By Zayyad I. Muhammad
The Nigerian political landscape is never short of intrigue, speculation, and high-stakes maneuvering. The latest storm centers around Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s National Security Adviser (NSA), and allegations made by his ‘former’ ally and friend, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State.
El-Rufai has accused Ribadu of secretly positioning himself for a presidential bid in 2031, alleging that he is working to eliminate key northern politicians before the elections. In an Arise TV interview, El-Rufai said:
“Somebody wants to destroy my reputation. Why? Nuhu Ribadu wants to be president in 2031. He has to eliminate every northerner that he thinks is on the radar.”
These allegations have sparked intense debate, given Ribadu’s current position as the NSA, one of the most powerful offices in the country. The role demands absolute loyalty to the sitting president, and any sign of personal political ambition would be politically dangerous.
However, Ribadu has vehemently denied the claims, dismissing any suggestion that he is planning a presidential run in 2031. In his response, he stated:
“For the avoidance of doubt, I want to put it on record that I have never discussed running for president in 2031 with anybody.”
Currently, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is in the second year of his first term and is widely anticipated to run for reelection in 2027. If he wins, his administration would extend until 2031. Considering this timeline, it seems premature for anyone in Tinubu’s inner circle—particularly someone in such a sensitive position as the NSA—to be planning a presidential bid so early.
To be fair to Ribadu, every seasoned political observer knows he is too intelligent and experienced to make such a politically reckless move. Launching a presidential campaign while still serving in a crucial role would create unnecessary distractions, fuel rivalries, and generate deep animosities within the government. It would also call his loyalty to Tinubu into question.
So why is Ribadu being linked to 2031?
First, his close relationship with President Tinubu has earned him the title of Tinubu’s golden boy (Dan Fulani). His reputation as a disciplined, intelligent, experienced, and competent leader makes him a natural contender in any discussion about potential successors. Any rising political figure will inevitably attract speculation in a political climate where future ambitions are often carefully managed behind closed doors but widely discussed publicly by everyday people.
Second, the political class understands that succession planning is always at play, even when not publicly acknowledged. While Ribadu may not currently campaign for the presidency, political opportunities can arise unexpectedly. Nigerian politicians are known for their ability to seize the moment when the circumstances align, even if it was not originally in their plans.
Politics is unpredictable, and today’s denials can quickly become tomorrow’s declarations. Whether or not Nuhu Ribadu harbors presidential ambitions, the reality is that he possesses the qualities of a strong contender—experience, credibility, and proximity to power. If the opportunity presented itself, would he take it?
Only time will tell. But one thing is sure: The road to 2031 has already begun, and the political maneuvering will only intensify in the coming years.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja via zaymohd@yahoo.com.