Expert Alleges Plan to Sell NNPCL Majority Stake to Private Investors After 2027 Election

By Abdullahi Mukhtar Algasgaini

Energy policy expert Izielen Agbon claims the Tinubu government intends to reduce federal ownership of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to a minority 35% stake shortly after the 2027 general election, warning it would effectively privatise the nation’s oil resources.

Speaking at a webinar organised by the Alliance on Surviving COVID-19 and Beyond (ASCAB) and chaired by human rights lawyer Femi Falana (SAN), Agbon said the alleged plan dates back to 2023 and would see the government’s controlling stake in NNPCL transferred to private investors once electoral pressure has passed.

“The Tinubu government is planning to sell the shares of NNPCL immediately after the election,” Agbon said. “The plan they made in 2023 was that after the election, before 2030, they are going to sell the shares of NNPCL to private investors… so that the government will only own 35% of the shares.”

He described the intended model as one already applied to Nigeria LNG (NLNG), where international oil companies hold a 51% majority stake. “They call it the energy model,” he said. “They claim that the Nigerian liquefied gas model is sufficient because the government owns less than 50%.”

Agbon outlined NNPCL’s current ownership structure under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), with 50% held by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and 50% by the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, a portfolio held by the President. He said the company is presently “100% owned by the Nigerian government.”

He warned that selling shares to private hands would amount to privatising the nation’s resources, given NNPCL’s statutory role in managing government oil revenues. “If you control NNPCL and the law says NNPCL is the one in charge of all our government resources, then you actually have access to our government resources,” he said. “That will be very, very terrible for us. Because we will have no government-owned oil-producing company, no government-owned refinery… Anything belonging to NNPCL will be privatized.”

Agbon alleged that opacity has shielded similar arrangements from scrutiny, pointing to NLNG as a precedent. “Nobody hears about all this corruption with our LNG because it’s run by private sector business,” he said.

Falana, responding to the presentation, said the alleged plan was not new but should be elevated as a campaign issue ahead of the 2027 election. He also disputed aspects of the NLNG comparison, stating that Nigeria owns 49% of NLNG shares while IOCs hold 51%.

He added that while 95% of NLNG’s staff are Nigerians, dividend accounting has remained contentious. “The federal government, or rather the NNPC, collects the dividends on behalf of Nigeria. It has always stolen. That money is not paid into the federal account,” Falana alleged, citing NEITI’s repeated position that the funds ought to be paid into the federation account.

Falana said NLNG has made about $49 billion in dividends, with only about $22 billion reaching the federal government.

Agbon called for the matter to be forced onto candidates ahead of the 2027 election, alongside demands for lower petrol prices and a higher minimum wage. “There is a need for us to stop and use this opportunity, not only to fight to sell lower petrol prices, but to fight them to increase minimum wage, and to fight them to say you cannot sell the shares of NNPCL,” he said.

He described the company’s assets as the inheritance of the Nigerian people. “It’s not for sale. People are just elected to be leaders for four years, at maximum eight years. You cannot sell the whole house because you’ve been elected to serve the people for eight years.”