999 to 2019, we witnessed six general elections every four years as the constitution demands. The government also, to some extent, care about the citizens. Political science students may agree that we are operating above a facade democracy and, of course, below the liberal democracy found in the West. Put simply, unlike some countries in Africa and Latin America; we keep our military in the barracks and other places they constitutionally belong.

On the other side of the coin, the 23-year old Nigeria’s democracy is full of conundrums. The democracy is so illiberal that some citizens think of going back to the colonial era or the least, returning to military dictatorship. We often celebrate former military heads of state, especially when comparing them with civilian leaders. We almost unanimously prefer the military personalities of the people that ruled as military heads of state to their characters as civilian leaders. What is wrong with our democracy?

As 2023 approaches, just like the previous general elections, Nigerians are being divided over the choices of political parties and candidates that will govern the county. Several divisions emerged; some have been with us since the 1960s, while others were recently created. The North-South division might have come to stay. Southwest-Southeast has also been there for decades. There’s also Igbo versus the rest of Nigeria, mainly connected to January 15, 1966, and the Civil War.

There are at least two recently created or popularised divisions: Yoruba versus the rest of Nigeria and Yoruba versus the North. The duo, especially the former, is connected to the alleged concentration of the present government’s efforts on the welfare and well-being of Lagos and Lagosians.

Other popular divisions are APC-PDP and intra-political party rivalry between camps and political groups. I don’t believe in the religious division, for there are many Christians in the North and numerous Muslims in the South. There is Nigerian youth versus old-timers rift.

Political trends show that Northern Nigeria is more united politically. The North showcased its unity in 2015 when Boko Haram was on the verge of crippling socio-economic activities in the region. Out of optimism, people hated the regime of the day in favour of a Northern candidate. Forgive my conceptualisation of the North to include those who see themselves as Northerners.

There is a need for another unity as the region faces another severe problem mightier than pre-2015 general elections. In 2023, we must gear our unity using our strengths to present candidates who can deliver irrespective of their backgrounds and political parties. The South has never, since 1999, been united, but Yorubas have been. Look at how Southwest (Lagos), with Vice President, has been benefiting from this administration at the expense of the entire country. I firmly believe that we should only be united, not too ambitious. They say “politics is a game of numbers”, and we have the “numbers”.

Kabiru Ibrahim Danguguwa lectures at the Department of History and International Studies, Yusuf Maitama Sule University, Kano. He can be reached via kabiru.ibrahim87@gmail.com.

By Abdulrahman Yunusa

Borno State Governor Prof. Babagana Umara Zulum’s dealings with the power are enough to prove that he is an exceptional political player. He is extra cautious when sensitive issues are involved regarding the people he leads. He stood for his armless people during the tough days of Boko Haram activities and succeeded.

Unlike any other politician, Zulum neither puts his personal interest above his people’s nor allows his sentiment to overshadow his rationality. On the contrary, he often puts his people first before anything else. Thus, this aptly depicts how he resembles a statesman rather than a politician.

To attest to this, look at how he confronted several tragedies in the past. He does everything to get his people out of the cave of fear. Meanwhile, his recent assertion that says, “I’m not a politician, it’s my destiny that made me governor”, is another point of contention.

Either he said this wittingly to make an endpoint for his political voyage because he figured out something despicable attached to his govt, and he can’t withstand it. Perhaps he gets compromised as other politicians do, or he isn’t satisfied with his performance as a leader. That’s what we anticipated from President Buhari and his cohorts. But, instead, they end up disappointing us.

However, I do not support Zulum quitting politics so soon because he is the only man I have utmost conviction and respect for. And with people of his likes out of this dirty game, I can say we will be at a loss till God knows when.

Though I don’t know what the future holds for us, I’m terrified of losing such a rare gem among Nigerian politicians, for they always stand unique and prove to be the best among the rest.

I pray to have a lot of people of his personality amidst these useless politicians of ours because no matter how awful things go, they will surely change the narratives.

May Allah protect our Zulum, amin.

Abdulrahman Yunusa is a political and public affairs analyst. He writes from Bauchi and can be reached via abdulrahmanyunusa10@gmail.com.

By Ibrahim Tukur

For many years, persons with disability have been encountering various forms of discrimination from the government of all levels in Nigeria. From the onset of Nigeria’s democracy, nay, independence, there had been the executions of different, life-changing, life-saving and life-enhancing projects. However, if meticulously observed, one can see that only a very few numbers of persons with disability have benefited from it. Finally, in its bid to battle against abject poverty, and thanks to the establishment of the National Disability Commission, the current administration began to make a difference.

