By Zayyad I. Muhammad
As politicking for the 2027 elections gradually gains momentum, both new and familiar scenarios will inevitably emerge. Nigeria’s political landscape is dynamic and often shaped by geopolitical factors, and 2027 will be no exception.
The truth is, despite its internal wranglings and historical baggage, any coalition that does not have the PDP as its central pillar is unlikely to achieve the kind of national spread required to win a presidential election in Nigeria. The PDP, with its extensive grassroots network and long-standing presence across all six geopolitical zones, remains the only opposition party with a truly nationwide structure, even if its influence has somewhat waned in recent years.
Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, notable third-force figures from the 2023 elections, lack enthusiasm for any clearly defined coalition. Obi appears ready to pursue the presidency again, but the conditions that fueled his surprising 2023 performance- particularly the support from urban youth and disenchanted Christian voters— have significantly waned. This support was initially driven by fear over Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, which caused concerns among Christians. Today, that fear has faded, and ironically, the Muslim-Muslim arrangement includes more Christian participation in government than anticipated.
Kwankwaso, on the other hand, appears to have adopted a more pragmatic, localised approach- ‘ state capture. Kwankwaso’s posture suggests a strategy of quiet autonomy: “I have Kano; let me control it. I won’t interfere with you, and don’t interfere with me.” This ‘state capture’ mentality may give him relevance at the regional level but severely limits his national appeal.
President Tinubu, meanwhile, has carelessly or perhaps inadvertently squandered the political capital that the APC enjoyed in the North from 2015 to 2023. During that period, the APC could count on overwhelming support from northern voters , often to the extent that votes from a single state could nearly cancel out those from entire geopolitical zones elsewhere. That dominance was largely tied to a geopolitical strongholds strategy . Tinubu’s failure to maintain and galvanize this strategy will eat up the APC’s traditional votes in the North, which are very key for the APC’s return to a second term.
Furthermore, Tinubu has, whether knowingly or not, revitalised the dormant CPC bloc — a faction of the APC that once represented the ideological and political base of Buhari’s loyalists. Now, with the central leadership perceived as disconnected from northern interests, the CPC bloc sees an opportunity to reassert itself. In regions like the Northwest, particularly, this could lead to a realignment of loyalties, with Tinubu’s influence weakening in favor of those viewed as more authentically representing northern interests.
Nepotism is nepotism. While Buhari’s nepotism was largely regional and driven by northern priorities, Tinubu’s appears more ethnic and focused on Lagos, which could prove politically costly if not urgently recalibrated. That said, Tinubu still has time and political tools to course-correct before 2027, if he chooses to use them wisely.
The current coalition promoters, however, appear to be relying on an outdated strategy. The 2015-style bandwagon movement, built around the idea of ‘change,’ is unlikely to resonate with voters in 2027. Buhari’s eight-year presidency has left a mixed legacy, with many citizens feeling disillusioned by the unmet expectations. The old formula simply won’t work again.
In 2027, two key elements will determine electoral success, not only at the center but also in the states: substantial resources, both financial and structural , and science. The days when charisma and rhetoric alone could deliver victory are over. Any political group serious about winning must adopt a data-driven strategy. This entails conducting thorough research into voter behavior, turnout patterns, demographic shifts, and regional voting strengths.
It also requires understanding the psychology of the electorate, particularly among young voters, who now constitute a decisive segment. Apolitical political scientists, data analysts, and behavioural experts will play a more vital role than ever before. Without this approach, even the best-funded campaign could fall flat.
Finally, it is important to accept that the coalition model of 2015 and the voting behavior of 2023 are not likely to repeat themselves. Nigeria’s political terrain has evolved, so to speak . As of today , although tomorrow is uncertain, the three major blocs heading into the 2027 elections appear to be Tinubu’s APC, the PDP, and the rest . It is shaping up to be a near-zero-sum game.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.