By Aliyu Nuhu
Now I said Tinubu will take the APC ticket. The wait won’t be long but facts on ground support his candidacy. If it is about winning this election, APC can’t make the mistake of destroying the regional alignment that gave it power in 2015. North and Southwest can work together and cruise home to victory.
PDP will not win this election whether Buhari is popular or not. Whether his government failed to deliver on its promises and rubbished Nigeria’s economy and allowed insecurity to exacerbate people’s suffering is also immaterial. Performance is a good requirement but winning Nigeria’s election is not that straightforward because of the kind of voters we have who are largely poor and ignorant.
Democracy flourishes where there is prosperity and enlightenment among the voters. Stomach infrastructure plays a bigger role in Nigeria’s election. I am saying this to underscore the importance of having governors during presidential election. No party with a sitting governor will fail to get at least 25% of the votes of his state.
In this election APC has all the states where the numbers are concentrated and will surely deliver their states to the party. PDP has only four states in the North.
Having federal government is another big booster to APC. Security agencies always work for the government in power. There is also federal resources from CBN and NNPC and what the ministers will bring on the table from their ministries. Even INEC is working hands in gloves with federal government. APC has a big advantage there over PDP.
Some people will argue why PDP lost election in 2015 when it was in power. It was because the PDP broke to pieces before the election with all the important governors leaving the party. Jonathan was stoned in states where PDP had governors. If you don’t have governors that will work for you, forget presidential election. It is impossible to win Nigeria’s election without controlling states.
The danger of PDP relying on South East votes is that there are few voters there despite the region being notorious for voter apathy. Actions of IPOB will also stop people from voting, this is the reason why I say the region is not important in winning election. This a fact not a support for APC.
Atiku has tenaciously been in the race for Nigeria’s president and with his fierce independece and good health he will outperform other candidates. But this is a moment of truth. He is in the losing party and may have to wait for Tinubu to finish his eight year terms, besides the fact that the North cannot rule Nigeria forever. Power has to go to the South this time, and Southwest for that matter.
Last year I wrote on the biological retirement of older northern Nigerians and after 2023 if you add with years to their ages, most of them will either be in their graves or in their late seventies and eighties struggling with health issues.