Persons with disability, for many years, have been using various mediums to battle against the discrimination thrown at them by the government. They clamour for their right, but their efforts yield only a slight result. Although the current administration enacted a law prohibiting discrimination against persons with disability, it has yet to be implemented in its entirety.

Disability-based discrimination is a huge problem that seems to have abounded every nook and cranny of our country. Fighting such entails a decisive element in the vicinity where the discriminations exist.

Persons with disability in Nigeria receive little concern or attention from the government regarding employment, health, education, empowerment etc. This happens as a result of the fact that persons with disability do not have a voice that will fight for them.

To eradicate this irrational discrimination, persons with disability should participate in politics. They can then play roles or be advocates of good leadership to help their kind and the general public.

Ibrahim Tukur wrote via inventorngw@gmail.com.

By Ismail Hashim Abubakar

Although the articulation of the presidential ambition of Bola Ahmed Tinubu (if actually this his real name) is seizing the attention of the public these days, Tinubu’s psyche might have likely become fraught with political confusion since 2020 when Mamman Daura gave the popular BBC interview on competence as the chief criterion for Buhari’s succession, rather than regional or ethnic consideration. 

This time around, the greed of  Bola Ahmed Tinubu seems even to surpass that of Atiku Abubakar. The man is using every channel to realise his (of course, legitimate) ambition while at the same time subjecting himself to more public shame. The man has become too wild in his bid to realise his dream of emerging as President, and there is a strong indication that he can go to any length to achieve his goal.

However, Tinubu is in a very disadvantageous position occasioned by the mixture of his ethno-religious and geographical inclination. The man is a Muslim, no one doubts, but of course, a very nominal Muslim who favours ethnic proclivities more than religious brotherhood and solidarity.

Based on clear historical evidence, to Tinubu, a Yoruba Christian is far better than a Muslim of any linguistic extraction. However, his hatred for the Hausa is beyond any human quantification. The series of brutal massacres of northern Muslims by government-backed OPC in the Southwest, especially Lagos when Tinubu was governor, still evokes gory memories in the minds of many Muslims, and this will play well as Nigeria approaches the general election in 2023.

Nevertheless, the shaky religious credentials of Tinubu, besides the status of his wife as Christian and his Christian handlers, do not at all make him a Christian or outside the fold of Islam. If that is the case, if, for example, he is nominated to contest for President, CAN and Nigerian Christians will never accept him as their representative, lest it means his running mate can be a Muslim.

Moreover, for most Muslims, especially in the North, Tinubu does not have enough moral credentials to be nominated as a Muslim candidate with any (northern) Christian candidate. Many northerners, in fact, will prefer a Christian from the South and a strong Muslim from the North to be paired to contest for the big office rather than Tinubu.

Tinubu’s visit to Kano a few days ago and his meeting with important and influential clerics in the city would not likely be sufficient to make his ambition sellable. Likewise, the many (courteous) praises showered on him by some Muslim scholars during the visit will not help him either.

So far, this is the dilemma that Tinubu has found himself in. My biggest fear, which I pray situations will not lead to that, is if all the above peculiarities tend to remain the huge stumbling block in the way of Tinubu to the Villa, and he may be left with no option but one: to publicly proclaim to accept Christianity. This decision will then mark his burial in the cemetery of Nigerian politics.

Ismail Hashim Abubakar wrote from Rabat and can be reached via ismailiiit18@gmail.com.

By Ahmad Mubarak Tanimu

It’s 2022. The twilight of Buhari’s administration is here, and the political permutations that will produce his successor are about to come bare. “Change” was the mantra in 2014. The Giwa barrack attack in March by Boko Haram, the Kibaku school girls abduction in April, the capture of Gwoza in August, the occupation of Bama in September and the ransacking of Baga in December by the terrorist group together with the over ten thousand lives lost during the year made 2014 an unforgettable year.

Goodluck Jonathan carried so many political accruals that outweighed his political assets, giving him an unfavourable political balance sheet that led to his well-anticipated defeat at the polls in 2015, becoming the first-ever one-term president in Nigeria. It’s an unusual political crash that the former presidential spokesman, Segun Adeniyi, calls ‘Against The Run of Play’.

Jonathan’s political misfortune didn’t start in 2014. He promised Nigerians a breath of fresh air after winning the 2011 elections. His major decision after the victory was fuel subsidy removal. He sent the then CBN Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi and the then Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, to beg and convince Nigerians to accept subsidy removal.

