By Ukasha Sani
As the ruling party, the APC, launches its presidential campaign in a bid to re-elect President Bola Tinubu, the question is no longer whether Nigerians can survive the present hardship, but whether they can survive its continuation.
Based on the last three years’ trajectory, a second victory for President Tinubu will not renew hope, as we have already lost it; it will only deepen hardship. All the tragic events in the country today, from the increase in fuel prices, insecurity, kidnapping and banditry to poor economic policies, are at their worst in the last three years. He has not reformed any sector; rather, they are more like abandoned projects that have worsened under his administration.
What if Tinubu wins? Then the economic hardship we call temporary becomes permanent policy.
They [the government] have comfortably watched the naira lose its dignity, from N460/$1 as of 29th May, 2023 to N1,475/$1 today.
They have watched fuel subsidy removal turn from a textbook reform into a daily punishment, from buying petrol at N200/litre in May 2023 to N1,440/litre today.
They have watched food inflation turn the market into a place of tears, where a bag of rice sells at N65,000 today compared to N30,000 in May, 2023. We are living in an economy where a bag of rice swallows the minimum wage. This government tells us the reforms are painful but necessary. But you should ask: necessary for whom? The hardship is not shared. The political class still convoys in new SUVs, still budgets billions for renovation and entertainment.
A second term means that the model stays. No reversal, no cushion, only more lectures about patience.
And amid this suffocation, they present NELFUND as an achievement to be applauded.
Let us be clear about NELFUND. It is not a grant. It is not a scholarship. It is not free education. It is a LOAN. A debt trap dressed as help. This is the only thing this government is proudly beating its chest about, yet it exposes its entire contradiction.
You cannot deny a man the peace and means to feed his family, deny him security on his farm, deny him a stable economy to run his shop, and then call yourself a saviour because you gave his daughter a loan to pay tuition. What happens after graduation? She graduates into the same jobless economy, into the same insecurity, with a loan on her neck before her first job. This is not empowerment; it is enslaving the future to pay for the present’s failure.
A government that truly wants to educate the poor would have made education affordable, not loanable.
What if Tinubu wins? Then insecurity gets a new uniform.
Banditry is no longer an emergency; it is an industry. Kidnapping has become a multi-million-dollar enterprise.
People are being picked off the streets for ransom, picked from their homes, schools, parks and every other place, without seeing any visible effort by the government to address it. It only amplifies the PR bots that come online and tell us not to “politicise” insecurity. What it means is, if he wins, we will continue to have a government that negotiates from a position of weakness, that condemns attacks today and forgets the victims tomorrow.
Dear PR bots, the insecurity you defend today, because you are paid or promised to be paid to do so, is coming back to haunt you tomorrow. Kidnappers and bandits are not going to spare you because you are a Tinubu supporter.
What if Tinubu wins? Then partisanship becomes the constitution.
Appointments, projects, even palliatives are prioritised through ethnicity and party loyalty. Trying every possible way to conquer all 36 states, leaving no governor in the opposition. The National Assembly has become an extension of Aso Rock. A second Tinubu victory will entrench this winner-takes-all politics. It will be the final burial of independent institutions. Dissent will be called treason, and criticism will be tagged as hate speech. This is where movements like Tinubu Must Go were denied access to exercise their constitutional rights.
And what if Tinubu wins? Then corruption will be legalized by silence.
The subsidy is gone, but where did the subsidy money go? Billions saved, yet borrowing increases. Customs revenue hits record highs, yet hospitals have no drugs. Politicians with existing corruption cases are contesting elections. Under a continued Tinubu administration, accountability will remain selective. The opposition’s corrupt will be prosecuted; the ruling party’s corrupt will be given a chance to govern again.
The government has nothing to show to justify its re-election next year.
After three and a half years of serial governance disasters, it is clear this government has no clue how to tackle the challenges facing this country. They have failed, and perhaps that is why the president himself decided to send his representatives to campaign for him, because he has nothing to show to justify his re-election bid next year. That is also why his PR bots are struggling to explain his failures. This is why some Villa big boys from the North are selling him through the lens of religion and tall tales. Some of them call him “Malam, Al-Sheikh, Muhammad Bola Tinubu,” while others say he is from Kano and that even the name Tinubu is a corruption of Tanimu. It is only your favourite Sheikh who is brazen enough to tell us that the North is well secured, that all those incidents of kidnapping and banditry are mere tales and not what is actually happening. That people can travel freely in all corners of the region at night.
What if Tinubu wins? It means Nigerians must prepare for four more years of explaining to their children why they cannot afford school fees, why the lights are still off, why they must check the road before travelling, why they must take a loan to learn in their own country, and why those who stole yesterday are leading today.
After three and a half years, why do they need more time, given they’ve been the most disastrous government since amalgamation?
Sir, even a bachelor’s degree—which has technically become harder to get than winning a presidential election for some lucky individuals—only gives you a 2-year probation period to meet the required CGPA, and failure to do so will result in you being asked to leave. So why do you need more time?
Unfortunately, despite all these nerve-wracking issues, Tinubu may still win his next election, not because he deserves it, but because the opposition is too sentimental and self-centred to drop their ego for the common man.
May Nigeria prosper