By Zayyad I. Muhammad
The 2027 game will not only be interesting but will also mark a significant turning point in Nigeria’s political landscape. The voting patterns and intricate scheming that shaped the 2023 elections will not be replicated in their exact form, yet their influence will still be felt. While the key political figures who played major roles in 2023 will remain central to the unfolding drama, they will adopt new strategies, shift alliances, and engage in different forms of political maneuvering.
The battle for power will be defined by strong political platforms, influential players, a formidable war chest, scientifically crafted strategies, and carefully calculated negotiations. The presidential race, in particular, will be a high-stakes contest, shaped by a mix of ambition, ideological shifts, and pragmatic political decisions.
An incumbent seeking a second term will be a bulldozer—with an enormous war chest, a solid structure, and the full weight of state power behind them. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will fight tooth and nail to secure reelection, as mostly, any first term president will do so. However, the APC stronghold – the North, is gradually slipping from the party’s grasp. In fact, 75% of President Tinubu’s second-term resources and energy will be expended in the North—making it a crucial battleground for his team. If the Tinubus have played their card very well, the North would have been firmly in the arms.
The North will be the main battleground, while the Southwest will find itself in a dilemma—torn between supporting their own and upholding their deep-rooted tradition of rewarding excellence. The Southeast will watch from the sidelines with arms akimbo but will ultimately follow their hearts, while the South-South may take a more indifferent stance, adopting a “let’s just move” attitude.
The recent resignation of Nasir El-Rufai from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and his defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is just one of many major developments that will reshape the political terrain in the coming months and 2027 approaches. El-Rufa’i’s early defection serves as a catalyst for the unfolding political drama. The Tinubu team is fortunate to have this early warning, giving them ample time to strategize. Meanwhile, the opposition will be on the offensive, while the APC will be forced into a defensive position.
For the opposition, the biggest challenge will be balancing the interests of four key groups: the Atiku camp, the Kwankwaso camp, the Peter Obi camp, and the El-Rufai/Buhari former ministers’ camp. They must navigate these competing interests carefully if they hope to strike the winning formula.
As political camps solidify and realign, new alliances will emerge, while old ones will fracture under the weight of conflicting interests. The electorate, too, will evolve—demanding more from their leaders and scrutinizing candidates beyond party affiliations.
Ultimately, the 2027 game will be a masterclass in political strategy and power dynamics—one that students of politics, analysts, and observers alike will find fascinating to study for years to come.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980