The first nail on the political coffin of Jonathan was hit on January 1, 2012, with the announcement of fuel subsidy removal, which birthed a national outrage and mass protest known today in our history books as Occupy Nigeria. After that, Boko haram insurgency, the slump of oil prices in the global market, and the PDP crisis he poorly managed sent him to an early political abyss.

Whilst all these were happening, one man positioned himself suitably and leveraged on every misstep of the President, often described as clueless. The man is Muhammadu Buhari. When the commoner was not happy, as late political siege J.S Tarka would say, Buhari offered himself as the hope, the happiness and the long-awaited missing piece of the jigsaw. Buhari moulded all Nigeria’s problems into just one thing that he kept saying repeatedly; ‘corruption, corruption, corruption’. He then placed himself as the one and only man with an incorruptible toga in the political arena that could solve Nigerian security challenges and economic turmoil.

He became president in 2015, Nigeria’s economic crisis soared, and like the sunshine, insecurity moved from east to west in the North. But unlike 2014, in 2022, no one is leveraging Buhari’s ineptitude. Though to be fair to Buhari, with Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil for export revenue and foreign consumer goods, an economic crisis will always be inevitable in the situation of a fall in the global prices of oil.

The polity in Nigeria still looks primordial. No one is ready for issue-based conversation. Even the pundits often put in more sentiment than logic in their analysis. The reaction of Buhari’s detractors shortly after Tinubu’s declaration to run for the presidency in 2023 says it all. They want him to surrender a platform he built with his sweat over some decades of enduring and surviving political persecution under Abacha, Obasanjo and Jonathan.

One doesn’t need to be a seer or bookmaker to predict that Nigerians will face Tinubu and Atiku’s choices in 2023. This could be a run that will not dig and damage the image of Buhari. Atiku may keep things ethical as he did in 2019, whilst Tinubu will primarily defend the Buhari administration throughout the campaign and make promises of improvements.

In 2014, there was an exodus from the ruling party to the opposition. Governors Kwankwaso of Kano, Wammako of Sokoto, Amaechi of Rivers, Ahmed of Kwara and Nyako of Adamawa all defected to the APC and other party chieftains like Atiku, Saraki and Baraje. The defection made the ruling party’s defeat imminent even before the elections.

On the contrary, the ruling party is taking governors to its fold this time. Governors Umuahi of Ebonyi, Matawalle of Zamfara and Ayade of Crossriver defected to the ruling APC last year. While the long-awaited APC national convention can make or mar the party’s fortune in the next general elections, the current atmosphere spells gloom for the opposition again come 2023.

Going by the non-negotiability of Nigeria’s unity as enshrined in the constitution and the unwritten political arrangement of political parties in Nigeria, the next president should be ethnically and culturally Igbo. Still, the ethnic group can only claim that stake in the PDP, a party they supported wholeheartedly since 1999. They rejected the APC, and I don’t think the party will pamper the same region with a presidential ticket in 2023. I am harbouring a feeling that an Igbo presidency is all Nigeria needs to turn its fortune around as a country. It will bring integration and a sense of belonging for all, which may translate into socioeconomic success. But that’s a conversation for another day.

Ahmad Mubarak Tanimu wrote via ahmadmubarak.tanimu243@gmail.com.

By Ishaq Habeeb 

So I made a rather lengthy comment on Prof. Farooq Kperogi’s Facebook post regarding Bola Ahmad Tinubu’s presidential candidacy. He thought it was an excellent observation and thus an independent write up. Here is part of what the comment entails: “Tinubu is too old, too inebriated, too corrupt, too unhealthy, too controversial and too unfit to lead a nation that had just survived a tsunami”. That was my first reaction to the news making the rounds on social media since Tinubu officially made his intention public to run for the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria come 2023.

A week before Tinubu’s announcement, our Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, declared his intention to run for the same office come 2023 and officially informed his principal to seek blessings as he intends to succeed him. My confusion here is: Mr Osinbajo’s declaration didn’t generate half the noise, Tinubu’s declaration is causing – although mainly in the negative. It makes me wonder, why are we all too focused solely on Tinubu? Everybody talking about what a terrible choice he’d be for the job, all attentions shifted away from Osibanjo.

