By Mubarak Shu’aib
Ask most people why countries break apart, and many will say that different groups sharing a single country naturally dislike and distrust one another. For example, Yugoslavia fragmented because the Serbs and Croats and then the Bosnian Muslims started to fight each other after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Ethiopia recently descended into civil war because its various ethnic groups – the Tigrayans, Amharans, and those from the Sidama region- each wanted government control. So fundamental ethnic and religious differences must be the cause of all these conflicts.
Nigerians have a lot at stake in answer to this question. Our country has become increasingly divided, with ethnicity now playing a central role in debates over where the presidency should go come 2023. Could the country travail through these adversaries and polarisations?
It turns out that the differences themselves do not lead to violence. This is the finding of political scientists who have studied hundreds of ethnic conflicts worldwide. Almost all countries are multi-ethnic and religious, yet few experience crises.
For a society to fracture along identity lines, you need mouthpieces – influential people willing to make discriminatory appeals and pursue discriminatory policies in the name of a particular group. They provoke and harness feelings of fear as a way to lock in an ethnic constituency that will support their scramble power. These mouthpieces are often politicians seeking to gain or maintain control. Still, they can also include business elites (seeking brand loyalty), religious leaders (seeking to expand their followers), and media figures (seeking to grow their audience).
Separate and hostile ethnic identities don’t exist in a vacuum; they need to be crafted, and these individuals rise to do just that. They’re often at a high risk of losing power or have recently lost it. Seeing another route to securing their futures, they cynically exploit divisions to try to reassert control. We see such figures on our social media platforms (Twitter, Facebook etc.). And they’re more dangerous than what we’ve been led to believe. Experts have a term for these instigators of conflict: ethnic entrepreneurs.
The term was first used in the 1990s in Yugoslavia, but ethnic entrepreneurs have emerged many times over in all parts of the world. Though the catalyst for conflict is often ostensibly something else – the economy, freedom of religion – ethnic entrepreneurs make the fight expressly about their position and status in society. Harnessing the power of media, they work to convince citizens that they are under threat from an out-group and must band together under the entrepreneur to counter the threat. They also try to persuade those in their group, often with incendiary language, that they are superior and “deserve” to dominate. They (ethnic entrepreneurs), at rallies, symposia, places of worship and town hall meetings, cast aspersions on some ethnic and religious groups.
So why do average Nigerians let themselves be swept along this rhetoric? Perhaps surprisingly, they are often clear-eyed about ethnic entrepreneurs. They know these individuals have their agenda and are not telling the whole truth. Many Igbos did not trust, let alone love, Peter Obi, who was a running mate to Atiku Abubakar a few years earlier (2019). But they’re now willing to show support after a mounting threat to their lives, livelihoods, families, or futures. Over time, the OBidients’ rhetorics and increasing ethnic biases steadily sowed doubts. After silencing the disloyal journalists and media outlets, they plied their audiences with unrelenting messages of fear and suspicion.
These ethnic entrepreneurs are now thriving. But they emerged out of nowhere. In fact, from the #EndSARS protesters, some of these ethnic entrepreneurs have metamorphosis into #OBIdients. Unfortunately, Mr Obi is relying on their appeals to win the presidency. Albeit with a coded language.
Religion is next. To secure the support of Evangelical leaders and their increasingly mobilised voters, the ObIdients stake more and more pro-life positions. Moral imperatives and cultural identities are now, more than ever, driving voting patterns.
From appealing to core policy concerns and stoking anxiety where it’s not required, these ethnic entrepreneurs are using different tools to upset the country’s political atmosphere.
They rightly do so by exacerbating issues on social media. Deborah’s murder is a case study. Twitter exploded, Facebook went mainstream, and social media became an ever-present part of our lives.
Critically, a network of these gleeful ethnic entrepreneurs realised that they could gain ratings and influence by emphasising online tension. As a result, media titans such as SAHARA Reporters, who rely on ratings and clicks, feed us increasingly polarised content.
Into this political morass stepped in Peter Obi. In his bid for power, he realised that appeals to identity could galvanise his political base. So now, he embraced identity politics explicitly and with gusto.
Obi intuitively understood that the deep feeling of alienation among many Igbo voters could carry him to power. Although he’s too clever to factor much into the division like other ethnic entrepreneurs, he resorted to radicalising the previous administrations he’s part of as a two-time governor of Anambra State.
Although he remained an underdog in the race, his movement is a future incentive for other ethnic entrepreneurs who are now studying his playbook and will, without a doubt, use it to try to catapult themselves into the Villa in the nearest future. They will build on the momentum, and they will do so by manufacturing threats, fomenting even more ethnic fear, and convincing Igbos that they genuinely are in the midst of an existential fight. How far will these ethnic entrepreneurs go? How far will we let them?
Mubarak Shu’aib writes from Hardawa, Misau LGA, Bauchi State, via naisabur83@gmail.com.
