By Abdurrahman Musa
As political fireworks ignite across Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general elections, one looming move threatens to shake the very foundations of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC): the speculated defection of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso—former Kano State Governor and NNPP national leader.
To some within the APC ranks, welcoming Kwankwaso appears to be a masterstroke, but others are warning because, his entry could ignite a political inferno that burns the APC’s fragile peace in Kano, upends Tinubu’s re-election ambitions, and hands the opposition [which he might later join] a golden ticket to power.
Here is why:
Kano could explode as a factional earthquake looms
It is a known fact that Kwankwaso is no ordinary politician. He is a master strategist who always thinks for himself and what would favour him. Therefore, for him to join the APC, people should know that he will not just come with followers—he commands a powerful political cult – the fiery Kwankwasiyya movement that stands in direct confrontation with the Ganduje-led APC structure in Kano. Welcoming him is like inviting a hurricane into a house of cards. The party risks a full-blown internal war, splintering into rival factions, parallel commands, and electoral sabotage that could spell doom in 2027. APC’s strength in the North’s largest voting bloc may shatter into chaos.
Collapsing NNPP could be the PDP’s resurrection.
They said politics is a game of chess. When you think in a rush and make a wrong move, you woefully lose the game. Here’s the twist: dissolving the NNPP doesn’t automatically benefit the APC. In fact, it might just revive the PDP from the political coma. Kwankwaso’s defection could enrage his loyal base, pushing them straight into the waiting arms of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and the PDP.
Mr President, do you remember 2023? The fragmented opposition in the North gifted Tinubu an edge. Destroy that balance and the pendulum swings possibly against you. Therefore, a fractured NNPP doesn’t guarantee APC victory—it may instead restore Atiku’s Northern stronghold.
A clash of presidential titans between President Tinubu vs. Senator Kwankwaso
Let us be honest—Kwankwaso isn’t joining to play a backup singer. His presidential ambition is loud, clear, and relentless. He might demand a Tinubu-Kwankwaso 2027 ticket or insist on a powerful stake in the party. If denied, he could turn against the APC from within—just like in 2019, when he was accused of deliberately undermining Atiku’s campaign in Kano while funneling resources into his gubernatorial candidate. If welcomed, Kwankwaso could shake the APC from the inside. If sidelined, he could sabotage it. History could repeat itself – this time inside the APC.
Kano youths might revolt against you
History has shown that youths are the vanguard of Kano politics. They are the ones that win you election. Currently, the streets of Kano pulse with the energy of Kwankwasiyya youth. Integrating them into the APC is not a handshake—it’s a negotiation with a volatile base. Mismanage it, and the backlash could be swift: boycotts, protests, or backing a rival candidate. The APC risks alienating the very people who once delivered it millions of votes. One misstep, the youth quake could be catastrophic.
Ganduje is the pillar—don’t shake it
In my own opinion, instead of importing instability, the APC should solidify Ganduje’s party leadership and Kano political camp. It guarantees a winning formula. Furthermore, consolidate strategic allies like Senator Barau Jibrin from Kano North and Senator Kawu Sumaila from Kano South, this offers a more convincing future and gradually win over NNPP supporters. With this, APC can present a united, formidable front—without the drama.
The ball is in your court, Mr President
Mr President, the choice is yours—so are the consequences This is no time for political gambling. The illusion of short-term gains from the Kwankwaso’s defection may cost you the presidency itself. The NNPP’s demise must not become PDP’s rebirth. The APC must learn from the PDP’s collapse—a tale of chaotic mergers and unchecked egos, in which Kwankwaso played a starring role. The hunger for Kwankwaso’s two million Kano votes is strong—but deceptive. It’s a honey trap. What looks like a prize could become a poison pill that wrecks the APC from within and opens the floodgates for a PDP resurgence.
Mr President, it’s your turn: “Emilokan“. But only if you don’t blow it. Listen to Kano. Consult the real stakeholders. Do not gamble away your second chance on a political wild card with a history of wrecking alliances from within. This is not just a political move—it’s a potential crisis in the making. Mr President don’t repeat PDP’s mistake. The voice of reason is calling. Will you listen?
Abdurrahman Musa writes from Kano. He’s a political analyst and APC stakeholder.