Osinbanjo, Buhari’s VP since 2015, has never had any rift or imbroglio with his principal regarding the state of the nation. So now I put this to sleepy-eyed Nigerians: if Buhari is Pharaoh, doesn’t that make Osinbajo, the Vizier? Pharaoh’s Second-in-Command. That said, Osinbajo’s nonchalance to Buhari’s bad governance can only mean one of three (3) things:

1. That Osinbanjo is 100% with and actively part and parcel of the Buhari govt hence part to blame for the crass mismanagement of this country since they took over in 2015.

2. That he’s indifferent to the misruling and mismanagement of the country by his principal, so long as he remains the country’s VP and his family is safe and far away from the horrible effects of the bad governance, the Buhari regime – in which he’s the VP – has unleashed on Nigerians.

3. That he is not happy with the status quo but lacks the integrity and moral decency to do the pastoral thing and speak out against the ills or even step down, rather than feign indifference, watching the daily destruction of Nigeria and Nigerians by his principal, with himself, as second in charge.

Concluding thoughts…

Osinbajo is just as terrible as Tinubu for the job they’re eyeing, and Nigerians shouldn’t reject Taye but accept Kehinde. They’re two sides of the same coin. However, imperfect as they both are, if they’re the only two options, between the two, I’d rather go for the least, healthy, mentally and physically fit Osinbajo, over a sick, decrepitly-old, shady, and stinkingly-corrupt Tinubu. But thank God for multiple choices.

Ishaq Habeeb writes from Kano and can be reached via his Twitter handle @realishaqhabeeb.

By Abdulkadir Salaudeen

If you don’t know the nature of Nigeria’s prebendal politics, Tinubu going to Buhari is a good case study. We should open our eyes; they have started again. The excruciating suffering of the masses is never their problem. How Aso Villa has become APC Secretariat calls for serious investigation. How it has become a wrestling or boxing ring where political gladiators—like Bola Ahmad Tinubu—declare their intention to wrestle for power is not clear to us. That is sycophancy or political prebendalism, which we window-dress as a political strategy. In the political permutations of an average Nigerian politician, voters’ votes do not count; they are as useless as nursery school certificates.

It irks me, pains me, and depresses me when I see Nigerian masses willing to commit suicide on behalf of politicians for crumbs. To say concern for the masses is the least on the agenda of Nigerian politicians is being diplomatic. Do they think of us in the least? We are as good as cannon fodder in the political battlefield where absolute powers are fiercely fought for.

One funny thing I read a few days ago triggered me to smile, though, sarcastically. The Buhari Support Organization (BSO) publicly and shamelessly expressed their dissatisfaction with the President they claimed had used and abandoned them—having worked hard for his victory. If you have any difficulty understanding what ‘use-and-dump’ means in the Nigerian political dictionary, no time to understand it now. In the coming 2023 election, let’s play our politics wisely and use our voters’ cards intelligently. Do not play into the hands of power-drunk politicians so that you don’t get yourselves mired in the phenomenal cobweb of ‘use and dump.’

As if we are in the season of meeting the President to declare intention, Gov. Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State made his visit too to Aso Rock immediately after Tinubu’s—the kingmaker and ‘father of all democrats’—who is old enough to be a grandpa of this nation. We should expect many such visits. In his comical reaction to Tinubu’s infantile visitation, Kingsley Moghalu, ADC presidential aspirant, tweeted that he forgot to inform the President that he is also running. Is Moghalu trying to be comical? I like that! Moghalu chose to tell the masses, who are much of his concern. I hope other contestants follow suit.

Two things interest me in Buhari’s honest confession in the recent interview he granted Channels TV. One is how torturous it is to work for six hours as an aged president, and two, at the end of the interview, he thanked the two interviewers for punishing him. Indeed, it is punishment to ask an older man who is already in his second childhood (a state of dotage) such brainteasing questions on fantastic corruption, unprecedentedly overwhelming insecurity, dying and nose-diving economy; all these happening under his nose.

Or how better does one put it? Perhaps the President does not know that all these are happening under his nose. Please, ‘dotage’ as used above should not be seen as disparaging. We all have old parents and grandparents, and we know how they behave, which is natural. Only a few people escape this state of dotage at their old age. It shouldn’t be seen as blaming the President for what he has no control over.

It will be political harakiri—for the President or Nigerian voters—to hand over Nigeria, at this critical time, to these official septuagenarians, who are probably octogenarians. A year ago, in my article titled ‘The Trumped Trump, the Triumphant Biden, and Our Old President’, I wrote, “One of the determinants of retirement age is life expectancy which is currently 55 in Nigeria. It is 79 in the United States. This implies that gerontocracy is very bad for Nigeria; it is not too bad for the United States. In other words, if you live beyond 55 years in Nigeria, you are lucky not to have died. You can see why it is wrong to elect old people for general leadership.” 

