By Dr. Umar Musa Kallah
Nigeria’s food import bill has more than doubled under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, rising from ₦3.83 trillion in 2023 to ₦7.65 trillion in 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data.
This surge is not the result of global shocks or natural disasters alone. It stems directly from a deliberate policy of granting liberal import waivers on maize, rice, soybeans and other staples. Announced repeatedly as a measure to crash food prices, these waivers have instead achieved a far more targeted outcome: the collapse of Northern farms and agro-processing industries while delivering clear economic advantages to Southern importers, poultry conglomerates and port-based processors.
The contrast with the Buhari administration is striking. Between 2015 and 2023, agriculture was positioned as a cornerstone of national development. The Anchor Borrowers’ Programme channelled over ₦800 billion to more than four million smallholder farmers, enabling cultivation on more than five million hectares.
Rice production rose sharply from between 2.5 million and 3.7 million metric tonnes to peaks of 8.5 million to nine million metric tonnes, positioning Nigeria as Africa’s largest producer and, for a time, a net exporter in the region. The 2019 land border closure protected local value chains and revived rice milling, soybean crushing, groundnut and cotton-seed processing across the North.
More than 150 modern rice mills emerged nationwide, with over 100 located in Northern states. Oil mills in Kano, Kaduna, Gombe and Jigawa thrived on locally sourced raw materials, generating tens of thousands of direct and indirect jobs and triggering a strong post-harvest multiplier effect that spread prosperity through transport, packaging, marketing and local services.
That progress has been reversed under the current administration. Milled rice production has fallen to a projected 5.5 million metric tonnes in the 2025/26 season, down from Buhari-era peaks. According to the Rice Processors Association of Nigeria, nearly 90 of the country’s 150 rice mills have shut down since 2023, with many surviving mills operating at 30 per cent capacity.
Northern facilities have suffered the heaviest losses. Soybean, groundnut and cotton-seed crushing plants that once benefited from protected local supplies now run at below 20 per cent capacity or have been forced to liquidate assets. Fertiliser prices have escalated dramatically, with a bag of urea selling for ₦58,000 and NPK for ₦120,000 in many markets.
Diesel and pms costs have tripled following the removal of fuel subsidies. At the same time, farm-gate prices for staples such as maize have collapsed to as low as ₦38,000 per 100kg bag, often falling below the cost of production, which exceeds ₦1 million per hectare in many areas. Farmers are abandoning their fields, selling at a loss or leaving the sector entirely.
These outcomes are not accidental. The import waiver regime, which offers zero-duty and VAT exemptions on key commodities and was first announced in 2024 before being effectively extended, has operated without any parallel measures to reduce input costs or protect local processors.
Maize waivers have primarily benefited major poultry conglomerates concentrated in the South, where the feed industry is dominated by Southern operators. Soybean imports allow Southern processors to bypass local crushing altogether. Rice milling is visibly shifting southward, with imported paddy now processed in expanded Southern facilities and the finished product shipped back to Northern markets.
Northern oil millers, who lack direct access to seaports, are placed at a severe disadvantage. They cannot import raw soybeans competitively and are instead forced to purchase already-crushed crude soybean oil from Southern refiners who enjoy the logistical advantages of Lagos and Port Harcourt ports. As a result, capital that once circulated within Northern communities now flows southward to port operators, importers, logistics firms and Southern feed mills.
The regional imbalance extends far beyond farming. Unemployment has risen sharply in the North, where agriculture remains the primary source of livelihood for the majority of the population. Each closed rice mill has eliminated hundreds of direct jobs and thousands of indirect positions in farming, transport and allied services.
With nearly 90 mills out of operation, tens of thousands of Northern livelihoods have disappeared. Rural underemployment has increased as the traditional post-harvest economic surge has vanished. Northern states, already facing challenges of insecurity and weak infrastructure, are experiencing accelerated rural-urban migration, higher youth joblessness and deepening poverty. In contrast, Southern urban centres have gained from expanded import-related activities, including more jobs in ports, poultry processing, logistics and distribution services tied to cheap foreign inputs.
Other factors compound the North’s disadvantage while strengthening the South. Billions of naira invested in Northern agro-industries during the Buhari years are now stranded or liquidated, while Southern processors with direct sea access and waiver-backed imports continue to attract fresh capital and expand operations.
The classic multiplier effect that once spread prosperity from Northern harvests across the national economy has been reversed, with money draining out of the North and concentrating in Southern hands. Food security has been undermined for the entire country.
A population exceeding 230 million now depends increasingly on volatile imports for basic staples, exposing Nigeria to global price shocks, foreign exchange crises and potential supply disruptions. The South, as the hub of processing and distribution, benefits from short-term consumer price relief and sustained industrial activity.
No policy under the Tinubu administration prioritises the strengthening of local farms and industries over importation. Instead, the waiver regime actively discourages domestic production by making imported raw materials artificially cheaper than locally grown equivalents, without corresponding support for Northern farmers or processors.
Government statements continue to celebrate minor drops in consumer prices while ignoring the collapse of local capacity. The pattern is consistent and unmistakable: repeated public commitments to crash farm-gate prices, unchecked waivers and complete neglect of Northern processing infrastructure.
Nigeria cannot achieve sustainable development by weakening its primary food-producing region. The deliberate marginalisation of the North’s agricultural economy risks mass unemployment, rural depopulation, social instability and long-term national food insecurity. Northern governors, traditional rulers, farmers’ associations, rice processors and business leaders must now break their silence. The evidence shows a clear agenda to render the North economically redundant so that Southern interests can dominate value chains and resource flows.
The mills cannot remain silent and the fields cannot be left fallow indefinitely. A nation of this size, increasingly dependent on foreign food while one of its most productive regions is systematically impoverished, faces grave danger. The people of the North must act to defend their economic future before it is lost forever. This is not development. It is calculated dispossession, and it must be confronted without delay.
Dr. Umar Musa Kallah wrote in from Kano, Nigeria.