Tinubu’s meeting with the President on his presidential ambition seems to be a political miscalculation. Referring to the President, Tinubu’s statement that “he didn’t ask me not to attempt” is as good as saying “he didn’t ask him to attempt.” In another article published in September 2020 titled “Edo No Be Lagos: Crucifying Godfatherism and the Godfathers,” I wrote, “Though the Edo’s Tinubu’s misadventure is a major setback, he has been disgraced earlier in Kogi and Ondo states, respectively. He seems to be the proverbial lost dog who refuses to listen to the hunter’s whistle. He has big self-esteem, which has ballooned to a megalomaniac proportion. It is this megalomaniacally induced posture that cost him this much. I just hope he will stop nursing the ambition of being a president in Nigeria come 2023. Though it is his constitutional right to contest, wishing him good luck will be a waste of saliva. So, I will not waste mine.”

What should be our headache now is not even politics. But politicians know the best way to distract the suffering masses from their sufferings. This time, we shall not be distracted. Like Tinubu, let’s go and inform President Buhari that all is not well. Let’s inform him that Nigeria is crying while the North is bleeding. Let’s tell him that an older man like him, Saidu Faskari, behind his backyard in Daura, removed his house’s roofing sheet (to sell) to gather N100000 to ransom his kidnapped son. Mr President, this old man was initially kidnapped and ransomed only to have his son again kidnapped for ransom.

Your Excellency, Mr President, please, if you find it difficult—not because you are not willing—to wipe away Nigeria’s tears, and you cannot stop the bleeding in the North, you can at least reach out to this old man behind your backyard in Faskari Local Government of Katsina State.

As you match towards the end of your tenure, think of the legacy you may want to be reminded of. Please, anyone who feels discomfort after reading this article should please thank me for punishing them. May God help President Buhari.

Abdulkadir Salaudeen sent this article via salahuddeenabdulkadir@gmail.com.

By Mallam Musbahu Magayaki

As the 2023 general elections knock on the fence, the Bauchi State political atmosphere is in high conditions where many political aspirants have begun revealing their interests in contesting for different elective posts.

For the governorship, several aspirants have emerged, some of whom have been in the political hubbub of Bauchi State for some time. In contrast, others have not attempted to aspire for any post before. However, most contestants have been in the state’s political arena and have brought developmental projects before demonstrating their interest in the seat.

Contrarily, one aspirant is a novice in politics, a newcomer who does not have any history of touching the lives of the masses throughout his career in civil service, despite reaching an elevated position that offers many opportunities! However, now that he is in desperate need of power, he comes with various empowerment programs fashioned to win the hearts of the gullible electorate.

Given the preceding testimony, one might ask, “Do the electorates have no relevance except on the eve of the election?” This, without a doubt, describes the selfishness of politicians who cannot mingle and improve the living standards of the masses until they have something personal to acquire.

Furthermore, the party to which this politician aspires may not win the election. The masses have already discovered the cunning movements of such politicians and are also plotting to deal with them at the polls. Therefore, the APC should be mindful of where to throw the dice come 2023.

Mallam Musbahu Magayaki writes from Sabon Fegi, Azare, Bauchi State. He can be reached via musbahumuhammad258@gmail.com.

By Nusaiba Ibrahim Na’abba

As Northern Nigeria continues to be engulfed by violent activities of terrorists by the day, the thoughts of dreadful terror acts of the famous Sunni Ali of Songhai who conquered the old, widely acknowledged historic city of Timbuktu keeps reappearing on my mind. The likes of late Muhammad Yusuf, late Abubakar Shekau and most recently Bello Turji and Dogo Gide, including some of the ‘unknown’ alleged sponsors of these activities, are no different than Sunni Ali – ‘tyrannical, cruel and merciless’.

The only probable difference is that the miniature Sunni Ali’s of our time live under the protection of a democratically elected government that vowed to protect our lives. This system we all thought would salvage us from the brink of destruction. With all the high hopes for this salvation purposely adopted to elect President Buhari into office, it is under his watch that in 2018, the Nigerian army gave an order to halt the near-arrest of late Abubakar Shekau in the depths of Sambisa Forest.

While at secondary school, it used to be quite fascinating to read and learn about the legends of some of the most powerful kings in Africa. Timbuktu’s Mensah Musa, Usmanu Bin Fodio of Sokoto, the rulers of Ghana’s Asante Kingdom and their powers on their followers, especially their strength, have always remained interesting references for their followers, especially history scholars and political leaders around the world. From leadership structure, means of sustenance, warfare and particularly military strength devoid of politicking have remained exemplary and worthy of emulation as legends have primarily documented.

Inherent in today’s Nigeria, a ravaging systemic corruption, unambitious leadership, lack of education prospects contributing to a staggering number of unemployed youths (some even throwing their hats in the ring and retiring from the state of being called youths), poor security apparatuses and myopic economic vision that continues to increase our foreign debt figures without pans of paying back. Not even the vibrancy of our historic leadership structure is being inculcated in the ‘democratic system’ we (African countries) borrowed from our colonial bosses.

Nigerians are already hopeless as the nation races towards the 2023 general elections. About two months back, I went shopping in Abubakar Rimi market (alias Sabon Gari market). All I could hear filling up the sky were words of hopelessness about the state of our dear Nigeria. “I would rather lose my voter’s card than to elect anyone in 2023”, “Our leaders will not make heaven, I tell you,” and “I’m just hoping to make it to next year alive; we are not celebrating anything” among many unending agonies. 

It is no coincidence that the President himself vindicated these agonies in an interview NTA aired on January 8, 2022. He warned his political party that “the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could win the 2023 presidential election and return to power, if the All Progressives Congress (APC), does not settle crises that have stymied the party”. Of course, a speech of such nature and coming from the President is subject to multiple interpretations from analysts, experts, particularly politicians and lay-Nigerians. However, the President has undoubtedly depicted a lack of confidence in his party to exacerbate an already hopeless situation. His first thought is PDP winning elections to continue from where they stopped – over a decade of misrule.

Indeed, it is pretty late that Nigerians realize that both APC and PDP are birds of a feather that flock together. During an interview with Talk to Aljazeera on February 15 2015, then-presidential candidate General Buhari highlighted the weakness of PDP’s 16-year-misrule. He, specifically, lamented on the rising insecurity and the deteriorating economy as oil prices dropped significantly. A year later, when he had a similar discussion with the same Aljazeera on his visit to Qatar in early 2016, he tried to admit that he hasn’t failed Nigerians – as Boko Haram held some strategic places in the outskirts of Maiduguri. Over the years of his administration, we now fully understand who has failed Nigerians the most.

Like every race to a general election in Nigeria, we all scale through hurdles and hitches. However, what is particular about the 2023 general elections is that it showcases the real wielders of the entire Nigerian system – the elites. Indeed aspiring candidates are fully aware of problems they will undoubtedly inherit from their predecessors. They also know that they may worsen existing situations in most cases. Thus, they shall race through rising insecurity than ever before, calls for secession from the Eastern part of the country, deteriorating economy, a staggering number of unemployed youths and out of school children, dilapidated schools, bloodshed, brain drain of medical personnel, weak security apparatuses, widely acknowledged electoral violence and, to cap it all, systemic corruption.

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, every political aspirant has been fully aware of the problems ahead of them, but they always divert followers’ attention by being optimistic. This is why it was pretty easy for most Nigerians to succumb to President Buhari’s change agenda.

Be it as it may and with almost nothing to redeem ourselves, expectations are meagre as the race to 2023 heats up. It’s no longer news that the country’s entire political economy continues to suffer in the hands of the few ‘powerful’. The masses do not wield enormous influence in the system that steers the affairs of Nigeria. So, we absolutely cannot change the country’s political structure without owning the system. Therefore, there is no confidence or trust in the election processes with ‘inconclusive elections’ that have come to stay with us since they favour the wielders of the system. 

Nonetheless, we will remain optimistic that Nigeria will prosper as a united and incorruptible country no matter what it takes. This storm shall pass. Borrowing from the words of South Africa’s Apartheid icon Nelson Mandela, “I am fundamentally an optimist. Whether that comes from nature or nurture, I cannot say. Part of being optimistic is keeping one’s head pointed towards the sun, one’s feet moving forward. There were many dark moments when my faith in humanity was sorely tested, but I could not give myself up to despair. That way lays defeat and death”.

Nusaiba Ibrahim Na’abba is a master’s student from the Department of Mass Communication, BUK. She is a freelance writer and researcher. She can be reached via nusaibaibrahim66@gmail.com.